Cooper Kupp - Value Up?

[Ice]

That stat is not #1 in beating press coverage, it is #1 in passer rating when targeted in the slot while facing press. Off a minimum of 20 targets at that, which is an exceedingly low threshold.

Enormous difference.

The point is Kupp was the successful recipient when pressed by the defense. While not a big threshold it doesn't take D Coordinators long to determine if a player has the get off skill to beat press. Kupp obviously shows that skill set. One reason he is the highest targeted WR in the league this year is because he open and obviously getting multiple 1st reads. No chance QB rating would be good if he couldn't beat press coverage because not a chance he would be open.

If teams want to take him away then its pretty obvious they need to scheme him differently but then again that team does have multiple solid weapons so its not easy.

Kupp is simply better than most may realize. IMO he is the WR to actually own on that team. I was recently offered Woods and another good WR for Cooper and turned it down instantly even though a solid offer because I view Kupp as the legit WR1 on that team.

I think he is the best slot WR in the league.

Kupp absolutely gets open and he's a solid route runner. But, the increased targets are a result of:

1. Goff not pushing the ball downfield more.
2. Kupp is usually the first read on short/intermediate throws
3. Kupp is usually playing against zone
4. Kupp ALWAYS gets free releases

Kupp is simply in one of the most unique roles you'll see for a WR.

Nobody should complain about the fantasy points, but I don't think people realize just how much of his production is scheme and situation dependent. Without players like Woods and Cooks on the outside taking away tougher defensive matchups, it would be a serious question if he can beat #1 coverage consistently, because so far he hasn't had to face #1 coverage.

Calling him the WR1 on that team is tounge-in-cheek. I'm not calling anyone a team's WR1 when they don't see the toughest defensive assignment each game.

Don't disagree but the reality is no matter what you call him, he is the target monster in an offense that is very stable and doesn't appear to be changing anytime soon.

Fir those that own Kupp his selling price will be high. If you're buying then be prepared to pay a high price.

He can beat press coverage and gets open. One of the reasons he can beat press is if you watch him it is evident he can cut either direction out of the slot off either foot equally.

[kmbryant09]

I was recently offered Woods and another good WR for Cooper and turned it down instantly even though a solid offer because I view Kupp as the legit WR1 on that team.

Well, who was the other "good WR" in the Woods + offer?

[thebeast]

Isn’t Keenan Allen a slot receiver? And Juju was a slot receiver last year but it didn’t stop anyone from anointing him the next great thing.

Kupp is playing the role given to him and it is producing top WR numbers.

[Ice]

I was recently offered Woods and another good WR for Cooper and turned it down instantly even though a solid offer because I view Kupp as the legit WR1 on that team.

Well, who was the other "good WR" in the Woods + offer?

I will leave that to the other owner to disclose if he so desires as he is a regular and some conversations between owners should be kept in confidence.

[ericanadian]

Isn’t Keenan Allen a slot receiver? And Juju was a slot receiver last year but it didn’t stop anyone from anointing him the next great thing.

Kupp is playing the role given to him and it is producing top WR numbers.

I think the difference is that with guys like that (and Edelman, Fitz, Godwin etc) is that they play slot on three wide, but move to the outside on two wide. The Rams play three wide nearly 100% of their snaps, so Kupp is always in the slot.

[ericanadian]

That stat is not #1 in beating press coverage, it is #1 in passer rating when targeted in the slot while facing press. Off a minimum of 20 targets at that, which is an exceedingly low threshold.

Enormous difference.

The point is Kupp was the successful recipient when pressed by the defense. While not a big threshold it doesn't take D Coordinators long to determine if a player has the get off skill to beat press. Kupp obviously shows that skill set. One reason he is the highest targeted WR in the league this year is because he open and obviously getting multiple 1st reads. No chance QB rating would be good if he couldn't beat press coverage because not a chance he would be open.

If teams want to take him away then its pretty obvious they need to scheme him differently but then again that team does have multiple solid weapons so its not easy.

Kupp is simply better than most may realize. IMO he is the WR to actually own on that team. I was recently offered Woods and another good WR for Cooper and turned it down instantly even though a solid offer because I view Kupp as the legit WR1 on that team.

I think he is the best slot WR in the league.

Kupp absolutely gets open and he's a solid route runner. But, the increased targets are a result of:

1. Goff not pushing the ball downfield more.
2. Kupp is usually the first read on short/intermediate throws
3. Kupp is usually playing against zone
4. Kupp ALWAYS gets free releases

Kupp is simply in one of the most unique roles you'll see for a WR.

Nobody should complain about the fantasy points, but I don't think people realize just how much of his production is scheme and situation dependent. Without players like Woods and Cooks on the outside taking away tougher defensive matchups, it would be a serious question if he can beat #1 coverage consistently, because so far he hasn't had to face #1 coverage.

Calling him the WR1 on that team is tounge-in-cheek. I'm not calling anyone a team's WR1 when they don't see the toughest defensive assignment each game.

I’m not sure number two is accurate and the fact that you make point number one suggests that you don’t really believe that either. Points three and four are true of most slot receivers. The “special” part of Kupp’s usage is that the Rams almost always run three wide, so Kupp never has to move outside, so doesn’t face tough coverage because DCs aren’t going to assign their top DB to guard the underneath route unless Tim Tebow is the QB.

[ArrylT]

(Fantasy) Success from the slot does seem to be on the rise

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000 ... nfl-season

Of the 10 listed only Tyreek Hill (injury) and Adam Humphries are off to bad starts.

