Dynasty League Football Forum

Bronco Billy wrote: ↑Mon Jan 25, 2021 2:22 pm Wow is this a weak RB class. If you want a difference maker you'd either better have one of the top 3 picks or being making an aggressive move to get there.

I don't know that i agree with this at all. Is it 2020's class, no, but most aren't. Is it weak? I don't think so at all

tresskid84 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 1:17 pm

Bronco Billy wrote: ↑Mon Jan 25, 2021 2:22 pm Wow is this a weak RB class. If you want a difference maker you'd either better have one of the top 3 picks or being making an aggressive move to get there.

I don't know that i agree with this at all. Is it 2020's class, no, but most aren't. Is it weak? I don't think so at all

There’s 2 guys I really like at RB and the rest have some serious warts or have size/speed issues that will pigeonhole them. IMO of course.

This group can’t come anywhere close to the 2020 class. And I do think FFers are going to draft 5 or more in a typical 1st round, but I think there will be some significant buyers regret by the time the smoke clears.

Bronco Billy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 2:00 pm

tresskid84 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 1:17 pm

Bronco Billy wrote: ↑Mon Jan 25, 2021 2:22 pm Wow is this a weak RB class. If you want a difference maker you'd either better have one of the top 3 picks or being making an aggressive move to get there.

I don't know that i agree with this at all. Is it 2020's class, no, but most aren't. Is it weak? I don't think so at all

There’s 2 guys I really like at RB and the rest have some serious warts or have size/speed issues that will pigeonhole them. IMO of course.

This group can’t come anywhere close to the 2020 class. And I do think FFers are going to draft 5 or more in a typical 1st round, but I think there will be some significant buyers regret by the time the smoke clears.

There are three i covet at this point, past that I will be going Pitts or WR

cmizelle wrote: ↑Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:16 am Landing spot makes a huge difference for all these guys...

Just look at last year: http://mizelle.net/mfl/2020/rookies/

CEH was sitting at consensus #10 pre draft, then jumped up to #2 post draft.

Yup. Thanks to your data Miz I wrote a lengthy article about ADP where landing spot is causing owners to make bad draft choices.

https://www.dynastyfootballlife.com/tal ... nding-spot

DJB wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 10:05 am

cmizelle wrote: ↑Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:16 am Landing spot makes a huge difference for all these guys...

Just look at last year: http://mizelle.net/mfl/2020/rookies/

CEH was sitting at consensus #10 pre draft, then jumped up to #2 post draft.

Yup. Thanks to your data Miz I wrote a lengthy article about ADP where landing spot is causing owners to make bad draft choices.

https://www.dynastyfootballlife.com/tal ... nding-spot

Nice writeup! Those screenshots look familiar

cmizelle wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 3:56 pm

DJB wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 10:05 am

cmizelle wrote: ↑Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:16 am Landing spot makes a huge difference for all these guys...

Just look at last year: http://mizelle.net/mfl/2020/rookies/

CEH was sitting at consensus #10 pre draft, then jumped up to #2 post draft.

Yup. Thanks to your data Miz I wrote a lengthy article about ADP where landing spot is causing owners to make bad draft choices.

https://www.dynastyfootballlife.com/tal ... nding-spot

Nice writeup! Those screenshots look familiar

Haha yup big thanks to you for that data!

DJB wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 10:05 am

cmizelle wrote: ↑Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:16 am Landing spot makes a huge difference for all these guys...

Just look at last year: http://mizelle.net/mfl/2020/rookies/

CEH was sitting at consensus #10 pre draft, then jumped up to #2 post draft.

Yup. Thanks to your data Miz I wrote a lengthy article about ADP where landing spot is causing owners to make bad draft choices.

https://www.dynastyfootballlife.com/tal ... nding-spot

I can tell you did a lot of work and took some time to put that article together, so I applaud you for that. However, I just feel like all you did was pick a couple data points that align with your narrative of take talent over situation. There are just as many data points to say that the boost in post draft ADP was justified.

