Almost Post Draft Top 10 PPR

[tstafford]

Few thoughts:
- I like the comparison done above b/w 2022 and 2023. I don't agree all of it, but it's an interesting "analysis"
- I think the hate on KW has gone too far. I'm on the side that it hurt Charb's value much, much more. I expected (read hoped) he would land in a spot to be an NFL RB1 (like Pierce). Could be wrong and Charb takes the job, but I doubt it
- No knock on Gibbs, but people are too low on both London and Burks. Give me Gibbs slightly over London, but London over JSN. And I'll take Burks over both Flowers and QJ (not Addison)

Net/net - I don't really care at this point whether 2022 as a class was good, bad or indifferent. What I care about is what to do about 2023. I like the top, dislike everything after the 1.04 (Addison or JSN) and am intrigued by the value that can be had in the 2nd.

[dynastyninja]

Lmao we really went from oh my god 2nds are gonna be huge to after pick 6 I dont think I want anyone

I mean we got people ranking 3 TEs in the 1st of a 1 QB PPR lol. This class is gawd awful compared to last years class.

Last years top 10 was something like

1. Breece hall, Bijans better

2. Drake London, gibbs is better

3. Kenneth Walker, JSN is better and now Charbonet is in that mix

4. Garrett Wilson, QJ or Addison aren’t as good obviously

5. Treylon Burks, Addison and QJ are better imo

6. Jameson Williams, Zay Flowers, not much to go on here, I’ll give to jame o because he has at least stepped on an NFL field.

7. Chris Olave, he’s better than any equivalent here

8. George Pickens or achane, both seem to be highlight machines with a specific skill set, this one is closer than people may want to admit

9. Jahan Dotson or Charbonet, Definitely Dotson here Charbonet to Seattle is what killed the class but it also killed the 2022 class

10. Skyy moore or anyone from 2023. I’m taking my chances on some of these 2023 guys, even TEs in a 1 QB who would be here over Moore

There is some serious overvaluing of the 2022 class going on right now. 2023 did not live up the the crazy hype and this has been disappointing but 2022 has not been this special class it’s being made out to

Whatever you just typed out there makes little sense to me. If I'm ranking the raw prospects from each class, it's something like:

Bijan *23
Hall
Walker
Gibson *23
Wilson
London
Olave
JSN *23
Jamo
Dotson
Burks

And then the 23 guys start to fill in along with Pickens and CWatson.

I don't see how this is anything other than a major indictment of the 23 class. It's got nothing to do with perception. 22 just had better guys (1QB) other than Bijan.

It's really bad from these rankings. Superflex it's a very good class. 1QB is horrible.

The 2nds/3rds, on the other hand, will be awesome in 2023.

[Cameron Giles]

I’m easily taking KW over the 3rd passing option for geno.
Even after lockett leaves, could we ever really see him
As more than a 80-1000 type of guy sharing with dk. Mid wr2 at best

I'm really not worried about KW with the Charb pick. Sucks for Charb, I like him, but Walker is the better player by quite a bit. Charb will have a role, the NFL is done with 90 percent snap share backs, pretty much. Walker will get 250 carries, or more, assuming health. I like JSN, but I'd move him in a second if I could get KW for him.

Young, productive RB's are just harder to acquire, and WR production I find is easier to get. Vets like Coop, Cooks etc over the past year or two were cheap and gave good production. There's just easier ways to get WR production. Everybody is free to build teams how they want, but I know I'd want quite a bit on top to move KW for JSN, and I would move JSN for KW in a heartbeat. I'm buying the dip, if I can.

I don't see how anyone can say that Walker isn't notably affected by Charbonnet. Walker entered this draft with a high chance of being one of the position leaders in snap share, and now Seattle just drafted someone with the same draft pedigree as Walker, a 93P target share in college, AND he's a back who can steal short yardage and goal line work.

I would not be buying Walker at Top-5 RB prices in the offseason.

Keep in mind that Walker had a 58% snap share last season and during the first five games of the season, Pete Carroll had him in a time share with Rashaad Penny. Penny had a 57% snap share in those five games. There is precedent for Carroll operating with two backs, and it can definitely limit Walker. If he loses receiving work and goal line usage, that's a BIG hit.

[FantasyFreak]

I’m easily taking KW over the 3rd passing option for geno.
Even after lockett leaves, could we ever really see him
As more than a 80-1000 type of guy sharing with dk. Mid wr2 at best

I'm really not worried about KW with the Charb pick. Sucks for Charb, I like him, but Walker is the better player by quite a bit. Charb will have a role, the NFL is done with 90 percent snap share backs, pretty much. Walker will get 250 carries, or more, assuming health. I like JSN, but I'd move him in a second if I could get KW for him.

