Dynasty Tight End Tiers Going Into 2024?

[Tvols]

Thought this could be a fun exercise with the youth movement we've seen this year and Kelce looking like he could be aging out. I think the clear top 5/6 is Laporta/Hockenson/Andrews/Kincaid/Kelce/McBride in some order. KTC currently has it: Laporta, Hock, Kincaid, Andrews, Kelce, McBride. Pitts is at 7 and when Bowers comes in he will likely be no worse than 5 next year.

With that I think early 2024 tiers:

Tier 1:
Laporta, Hockenson, Andrews

Tier 2:
Kincaid, Bowers, McBride, Kelce

Tier 3:
Pitts, Kittle then everyone else

Thoughts? Who do people see as big risers? Kincaid is super interesting to me, could move up based off year 1 but I don't have him quiet there yet. He's KTC TE3 right now only behind Hockenson and Laporta.

Tier 0:
LaPorta

Tier 1:
Andrews, Hockenson, McBride

Tier 2:
Kelce, Kincaid, Kittle

Tier 3:
Pitts, Bowers, Kmet, Engram, Goedert

Tier 4:
Ferguson, Njoku, Friermouth, Schultz, Mike Mayer

Sleepers:
Noah Fant, Chiggy, Musgrave

Deep Sleepers:
Luke Schoonmaker, Brenton Strange, Greg Dulcich

IS IT FINALLY HAPPENING? Is it actually the "deepest TE has ever been"

This

[yinzername]

No specific order within tiers really but this is how I group them.

Great and not too old:
Laporta, McBride, Hock, Andrews, Kincaid

Great but not young:
Kelce, Kittle

Young and valuable but not producing right now:
Pitts, Bowers

Could be worse:
Goedert, Ferguson, PatF, Kmet, Engram, Schultz, Njoku

Young with upside:
Mayer, Musgrave

Could see a resurgence, but probably not:
Dulcich, Chig, Otton

this is it, somone pin this

[Pac_Eddy]

I think we may be jumping the gun on Kelce, McBride, and Kincaid. And I still don't trust Kittle.

Ask again in February.

[Jigga94]

I personally don't have Kelce playing 3+ more years. If he does, I don't think he is as elite and I would like to think that the young TE will be hitting their prime by then.

Kincaid seems good, but not great so far. I haven't watched recent Bills games, but most of his work earlier was a lot of quick throws, out routes and he had limited YAC. I don't think he's necessarily limited to just doing that though. Could be a PPR machine and could garner a huge workload in that offense moving forward. I still like him a lot, but I think a guy like McBride is more talented

[Jigga94]

I haven't looked at year to year stats or anything, but are targets up for TE across the board? Is it the shift of defenses going to cover 2 and taking away deep plays causing the TE to get more work over the middle/underneath? Or is it that we've had some good TE come in this year and hit the top tiers that have boosted the position as a whole? I'll say it looks a lot deeper adding McBride and LaPorta and Kincaid to the top ranks, instead of another 5 TE to that low end TE1 range that a lot of them seemed to be landing in prior.

[Mike11]

Thought this could be a fun exercise with the youth movement we've seen this year and Kelce looking like he could be aging out. I think the clear top 5/6 is Laporta/Hockenson/Andrews/Kincaid/Kelce/McBride in some order. KTC currently has it: Laporta, Hock, Kincaid, Andrews, Kelce, McBride. Pitts is at 7 and when Bowers comes in he will likely be no worse than 5 next year.

With that I think early 2024 tiers:

Tier 1:
Laporta, Hockenson, Andrews

Tier 2:
Kincaid, Bowers, McBride, Kelce

Tier 3:
Pitts, Kittle then everyone else

Thoughts? Who do people see as big risers? Kincaid is super interesting to me, could move up based off year 1 but I don't have him quiet there yet. He's KTC TE3 right now only behind Hockenson and Laporta.

