We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

[Pullo Vision]

Diontae. I know it's QB driven, but I'd love to roll with him as my #2.

I think many people are touting DJ as a clearcut WR1. I'm not. I'd be happy to have him as my WR3, but not so happy to have him as my WR1 if I have to pay WR1 prices to acquire him.

But on General Principle, I think I could go with a lineup of Chase/DJ/Kirk as my 1/2/3.
I'd be a little unsettled with DJ/Cooks/TMc. Moving DJ to the front line would worry me.

And regarding the first lineup I mentioned, I'd rather have Chase/Pittman/Kirk. I'd be very excited about that lineup.

Chase/DJ/Kirk- As long as I had good depth to cover for the Kirk gamble.
Chase/Pittman/Kirk- The Pittman/Kirk combo doesn't excite me as all. If I'm rolling 2with Pittman as my #2, I'd want a stronger WR3.
DJ/Cooks/TMc- I wouldn't be thrilled either. Long term, replacing DJ for Pittman wouldn't have me any more excited.

[Jigga94]

I own him all over the place... love the guy. I think he will get 80+ catches for 1100+ yards, and is a solid threat for double digit TDs

I think you're underestimating his 2022 production. Pittman is going to be in the hunt to be a T6WR. He's going to have a massive season.

I mean.. I feel like I'm being fairly optimistic!

If he has a line of 85/1200/12, would that likely be a top6 year?

That's 277 in PPR which was good for 8th last year, 6th in 2020

[Ice]

I think you're underestimating his 2022 production. Pittman is going to be in the hunt to be a T6WR. He's going to have a massive season.

I mean.. I feel like I'm being fairly optimistic!

If he has a line of 85/1200/12, would that likely be a top6 year?

That's 277 in PPR which was good for 8th last year, 6th in 2020

I admit he is better than I thought but he sure doesn’t flash elite traits.

I see a good WR2 WR3 in fantasy. I just don’t see a legit WR1.

[Anteaters]

I own him all over the place... love the guy. I think he will get 80+ catches for 1100+ yards, and is a solid threat for double digit TDs

I think you're underestimating his 2022 production. Pittman is going to be in the hunt to be a T6WR. He's going to have a massive season.

I mean.. I feel like I'm being fairly optimistic!

If he has a line of 85/1200/12, would that likely be a top6 year?

There we go! We have to rain positive vibe on Pittman. It's his time.

[Anteaters]

I admit he is better than I thought but he sure doesn’t flash elite traits.

I see a good WR2 WR3 in fantasy. I just don’t see a legit WR1.

I get that. In a vacuum, I'd say the same thing.

But I always consider situation in my assessments. Pittman is the WR1 on a team with a stud RB to keep the defense honest, in a scheme that projects well for the passing game, with no serious target competition, with a QB that regularly supports/creates T10WRs. Heck, even when Harry Douglas was the best option he had, Ryan turned him into a fantasy WR2. With a healthy Ryan who still has 2-3 more good years left, I think it's a lock that a WR as talented as Pittman will be T10WR material.

Of course, we're talking about dynasty and 3 years does not a career make. But I'll take a great 3 year outloook and use that to put Pittman on my teams if I can get him at a reasonable price from his owners.

[MucBuc]

Glad I was able to resist the temptation (sarcasm) to trade him for the #59 + #71 rookie pick that were offered to me last year.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Breakout-Age-Bros in shambles.

[Cameron Giles]

Breakout-Age-Bros in shambles.

I haven't done a strong deep dive on it, but I'm wondering if late breakouts are potentially offset by elite target share and/or dominator

Greg Jennings: 17th percentile (22.0), target share (98th), dominator (93rd)
Brandon Marshall: 26th percentile (21.5), target share (89th), dominator (88th)
Michael Thomas: 24th percentile (21.5), target share (78th), dominator (82nd)
Santonio Holmes: 24th percentile (21.5), target share (27th), dominator (96th)
Michael Pittman: 38th percentile (20.9), target share (79th), dominator (63rd)

Probably not an exact science, but I think combining that with decent tape study analysis can find some of the late breakout studs.

[j4pac]

Breakout-Age-Bros in shambles.

I haven't done a strong deep dive on it, but I'm wondering if late breakouts are potentially offset by elite target share and/or dominator

Greg Jennings: 17th percentile (22.0), target share (98th), dominator (93rd)
Brandon Marshall: 26th percentile (21.5), target share (89th), dominator (88th)
Michael Thomas: 24th percentile (21.5), target share (78th), dominator (82nd)
Santonio Holmes: 24th percentile (21.5), target share (27th), dominator (96th)
Michael Pittman: 38th percentile (20.9), target share (79th), dominator (63rd)

Probably not an exact science, but I think combining that with decent tape study analysis can find some of the late breakout studs.

I think that it reinforces that there are no absolutes. You have to look at the information that’s given to you and not be fixed on your ideology. Even NFL scouts fail…there is no simple guide to determining success. With Pittman, you can see the size and ability, and you can see the opportunity and production. That’s enough to make a safe assumption that he’ll be a good fantasy contributor. I said the same to those that refused to draft Damien Pierce because of whatever lame reason/metric. Refuse to draft a 4th round RB, eh?

