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Re: Javonte Williams Thread
Posted: Wed Oct 05, 2022 11:12 am
by FantasyFreak
j4pac wrote: ↑Wed Oct 05, 2022 8:05 am
mild wrote: ↑Wed Oct 05, 2022 4:23 am
j4pac wrote: ↑Wed Oct 05, 2022 4:04 am
When is the right time to buy? Can his value perceivably lower before next season? I guess that if the Broncos could bring in another RB in the draft. But is that more likely than Williams being ready or close to ready to start the season next year?
Someone did a lot of the work on this question today on Reddit.
https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comm ... jured_rbs/
You don't have to agree with his conclusions - but that's the full data from the last 2 years of major RB injuries and their value timelines. Very good post.
The wisdom suggests that your answer is "send Javonte offers soon".
I agree. It is a good study. Matches what made sense to me. I suppose the 25% drop can also be used to help estimate what you should expect to give
If we're talking a 25 percent drop from his first round startup, top 3ish RB rank, people can keep him. He's worth a lot less than that to me. He's worth a late first in 2023, and that's being generous considering the strength of the class.
Re: Javonte Williams Thread
Posted: Wed Oct 05, 2022 11:14 am
by Cameron Giles
lukkynumber13 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 05, 2022 10:31 am
I’d like to get your thoughts on this deal - as a rebuilding team, I traded Aiuyk/K Herbert/Dulcich, and a 4th for JW - overpay?
I think it's a good deal. Very cheap.
Re: Javonte Williams Thread
Posted: Wed Oct 05, 2022 11:16 am
by Jigga94
lukkynumber13 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 05, 2022 10:31 am
I’d like to get your thoughts on this deal - as a rebuilding team, I traded Aiuyk/K Herbert/Dulcich, and a 4th for JW - overpay?
I like this deal a lot. Its basically Aiyuk for Javonte. And Aiyuk is just another WR2/3 in a long line of 37 or so WR2s and 3s. Herbert and a 4th won't be worth much in a year+ and Dulcich is still a project at TE.
Re: Javonte Williams Thread
Posted: Wed Oct 05, 2022 1:40 pm
by Anteaters
lukkynumber13 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 05, 2022 10:31 am
I’d like to get your thoughts on this deal - as a rebuilding team, I traded Aiuyk/K Herbert/Dulcich, and a 4th for JW - overpay?
I don't think so. I've been low on Aiyuk for a while, and with a relatively young Deebo continuing to be DA MAN, there's little hope Aiyuk becomes a fantasy relevant player. I don't see long term success for Herbert, though he sure looks good now - when Montgomery returns, at best for Herbert it will be a RBBC and at worst he'll fall back to backup. If this isn't TEP, Dulcich is nothing special - if it is TEP, Dulcich is a roster filler with a dash of hope.
There's a little risk in acquiring JW, but for a non-contending team, I don't think you're giving up anything of much dynasty value.
Re: Javonte Williams Thread
Posted: Wed Oct 05, 2022 2:36 pm
by Shcritters
I agree that is a low-risk high-upside trade. Think you won that one pretty handily.
Re: Javonte Williams Thread
Posted: Wed Oct 05, 2022 2:37 pm
by lukkynumber13
Anteaters wrote: ↑Wed Oct 05, 2022 1:40 pm
lukkynumber13 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 05, 2022 10:31 am
I’d like to get your thoughts on this deal - as a rebuilding team, I traded Aiuyk/K Herbert/Dulcich, and a 4th for JW - overpay?
I don't think so. I've been low on Aiyuk for a while, and with a relatively young Deebo continuing to be DA MAN, there's little hope Aiyuk becomes a fantasy relevant player. I don't see long term success for Herbert, though he sure looks good now - when Montgomery returns, at best for Herbert it will be a RBBC and at worst he'll fall back to backup. If this isn't TEP, Dulcich is nothing special - if it is TEP, Dulcich is a roster filler with a dash of hope.
There's a little risk in acquiring JW, but for a non-contending team, I don't think you're giving up anything of much dynasty value.
This is what I was thinking.
And I’ll say, I DO like Herbert and am hopeful he gets the reigns next year. But I’m with you on Aiyuk, I think he’s pretty enmeshed in the WR3 maelstrom.
Re: Javonte Williams Thread
Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2022 6:50 am
by murphysxm
Javonte has gone from I see the upside, but having useage concerns. To know I hope hits his upside but he will never be an every down back. Still feel he is overvalued.
Re: Javonte Williams Thread
Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2022 7:02 am
by Shcritters
murphysxm wrote: ↑Thu Oct 06, 2022 6:50 am
Javonte has gone from I see the upside, but having useage concerns. To know I hope hits his upside but he will never be an every down back. Still feel he is overvalued.
I feel part of his rise was simply due to lack of young RBs and the move to RBBC. He was almost like another Duke Johnson (but on steroids) where everyone salivated at his broken tackles and high reception targets and forecasted them into the future as a RB1 role, even though he wasn't necessarily built for it. I never understood him being ranked as high as a top 5 dynasty RB.
Having said that, bummer that he got hurt, and hope heals quickly and fully.
Re: Javonte Williams Thread
Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2022 8:46 am
by Lumps
Shcritters wrote: ↑Thu Oct 06, 2022 7:02 am
murphysxm wrote: ↑Thu Oct 06, 2022 6:50 am
Javonte has gone from I see the upside, but having useage concerns. To know I hope hits his upside but he will never be an every down back. Still feel he is overvalued.
I feel part of his rise was simply due to lack of young RBs and the move to RBBC. He was almost like another Duke Johnson (but on steroids) where everyone salivated at his broken tackles and high reception targets and forecasted them into the future as a RB1 role, even though he wasn't necessarily built for it. I never understood him being ranked as high as a top 5 dynasty RB.