2014: Bishop Sankey was the first RB taken in the NFL draft and then jumped up to RB1 in rookie drafts, but that was really a bad draft for RBs. Let's also take a look at the guys he jumped:Hyde, Ka'Deem Carey, Tre Mason, Crowell, and Seastrunk. Not exactly a who's who of fantasy success. Yes Sankey was a bust in both real life and fantasy, but Devonta Freeman got a nice boost in ADP with his landing spot post draft as well and that was the right call. As was fading the other guys. As for OBJ, he came out of the gates killing it, but the 3 WRs that jumped him were Brandin Cooks, Davante Adams, and ARob. Cooks has been a steady 1000 yard receiver every year and Adams and ARob are easily worth more than OBJ now.

2015: What a gross class, but Abdullah jumped ahead of Ajayi, Yeldon, Duke Johnson, and Tevin Coleman. Yes probably not the right move, but none of those guys are worth writing about or have done enough at the NFL level to argue. Maybe Tevin Coleman is, but again, meh. Agholar jumped ahead of DGB, Jaelen Strong, Perriman, and Funchess. He is easily a better pick than all of those guys.

2016: Derrick Henry dropped 2 spots, behind Michael Thomas and Shepard. That's it. Shepard jumped 3 spots. This really isn't some huge drop or rise at all with the 2 players you have mentioned.

2017: Juju dropped 2 spots in WR draft position but 8 spots overall. Him going at WR5 behind John Ross and Zay Jones doesn't look good, but some of those situation plays that moved ahead of him were Alvin Kamara and Kareem Hunt. Juju had this awesome year 2, but his other 3 seasons haven't been other worldly. Godwin slipped but one of the WRs that jumped him was Kenny Golladay, which I think those guys are close enough to each other that I wouldn't argue a ton for one over the other.

2018: Chubb dropped in what I definitely think was the biggest show of situation over talent drafting of any year of recent memory. Penny, Michel, and Royce Freeman skyrocketed up draft boards. Now Penny and Michel at least had first round capital, but yeah that was a miss by the community. I hate even discussing TEs because there are plenty of drafters with very strong opinions against drafting TEs early or at all (unless is TE premium or 2TE leagues).

2019: I like evaluating after 3 seasons because you very rarely have this year 4 or 5 breakout to dynasty stardom, but I'll go with your 2019 list. Henderson jumped, but RBs always get a boost and there wasn't much after him anyway. Campbell can't stay on the field, and I avoid the small burners at WR like the plague, but look who he went ahead of after the draft: JJAW, Deebo, Hollywood, Isabella, Mecole. I know there are some truthers of guys in that group, but again, it's not like he jumped ahead of DK or AJB in overall ADP.

Not going to even get into 2020 because it's only 1 year and a very weird year at that. This is a dynasty forum and not redraft.

Hindsight is always 20/20, and there are just as many guys that were vaulted by situation that worked out and plenty that didn't. There are plenty of talented players that don't make it. There just isn't this definitive link to suggest we should always take talent over situation or vice versa.

What’s the plan for the pre-draft rankings, is it time now? No combine, and I believe pro-days all finished up a dew days ago...

realmacaroni wrote: ↑Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:25 am What’s the plan for the pre-draft rankings, is it time now? No combine, and I believe pro-days all finished up a dew days ago...

Since there wasn't a combine this year, I was just going to skip the pre-draft phase. After the draft I'll flip it to post-draft.

I think there’s value in doing the mid-level predraft ranks. Just looking at precombine, I can see quite a lot would be different. But the data is out there, so no biggie, your prerogative and all good by me

Just jonesing to rank and review! Haha

Guys, what is the story with some of the AA prospects in this draft? I tried finding information on Twitter about this, but I was left thoroughly confused. Are players in the MEAC/AA eligible for April's draft?

I've flipped the rookie rankings page to "Pre Draft". This was really designed to capture rankings after the combine, but there wasn't one, so this will at least capture how people are viewed right before the draft.

The address is: http://mizelle.net/mfl/2021/rookies/

I forgot to mention, ill leave things in this "pre-draft" status until the draft starts (4/29).

Can u please add Dyami Brown to the rookie ranks? Thanks

realmacaroni wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:33 pm Can u please add Dyami Brown to the rookie ranks? Thanks

Done. You will need to clear your browser cache in order for him to show up.