CJ Stroud & Coin Flips

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Re: CJ Stroud

Postby FantasyFreak » Sun Sep 24, 2023 10:03 pm

StripesOfKC wrote: Sun Sep 24, 2023 9:25 pm
FantasyFreak wrote: Sun Sep 24, 2023 9:08 pm
remedy29 wrote: Sun Sep 24, 2023 9:04 pm I thought Stroud was going to bust based on that S2 test.

Frank Reich should never be allowed to make a QB decision for a franchise again. If the Panthers get the 1st overall pick, they need to fire Reich quickly.
I just never understood the price they paid for an outlier. Maybe it works out, but the price they paid, Young needs to be a top 10 QB for his career, IMO. They could have used that pick to build OL, or D, and had a real shot at Caleb next year, or another top end QB.......or maybe grab a guy like Shedeur Sanders on day 2..... :wave: I kid, Giles, I kid.

This is what happens when franchises get desperate, though. Hiring a re-tread, to have a say in the process,too. IF I recall correctly, there was some real debate within the building, on who to take, which is never good. Sort of like the Lance situation. Not at all saying Bryce is Lance, but to make a move like this, there should be zero debate.

I am trying to think of the big trade UP, that worked at QB, recently. Help me out. There was RG3, Lance, recently. Any others I am missing?

Honestly, in regards to Reich, he looks old, tired and disengaged. He's not HC material. I'm amazed after what happened in Indy, that this organization would hire him and then pay that kind of capital to provide him with a QB. Insane. It was a ridiculous move, but IDK, maybe I'm wrong.

Reich was a good OC, but much like his playing days, is best playing 2nd fiddle. The Panthers are a mess.

The Texans look like the hired a good HC, who has the players playing above their pay grade already. They've likely hit on a few guys, in the non premium rounds too. They look like they have a rudder, and that bodes well for Stroud.
Pretty much any team that isn't terrible terrible is going to have to pay a price to draft a QB

As a team that did it I have zero regrets

Even if it didn't work out though I'd take it over rolling out Andy Dalton or Desmond Ridder

Bryce Young may bust but I can't blame the Panthers for actually trying unlike some very un-serious franchises
I disagree. They completely whiffed on reality of where they were as a team, and the player. Trading their own first next year looks egregious.

"Actually trying" could actually mean setting themselves back 5 years rather than just waiting a year. It's called piss poor management. Inability to take an objective look at where you are. Or, perhaps they are just inept.

Either way, through 3 games it looks like a complete disaster and I don't give them a pass on it for what I consider terrible process.

Throwing a "Hail Mary" on 3rd and 8, as an analogy. Fields is terrible, they were given a hard time on passing on him for Horn, in hindsight, kind of a bad pick too, but injuries are so hard to predict on some players who showed no signs of it, like Penny for instance. They were right to pass on Fields for an elite corner prospect.

BUT, if you're going to go all in like this a few short years later, you'd better be right. Maybe they will be, but the process of who they hired, how it all went down, it all seemed very desperate, and if it doesn't work out, NO.

Trying isn't throwing away the next 4-5 years.....not unless you are completely sure, and if they whiffed, with conflict on the pick on top of that, no pass from me. That's how bad organizations stay bad.

Bryce Young needs to be a top 10-12 QB who stays healthy, for may years, for this deal to make sense. Period. If not, the Panthers are a bottom end team for the next half decade.

One more thing, what exactly are the teams that "don't try"? You mean teams that don't throw away picks that could submarine their franchise for half a decade? That's "not trying"? They maybe have a different plan that isn't, throw all caution to the wind on a low percentage play, and that's "bad", vs what the Panthers did, regardless of the outcome?

You realize "rolling out Andy Dalton" gave the Panthers a better shot at winning this week, over Bryce Young, right? :lol: How un-serious of them! They were in Seattle, one of the toughest places to play for visiting teams. Bryce Young would have been eaten alive, there, this week, it would have likely destroyed him. He's actually lucky he hurt his ankle, and I think this staff knew that even IF he could have gone, there was no way they'd put him in there, because as Andy "un-serious" Dalton gave them a shot to win, over Bryce.