Young, productive RB's are just harder to acquire, and WR production I find is easier to get. Vets like Coop, Cooks etc over the past year or two were cheap and gave good production. There's just easier ways to get WR production. Everybody is free to build teams how they want, but I know I'd want quite a bit on top to move KW for JSN, and I would move JSN for KW in a heartbeat. I'm buying the dip, if I can.

I don't see how anyone can say that Walker isn't notably affected by Charbonnet. Walker entered this draft with a high chance of being one of the position leaders in snap share, and now Seattle just drafted someone with the same draft pedigree as Walker, a 93P target share in college, AND he's a back who can steal short yardage and goal line work.

I would not be buying Walker at Top-5 RB prices in the offseason.

Keep in mind that Walker had a 58% snap share last season and during the first five games of the season, Pete Carroll had him in a time share with Rashaad Penny. Penny had a 57% snap share in those five games. There is precedent for Carroll operating with two backs, and it can definitely limit Walker. If he loses receiving work and goal line usage, that's a BIG hit.

The Hawks needed to add another RB. Had they added a similar type of back, I'd be worried. I care about touches and Fantasy Points, and I see Walker as a 1200 yard rusher, double digit rushing TD's, and 30ish receptions.

Charbonnet is a solid, though unspectacular back that will have a role at some point, though not likely early, as most 2nd round RB's take a month or two, to get acclimated. I don't want Walker to be an 80 percent snap share back, I just care about his touches, and final output. I think he's a 280 touch back, and a really talented one at that.

It doesn't affect how I view KW at all. Draft pedigree isn't the same either, KW's is more, and all you have to do is look at a draft chart value that the NFL uses to know it would take a non zero move to get from 52 to 41. Regardless, the Hawks clearly felt they had to upgrade the RB room, and they did. They had nothing behind Walker, and he can't be out there all the time.

I wouldn't devalue Walker if I had him in a league, and in my leagues where the KW owner is looking to sell cheaper now, I'm looking to buy.

mgscott was big on Walker all pre-draft last year, and I think he had it right that Walker is a back that has talent that few have. There's going to be a place for him on an NFL field enough to be a good FF producer IMO, and I want that on my rosters, young RB's with his talent are so hard to get on your roster, I'm buying during this dip in value if his owners view his value as less now.

[Cameron Giles]

The Hawks needed to add another RB. Had they added a similar type of back, I'd be worried. I care about touches and Fantasy Points, and I see Walker as a 1200 yard rusher, double digit rushing TD's, and 30ish receptions.

Charbonnet is a solid, though unspectacular back that will have a role at some point, though not likely early, as most 2nd round RB's take a month or two, to get acclimated. I don't want Walker to be an 80 percent snap share back, I just care about his touches, and final output. I think he's a 280 touch back, and a really talented one at that.

It doesn't affect how I view KW at all. Draft pedigree isn't the same either, KW's is more, and all you have to do is look at a draft chart value that the NFL uses to know it would take a non zero move to get from 52 to 41. Regardless, the Hawks clearly felt they had to upgrade the RB room, and they did. They had nothing behind Walker, and he can't be out there all the time.

I wouldn't devalue Walker if I had him in a league, and in my leagues where the KW owner is looking to sell cheaper now, I'm looking to buy.

mgscott was big on Walker all pre-draft last year, and I think he had it right that Walker is a back that has talent that few have. There's going to be a place for him on an NFL field enough to be a good FF producer IMO, and I want that on my rosters, young RB's with his talent are so hard to get on your roster, I'm buying during this dip in value if his owners view his value as less now.

Seattle needed an RB, but they didn't need to spend a near Top-50 pick on one. It doesn't matter that Walker went 11 spots higher in a different draft. For fantasy purposes, they are both RBs who went in the 2nd round, which means they have the same pedigree.

If you care about touches and fantasy points, Walker's upside for an elite amount year-to-year was just capped by Seattle drafting Charbonnet. You aren't high on him, but Charbonnet is entering the NFL with a more well-rounded skillset than Walker. There's a reason everyone was disappointed in the pick, and it's because Charbonnet could've handled a big workload on a different team.

Walker's hot streak last year came when he was averaging around 70-80% snap share after Penny's injury.

I'm not saying Walker is bad or anything like that. He's clearly a very good back. I'm saying that Walker and Charbonnet are both capped now because of the pick. If Seattle would've drafted say...an RB in the 5th, then Walker being a Top-5 RB would still be justified for me. But today? I'd have to see it play out.

