Mike Strachan...hype or real deal?

[Kurtrambis1]

He’s a 24 year old 7th round div 2 player with a 21 year old breakout age and 5 years in college. Sell him for literally anything lol

I get caught up in this. If I could sell for a 3rd I would but there probably isn’t any better chance a 4th or 5th round pick hits either. I’d rather take a gamble on him.

The depth chart appears to be in flux at the WR position in Indy. Pittman seems to have the path to their WR1 but who knows with him either. TY is all but done. Campbell has yet to show he can stay healthy. He’s worth a fun gamble, especially with all the positive reports.

If he does produce and flash in the first couple games of the season is it better to sell then for a 2nd? Or hold on hope he can continue to produce? That’s where I could see myself cashing out.

[Orenthal Shames]

He’s a 24 year old 7th round div 2 player with a 21 year old breakout age and 5 years in college. Sell him for literally anything lol

I get caught up in this. If I could sell for a 3rd I would but there probably isn’t any better chance a 4th or 5th round pick hits either. I’d rather take a gamble on him.

The depth chart appears to be in flux at the WR position in Indy. Pittman seems to have the path to their WR1 but who knows with him either. TY is all but done. Campbell has yet to show he can stay healthy. He’s worth a fun gamble, especially with all the positive reports.

If he does produce and flash in the first couple games of the season is it better to sell then for a 2nd? Or hold on hope he can continue to produce? That’s where I could see myself cashing out.

I'd absolutely cash out for 2nd, same as Preston Williams.

[SteelLake]

ughh... I've been monitoring him for awhile, but this thread is making me antsy.

Would you guys cut Brian Hill or Keke Coutee for him?

I was hoping to hold on to them to see Coutee's role and if Hill can be backup (I'm not a Henry owner, but still like to stash those guys at end of my roster)

[murphysxm]

If he does produce and flash in the first couple games of the season is it better to sell then for a 2nd? Or hold on hope he can continue to produce? That’s where I could see myself cashing out.

I actually lean the other way. I don't expect him to produce early in the season. If he sees the field and produces early, I think it is an extremely positive sign the Colts view him as a starter and contributor already.

[Bronco Billy]

Another day, another glowing report. If this kid’s career dies an early death the beat reporters are going to look really stupid.

They had a clip showing him abusing 1.08 Jaycee Horn and were reporting that he was getting 1st team reps today. Getting some notice and pumped up on tweets by Reggie Wayne and Chad Johnson as well.

[Jigga94]

He’s a 24 year old 7th round div 2 player with a 21 year old breakout age and 5 years in college. Sell him for literally anything lol

I hate to be the party pooper, but yeah his odds are miniscule.

I was wrong on James Robinson and Antonio Gibson, I like what I am seeing on the field so far. He is a free gamble, why not?

I mean he's got as much odds as most 3rd rounders. I'm not saying don't take the chance, just be aware of his odds and if you ever get an offer for a 2nd, I'd cash out.

Sometimes you can package enough value up to capitalize on these free adds. Usually it's nothing, but I like having the trade capital more times than not, especially if you can sell high and stash another high upside guy

[murphysxm]

Sometimes you can package enough value up to capitalize on these free adds. Usually it's nothing, but I like having the trade capital more times than not, especially if you can sell high and stash another high upside guy

Fair point, I just think I am more of a bird in the hand kind of guy over trying to strike gold over and over

[FiremanEd]

When dealing for a future pick you get the benefit of a secure asset, trade liquidity, and a roster spot. I’m a big fan of acquiring these items. No doubt come out short in various instances, but where I think the value is a satisfactory hedge, I’m happy to bail. Sometimes I can’t get out at that price and it works to my advantage (ie. James Robinson for a 2nd last season early on), or sometimes I sell and it doesn’t (Austin Ekeler). Depends on your approach, player belief, roster size, and league. Win some, lose some.

As for Strachan, I’ll hold here and see if I can sell for a 2nd when the time comes, unless he really gets me believing in the next two weeks.

[Orenthal Shames]

ughh... I've been monitoring him for awhile, but this thread is making me antsy.

Would you guys cut Brian Hill or Keke Coutee for him?

I was hoping to hold on to them to see Coutee's role and if Hill can be backup (I'm not a Henry owner, but still like to stash those guys at end of my roster)

Yes x2

[Rondalebaby]

IMO this is going to be a very interesting case of the eyeball test vs the probability guys. You can’t toss him aside based on measureables or production, so it ought to be fun to watch this shake out.

Personally I don’t think NFL coaches give a rat’s bleep about what college or division a guy played for, what his breakout age was, or much else if he can consistently beat average or better CB1 coverage, runs the right routes, makes himself a good target and catches the ball. That’s where my money is on Strachan.

Your right coaches wouldn’t care about breakout ages and divisions, but they’re a pretty good indication of the talent level.

College players that dominate at a younger age than their peers against better competition are more likely to succeed in the NFL - seems reasonable.

The hit rate for day 3 wide receivers is minuscule, my money probably isn’t on the 24 year old div 2 rookie.

Take a pick and use it as a throw in in another trade for a better player imo, the NFL isn’t a developmental league.

