Rookie WR Production 2023

[ThirdWW]

Gotcha. I follow that reasoning and don’t disagree if you move fast once the offseason starts.

I do disagree with this:
“In all likelihood you're holding the go-to playmaking option for rookie year Drake Maye in 2024.”

But I may be wrong. Haha

I don't think you'll need to move fast. I think the drumbeat will grow pretty steadily until the end of April if Douglas continues on this path. He's practically the only bright spot on the team at this point.

re. Drake (or whoever's) go-to option will be in 2024... by the time the Pats pick again (top of the 2nd round) you're likely looking at that Troy Franklin / Adonai Mitchell / Ja'Corey Brooks range of WR.

MAYBE Xavier Worthy is there for them. *maybe*

Just saying - with teams reaching higher and higher for premium WR prospects in the draft, I don't think it's a slam dunk that a roster-altering guy will be there for them in the early 2nd.

Add to that, that the Patriots don't exactly have a *stellar* record for picking the correct WR.

A raw twitchy guy like Douglas after an offseason of training could be a sneaky good bet (that a lot of owners may want to make) at the price he's likely to cost. Even if he lands as more of a #2 - the whole idea of buying into a Drake or Caleb offense is this idea that they will be able to support multiple pass catchers - just like Stroud with the Tank Dell / Nico Collins / Noah Brown king-making.

Regardless, you won't have to be convinced of it if you pursue the offseason sale. You just have to hope that one of your 11 other league-mates will be.

Troy Franklin bout to take someone’s job next year.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Douglas got dropped in my league around week 4/5 and I scooped him up. Happy to hold for the price of free.

I HAD HIM and dropped him.

So open score—does an open score of 61 mean they're open 61% of the time, or something else?

I don’t think so. I just know that “league average” is 50

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/346 ... yac-scores

For every route run, Open Score assesses the likelihood a receiver would be able to complete a catch, conditional on if he were targeted. The assessment takes place a moment before pass release (0.2 seconds prior), because defenders read the shoulders of the quarterback at release and break on the targeted receiver.

[Cameron Giles]

Douglas got dropped in my league around week 4/5 and I scooped him up. Happy to hold for the price of free.

I HAD HIM and dropped him.

So open score—does an open score of 61 mean they're open 61% of the time, or something else?

No. And it doesn't mean that 73 is a better route runner than 67, unless the difference is significant. Ultimately, you just want to see players in a range where their separation is not a hindrance to fantasy production.

There's no official scale, but from looking at previous years I interpret it as

80+ = Elite
70-79 = Good
60-69 = Above average
50-59 = Average
40-49 = Mediocre/below Average
30-39 = Bad
<30 = Worse than awful

Barring a few exceptions, you really, really want to stay clear of players in the <40 range, especially if they appear there in multiple seasons.

The lower you get, the more you see players declining or struggling to stay relevant. Allen Lazard for example was a healthy scratch last week. His Open Score on the season is a career low 26. Quentin Johnston has one of the worst OS scores for a rookie ever at 26. Alec Pierce has two consecutive <40 seasons and he's been immediately out produced by Josh Downs.

It's not perfect. Between this, PFF Separation Grade and Reception Perception, all of them have flaws. It's good to cross check as much as you can to get the clearest picture. But, going through all the seasons since 2017, Open Score is very good at recognizing good and high-end separation skills and poor performance. A few oversights, but that comes with any stat.

[wickerkat1212]

Douglas got dropped in my league around week 4/5 and I scooped him up. Happy to hold for the price of free.

I HAD HIM and dropped him.

So open score—does an open score of 61 mean they're open 61% of the time, or something else?

I don’t think so. I just know that “league average” is 50

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/346 ... yac-scores

For every route run, Open Score assesses the likelihood a receiver would be able to complete a catch, conditional on if he were targeted. The assessment takes place a moment before pass release (0.2 seconds prior), because defenders read the shoulders of the quarterback at release and break on the targeted receiver.

Thanks.

[wickerkat1212]

Are you guys holding onto share of Boutte or have you already moved on? He was a late fourth-round snag, and I haven't seen much from him this year. Based on the stats in this thread, I'm guessing we can let him go?

[Cameron Giles]

Are you guys holding onto share of Boutte or have you already moved on? He was a late fourth-round snag, and I haven't seen much from him this year. Based on the stats in this thread, I'm guessing we can let him go?

He's an easy drop. The chances of him becoming relevant are ridiculously slim.

[wickerkat1212]

Are you guys holding onto share of Boutte or have you already moved on? He was a late fourth-round snag, and I haven't seen much from him this year. Based on the stats in this thread, I'm guessing we can let him go?

He's an easy drop. The chances of him becoming relevant are ridiculously slim.

Yeah, that's what I figured. Such a shame.

[Bronco Billy]

Are you guys holding onto share of Boutte or have you already moved on? He was a late fourth-round snag, and I haven't seen much from him this year. Based on the stats in this thread, I'm guessing we can let him go?

He's an easy drop. The chances of him becoming relevant are ridiculously slim.

Yeah, that's what I figured. Such a shame.

That ‘21 ankle injury looks like it might have completely derailed any career he might have had,

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Everyone in my house has Covid, so not sure if I can do an update this week. I don’t think a lot has changed anyway.

[wickerkat1212]

Everyone in my house has Covid, so not sure if I can do an update this week. I don’t think a lot has changed anyway.

No worries. Feel better.

[Jigga94]

Get well DD

The biggest changes from last week are

Tank Dell falls into the 57-66 range and will finish there after his season ending injury (why tf was he out there for that play). Not bad, but he was tracking in that top group for a minute.

Laporta is over 50 ypg now and would be the 4th best Rookie WR in terms of ypg. He also raised his YPT to 7.9, so he's about to break through that 8.0 threshold

[Cameron Giles]

Get well DD

The biggest changes from last week are

Tank Dell falls into the 57-66 range and will finish there after his season ending injury (why tf was he out there for that play). Not bad, but he was tracking in that top group for a minute.

Laporta is over 50 ypg now and would be the 4th best Rookie WR in terms of ypg. He also raised his YPT to 7.9, so he's about to break through that 8.0 threshold

I'd view him in that top group anyway. He only played 9 snaps in the game.

[gpaok]

Get well DD

The biggest changes from last week are

Tank Dell falls into the 57-66 range and will finish there after his season ending injury (why tf was he out there for that play). Not bad, but he was tracking in that top group for a minute.

Laporta is over 50 ypg now and would be the 4th best Rookie WR in terms of ypg. He also raised his YPT to 7.9, so he's about to break through that 8.0 threshold

I'd view him in that top group anyway. He only played 9 snaps in the game.

Was about to say the same! Let’s also hope he comes back strong!

DD hope you feel better!

[Tvols]

Is Covid still a thing or common cold or flu I thought Biden administration destroyed it

[Tvols]

Feel better and hope the family is doing ok