Tier 0:
LaPorta

Tier 1:
Andrews, Hockenson, McBride

Tier 2:
Kelce, Kincaid, Kittle

Tier 3:
Pitts, Bowers, Kmet, Engram, Goedert

Tier 4:
Ferguson, Njoku, Friermouth, Schultz, Mike Mayer

Sleepers:
Noah Fant, Chiggy, Musgrave

Deep Sleepers:
Luke Schoonmaker, Brenton Strange, Greg Dulcich

IS IT FINALLY HAPPENING? Is it actually the "deepest TE has ever been"

This

I get preferring McBride over Kincaid but don't see how they're in different tiers. I also think Laporta is 1 but right there with Hockenson, don't think he's his own tier but overall like it

I personally don't have Kelce playing 3+ more years. If he does, I don't think he is as elite and I would like to think that the young TE will be hitting their prime by then.

Kincaid seems good, but not great so far. I haven't watched recent Bills games, but most of his work earlier was a lot of quick throws, out routes and he had limited YAC. I don't think he's necessarily limited to just doing that though. Could be a PPR machine and could garner a huge workload in that offense moving forward. I still like him a lot, but I think a guy like McBride is more talented

FWIW he has the best open score of the rookie tight ends, ahead of Laporta and he's at 43.1 YPG to Laportas 56.6. Put's Laporta at an absurd almost 1K clip for the year but Kincaid at a rock solid 732. I'll be curious if coming out of the bye Kincaid gets the classic rookie bump in production.

[jordanzs]

If I was in a startup draft, I would take Kincaid and McBride before Andrews.

[Ruggenater]

No specific order within tiers really but this is how I group them.

Great and not too old:
Laporta, McBride, Hock, Andrews, Kincaid

Great but not young:
Kelce, Kittle

Young and valuable but not producing right now:
Pitts, Bowers

Could be worse:
Goedert, Ferguson, PatF, Kmet, Engram, Schultz, Njoku

Young with upside:
Mayer, Musgrave

Could see a resurgence, but probably not:
Dulcich, Chig, Otton

Very good assessment.

On another note, I'm going to push back slightly on the whole "Deepest TE has ever been" talk. Our TE12 is sitting at 10.1ppg. Last year the TE12 was at 9.4ppg and in 2021 TE12 was at 10.4. Seems like we are just rotating the 5-15 TEs still. I do think we are seeing a shift though to some of the younger TEs with LaPorta, Kincaid, Musgrave (Pitts, Bowers?).

Agree with this. It feels like the sentiment is coming through because the first few tiers are scoring closer together this year. Last year, Kelce outscored the TE2 by over 100 points in full PPR (over 5 points per game). Without that huge differential this year, it feels like the lower end TE1s are performing better, even though it’s close to the same PPG.

[Sriracha]

I get preferring McBride over Kincaid but don't see how they're in different tiers. I also think Laporta is 1 but right there with Hockenson, don't think he's his own tier but overall like it

FWIW he has the best open score of the rookie tight ends, ahead of Laporta and he's at 43.1 YPG to Laportas 56.6. Put's Laporta at an absurd almost 1K clip for the year but Kincaid at a rock solid 732. I'll be curious if coming out of the bye Kincaid gets the classic rookie bump in production.

Rookie TEs get steamed up as elite assets before they actually put out elite production.

Since Ertz has been out of the picture, McBride has put out elite production while also posting elite periphery stats like PFF receiving grade and YPRR.

Don't get me wrong, Kincaid was my TE1 before the NFL draft happened so I'm obviously a big fan but I just can't in good faith put him in the same tier as another young TE that's already doing what Kincaid might do in the future.

There's also the added uncertainty of Kincaid's usage when Dawson Knox comes back. We think Kincaid is going to retain his role but we know Ertz is no longer a factor in ARZ after the team released him.

[wickerkat1212]

Anyone holding Ertz or have you all moved on?