Please clarify this further. Dalton has been a solid NFL QB for years, and was actually better than Winston last year. Are you referring to the Saints? They tried to upgrade to Carr, and were well on their way to being 3-0 before he got hurt, and Winston did nothing...so what and where, and how, does Dalton fit into unserious teams, exactly?

Dalton had a very fine career with the Bengals, ultimately, no he wasn't it. The Saints rode Dalton for a year, they have an elite D and tried to upgrade, and IMO did. Carr is a good QB. Ridder, no argument, I don't get it, they would be better with Taylor H, but they wanted to see what they had in Ridder, at least. That isn't going to work, but they gave it a shot, sometimes Dak Prescott happens with a mid round pick, sometimes it doesn't.

Doesn't mean the Falcons aren't serious. They wanted to see it with a full off season, give him some time. They clearly have a good football team, just missing the QB, but giving Ridder a chance doesn't make them "un-serious". They just likely didn't hit on a 3rd round QB, but they wanted to see it, they are still 2-1, and have a good roster.....and all of their picks and players for the future in the same division a the very serious Carolina Panthers....who are 0-3.....and don't have their first next year.
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Re: CJ Stroud

Postby trc » Mon Sep 25, 2023 1:22 am

FantasyFreak wrote: Sun Sep 24, 2023 8:47 pm He looks miles better than Young, and cost a lot less. Of course it's early. BUT, Stroud was supposed to struggle early, and Young was "pro ready". The narrative doesn't look like the reality, already, and Young is hurt 2 games in, which was also a major concern. It's an extremely small sample size, but for Young, it's also extremely concerning.
Based on actual play, I guess they are priced similar already.
As a Young owner I wouldn't trade straight up for Stroud - as a Stroud owner I wouldn't do the other way either.

A twisted ankle has hardly anything to do with his size - admittedly I didn't see the injury happen, but to me it is over reactionary to link a twisted ankle to injury concerns attached to Young.

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Re: CJ Stroud is dynasty's new QB7

Postby Anteaters » Mon Sep 25, 2023 3:04 am

trc wrote: Mon Sep 25, 2023 1:22 am
FantasyFreak wrote: Sun Sep 24, 2023 8:47 pm He looks miles better than Young, and cost a lot less. Of course it's early. BUT, Stroud was supposed to struggle early, and Young was "pro ready". The narrative doesn't look like the reality, already, and Young is hurt 2 games in, which was also a major concern. It's an extremely small sample size, but for Young, it's also extremely concerning.
Based on actual play, I guess they are priced similar already.
As a Young owner I wouldn't trade straight up for Stroud - as a Stroud owner I wouldn't do the other way either.
Regardless of the ankle injury, as a Stroud owner I would not trade Stroud for Young+random1st. Wouldn't even consider it.

I think we've seen enough from Stroud to feel good that he's going to be, at minimum, a good starting QB in the NFL and a viable starter in fantasy. Young is still at that stage where he's a 50/50 guy who might end up sticking or might be replaced in two years. Young has so far in the NFL shown little to make me feel comfortable he's a lock to be a starter in three years. I hope he is, but so far he's provided few tangible results. And I blame some of that on Reich - the coach that's looked like a bum whenever he didn't coach a transcendent talent at QB. Carolina fans will pay the price for his hiring for a long time. Carolina is about to start on a years long era of ineptitude under Reich.
Last edited by Anteaters on Tue Oct 03, 2023 3:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
TEAM 1:
12 Team ppr w/20 keepers - start 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1FLX 6IDP 1DEF
QB: Tua, Lamar, CWilliams
RB: Etienne, Pacheco, JFord, Corum, JWright
WR: Lamb, JChase, Waddle, Pickens, Q Johnston, DeDouglas, MCorley
TE: Goedert, Okongwo
DEF: Cowboys, Ravens
IDP:(LB) Bolton, DLloyd; (DE/DL) Sieler; (S/CB) Pitre, Bates
2023 & 2022 Champion: 2020 third place: 2019 Champion