[FantasyFreak]

The Hawks needed to add another RB. Had they added a similar type of back, I'd be worried. I care about touches and Fantasy Points, and I see Walker as a 1200 yard rusher, double digit rushing TD's, and 30ish receptions.

Charbonnet is a solid, though unspectacular back that will have a role at some point, though not likely early, as most 2nd round RB's take a month or two, to get acclimated. I don't want Walker to be an 80 percent snap share back, I just care about his touches, and final output. I think he's a 280 touch back, and a really talented one at that.

It doesn't affect how I view KW at all. Draft pedigree isn't the same either, KW's is more, and all you have to do is look at a draft chart value that the NFL uses to know it would take a non zero move to get from 52 to 41. Regardless, the Hawks clearly felt they had to upgrade the RB room, and they did. They had nothing behind Walker, and he can't be out there all the time.

I wouldn't devalue Walker if I had him in a league, and in my leagues where the KW owner is looking to sell cheaper now, I'm looking to buy.

mgscott was big on Walker all pre-draft last year, and I think he had it right that Walker is a back that has talent that few have. There's going to be a place for him on an NFL field enough to be a good FF producer IMO, and I want that on my rosters, young RB's with his talent are so hard to get on your roster, I'm buying during this dip in value if his owners view his value as less now.

Seattle needed an RB, but they didn't need to spend a near Top-50 pick on one. It doesn't matter that Walker went 11 spots higher in a different draft. For fantasy purposes, they are both RBs who went in the 2nd round, which means they have the same pedigree.

If you care about touches and fantasy points, Walker's upside for an elite amount year-to-year was just capped by Seattle drafting Charbonnet. You aren't high on him, but Charbonnet is entering the NFL with a more well-rounded skillset than Walker. There's a reason everyone was disappointed in the pick, and it's because Charbonnet could've handled a big workload on a different team.

Walker's hot streak last year came when he was averaging around 70-80% snap share after Penny's injury.

I'm not saying Walker is bad or anything like that. He's clearly a very good back. I'm saying that Walker and Charbonnet are both capped now because of the pick. If Seattle would've drafted say...an RB in the 5th, then Walker being a Top-5 RB would still be justified for me. But today? I'd have to see it play out.

I was actually very high on Charbs, just don't think he's nearly the back Walker is. Charbs will play a role, but when I look at the RB land scape, there's no way I'm devaluing KW outside the top 5, personally. It may backfire, but I am going to float some offers out, see if I get any bites. I just find that the Seahawks don't really look at positional value like other teams do, I think they have a way they want to play, and they clearly needed another back to do that, Deejay Dallas etc. wasn't going to cut it, especially if KW misses any time. I agree KW is capped, he's not going to be a near 400 touch back, but I don't want him to be. He will likely be a mid/low RB1 as his ceiling, but at 22, if I can get years of that, I'm good.

Time will tell.

[tstafford]

I’m easily taking KW over the 3rd passing option for geno.
Even after lockett leaves, could we ever really see him
As more than a 80-1000 type of guy sharing with dk. Mid wr2 at best

I'm really not worried about KW with the Charb pick. Sucks for Charb, I like him, but Walker is the better player by quite a bit. Charb will have a role, the NFL is done with 90 percent snap share backs, pretty much. Walker will get 250 carries, or more, assuming health. I like JSN, but I'd move him in a second if I could get KW for him.

Young, productive RB's are just harder to acquire, and WR production I find is easier to get. Vets like Coop, Cooks etc over the past year or two were cheap and gave good production. There's just easier ways to get WR production. Everybody is free to build teams how they want, but I know I'd want quite a bit on top to move KW for JSN, and I would move JSN for KW in a heartbeat. I'm buying the dip, if I can.

I don't see how anyone can say that Walker isn't notably affected by Charbonnet. Walker entered this draft with a high chance of being one of the position leaders in snap share, and now Seattle just drafted someone with the same draft pedigree as Walker, a 93P target share in college, AND he's a back who can steal short yardage and goal line work.

I would not be buying Walker at Top-5 RB prices in the offseason.

Keep in mind that Walker had a 58% snap share last season and during the first five games of the season, Pete Carroll had him in a time share with Rashaad Penny. Penny had a 57% snap share in those five games. There is precedent for Carroll operating with two backs, and it can definitely limit Walker. If he loses receiving work and goal line usage, that's a BIG hit.

I see what you mean. And I want to clarify my point. I'm in no way intending to say that KW isn't impacted. He's hit and hit meaningfully. What I was trying to say is that Charb went from a top consideration in 1QB rookie drafts to more or less off my board (or at least low enough that I'll never get him). Walker still has some value and at least for me I'd rather own him than Charb.