Every other WR listed as a Slot WR in this article is in the top 36 in typical PPR atm

Kupp - 3
Allen - 6
Boyd - 11
Thielen - 12
Edelman - 16
Fitzgerald - 17
JJSS - 23
Landry - 32

[hoos89]

I’m not sure number two is accurate and the fact that you make point number one suggests that you don’t really believe that either. Points three and four are true of most slot receivers. The “special” part of Kupp’s usage is that the Rams almost always run three wide, so Kupp never has to move outside, so doesn’t face tough coverage because DCs aren’t going to assign their top DB to guard the underneath route unless Tim Tebow is the QB.

Kupp's average air yards per target = 7.4, which is quite low (although surprisingly similar to Woods at 8 this season).

[Cameron Giles]

Isn’t Keenan Allen a slot receiver? And Juju was a slot receiver last year but it didn’t stop anyone from anointing him the next great thing.

Kupp is playing the role given to him and it is producing top WR numbers.

Last two years for Allen:

2019 - 43%
2018 - 45%

[Cameron Giles]

I’m not sure number two is accurate and the fact that you make point number one suggests that you don’t really believe that either. Points three and four are true of most slot receivers. The “special” part of Kupp’s usage is that the Rams almost always run three wide, so Kupp never has to move outside, so doesn’t face tough coverage because DCs aren’t going to assign their top DB to guard the underneath route unless Tim Tebow is the QB.

Exactly! You're making my point for me. I think Kupp is a good WR, but it's hard for me to value him as a WR1 in dynasty because his role is so dependent on having other WR's take away better coverage in 3WR sets and an unsustainable volume to the slot. Of course you're going to enjoy the production, but it's entirely realistic that it will evaporate if the Rams don't keep Woods and Cooks long-term, or he goes to a team where there are not players who can allow him to play the slot full time.

Example: If Kupp is the best player on the team without other respectable WR's and plays full-time slot, defenses can play closer to the short/intermediate area of the field and relax on outside coverage.

Look at this route chart from Week 3




Cooks is consistently pulling WR1 coverage away from the play downfield, allowing Kupp to feast on short/intermediate routes with free releases and zone coverage. This isn't to say that Kupp would turn into a bum without someone like him on the field, but the defensive coverage would get a lot tougher if you don't have to respect those threats in 3WR.

[ericanadian]

I’m not sure number two is accurate and the fact that you make point number one suggests that you don’t really believe that either. Points three and four are true of most slot receivers. The “special” part of Kupp’s usage is that the Rams almost always run three wide, so Kupp never has to move outside, so doesn’t face tough coverage because DCs aren’t going to assign their top DB to guard the underneath route unless Tim Tebow is the QB.

Exactly! You're making my point for me. I think Kupp is a good WR, but it's hard for me to value him as a WR1 in dynasty because his role is so dependent on having other WR's take away better coverage in 3WR sets and an unsustainable volume to the slot. Of course you're going to enjoy the production, but it's entirely realistic that it will evaporate if the Rams don't keep Woods and Cooks long-term, or he goes to a team where there are not players who can allow him to play the slot full time.

Example: If Kupp is the best player on the team without other respectable WR's and plays full-time slot, defenses can play closer to the short/intermediate area of the field and relax on outside coverage.

Look at this route chart from Week 3




Cooks is consistently pulling WR1 coverage away from the play downfield, allowing Kupp to feast on short/intermediate routes with free releases and zone coverage. This isn't to say that Kupp would turn into a bum without someone like him on the field, but the defensive coverage would get a lot tougher if you don't have to respect those threats in 3WR.

We’ve already seen what Kupp can do without Cooks. In 2017, week 10 he effectively took over the slot role. From that point until the end of the year he was on pace for over 1,000 yards as a rookie with Goff learning a new system. They mostly had Watkins (who was mostly ineffective) and Woods, but they were still cycling both those guys out with some frequency for guys like Josh Reynolds, Pharoah Cooper and the other Mike Thomas. If the Rams lose Cooks, they will bring someone else in to fill that role. I think you’re overstating the risk there.

I also have no idea what you’re talking about where “there are not players to allow him to play the slot full time”... There are systems where he wouldn’t play slot full time, but I’m not sure poor quality outside receivers suddenly makes Kupp a guy that teams are going to move to the outside. His skillset is the slot.

[hoos89]

Watkins also drew coverage though (he just didn't beat it).

[cdubbaya]

I've been targeting Kupp and have a trade offer extended that gives Sutton + 2020 2nd + 2021 1st. I think that will get it done, and seems right in terms of value. Note - the Kupp owner is rebuilding and I'm contending.

[hoos89]

I've been targeting Kupp and have a trade offer extended that gives Sutton + 2020 2nd + 2021 1st. I think that will get it done, and seems right in terms of value. Note - the Kupp owner is rebuilding and I'm contending.

I like Sutton, but I probably would want that 2021 1st to be a mid-2020 1st in order to consider.

[cdubbaya]

I've been targeting Kupp and have a trade offer extended that gives Sutton + 2020 2nd + 2021 1st. I think that will get it done, and seems right in terms of value. Note - the Kupp owner is rebuilding and I'm contending.

I like Sutton, but I probably would want that 2021 1st to be a mid-2020 1st in order to consider.

You might be right - the deal is still open.

But I really like Sutton's potential. He's bigger, faster, more agile and is climbing the charts (non-ppr #10) despite sharing the load with Sanders and almost equal the stats as Kupp minus the TDs despite almost half of the receptions. I may be giving up a better and younger WR1 on top of picks.

Buttom line is I love Kupp this year, but I see it as long-term sacrifice for sure.