Garrett Wilson is my WR1 in this class and it’s not that close for me… am I crazy??

[ZakHH]

He would likely be a fantasy WR1 if he commanded 30% of the Jets targets in 2022.

Not necessarily.

Target share ≠ yard share ≠ TD share. A high target share combined with a low catch rate and a red zone allergy can lead to pretty underwhelming results. Especially if the team doesn't pass a ton.

Exhibit A: Jakobi Meyers, 2021 New England Patriots. In the 16 games he played, he saw 25% of all targets and even had a pretty good catch rate of 65.9%. Yet still, that was good for only 866 yards and 2 TDs. The Patriots were only 25th in the league in terms of passing attempts. Even with a 30% share and 17 games played, Meyers wouldn't have made it into WR2 territory.

The 2022 Jets I have down for 617 passing attempts. A 30% share means 185 targets. That's 10.8 per game. If you catch 60% of them (which isn't terrible for a rookie WR catching passes off a sophomore QB), that's 6.5 catches per game. That does not necessarily get you into WR1 conversation.

Even with 30% at targets, yards and TDs, Wilson would be WR#17 in my projections (still based on a 60% catch rate).

[mild]

He would likely be a fantasy WR1 if he commanded 30% of the Jets targets in 2022.

Not necessarily.

Target share ≠ yard share ≠ TD share. A high target share combined with a low catch rate and a red zone allergy can lead to pretty underwhelming results. Especially if the team doesn't pass a ton.

Exhibit A: Jakobi Meyers, 2021 New England Patriots. In the 16 games he played, he saw 25% of all targets and even had a pretty good catch rate of 65.9%. Yet still, that was good for only 866 yards and 2 TDs. The Patriots were only 25th in the league in terms of passing attempts. Even with a 30% share and 17 games played, Meyers wouldn't have made it into WR2 territory.

The 2022 Jets I have down for 617 passing attempts. A 30% share means 185 targets. That's 10.8 per game. If you catch 60% of them (which isn't terrible for a rookie WR catching passes off a sophomore QB), that's 6.5 catches per game. That does not necessarily get you into WR1 conversation.

Even with 30% at targets, yards and TDs, Wilson would be WR#17 in my projections (still based on a 60% catch rate).

Fully fair, and good reasoning on your projections.

I guess to both of our points... it would be absolutely shocking if either of the following were true:

- a rookie WR commanded a 30% target share in the offense
- the Jets suddenly transformed into a "top half of the league" passing attack

Ja'marr Chase just had one of the greatest rookie seasons of all time with a pre-built connection to his college QB, and still "only" managed 128 targets good for a 24.6% target share.

And whilst you're correct that Target share ≠ yard share ≠ TD share... we DO know that a 25% or more target share is often a sticky stat year-on-year that is a common denominator in historical WR1 seasons in the last two decades. If Garrett commanded a 30% target share, best believe, he'd be popping on our radar accordingly.

(But I think we can safely take the under on that)

[ZakHH]

My approach to player projections is:

1) I look at 7 different team categories: pass attempts, completion rate, passing yards, passing TDs, rush attempts, rushing yards, rushing TDs. I make a 1-32 ranking in all these categories.

2) I take the statistical average of the last 5 year to assign a value to each team. E.g. I ranked the Jets 12th in the league in passing attempts. Over the course of the last 5 years (with 2020 and before adjusted to 17 games per season), #12 in that category was good for 617 passing attempts.

3) Now that I know how big the pie is for each team, I assign slices (percentages) to individual players. I gave Wilson a 22.5% target share, so with 617 targets and 17 games played, that's 139 targets for him.

4) Last, I give every player an individual catch rate. RBs and TEs typically have higher catch rates than deep threats. In Garrett Wilson's case, the projected team catch/completion rate is 61.4%. I projected Wilson with a 60.0% catch rate, which turns his 139 targets into 83 catches.

At the end, every player has a projected fantasy score, so I can now rank them.

Some teams are pretty difficult to project, like the Jets. As mentioned, they have many mouths to feed, and it's not clear yet how the targets will be distributed. If Garrett Wilson (or Moore or anybody else) shows signs of becoming an alpha receiver, I will adjust the target shares accordingly. Also, if Zach Wilson shines (or struggles) during the preseason, I may adjust the relevant team rankings.