[Cameron Giles]

There's late round and undrafted guys every offseason who receive praise in training camps. You might get Adam Thielen, but the overwhelming odds are you're getting nothing.

I don't think "I missed out on insert a player who became an anomaly here, so I'm holding" is a great strategy most times.

But hey, if you have deep rosters... do whatever.

[Cameron Giles]

IMO this is going to be a very interesting case of the eyeball test vs the probability guys. You can’t toss him aside based on measureables or production, so it ought to be fun to watch this shake out.

Personally I don’t think NFL coaches give a rat’s bleep about what college or division a guy played for, what his breakout age was, or much else if he can consistently beat average or better CB1 coverage, runs the right routes, makes himself a good target and catches the ball. That’s where my money is on Strachan.

Your right coaches wouldn’t care about breakout ages and divisions, but they’re a pretty good indication of the talent level.

College players that dominate at a younger age than their peers against better competition are more likely to succeed in the NFL - seems reasonable.

The hit rate for day 3 wide receivers is minuscule, my money probably isn’t on the 24 year old div 2 rookie.

Take a pick and use it as a throw in in another trade for a better player imo, the NFL isn’t a developmental league.

Correct. There's certainly a scenario where Strachan overachieves and becomes a legitimately good WR, but from our view...it's largely luck. Teams have no incentive to care about the development of a 7th round pick or undrafted player unless they just set the world.

There will be another couple of late round or undrafted players every year who get good coachspeak. The overwhelming majority of those players won't go on to do anything of note. One of them might actually become Victor Cruz or Marques Colston. Good luck guessing who that is.

[Bronco Billy]

IMO this is going to be a very interesting case of the eyeball test vs the probability guys. You can’t toss him aside based on measureables or production, so it ought to be fun to watch this shake out.

Personally I don’t think NFL coaches give a rat’s bleep about what college or division a guy played for, what his breakout age was, or much else if he can consistently beat average or better CB1 coverage, runs the right routes, makes himself a good target and catches the ball. That’s where my money is on Strachan.

Your right coaches wouldn’t care about breakout ages and divisions, but they’re a pretty good indication of the talent level.

College players that dominate at a younger age than their peers against better competition are more likely to succeed in the NFL - seems reasonable.

The hit rate for day 3 wide receivers is minuscule, my money probably isn’t on the 24 year old div 2 rookie.

Take a pick and use it as a throw in in another trade for a better player imo, the NFL isn’t a developmental league.

Correct. There's certainly a scenario where Strachan overachieves and becomes a legitimately good WR, but from our view...it's largely luck. Teams have no incentive to care about the development of a 7th round pick or undrafted player unless they just set the world.

There will be another couple of late round or undrafted players every year who get good coachspeak. The overwhelming majority of those players won't go on to do anything of note. One of them might actually become Victor Cruz or Marques Colston. Good luck guessing who that is.

Using your methodology, you never give yourself a chance to roster those guys. I’d rather pay close attention to actual play than to dogmatically following a regimen that would see those guys on my opponents’ rosters.

[murphysxm]

Correct. There's certainly a scenario where Strachan overachieves and becomes a legitimately good WR, but from our view...it's largely luck. Teams have no incentive to care about the development of a 7th round pick or undrafted player unless they just set the world.

Is it not worth noting that Colts used a 7th round pick because the didn't want to the run the risk of him signing elsewhere as a UDFA? They cared enough about him to take that chance away. I would be niave to tell you I think he is a roster lock and a future star, but I also think the organization is invested in giving him every chance to succeed.

[ArrylT]

Your right coaches wouldn’t care about breakout ages and divisions, but they’re a pretty good indication of the talent level.

College players that dominate at a younger age than their peers against better competition are more likely to succeed in the NFL - seems reasonable.

The hit rate for day 3 wide receivers is minuscule, my money probably isn’t on the 24 year old div 2 rookie.

Take a pick and use it as a throw in in another trade for a better player imo, the NFL isn’t a developmental league.

Correct. There's certainly a scenario where Strachan overachieves and becomes a legitimately good WR, but from our view...it's largely luck. Teams have no incentive to care about the development of a 7th round pick or undrafted player unless they just set the world.

There will be another couple of late round or undrafted players every year who get good coachspeak. The overwhelming majority of those players won't go on to do anything of note. One of them might actually become Victor Cruz or Marques Colston. Good luck guessing who that is.

Using your methodology, you never give yourself a chance to roster those guys. I’d rather pay close attention to actual play than to dogmatically following a regimen that would see those guys on my opponents’ rosters.

Yeah that is why it is fine, imho, to do both. IE you use the majority of your roster spots for players whose odds you believer are most likely to succeed. But you leave a spot or 2 (depending on league size) for guys you believe in every year just in case (and determine when to cut bait). As we all know, you cannot hit a HR if you do not swing - but at the same time the majority of pitches you swing at should be in the strike zone.

But regardless you cannot own a Cruz or Thielen if you do not take the time to bet on the occasional long shot you have interest in - well at least not at the cheap cost - you can always buy them later for a lot more I suppose.

In any case there are always tiebreakers that can come into play. If Strachan was on say the Bengals or the Steelers would there be as much interest - doubtful. Talent can trump situation when pedigree is involved, but when dealing with players like Strachan situation is huge in terms of opportunity.