The problem as evidenced by KW is that RBs that have elite dynasty value are very risky. I've been saying this for a while now - when a player climbs as quickly to such heights as KW it's time to aggressively explore cashing in. No new news that they age, but they can lose value other ways: the draft (KW), even a moderate drop in production (Najee), etc. I'm talking about a narrow sliver of players - RBs pulling round one/early round two 1Q start-up ADP. Walker's ADP peaked at #5 overall! I owned Walker and traded Walker/2.10 for Barkley/London. And while there are some salary considerations in that trade, it wasn't an obvious slam dunk trade at the time. People questioned my trading away a young, bell cow for an aging player. I learned my lesson on Najee - cash in on the RB values when they get too high. Trade down a tier in RB and get something else of value.

[alewilliam789]

Lmao we really went from oh my god 2nds are gonna be huge to after pick 6 I dont think I want anyone

I mean we got people ranking 3 TEs in the 1st of a 1 QB PPR lol. This class is gawd awful compared to last years class.

Last years top 10 was something like

1. Breece hall, Bijans better

2. Drake London, gibbs is better

3. Kenneth Walker, JSN is better and now Charbonet is in that mix

4. Garrett Wilson, QJ or Addison aren’t as good obviously

5. Treylon Burks, Addison and QJ are better imo

6. Jameson Williams, Zay Flowers, not much to go on here, I’ll give to jame o because he has at least stepped on an NFL field.

7. Chris Olave, he’s better than any equivalent here

8. George Pickens or achane, both seem to be highlight machines with a specific skill set, this one is closer than people may want to admit

9. Jahan Dotson or Charbonet, Definitely Dotson here Charbonet to Seattle is what killed the class but it also killed the 2022 class

10. Skyy moore or anyone from 2023. I’m taking my chances on some of these 2023 guys, even TEs in a 1 QB who would be here over Moore

There is some serious overvaluing of the 2022 class going on right now. 2023 did not live up the the crazy hype and this has been disappointing but 2022 has not been this special class it’s being made out to

I amean the top 3-4 WRS alone from 2022 imo are drastically better than any in this class. I mean we had a top 24 seasons out of Wilson, Olave, and Christian Watson and Pickens/London/Dotson were right on the cusp of being in that group too. KW was right outside RB1 territory and before Breece Hall’s injury that dude was on track to be at least a top 10 option at the position.

For me it’s Bijan, Gibbs, Flowers, or bust. Each of those players have the draft capital, analytical boxes checked, and athleticism to be studs. We are literally ranking a WR under 180 pounds that is entrenched as the second WR behind Justin Jefferson as a top 6 pick. Get out of here with that stuff man it’s terrible lol.

Damien Pierce rose up to like maybe 1.12 in one of my leagues because of just pure opportunity. This draft’s bad enough that I wouldn’t blame someone for reaching on Roschon starting at 1.08 even though he’s a player with a similar background of marginal production profile, marginal athleticism, and not great draft capital.

[Patsfan86]

2022 was brought up. i ranked what i remembered being the top 10 2022 draft selections against the perceived top 10 2023 draft selections, i probably could have worded it better. I’m not sure why people are bring up Dameon Pierce, I don’t remember him being a consensus top 10 in 2022 ADP. I could also be wrong but I don’t think Christian Watson was a top 10 2022 pick.

As far as Walker goes the points have been made already. We can’t all say as a dynasty community that volume matters so much then act like it doesn’t matter because it effects a guy we spent high draft cap on or traded a lot for. Charbonet matters and he matters a lot, i understand is annoying, I also understand that Walker is the better player. But we can’t just be dismissive of his draft cap and Seattles RB history

[CGW]

2022 was brought up. i ranked what i remembered being the top 10 2022 draft selections against the perceived top 10 2023 draft selections, i probably could have worded it better. I’m not sure why people are bring up Dameon Pierce. I could also be wrong but I don’t think Christian Watson was a top 10 2022 pick.

As far as Walker goes the points have been made already. We can’t all say as a dynasty community that volume matters so much then act like it doesn’t matter because it effects a guy we spent high draft cap on or traded a lot for. Charbonet matters and he matters a lot, i understand is annoying, I also understand that Walker is the better player. But we can’t just be dismissive of his draft cap and Seattles RB history

Watson went in the first in all four of my leagues. I haven't looked at ADP, but I think by the end of the off-season he was likely a 1st in the 8-10 range of both SF and 1QB.

