Dynasty League Football Forum

Anteaters wrote: ↑Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:58 pm

MaddMadden wrote: ↑Fri Apr 30, 2021 5:37 pm Is hit rate on top 5 WRs that high, though?

2020: Jeudy, Lamb, Reagor, Ruggs, JJefferson
2019: DKMetcalf, N'KHarry, AJBrown, MarqBrown, Hakeem Butler
2018: DJMoore, Ridley, CKirk, Sutton, JamesWashington
2017: Corey Davis, Mike Williams, Juju, John Ross, Zay Jones

After the NFL draft of 2017, one fantasy site said this about Corey Davis: "Wide receivers have a longer dynasty shelf life than running backs," and used that to rank him the #1 fantasy rookie option over CMC, Mixon, and Dalvin Cook. It seems a lot of people are still thinking like that.

The hit rate is decent as far as providing useful fantasy production in the WR2-WR3 range. I wouldn't say the hit rate for top5 WRs outweighs the opportunity to draft a surefire RB1. I'd rather have a strong RB1 for 5 years than DJM or Jeudy or CoreyDavis for 10 years.

Of course, it all depends on team build. But if I had a gaping hole at RB, there's no way I'm passing Harris this season if I have a chance to draft him.

Vcize wrote: ↑Mon May 03, 2021 1:20 pm

Anteaters wrote: ↑Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:58 pm

MaddMadden wrote: ↑Fri Apr 30, 2021 5:37 pm Is hit rate on top 5 WRs that high, though?

2020: Jeudy, Lamb, Reagor, Ruggs, JJefferson
2019: DKMetcalf, N'KHarry, AJBrown, MarqBrown, Hakeem Butler
2018: DJMoore, Ridley, CKirk, Sutton, JamesWashington
2017: Corey Davis, Mike Williams, Juju, John Ross, Zay Jones

After the NFL draft of 2017, one fantasy site said this about Corey Davis: "Wide receivers have a longer dynasty shelf life than running backs," and used that to rank him the #1 fantasy rookie option over CMC, Mixon, and Dalvin Cook. It seems a lot of people are still thinking like that.

The hit rate is decent as far as providing useful fantasy production in the WR2-WR3 range. I wouldn't say the hit rate for top5 WRs outweighs the opportunity to draft a surefire RB1. I'd rather have a strong RB1 for 5 years than DJM or Jeudy or CoreyDavis for 10 years.

Of course, it all depends on team build. But if I had a gaping hole at RB, there's no way I'm passing Harris this season if I have a chance to draft him.

I figured he meant WRs drafted in the top 5 of the NFL draft.

MaddMadden wrote: ↑Mon May 03, 2021 5:55 pm

Vcize wrote: ↑Mon May 03, 2021 1:20 pm

Anteaters wrote: ↑Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:58 pm

2020: Jeudy, Lamb, Reagor, Ruggs, JJefferson
2019: DKMetcalf, N'KHarry, AJBrown, MarqBrown, Hakeem Butler
2018: DJMoore, Ridley, CKirk, Sutton, JamesWashington
2017: Corey Davis, Mike Williams, Juju, John Ross, Zay Jones

After the NFL draft of 2017, one fantasy site said this about Corey Davis: "Wide receivers have a longer dynasty shelf life than running backs," and used that to rank him the #1 fantasy rookie option over CMC, Mixon, and Dalvin Cook. It seems a lot of people are still thinking like that.

The hit rate is decent as far as providing useful fantasy production in the WR2-WR3 range. I wouldn't say the hit rate for top5 WRs outweighs the opportunity to draft a surefire RB1. I'd rather have a strong RB1 for 5 years than DJM or Jeudy or CoreyDavis for 10 years.

Of course, it all depends on team build. But if I had a gaping hole at RB, there's no way I'm passing Harris this season if I have a chance to draft him.

I figured he meant WRs drafted in the top 5 of the NFL draft.

Yeah that is what I meant. I dont think its a great track record. Chase did test insane and have a stellar season in 19, though.

Vcize wrote: ↑Mon May 03, 2021 1:20 pm

Anteaters wrote: ↑Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:58 pm

MaddMadden wrote: ↑Fri Apr 30, 2021 5:37 pm Is hit rate on top 5 WRs that high, though?

2020: Jeudy, Lamb, Reagor, Ruggs, JJefferson
2019: DKMetcalf, N'KHarry, AJBrown, MarqBrown, Hakeem Butler
2018: DJMoore, Ridley, CKirk, Sutton, JamesWashington
2017: Corey Davis, Mike Williams, Juju, John Ross, Zay Jones

After the NFL draft of 2017, one fantasy site said this about Corey Davis: "Wide receivers have a longer dynasty shelf life than running backs," and used that to rank him the #1 fantasy rookie option over CMC, Mixon, and Dalvin Cook. It seems a lot of people are still thinking like that.

