remedy29 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 2:48 pm
Jigga94 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:03 am
McCafsteez wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 9:41 am
That's not my point. Every TE you named was ranked 30th or worst in their respective dynasty rookie ranking. Here we are talking about blowing a top pick on Pitts. But to answer your question, yes, I would rather pay up for a proven TE stud than risk a top pick on an unknown TE.
I'd also rather pay up for the elite TE but I've had success finding them for free basically in the past, to your point with historical data.
From what I see, Pitts already costs more than Andrews, Hock and Fant, which is crazy. I'd assume an early 1st + late 1st would get you in the ballpark of one of the top ones (pending settings), Waller may only cost an early-mid 1st. I'd much rather pay that, get immediate TE production than to wait 2-3 years for a guy to breakout when history says it's not likely he does.
I get it, Pitts is an elite talent and the right landing spot could be huge for him. But if he costs more than Hock, Andrews and Fant... I'd rather trade the pick for one of those guys +.. they've already broken out and proven they are good. And Hock/Fant still cost less than their original rookie pick!
I am not arguing your preference to trade up for a proven TE such as Waller, or maybe even Andrews. However, your are not representing Hockenson or Fant correctly, specially if you consider them proven fantasy players.
Hockenson and Fant were Mizelle 2019 rookie 1.10 and 1.11 with ADP of 90 and 92 in May 2019. That fluctuated a bit by August, but not much.
Hockenson and Fant currently have ADP of 68 and 82.
2019 was a weak rookie draft class. Drafting either of these players would have been a better choice than many others. Hockenson and Fant are worth about the 1.10 to 1.12 rookie 2021 rookie picks per trade calculators. 2021 is likely going to be a stronger draft class than 2019, but we shall see with the number of RB/WR drafted in the first two rounds.
The only assessment that can be made is Hockenson and Fant have retained or slightly improved their value since being drafted.
Now regarding the claim that Hockenson and Fant are proven. Both players have had 5 career games with over 15 fantasy points. Both average about 7 PPR points in 2019. in 2020, they have averaged 11 and nearly 10 fantasy points per game.
The fact that 11 & 10 PPR points is considered proven for an NFL TE is the EXACT reason why people are high on Pitts.
2019 was perceived at the time to be a weak rookie class. They have certainly developed into a perfectly fine class
Tm 1
12 team, 1 ppr (1.5 te), 1Q,2R,2W,1T,2F,1D,1K
Q: Kyler, AR
R: JT, CMC, Barkley, chandler, T tracey
W: Evans, Chase, Mooney, Collins, Dell, Pickens
T: Kelce, Goedert, T johnson
D: nyj
K: Sanders
Tm 2
12 team, 1ppr (1.5 TE), 1Q,2R,2W,1T,1SF,1F,1D,1K
Q: Murray, Watson, Maye, McCarthy, R Wilson, howell
R: Swift, Walker, gus bus, Moss, Zeke,
W: Puka, Metcalf, Dell, Cooper, DJM, K Allen
T: Kelce, Pitts, t Johnson, bell
K: Tucker
D: CLE
Tm 3
14 team, SF, 1PPR (2 TE), 1Q,2R,3W,1T,1SF,2F
Q: Mahomes, Rodgers, Watson, Stafford, heinekie, flacco, browning
R: Mostert, walker, a Jones, Charb, Z White, R white, McLaughlin, wilson
W: Waddle, A St Brown, K Allen, Cooper, Nuk, watson
T: Kelce, Schultz, Thomas, Ferguson
Tm 4
https://www49.myfantasyleague.com/2024/ ... =0004&O=01
Tm 5
https://www45.myfantasyleague.com/2024/ ... =07&F=0009
Tm 6
https://www46.myfantasyleague.com/2024/ ... =0013&O=07