Good thing is, I got it all connected. If I bump the Jets up in the passing categories, the player values will adjust automatically. Or I can just punch in random values and see how that affects the overall rankings. E.g. if the Jets threw for 5,000 team yards (instead of the ~4,000 I have them down for), I see that that would immediately bump Garrett Wilson up 10 spots in the overall WR ranking (and Zach Wilson 6 spots in the QB ranking).

The advantage of that system is that, if I want to player (or team) up, I have to push others down. When I just assigned expected values to individual players, I ended up projecting 14 teams with 5,000+ pass yards. Not gonna happen.

I practiced my current approach the first time last year, and the results were pretty good.

[Bronco Billy]

I am a Wilson owner and believe strongly in his future. I do believe all the elements are there for him to be a future FF WR1. That said, I believe it is beyond wishful thinking to project him anywhere close to being a FF WR1 in his rookie year.

He’s going to be dealing with veteran pro CBs for the first time in his career. I don’t have any differential equations or advanced statistical research to support my assumption, but common sense tells me that it is vastly different dealing with a junior at Purdue whose future is working in an engineering office than it is dealing with a 5 year NFL seasoned CB who knows all the tricks of the trade - and it is his profession. Even mediocre starting NFL DBs are light years better than the vast majority of college DBs. There is a large learning curve there.

He’s also working with a sophomore QB who has yet to show that he’s anything better than average and who has enough quality surrounding cast that he’s likely to be distributing the ball widely unless Wilson demonstrates very early that he can readily overwhelm those vet DBs.

Getting a FF WR1 season given these associated factors is almost literally betting on lightning to strike a given spot at a given time. It may work for Marty McFly in the movies, but maybe not so much in the NFL.

[mild]

Getting a FF WR1 season given these associated factors is almost literally betting on lightning to strike a given spot at a given time. It may work for Marty McFly in the movies, but maybe not so much in the NFL.

No-one here is saying we're getting a rookie WR1 season out of Garrett Wilson. Or an 180 target season. Or a 30% target share. Just so that's clear.

Because that would be ridiculous.

I'm personally expecting some flash blowup weeks from Garrett, and probably a lot of inconsistency. I would imagine Elijah Moore will be the most consistent Jets WR to own this season, and he'll likely put up the biggest year of the three.

Zach Wilson... who knows, but at least we're going to know within a few weeks of the season starting whether he's up for this. It's all resting on him. Here's hoping he's the answer that they thought he was when they drafted him.

[Ice]

My take is Wilson owners are going to be real happy. I didn't pick high enough to get him but had I had 1.3, I would have taken him there assuming the two RB's went in the top two spots.

He is a rookie with a lot of learning in front of him but what I think I liked most about him was his acceleration. Some WR's are like Thoroughbreds and some are more like Quarter horses. Wilson reminds me of a quarter horse as he looks to be at top speed in 3 steps. He has next level quickness which is a huge separator. Reminds me a bit of Deebo in that regard.

He has all the tools to be a legit and long term WR1.

[YouMightDieTryin]

No other team has as many mouths to feed in the passing game as the Jets do. Breece Hall, Michael Carter, C.J. Uzomah, Tyler Conklin, Elijah Moore, Corey Davis, Braxtion Berrios and finally Garrett Wilson - that's 8 potential pass catchers.

2 will probably drop out of the rotation (my money is on Uzomah and Davis), but that will still leave 6. I do expect Zach Wilson to improve, but even if their passing volume increases by 10-15%, that will still make them only a mediocre passing team.

I'd take Olave over Garrett Wilson any day. The Saints will have pretty similar team stats, but the duo Olave/Thomas will have a higher combined target share than the duo Wilson/Moore. Even with Thomas healthy, I can see Olave as a fantasy WR2. If Thomas struggles, Olave could be a borderline WR1.

Unless the Jets miraculously become a top 10 passing offense, Garrett Wilson would need a 30% target share to enter fantasy WR2 conversation. The talent is there, but that still looks a bit optimistic to me.

Every team has at least 8 potential pass catchers. They're called WR/RB/and TE's. The idea that you had to write down several very gross names that don't deserve the ball is a very far stretch. Moore and Garrett will command the ball and the others will sprinkle in. As far as if they'll see accurate passes from Wilson remains to be seen.

[Jigga94]

No other team has as many mouths to feed in the passing game as the Jets do. Breece Hall, Michael Carter, C.J. Uzomah, Tyler Conklin, Elijah Moore, Corey Davis, Braxtion Berrios and finally Garrett Wilson - that's 8 potential pass catchers.