I still think this draft is a good one to have high picks in. Bijan, Gibbs, JSN (plus the 3 QBs in SF) are all still high end prospects. It just turns out this class wasn't as clear cut late into the late 1st and into the 2nd. Probably makes the 2nds more attractive because you may land some diamonds in there for cheaper with people panicking about lack of clarity. Probably not a huge difference in the 1.07 and the early 2nds.

[CGW]

Bijan
Richardson
Gibbs
Young
Stroud
JSN
Addison
QJ
Flowers
Charbonet

SF looks a lot better than 1QB rankings. Having three high end QBs in the early 1st helps.

[Patsfan86]

Here’s the thing, we do this every year and complain about drafts and draft classes but almost every year (except for the extremely rare year like the 2017 draft) these classes in 1 QB end up exactly the same

2-3 stud players

2-3 weekly start players

2-4 flex plays

5-6 roster worthy players

The rest are all unuseable for fantasy. 2023 will end up the same, 2024 will end up the same 2092 will end up the same.

This is how I look at every draft and I do my best to get the guys with upside who have stud potential imo because there is so few. With all of the faults of a QJ, he’s also one of 2 WRs I see with stud potential. Back to 2022 I still see only 2 WRs with stud potential Wilson obviously and the other isn’t Olave, it’s London.

So in the end I see this class the same as every class because all I’ve seen is the same pattern for years now. If you don’t see it then that’s fine but In the end every class ends up the same. Even the touted 2020 class only had 2 fantasy studs in a 1 QB, JJ and JT, if you want to count higgins as a stud then go ahead. Lamb probably reached stud status last year as well but I want to see one more year of production like that before I def put him up there

[Jigga94]

22 vs 23 depends a lot on whether you play 1 QB or SF.

1QB: 22 easily blows away 23 outside of Bijan probably being the 1.01 in either. But the WR are way better for 22 at the top and the depth. Both RB classes ended up fairly weak with 2 guys at the top in each. TE is better for 23 but it doesn't move the needle much.

SF: this QB class is way better than last years. So when comparing the 2 classes in SF, I think the top end this year is slightly better, but the mid-late 1st and depth of 22 was much better.

[Ice]

2022 was brought up. i ranked what i remembered being the top 10 2022 draft selections against the perceived top 10 2023 draft selections, i probably could have worded it better. I’m not sure why people are bring up Dameon Pierce. I could also be wrong but I don’t think Christian Watson was a top 10 2022 pick.

As far as Walker goes the points have been made already. We can’t all say as a dynasty community that volume matters so much then act like it doesn’t matter because it effects a guy we spent high draft cap on or traded a lot for. Charbonet matters and he matters a lot, i understand is annoying, I also understand that Walker is the better player. But we can’t just be dismissive of his draft cap and Seattles RB history

Watson went in the first in all four of my leagues. I haven't looked at ADP, but I think by the end of the off-season he was likely a 1st in the 8-10 range of both SF and 1QB.

I still think this draft is a good one to have high picks in. Bijan, Gibbs, JSN (plus the 3 QBs in SF) are all still high end prospects. It just turns out this class wasn't as clear cut late into the late 1st and into the 2nd. Probably makes the 2nds more attractive because you may land some diamonds in there for cheaper with people panicking about lack of clarity. Probably not a huge difference in the 1.07 and the early 2nds.

Watson ended up as my number 2 WR last year in a very strong class.

1 QB League thoughts:

There are not nearly as many WR1 potential on their team in this draft compared to last but I see a few that could develop into WR1's on their team for fantasy purposes.

Love the top 2 RB's this year.

2023 is the TE class.

Don't think we have ever seen so many high rated prospects at TE in a single draft. I get the fantasy draft community despises TE's because it takes time for them to develop but I see 4 TE's worthy of 1st round fantasy grades or top 15 dynasty picks in this draft in 1 QB leagues.

Kincaid, Schoonmaker, Mayer, & LaPorta all went to Plus landing spots. I am also a big fan of Musgrave but never cared much for how this Green Bay coaching staff uses TE's.

[Patsfan86]

To the point above, TEs were fine as dynasty first round picks until the touted OJ Howard TE class (2017?) busted so badly. Now we have Kyle Pitts not putting up 3 million yards and 280 TDs a season like some people want. So people are scared of the position, I get it. But it’s totally ok to take them in the bottom half of the first of one QB Leagues. Are people really going to pass up on Kincaid just to take a 3rd round RB? Embrace the TE. They offer you an advantage that WR does not so take a shot, you can find a million Chris Olaves, you can only find 1 Travis Kelce.