TEAM 2:
14 Team 30roster SF/ppr/TEP - QB/RB/WR/TE/5FLX/SF
QB: Tua, CJStroud, Carr, AOC, MWhite, Lock
RB: Etienne, Stevenson, GusE, Singletary, AJD, CEH, Spiller
WR: Amon-Ra, Kirk, Dell, Thielen, Gallup, VJefferson, Ch Jones
TE: Andrews, Waller, Taysom, Smythe, WMallory, JOliver
2023 semifinals loser

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Re: CJ Stroud

Postby trc » Mon Sep 25, 2023 3:27 am

Anteaters wrote: Mon Sep 25, 2023 3:04 am
trc wrote: Mon Sep 25, 2023 1:22 am
FantasyFreak wrote: Sun Sep 24, 2023 8:47 pm He looks miles better than Young, and cost a lot less. Of course it's early. BUT, Stroud was supposed to struggle early, and Young was "pro ready". The narrative doesn't look like the reality, already, and Young is hurt 2 games in, which was also a major concern. It's an extremely small sample size, but for Young, it's also extremely concerning.
Based on actual play, I guess they are priced similar already.
As a Young owner I wouldn't trade straight up for Stroud - as a Stroud owner I wouldn't do the other way either.
Regardless of the ankle injury, as a Stroud owner I would not trade Stroud for Young+random1st. Wouldn't even consider it.

I think we've seen enough from Stroud to feel good that he's going to be, at minimum, a good starting QB in the NFL and a viable starter in fantasy. Young is still at that stage where he's a 50/50 guy who might end up sticking or might be replaced in two years. Young has so far in the NFL shown little to make me feel comfortable he's a lock to be a starter in three years. I hope he is, but so far he's provided few tangible results. And I blame some of that on Reich - the coach that's looked like a bum whenever he didn't coach a transcendent talent at QB. Carolina fans will pay the price for his hiring for a long time. Carolina is about to start on a years long era of ineptitude under Reich.
Perhaps I'm just being conservative in my approach, but I'm just not there. Most likely I'll be late to the Stroud-party, but I can live with that.

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Re: CJ Stroud

Postby Anteaters » Mon Sep 25, 2023 3:59 am

trc wrote: Mon Sep 25, 2023 3:27 amPerhaps I'm just being conservative in my approach, but I'm just not there. Most likely I'll be late to the Stroud-party, but I can live with that.
I'm cautious and slow to the party a lot. Usually with WRs. There are too many very talented WRs and many who flash stud fantasy talent in year one, that I tend to wait until the likelihood for reaching that plateau is almost certain. Which of course means it's usually too late to acquire a young stud WR in trade. If I don't identify stud WRs via a fantasy draft, I usually miss out unless I target a young WR changing teams (or their current team creating a better situation) and try to get on board that way.

With the Stroud:Young flip or flop call, I'm going with what I've seen combined with the mathematical history that not every QB drafted highly will last. From what we've seen so far, it seems like Stroud is, at minimum, going to work out. Stroud may or may not achieve T10 consistency, but he has the look, so far, of a guy who is going to be his NFL team's QB for many years. Richardson has flashed more than Young, so I lean toward him being second on the list. If I assume not all three will last, that leaves Young holding the short straw - no pun intended.

I loves me maths and statisticals.
Last edited by Anteaters on Mon Sep 25, 2023 5:15 am, edited 2 times in total.
TEAM 1:
12 Team ppr w/20 keepers - start 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1FLX 6IDP 1DEF
QB: Tua, Lamar, CWilliams
RB: Etienne, Pacheco, JFord, Corum, JWright
WR: Lamb, JChase, Waddle, Pickens, Q Johnston, DeDouglas, MCorley
TE: Goedert, Okongwo
DEF: Cowboys, Ravens
IDP:(LB) Bolton, DLloyd; (DE/DL) Sieler; (S/CB) Pitre, Bates
2023 & 2022 Champion: 2020 third place: 2019 Champion