The hit rate is decent as far as providing useful fantasy production in the WR2-WR3 range. I wouldn't say the hit rate for top5 WRs outweighs the opportunity to draft a surefire RB1. I'd rather have a strong RB1 for 5 years than DJM or Jeudy or CoreyDavis for 10 years.

Of course, it all depends on team build. But if I had a gaping hole at RB, there's no way I'm passing Harris this season if I have a chance to draft him.

I figured he meant WRs drafted in the top 5 of the NFL draft.

Anteaters wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 8:37 am oops
Ok, me being me, I gotta check out recent history. I'll list those in the first 5 picks, or the first WR chosen if none in the top 5.

2020: Ruggs #12
2019: MarBrown #25
2018: DJMoore #24
2017: CDavis #5, MikeWilliams #7
2016: CColeman #15
2015: ACooper #4, KevinWhite #7
2014: SWatkins #4, MEvans #7
2013: Tavon Auston #8
2012: Justin Blackmon #5

Not the most impressive list of WRs drafted over the past 9 years. In fact, of the dozen, I'd say only 3 have put in careers worthy of a top-8 fantasy pick. Obviously, someone back in 2012 felt the same way about Blackmon as some feel about Chase now. I'm not saying Chase is going to be a bust, but this list proves draft position for a WR doesn't come close to guaranteeing quality fantasy stats.

Vcize wrote: ↑Mon May 03, 2021 8:41 pm Here's the list, fwiw. Since 2000.

Corey Davis
Amari Cooper
Sammy Watkins
Justin Blackmon
AJ Green
Calvin Johnson
Braylon Edwards
Larry Fitzgerald
Charles Rodgers
Andre Johnson
Peter Warrick

Anteaters wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 9:04 am

Vcize wrote: ↑Mon May 03, 2021 8:41 pm Here's the list, fwiw. Since 2000.

Corey Davis
Amari Cooper
Sammy Watkins
Justin Blackmon
AJ Green
Calvin Johnson
Braylon Edwards
Larry Fitzgerald
Charles Rodgers
Andre Johnson
Peter Warrick

That top-5 list has a hit rate of 5/11. Not as bad as I'd assumed.

With picks 3, 5 and 8, I won't face the Harris/Chase debate because I'm sure Harris (and ETN) will be gone by 3, but I'll have to decide whether to take Javonte/Waddle/DSmith/Pitts with pick 5&8. I don't really want Pitts that high, but if I go Chase+Javonte with 3/5, I really don't want to get another WR either.

Vcize wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 10:02 am I think it's a pretty interesting list that can be looking at from multiple angles. For a bullish take on it...

4/11 fantasy stud future NFL HoFs is a pretty good rate for that type of career return.

8/11 at least hit a point where they were top 3 dynasty WRs overall at some point. So if you're looking for appreciating value and willing to sell at the peak there is a very good chance you can pull that off.

Of the guys that failed, most had either major injury issues or off the field issues that contributed. Rodgers had two major injuries out of the gate, Watkins picked up a bunch of lower leg injuries that sapped his explosiveness, and Blackmon got kicked out of the league for off the field issues. I would say only Warrick and Davis were true flat out busts that simply weren't good enough to be drafted in the top 5.

Anteaters wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 1:05 pm

Vcize wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 10:02 am I think it's a pretty interesting list that can be looking at from multiple angles. For a bullish take on it...

4/11 fantasy stud future NFL HoFs is a pretty good rate for that type of career return.

8/11 at least hit a point where they were top 3 dynasty WRs overall at some point. So if you're looking for appreciating value and willing to sell at the peak there is a very good chance you can pull that off.

Of the guys that failed, most had either major injury issues or off the field issues that contributed. Rodgers had two major injuries out of the gate, Watkins picked up a bunch of lower leg injuries that sapped his explosiveness, and Blackmon got kicked out of the league for off the field issues. I would say only Warrick and Davis were true flat out busts that simply weren't good enough to be drafted in the top 5.

That's fair, and I agree.

I'm still uncomfortable tagging any unproven rookie with future NFL HoF status. So lets say assume Chase has 5-7 years of being in the WR5-WR15 range - first 2 season warming up to that level, then 3 years of cooling down again, for a 10-12 year career. I think that's a fairly optimistic outlook.

I understand those choosing Chase because they think Harris is going to struggle - if you don't think Harris is going to be that good, it makes sense not to draft him high. I don't think Harris is going to struggle. My angle comes from the fact I think Harris is going to be a 3-down RB with top 10 stats for 4-5 years starting in 2021. The real question is which is more valuable - that kind of RB or the kind of WR I mentioned in the previous paragraph. As hard as it is to get those kinds of RBs, I think I'm going with Harris.