[Mike11]

I get preferring McBride over Kincaid but don't see how they're in different tiers. I also think Laporta is 1 but right there with Hockenson, don't think he's his own tier but overall like it

FWIW he has the best open score of the rookie tight ends, ahead of Laporta and he's at 43.1 YPG to Laportas 56.6. Put's Laporta at an absurd almost 1K clip for the year but Kincaid at a rock solid 732. I'll be curious if coming out of the bye Kincaid gets the classic rookie bump in production.

Rookie TEs get steamed up as elite assets before they actually put out elite production.

Since Ertz has been out of the picture, McBride has put out elite production while also posting elite periphery stats like PFF receiving grade and YPRR.

Don't get me wrong, Kincaid was my TE1 before the NFL draft happened so I'm obviously a big fan but I just can't in good faith put him in the same tier as another young TE that's already doing what Kincaid might do in the future.

There's also the added uncertainty of Kincaid's usage when Dawson Knox comes back. We think Kincaid is going to retain his role but we know Ertz is no longer a factor in ARZ after the team released him.

I hear you on the proving it thing in general and I get it, I’ll point out McBride is averaging 47 YPG and Kincaid is at 43 YPG. So when we say prove it, not crazy, I totally get Ertz took valuable snaps from McBride but that’s arguably what Knox has done to Kincaid (hopefully it goes away). Let’s see how they close out the year and revisit I think. If we ignore external factors their pacing is quite similar. Kincaid also had the rookie learning curve I’d think.

[Sriracha]

I get preferring McBride over Kincaid but don't see how they're in different tiers. I also think Laporta is 1 but right there with Hockenson, don't think he's his own tier but overall like it

FWIW he has the best open score of the rookie tight ends, ahead of Laporta and he's at 43.1 YPG to Laportas 56.6. Put's Laporta at an absurd almost 1K clip for the year but Kincaid at a rock solid 732. I'll be curious if coming out of the bye Kincaid gets the classic rookie bump in production.

Rookie TEs get steamed up as elite assets before they actually put out elite production.

Since Ertz has been out of the picture, McBride has put out elite production while also posting elite periphery stats like PFF receiving grade and YPRR.

Don't get me wrong, Kincaid was my TE1 before the NFL draft happened so I'm obviously a big fan but I just can't in good faith put him in the same tier as another young TE that's already doing what Kincaid might do in the future.

There's also the added uncertainty of Kincaid's usage when Dawson Knox comes back. We think Kincaid is going to retain his role but we know Ertz is no longer a factor in ARZ after the team released him.

I hear you on the proving it thing in general and I get it, I’ll point out McBride is averaging 47 YPG and Kincaid is at 43 YPG. So when we say prove it, not crazy, I totally get Ertz took valuable snaps from McBride but that’s arguably what Knox has done to Kincaid (hopefully it goes away). Let’s see how they close out the year and revisit I think. If we ignore external factors their pacing is quite similar. Kincaid also had the rookie learning curve I’d think.

I think the key difference here is the periphery stats.

McBride is posting an elite PFF TE receiving grade of 87.5 and is #3 in the NFL with 2.23 YPRR; Kincaid by contrast is 15th in the NFL at 1.43 YPRR

Those are total season stats including the time spent with Ertz and Knox.

Kincaid is a guy you want and he's on the ascension but I maintain that McBride should be valued higher until Kincaid puts out elite production or at least elite efficiency.

[Two Cents]

Soooo is Laporta currently the top TE asset here? I see a lot more debate around Kelce, Hock, McBride and Kincaid.

[lukkynumber13]

Soooo is Laporta currently the top TE asset here? I see a lot more debate around Kelce, Hock, McBride and Kincaid.

For me Laporta is either the clear TE1 or maybe the TE2 behind Hock.

Kelce is still a great asset but he's old AF and seems to no longer be the complete game-wrecker he was earlier in the season and last year.

[Mike11]

Soooo is Laporta currently the top TE asset here? I see a lot more debate around Kelce, Hock, McBride and Kincaid.

He’s definitely the TE1 or 2 behind Hock. I’d have him top of Tier 1, you can’t ask for him to be doing much more.