TEAM 2:
14 Team 30roster SF/ppr/TEP - QB/RB/WR/TE/5FLX/SF
QB: Tua, CJStroud, Carr, AOC, MWhite, Lock
RB: Etienne, Stevenson, GusE, Singletary, AJD, CEH, Spiller
WR: Amon-Ra, Kirk, Dell, Thielen, Gallup, VJefferson, Ch Jones
TE: Andrews, Waller, Taysom, Smythe, WMallory, JOliver
2023 semifinals loser

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Re: CJ Stroud

Postby tstafford » Mon Sep 25, 2023 4:03 am

Stroud's impressed faster than we might have expected - he's a rookie and we all question HOU. However he really was the prototypical NFL QB prospect - good size and excellent thrower. I'm glad I got him in my one start-up. Aside from Puka, I'm guessing Stroud has gained the most value of any '23 rookie. (If he's possibly worth Young/1st then that's for sure true).

FWIW - I agree that I wouldn't deal Stroud for Young. During the rookie draft season I wanted to take whichever one went 2nd which in most (not all) drafts was Stroud. FWIW - in the start-up I did (with legit industry folks) Young went at pick #21 and Stroud at #44 (huge gap).

It think Ant makes an interesting point about how Young is still 50/50. I agree with that. We don't know yet. I can see paying a 1st on top of Young to get Stroud if that means you don't have to worry that Young might bust. It looks fairly unlikely that Stroud is going to bust at this point. Depending on your risk tolerance there is some value to be had in taking the safer path.

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Re: CJ Stroud

Postby CGW » Mon Sep 25, 2023 5:03 am

Anteaters wrote: Mon Sep 25, 2023 3:59 am
trc wrote: Mon Sep 25, 2023 3:27 amPerhaps I'm just being conservative in my approach, but I'm just not there. Most likely I'll be late to the Stroud-party, but I can live with that.
If I assume not all three will last, that leaves Young holding the short straw - no pun intended.

I loves me maths and statisticals.
Clearly, as that is not how maths and statistics work at all. :lol:

The success of CJ Stroud and Anthony Richardson are not mutually exclusive to the success of Bryce Young. They are completely independent. It's like flipping a quarter ten times. Just because the first 9 were heads, does not impact the odds of the 10th flip in any way

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Re: CJ Stroud

Postby Kurt G.O.A.T. » Mon Sep 25, 2023 5:13 am

CGW wrote: Mon Sep 25, 2023 5:03 am They are completely independent. It's like flipping a quarter ten times. Just because the first 9 were heads, does not impact the odds of the 10th flip in any way
I'm sorry but that's not true.

Sure that individual coin flip will be 50/50 but if you're looking at the whole picture that 10th flip has a substantial less chance of being heads.

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Re: CJ Stroud

Postby Dibbles » Mon Sep 25, 2023 5:22 am

Kurt G.O.A.T. wrote: Mon Sep 25, 2023 5:13 am
CGW wrote: Mon Sep 25, 2023 5:03 am They are completely independent. It's like flipping a quarter ten times. Just because the first 9 were heads, does not impact the odds of the 10th flip in any way
I'm sorry but that's not true.

Sure that individual coin flip will be 50/50 but if you're looking at the whole picture that 10th flip has a substantial less chance of being heads.
Nope, the “whole picture” has no bearing whatsoever, its still 50/50. Just go ask the gambler who waits out 8 or 9 consecutive reds in roulette before placing their bet on black.

