Javonte Williams Thread

[halfbaked88]

Tried to send Breece Hall away in a rebuild for Kyle Pitts to a contender that has JT, Swift, Monty and Javonte.

He countered with Javonte+mid 2nd for Hall. Or Javonte for Garrett Wilson.....

With what we know about ACLs, I don't want to wait until 2024 for Javonte to be truly 100% ... All of this is making me realize how volatile it is to be holding significant value at the RB position. Ideally I'd rather be overstocked at QB/WR and have 1 "win-now" RB,neven if he's older, and a couple of 2nd-round/3rd-pound pick level RBs to simply occupy an RB2 slot.

[Orenthal Shames]

Tried to send Breece Hall away in a rebuild for Kyle Pitts to a contender that has JT, Swift, Monty and Javonte.

He countered with Javonte+mid 2nd for Hall. Or Javonte for Garrett Wilson.....

With what we know about ACLs, I don't want to wait until 2024 for Javonte to be truly 100% ... All of this is making me realize how volatile it is to be holding significant value at the RB position. Ideally I'd rather be overstocked at QB/WR and have 1 "win-now" RB,neven if he's older, and a couple of 2nd-round/3rd-pound pick level RBs to simply occupy an RB2 slot.

Easier said than done, but I try to cash RBs at max value, even if I'm a contender. Sell stud RBs after their first contract.

[Lumps]

I won the title last year and have been getting hit by injuries. Javonte was the next one and certainly the largest.

I just swapped him for Miles who was on a bottom team that was probably happy to be rid of the points coming in.

As has been said he might be back mid next season playing. No guarantee of that. He likely won’t be 100% at that time even if so. He may not come back to his original self at all, but likely not by next season. So that is 2 years gone. Things aren’t going well in Denver as is, and who knows going forward.

Cut my losses. Such a shame.

[halfbaked88]

I won the title last year and have been getting hit by injuries. Javonte was the next one and certainly the largest.

I just swapped him for Miles who was on a bottom team that was probably happy to be rid of the points coming in.

As has been said he might be back mid next season playing. No guarantee of that. He likely won’t be 100% at that time even if so. He may not come back to his original self at all, but likely not by next season. So that is 2 years gone. Things aren’t going well in Denver as is, and who knows going forward.

Cut my losses. Such a shame.

What's bad is people don't need Javonte to just come back as his original self. His original self wasn't actually producing to what he was worth. This was the year he was actually supposed to grow into his mostly perceived value... Now he's got to dodge next year's draft, hope Russ and the coaching staff start clicking, and avoid any injury setbacks. And the new Broncos owners, management and coaching who's to say they don't do something dumb and draft an RB next year.

I'm not gonna knock Miles Sanders. Of course you'd want someone better, but there's only so much time before you need to submit a Line-Up for next week. Plus a player is only worth what you can actually get in each league ultimately. He is a usable RB this year. A 3rd would have went a long way to make me feel better about it, but it's negligible.

[FantasyFreak]

I won the title last year and have been getting hit by injuries. Javonte was the next one and certainly the largest.

I just swapped him for Miles who was on a bottom team that was probably happy to be rid of the points coming in.

As has been said he might be back mid next season playing. No guarantee of that. He likely won’t be 100% at that time even if so. He may not come back to his original self at all, but likely not by next season. So that is 2 years gone. Things aren’t going well in Denver as is, and who knows going forward.

Cut my losses. Such a shame.

What's bad is people don't need Javonte to just come back as his original self. His original self wasn't actually producing to what he was worth. This was the year he was actually supposed to grow into his mostly perceived value... Now he's got to dodge next year's draft, hope Russ and the coaching staff start clicking, and avoid any injury setbacks. And the new Broncos owners, management and coaching who's to say they don't do something dumb and draft an RB next year.

I'm not gonna knock Miles Sanders. Of course you'd want someone better, but there's only so much time before you need to submit a Line-Up for next week. Plus a player is only worth what you can actually get in each league ultimately. He is a usable RB this year. A 3rd would have went a long way to make me feel better about it, but it's negligible.

It wouldn't even be dumb though. They don't have a RB under contract beyond Javonte next year. They could bring back a 30 year old Melvin Gordon, and/or Mike Boone, but is that really enough? This is a team who pushed all their chips in when they went for Russ. By draft time, they won't have a great read on what Javonte will be next year. They need to address the RB position, and that's one of the reasons Javonte's value is in danger of falling further.