2 will probably drop out of the rotation (my money is on Uzomah and Davis), but that will still leave 6. I do expect Zach Wilson to improve, but even if their passing volume increases by 10-15%, that will still make them only a mediocre passing team.

I'd take Olave over Garrett Wilson any day. The Saints will have pretty similar team stats, but the duo Olave/Thomas will have a higher combined target share than the duo Wilson/Moore. Even with Thomas healthy, I can see Olave as a fantasy WR2. If Thomas struggles, Olave could be a borderline WR1.

Unless the Jets miraculously become a top 10 passing offense, Garrett Wilson would need a 30% target share to enter fantasy WR2 conversation. The talent is there, but that still looks a bit optimistic to me.

Every team has at least 8 potential pass catchers. They're called WR/RB/and TE's. The idea that you had to write down several very gross names that don't deserve the ball is a very far stretch. Moore and Garrett will command the ball and the others will sprinkle in. As far as if they'll see accurate passes from Wilson remains to be seen.

I laughed a bit at seeing Conklin and Uzomah but a lot @ Berrios.

That's like saying Bateman, JK and Andrews will be competing with Duvernay, Tylan Wallace, Proche, Gus Edwards and I don't even want to try to name an 8th lol

[lukkynumber13]

No other team has as many mouths to feed in the passing game as the Jets do. Breece Hall, Michael Carter, C.J. Uzomah, Tyler Conklin, Elijah Moore, Corey Davis, Braxtion Berrios and finally Garrett Wilson - that's 8 potential pass catchers.

2 will probably drop out of the rotation (my money is on Uzomah and Davis), but that will still leave 6. I do expect Zach Wilson to improve, but even if their passing volume increases by 10-15%, that will still make them only a mediocre passing team.

I'd take Olave over Garrett Wilson any day. The Saints will have pretty similar team stats, but the duo Olave/Thomas will have a higher combined target share than the duo Wilson/Moore. Even with Thomas healthy, I can see Olave as a fantasy WR2. If Thomas struggles, Olave could be a borderline WR1.

Unless the Jets miraculously become a top 10 passing offense, Garrett Wilson would need a 30% target share to enter fantasy WR2 conversation. The talent is there, but that still looks a bit optimistic to me.

Every team has at least 8 potential pass catchers. They're called WR/RB/and TE's. The idea that you had to write down several very gross names that don't deserve the ball is a very far stretch. Moore and Garrett will command the ball and the others will sprinkle in. As far as if they'll see accurate passes from Wilson remains to be seen.

THANK YOU!

[PA Godfather]

My take is Wilson owners are going to be real happy. I didn't pick high enough to get him but had I had 1.3, I would have taken him there assuming the two RB's went in the top two spots.

He is a rookie with a lot of learning in front of him but what I think I liked most about him was his acceleration. Some WR's are like Thoroughbreds and some are more like Quarter horses. Wilson reminds me of a quarter horse as he looks to be at top speed in 3 steps. He has next level quickness which is a huge separator. Reminds me a bit of Deebo in that regard.

He has all the tools to be a legit and long term WR1.

Agreed. The guy is both an outstanding athlete and a legit WR1, not simply a shirt ‘n’ shorts workout warrior who plays WR.

[Ice]

My take is Wilson owners are going to be real happy. I didn't pick high enough to get him but had I had 1.3, I would have taken him there assuming the two RB's went in the top two spots.

He is a rookie with a lot of learning in front of him but what I think I liked most about him was his acceleration. Some WR's are like Thoroughbreds and some are more like Quarter horses. Wilson reminds me of a quarter horse as he looks to be at top speed in 3 steps. He has next level quickness which is a huge separator. Reminds me a bit of Deebo in that regard.

He has all the tools to be a legit and long term WR1.

Agreed. The guy is both an outstanding athlete and a legit WR1, not simply a shirt ‘n’ shorts workout warrior who plays WR.

Welcome Godfather!

While we talk from time to time I haven't seen you on Dynasty league boards since way back when we were on Pigskin Addiction and I was doing cheat sheets which I remember you correcting me weekly!

IDP D4 is still going strong after all these years.

Don't be a Stranger!

[PA Godfather]

Welcome Godfather!

While we talk from time to time I haven't seen you on Dynasty league boards since way back when we were on Pigskin Addiction and I was doing cheat sheets which I remember you correcting me weekly!