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Re: CJ Stroud

Postby Anteaters » Mon Sep 25, 2023 5:26 am

So we all agree Young is still at the 50/50 coinflip stage of a rookie 1st pick, in the "who knows what will happen" stage, and Stroud is well above that stage of the assessment process? Meaning we all agree Stroud has so far proven to be the better bet for having a successful NFL career. Meaning he is, at this moment, a better bet to be a better fantasy QB. We all agree with that right?
Last edited by Anteaters on Mon Sep 25, 2023 5:29 am, edited 2 times in total.
TEAM 1:
12 Team ppr w/20 keepers - start 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1FLX 6IDP 1DEF
QB: Tua, Lamar, CWilliams
RB: Etienne, Pacheco, JFord, Corum, JWright
WR: Lamb, JChase, Waddle, Pickens, Q Johnston, DeDouglas, MCorley
TE: Goedert, Okongwo
DEF: Cowboys, Ravens
IDP:(LB) Bolton, DLloyd; (DE/DL) Sieler; (S/CB) Pitre, Bates
2023 & 2022 Champion: 2020 third place: 2019 Champion

TEAM 2:
14 Team 30roster SF/ppr/TEP - QB/RB/WR/TE/5FLX/SF
QB: Tua, CJStroud, Carr, AOC, MWhite, Lock
RB: Etienne, Stevenson, GusE, Singletary, AJD, CEH, Spiller
WR: Amon-Ra, Kirk, Dell, Thielen, Gallup, VJefferson, Ch Jones
TE: Andrews, Waller, Taysom, Smythe, WMallory, JOliver
2023 semifinals loser

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Re: CJ Stroud

Postby Jigga94 » Mon Sep 25, 2023 5:27 am

Kurt G.O.A.T. wrote: Mon Sep 25, 2023 5:13 am
CGW wrote: Mon Sep 25, 2023 5:03 am They are completely independent. It's like flipping a quarter ten times. Just because the first 9 were heads, does not impact the odds of the 10th flip in any way
I'm sorry but that's not true.

Sure that individual coin flip will be 50/50 but if you're looking at the whole picture that 10th flip has a substantial less chance of being heads.
:ugeek:

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Re: CJ Stroud

Postby Kurt G.O.A.T. » Mon Sep 25, 2023 5:30 am

Dibbles wrote: Mon Sep 25, 2023 5:22 am
Kurt G.O.A.T. wrote: Mon Sep 25, 2023 5:13 am
CGW wrote: Mon Sep 25, 2023 5:03 am They are completely independent. It's like flipping a quarter ten times. Just because the first 9 were heads, does not impact the odds of the 10th flip in any way
I'm sorry but that's not true.

Sure that individual coin flip will be 50/50 but if you're looking at the whole picture that 10th flip has a substantial less chance of being heads.
Nope, the “whole picture” has no bearing whatsoever, its still 50/50. Just go ask the gambler who waits out 8 or 9 consecutive reds in roulette before placing their bet on black.
Not talking about what actually happens. Talking about the probability of it happening.

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Re: CJ Stroud

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon Sep 25, 2023 5:32 am

What he's doing with a young WR group and an offensive line that isn't at full strength (and isn't even great at full strength) can't be understated. It's just not typical (or easy) to have this type of success early with those circumstances.

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Re: CJ Stroud

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon Sep 25, 2023 5:34 am

Anteaters wrote: Mon Sep 25, 2023 5:26 am So we all agree Young is still at the 50/50 coinflip stage of a rookie 1st pick, in the "who knows what will happen" stage, and Stroud is well above that stage of the assessment process? Meaning we all agree Stroud has so far proven to be the better bet for having a successful NFL career. Meaning he is, at this moment, a better bet to be a better fantasy QB. We all agree with that right?
I don't think it's ever that simple. But yes, if we were doing a startup today, Stroud would go well before Young. I'm not sure if he goes before Richardson, but that's a toss-up.

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Re: CJ Stroud

Postby CGW » Mon Sep 25, 2023 5:40 am

Kurt G.O.A.T. wrote: Mon Sep 25, 2023 5:13 am
CGW wrote: Mon Sep 25, 2023 5:03 am They are completely independent. It's like flipping a quarter ten times. Just because the first 9 were heads, does not impact the odds of the 10th flip in any way
I'm sorry but that's not true.

Sure that individual coin flip will be 50/50 but if you're looking at the whole picture that 10th flip has a substantial less chance of being heads.
^
Someone who didn't pass high school stats class


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