[mild]

It wouldn't even be dumb though. They don't have a RB under contract beyond Javonte next year. They could bring back a 30 year old Melvin Gordon, and/or Mike Boone, but is that really enough? This is a team who pushed all their chips in when they went for Russ. By draft time, they won't have a great read on what Javonte will be next year. They need to address the RB position, and that's one of the reasons Javonte's value is in danger of falling further.

It's a great RB class next year, too.

If one of my favourite RB's gets scooped by DEN, I will actively be targeting them as a fade to Javonte. I will gladly take that discount if any of my league-mates apply one.

I don't foresee JW making true noise again until either late in 2023 or more likely 2024.

[halfbaked88]

Well I meant to say drafting a RB in the 1st or 2nd round, or high enough, where Javonte's role is seriously in question turning him into Travis Etienne or Michael Carter (fantasy value wise). On a lesser scale if next year's "Brian Robinson" goes to Denver how far will Javonte's value fall? I agree with all points though.

And just for fun, if Bijan gets drafted to Denver is he still next year's unquestionable 1.01?

[Anteaters]

And just for fun, if Bijan gets drafted to Denver is he still next year's unquestionable 1.01?

Based solely on how Breece's draft position didn't drop when he was drafted by an NFL team with an exciting young RB, I have a feeling Bijan would still be the consensus rookie RB1 if Denver drafted him.

[mild]

And just for fun, if Bijan gets drafted to Denver is he still next year's unquestionable 1.01?

Based solely on how Breece's draft position didn't drop when he was drafted by an NFL team with an exciting young RB, I have a feeling Bijan would still be the consensus rookie RB1 if Denver drafted him.

Doesn't matter where he goes, for me.

The only guy close for me at this stage is Jahmyr Gibbs. And even then, I can't think of any respective landing spots that would have me flipping them.

[j4pac]

When is the right time to buy? Can his value perceivably lower before next season? I guess that if the Broncos could bring in another RB in the draft. But is that more likely than Williams being ready or close to ready to start the season next year?

[Orenthal Shames]

When is the right time to buy? Can his value perceivably lower before next season? I guess that if the Broncos could bring in another RB in the draft. But is that more likely than Williams being ready or close to ready to start the season next year?

It'll lower during rookie draft time. Rookie fever is undefeated.

[mild]

When is the right time to buy? Can his value perceivably lower before next season? I guess that if the Broncos could bring in another RB in the draft. But is that more likely than Williams being ready or close to ready to start the season next year?

Someone did a lot of the work on this question today on Reddit.

https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comm ... jured_rbs/

You don't have to agree with his conclusions - but that's the full data from the last 2 years of major RB injuries and their value timelines. Very good post.

The wisdom suggests that your answer is "send Javonte offers soon".

[j4pac]

When is the right time to buy? Can his value perceivably lower before next season? I guess that if the Broncos could bring in another RB in the draft. But is that more likely than Williams being ready or close to ready to start the season next year?

It'll lower during rookie draft time. Rookie fever is undefeated.

The problem is that I will likely have a top 3 pick in 2023…so I won’t be trading that for Williams. My next pick will likely be a late 2nd. So there’s definitely a gap. I’d have to add a player or two on top of the 2nd, and even though people get excited over rookies, they get less excited over late 2nd round rookies. My concern about waiting is that his current manager would have already been stashing Williams in his IR slot for a year, and conceivably more invested…and there’s always going to be reports of injured player X being ahead of schedule. Here we are with Jamison Williams a month into the season with no idea of when he’ll return…and he was “ahead of schedule”.

[j4pac]

When is the right time to buy? Can his value perceivably lower before next season? I guess that if the Broncos could bring in another RB in the draft. But is that more likely than Williams being ready or close to ready to start the season next year?

Someone did a lot of the work on this question today on Reddit.

https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comm ... jured_rbs/

You don't have to agree with his conclusions - but that's the full data from the last 2 years of major RB injuries and their value timelines. Very good post.

The wisdom suggests that your answer is "send Javonte offers soon".

I agree. It is a good study. Matches what made sense to me. I suppose the 25% drop can also be used to help estimate what you should expect to give

[lukkynumber13]

I’d like to get your thoughts on this deal - as a rebuilding team, I traded Aiuyk/K Herbert/Dulcich, and a 4th for JW - overpay?