IDP D4 is still going strong after all these years.

Don't be a Stranger!

What up, Ice! Thanks for the welcome mat, and great to cross paths on this ethereal plane once again

Me “correcting” your weekly rankings back in the day is an absolute hoot, considering I totally stink at weekly Start ‘em Sit ‘em

[ZakHH]

Every team has at least 8 potential pass catchers. They're called WR/RB/and TE's. The idea that you had to write down several very gross names that don't deserve the ball is a very far stretch. Moore and Garrett will command the ball and the others will sprinkle in. As far as if they'll see accurate passes from Wilson remains to be seen.

In 2021, the Jets had 7 players that commanded a target share of over 10% in the games they played:

Elijah Moore
Corey Davis
Jamison Crowder
Braxton Berrios
Michael Carter
Ty Johnson
Keelan Cole

None of these players was fantasy relevant.

In contrast, the Cincinnati Bengals only had 4:

Tee Higgins
Ja'Marr Chase
Tyler Boyd
C.J. Uzomah (now with the Jets)

You can laugh about it all you want, but the number of mouths to feed is a highly relevant factor when it comes to fantasy production. The most important one, if you ask me, even above team volume.

Exhibit A: the 2021 Dallas Cowboys. 3rd best passing offense, yet not a single WR1 in sight. The only fantasy-elite pass catcher they produced was TE Dalton Schultz. Why? Because they had 7 pass catchers on the roster: Lamb, Cooper, Gallup, Schultz, Wilson, Zeke and - a little under 10% - Tony Pollard.

Invest in the Jets all you want. I prefer teams like the Indianapolis Colts, who will still have a below-average passing offense, but hardly any pass catchers on the team. Michael Pittman and especially Nyheim Hines will be on almost all of my rosters this year.

As for the Jets, I said that I expect 2 players to drop out of the passing game picture. One of the 2 TEs (the early impression suggests Uzomah), and one of the WRs. We also need to see how the pass catching duties will be distributed between Breece Hall and Michael Carter. I expect Carter to be active on passing downs. But Hall is too competent as a pass catcher to not see some targets himself.

And once again: even a 30% volume share in all relevant metrics (targets, yards, TDs) would not make Garrett Wilson a WR1. The best-case scenario I can see is him being a mid-range WR2. Which certainly isn't terrible. But again - that's his ceiling.

If you are looking for a WR to deliver immediate production, take Chris Olave. Garrett Wilson can deliver mid- to long-term value, if you believe in Zach Wilson and the Jets in general.

[YouMightDieTryin]

Every team has at least 8 potential pass catchers. They're called WR/RB/and TE's. The idea that you had to write down several very gross names that don't deserve the ball is a very far stretch. Moore and Garrett will command the ball and the others will sprinkle in. As far as if they'll see accurate passes from Wilson remains to be seen.

In 2021, the Jets had 7 players that commanded a target share of over 10% in the games they played:

Elijah Moore - 2nd round
Corey Davis -overdrafted 5th overall
Jamison Crowder 4th round
Braxton Berrios 6th round from NE
Michael Carter 4th round
Ty Johnson 6th round
Keelan Cole UDFA

None of these players was fantasy relevant.

In contrast, the Cincinnati Bengals only had 4:

Tee Higgins 2nd round 33rd overall
Ja'Marr Chase 5th overall legit prospect
Tyler Boyd 2nd round
C.J. Uzomah (now with the Jets) 5th round

Again - Gross.

Let's break this down by draft capital if we want to get more context. The level of competition across the board is a complete different spectrum. So while you can bend your narrative to say what you want you're not comparing the same level of prospects. So of course it's skewed. Now bring in a 10th overall legit prospect to pair with Elijah Moore and you have two players that will command the ball over the lesser players that were distributed the ball only due to lack of other options.

Yet the weight of this all falls on the QB and if he can shoulder the load. Burrow has proven his worth, but Wilson is a huge TBD.

[dynastyninja]

Competition matters, but talent will win out maybe 75-80% of the time. I remember being concerned about OBJ after he got drafted to NYG because he had Hakeem Nicks and Reuben Randle to compete with. In the end, it didn't matter because he was better than them.

I view Wilson similarly. I'd love for him to have landed in a better spot with a better passer and less target competition, but ultimately I think talent matters more than those things for dynasty.