Having said that, bummer that he got hurt, and hope heals quickly and fully.
I would say more similar to the kind of discussion that is going on in the Ceedee Lamb thread. Not really sure who to put at this slot... and there are a lot to choose from... but someone has to be there.
Wonder if the convergence of this reality in
BOTH RB and WR at the same time is what had some players too high? For instance, it's fine for Javonte to be RB3 by default if WR1-10 are settled, because the actual ADP slot would not be as high as the WRs would push him down. But given the scenario was happening in both positions at the same time caused some flaws?
Re: Javonte Williams Thread
Posted: Fri Oct 07, 2022 2:35 am
by MacDaddy123
12 team SF TEP PPR IDP league, before the season started I traded away Javonte Williams to another team for his 2023 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round picks. Our drafts go 6 rounds because of IDP, we start 11 offense and 11 IDP.
So an early 4th round pick is about equal to a late 2nd round/early 3rd round in a league with offense only.
Meaning that you can get offensive players that go in late 2nd/early 3rd rounds in offense only leagues in the early 4th round in this league draft.
My team is garbage, as I am in a total rebuild. I will have the 1.01 in 2023, and I am looking for Bijan Robinson.
His team is now in 10th place, because he has had many injury issues, so looking at pick 1.03, 2.03, 3.03, 4.03.
That said, would you give him all 4 of his picks back for Javonte Williams + Jaylen Waddle?
The way I view this is that 1.03 ~ Waddle, then I give up a 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round pick for Javonte Williams.
Re: Javonte Williams Thread
Posted: Fri Oct 07, 2022 10:30 am
by lukkynumber13
MacDaddy123 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 07, 2022 2:35 am
12 team SF TEP PPR IDP league, before the season started I traded away Javonte Williams to another team for his 2023 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round picks. Our drafts go 6 rounds because of IDP, we start 11 offense and 11 IDP.
So an early 4th round pick is about equal to a late 2nd round/early 3rd round in a league with offense only.
Meaning that you can get offensive players that go in late 2nd/early 3rd rounds in offense only leagues in the early 4th round in this league draft.
My team is garbage, as I am in a total rebuild. I will have the 1.01 in 2023, and I am looking for Bijan Robinson.
His team is now in 10th place, because he has had many injury issues, so looking at pick 1.03, 2.03, 3.03, 4.03.
That said, would you give him all 4 of his picks back for Javonte Williams + Jaylen Waddle?
The way I view this is that 1.03 ~ Waddle, then I give up a 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round pick for Javonte Williams.
If he would do it, sure.
Re: Javonte Williams Thread
Posted: Fri Oct 07, 2022 11:44 am
by hoos89
That's not even enough for Waddle on his own. I mean if he's open to it sure, but I doubt that even gets considered.
Re: Javonte Williams Thread
Posted: Fri Oct 07, 2022 12:56 pm
by MacDaddy123
hoos89 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 07, 2022 11:44 am
That's not even enough for Waddle on his own. I mean if he's open to it sure, but I doubt that even gets considered.
You can't be serious!!!
You think Waddle has more value than picks 1.03, 2.03, 3.03, and 4.03 in a loaded 2023 draft class with SF AND IDP????
You probably have very little IDP experience, or, you must be Waddle's #1 fan!!!
Most calculators say that Waddle is roughly equal to 1.03 + 4.03.
Personally, since I am rebuilding, I would rather have London with 1.03 than Waddle, as I think that London has a higher upside, and is 3 years younger. However, the team with London is still in the run for the playoffs, so they won't trade London now.
The team with Waddle and Javonte is in 10th place with many injuries, and I own his 4 top draft picks in a 6 round draft.
My original thought was to offer him 2.01 + 2.03 for just Javonte, but then I figured that was too much for Javonte.
Oh, and for what it's worth, it's being considered. I doubt he accepts it, but I do expect a counteroffer, since it is close enough in value.
He knows how strong the 2023 draft class is.
Re: Javonte Williams Thread
Posted: Fri Oct 07, 2022 1:03 pm
by Space Cowboy
MacDaddy123 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 07, 2022 12:56 pm
hoos89 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 07, 2022 11:44 am
That's not even enough for Waddle on his own. I mean if he's open to it sure, but I doubt that even gets considered.
You can't be serious!!!
You think Waddle has more value than picks 1.03, 2.03, 3.03, and 4.03 in a loaded 2023 draft class with SF AND IDP????
You probably have very little IDP experience, or, you must be Waddle's #1 fan!!!
Most calculators say that Waddle is roughly equal to 1.03 + 4.03.
Personally, since I am rebuilding, I would rather have London with 1.03 than Waddle, as I think that London has a higher upside, and is 3 years younger. However, the team with London is still in the run for the playoffs, so they won't trade London now.
The team with Waddle and Javonte is in 10th place with many injuries, and I own his 4 top draft picks in a 6 round draft.
My original thought was to offer him 2.01 + 2.03 for just Javonte, but then I figured that was too much for Javonte.
Oh, and for what it's worth, it's being considered. I doubt he accepts it, but I do expect a counteroffer, since it is close enough in value.
He knows how strong the 2023 draft class is.
Im in two 16 team SF with full IDP 53 man rosters, Waddle is more than 1.03 and 4.03.
Re: Javonte Williams Thread
Posted: Fri Oct 07, 2022 2:57 pm
by murphysxm
I will briefly get on a soapbox. Please don't ask for opinions then do this to a person that gives their take. Accept the opinion, adjust your value if you feel it is needed and move on. Don't do this.