[Cameron Giles]

Breakout-Age-Bros in shambles.

I haven't done a strong deep dive on it, but I'm wondering if late breakouts are potentially offset by elite target share and/or dominator

Greg Jennings: 17th percentile (22.0), target share (98th), dominator (93rd)
Brandon Marshall: 26th percentile (21.5), target share (89th), dominator (88th)
Michael Thomas: 24th percentile (21.5), target share (78th), dominator (82nd)
Santonio Holmes: 24th percentile (21.5), target share (27th), dominator (96th)
Michael Pittman: 38th percentile (20.9), target share (79th), dominator (63rd)

Probably not an exact science, but I think combining that with decent tape study analysis can find some of the late breakout studs.

I think that it reinforces that there are no absolutes. You have to look at the information that’s given to you and not be fixed on your ideology. Even NFL scouts fail…there is no simple guide to determining success. With Pittman, you can see the size and ability, and you can see the opportunity and production. That’s enough to make a safe assumption that he’ll be a good fantasy contributor. I said the same to those that refused to draft Damien Pierce because of whatever lame reason/metric. Refuse to draft a 4th round RB, eh?

I don't think that's an apples to apples thing. It's way easier to evaluate RBs than WRs.

[j4pac]

I haven't done a strong deep dive on it, but I'm wondering if late breakouts are potentially offset by elite target share and/or dominator

Greg Jennings: 17th percentile (22.0), target share (98th), dominator (93rd)
Brandon Marshall: 26th percentile (21.5), target share (89th), dominator (88th)
Michael Thomas: 24th percentile (21.5), target share (78th), dominator (82nd)
Santonio Holmes: 24th percentile (21.5), target share (27th), dominator (96th)
Michael Pittman: 38th percentile (20.9), target share (79th), dominator (63rd)

Probably not an exact science, but I think combining that with decent tape study analysis can find some of the late breakout studs.

I think that it reinforces that there are no absolutes. You have to look at the information that’s given to you and not be fixed on your ideology. Even NFL scouts fail…there is no simple guide to determining success. With Pittman, you can see the size and ability, and you can see the opportunity and production. That’s enough to make a safe assumption that he’ll be a good fantasy contributor. I said the same to those that refused to draft Damien Pierce because of whatever lame reason/metric. Refuse to draft a 4th round RB, eh?

I don't think that's an apples to apples thing. It's way easier to evaluate RBs than WRs.

Apparently not for some. Because many around these parts had Pierce outside of their top five RBs…even after he was the starter

[ericanadian]

Breakout-Age-Bros in shambles.

I haven't done a strong deep dive on it, but I'm wondering if late breakouts are potentially offset by elite target share and/or dominator

Greg Jennings: 17th percentile (22.0), target share (98th), dominator (93rd)
Brandon Marshall: 26th percentile (21.5), target share (89th), dominator (88th)
Michael Thomas: 24th percentile (21.5), target share (78th), dominator (82nd)
Santonio Holmes: 24th percentile (21.5), target share (27th), dominator (96th)
Michael Pittman: 38th percentile (20.9), target share (79th), dominator (63rd)

Probably not an exact science, but I think combining that with decent tape study analysis can find some of the late breakout studs.

Thomas redshirted his sophomore year and then came back and was immediately productive.
Marshall was flipped to safety in his junior year due to injuries.

[Cameron Giles]

Breakout-Age-Bros in shambles.

I haven't done a strong deep dive on it, but I'm wondering if late breakouts are potentially offset by elite target share and/or dominator

Greg Jennings: 17th percentile (22.0), target share (98th), dominator (93rd)
Brandon Marshall: 26th percentile (21.5), target share (89th), dominator (88th)
Michael Thomas: 24th percentile (21.5), target share (78th), dominator (82nd)
Santonio Holmes: 24th percentile (21.5), target share (27th), dominator (96th)
Michael Pittman: 38th percentile (20.9), target share (79th), dominator (63rd)

Probably not an exact science, but I think combining that with decent tape study analysis can find some of the late breakout studs.

Thomas redshirted his sophomore year and then came back and was immediately productive.
Marshall was flipped to safety in his junior year due to injuries.

Yeah, contextual things like this matter as well.

Hollywood Brown for example went to a small school, transferred and then was immediately productive in the Big 12 and finished with an 89th percentile target share.

[Pullo Vision]

Since 2012, 26 rookie QBs have started 10+ games (per Rewind). The results of the best WR finishes from those teams-
-1 WR finish in the top 12
-6 finished inside the top 24
-13 finished inside the top 36

If ARich starts 10+ games, there's a 50% chance Pittman is outside the top 36 among WRs.

[j4pac]

Since 2012, 26 rookie QBs have started 10+ games (per Rewind). The results of the best WR finishes from those teams-
-1 WR finish in the top 12
-6 finished inside the top 24
-13 finished inside the top 36

If ARich starts 10+ games, there's a 50% chance Pittman is outside the top 36 among WRs.

I like Pittman. He’s a really good player but I think he’s good enough that the Colts will likely try to resign. I have very little interest in holding a WR on a bottom 5 passing offense.