Dynasty League Football Forum

Dobbins (will be worth next year's 1.01 or 1.02)
Taylor (will be an elite asset next year, just a TICK behind Dobbins in value)

CEH (will be seen as worth an early 1st, but not a 1st round startup like he was this year)

Gibson
Swift
Robinson

Akers
Moss

Kelley
Dillon

jenkins.math wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:04 pm

AussieMate wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:19 pm
I was one of those people who had Dobbins as their favourite back pre-draft and loved his landing spot for 2021, my main reason to have him ahead of both JT and CEH is they haven't "run away" with it like was expected, I still rate them both going forward.

CEH is averaging 4.7 yards per carry and halfway through his rookie season is on pace for 1552 yards from scrimmage. What exactly would he need to do to "run away" with it?

I can totally get on board with some of the rankings being based on a lack of updating pre-draft rankings at this point in their career, but the level of disappointment people seem to have with CEH seems to be based on unreal expectations and not on his actual numbers to this point.

Considering the team he went to I would say he has been disappointing.
Considering the chiefs went out and got Bell I'd say that's not a +.
His numbers may look good but I haven't seen so much from him to have "run away" with the top spot moving into 2021 as I stated before I liked Dobbins more coming into the draft.
If you looked at any of my previous posts on this thread you would see I have CEH 2nd so it's not like I've moved him off the board, I just liked and still like Dobbins more as a player going into 2021 (when I drafted Dobbins in my league I told everyone I was expecting to wait on him).
To answer your question as to what he would need to do, if CEH came out and performed at his draft value as a top 4-6 RB then he would have moved himself above Dobbins for me.

CEH
Dobbins
Swift
JT
Robinson
Gibson
Akers
Moss

Robinson has looked great, no doubt but draft capital DOES matter. The other backs i listed before him are still going to be valued more highly in dynasty unless one massively flops the rest of the season. The top 3 have all flashed and have things working for them (CEH and Dobbins are in really good situations, Swift has some really nice TD upside and is now finally getting more snaps) I think JT will be just fine too. Experienced dynasty owners know that RBs like Robinson happen often and then just disappear. Im not saying he is going to do that but it happens a lot and they have every right to be weary of it. I could be totally wrong. We will see.

Patsfan86 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:28 pm CEH
Dobbins
Swift
JT
Robinson
Gibson
Akers
Moss

Robinson has looked great, no doubt but draft capital DOES matter. The other backs i listed before him are still going to be valued more highly in dynasty unless one massively flops the rest of the season. The top 3 have all flashed and have things working for them (CEH and Dobbins are in really good situations, Swift has some really nice TD upside and is now finally getting more snaps) I think JT will be just fine too. Experienced dynasty owners know that RBs like Robinson happen often and then just disappear. Im not saying he is going to do that but it happens a lot and they have every right to be weary of it. I could be totally wrong. We will see.

I think this is the list I most agree with, at least with the knowledge we have now. I would put Gibson over Robinson though just due to preference.

jenkins.math wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:04 pm

AussieMate wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:19 pm
I was one of those people who had Dobbins as their favourite back pre-draft and loved his landing spot for 2021, my main reason to have him ahead of both JT and CEH is they haven't "run away" with it like was expected, I still rate them both going forward.

CEH is averaging 4.7 yards per carry and halfway through his rookie season is on pace for 1552 yards from scrimmage. What exactly would he need to do to "run away" with it?

I can totally get on board with some of the rankings being based on a lack of updating pre-draft rankings at this point in their career, but the level of disappointment people seem to have with CEH seems to be based on unreal expectations and not on his actual numbers to this point.

what's he been over the last 2 weeks?

CEH
Dobbins
JT
Swift
Akers
Gibson
Robinson
Moss

lukkynumber13 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:57 pm Dobbins (will be worth next year's 1.01 or 1.02)
Taylor (will be an elite asset next year, just a TICK behind Dobbins in value)

CEH (will be seen as worth an early 1st, but not a 1st round startup like he was this year)

Gibson
Swift
Robinson

Akers
Moss

Kelley
Dillon

What have you seen in Taylor that makes you think this??? Just to note, I am still very high on him as well.

jomaed wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 7:42 pm

lukkynumber13 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:57 pm Dobbins (will be worth next year's 1.01 or 1.02)
Taylor (will be an elite asset next year, just a TICK behind Dobbins in value)

CEH (will be seen as worth an early 1st, but not a 1st round startup like he was this year)

Gibson
Swift
Robinson

Akers
Moss

Kelley
Dillon

What have you seen in Taylor that makes you think this??? Just to note, I am still very high on him as well.

I just have not seen him look BAD, the way some would have you believe. I loved how he looked at Wisky, and am holding out hope that he just needs some time to adjust to the pros.

just a reminder that OP was a prediction of ADP, nothing to do with personal rankings

Krypto_King wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:21 am just a reminder that OP was a prediction of ADP, nothing to do with personal rankings

So personal feelings didn't weigh into his prediction? Is OP man or machine?

TD41 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:25 am

Krypto_King wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:21 am just a reminder that OP was a prediction of ADP, nothing to do with personal rankings

So personal feelings didn't weigh into his prediction? Is OP man or machine?

Krypto_King wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 6:55 pm

jenkins.math wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:04 pm

AussieMate wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:19 pm
I was one of those people who had Dobbins as their favourite back pre-draft and loved his landing spot for 2021, my main reason to have him ahead of both JT and CEH is they haven't "run away" with it like was expected, I still rate them both going forward.

CEH is averaging 4.7 yards per carry and halfway through his rookie season is on pace for 1552 yards from scrimmage. What exactly would he need to do to "run away" with it?

I can totally get on board with some of the rankings being based on a lack of updating pre-draft rankings at this point in their career, but the level of disappointment people seem to have with CEH seems to be based on unreal expectations and not on his actual numbers to this point.

what's he been over the last 2 weeks?

I didn't realize dynasty rankings were based on only 2 weeks worth of data....

jenkins.math wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:45 am

Krypto_King wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 6:55 pm

jenkins.math wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:04 pm

CEH is averaging 4.7 yards per carry and halfway through his rookie season is on pace for 1552 yards from scrimmage. What exactly would he need to do to "run away" with it?

I can totally get on board with some of the rankings being based on a lack of updating pre-draft rankings at this point in their career, but the level of disappointment people seem to have with CEH seems to be based on unreal expectations and not on his actual numbers to this point.

what's he been over the last 2 weeks?

I didn't realize dynasty rankings were based on only 2 weeks worth of data....

Only when referring to the guy you don't like, whether it be CEH or Taylor, etc.

CGW wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:48 am

jenkins.math wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:45 am

Krypto_King wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 6:55 pm

what's he been over the last 2 weeks?

I didn't realize dynasty rankings were based on only 2 weeks worth of data....

Only when referring to the guy you don't like, whether it be CEH or Taylor, etc.

His YPC over the past two weeks is actually higher at ~4.8 than that season average of 4.7. His volume of course has been down. CEH did score a TD in the Denver game where the whole offense barely played due to stalled drives and defensive/ST touchdowns. The passing game got whatever they wanted against the Jets and it was a concerted effort to get the pass game going considering the spite of lower passing numbers the Chiefs have had this season.

I'm saying all of this because I assume the point being made is that the presence of Bell over the past two games is the reason for lack of optimism going forward? He probably won't hit his projected season totals through the end of this year because of Bell. But Bell will be gone next year and the Chiefs won't be investing much in the position with Damien on the roster. Maybe a late draft selection. Watching the games I don't know how you could be disappointed with CEH. He's been better than advertised as a runner.

The problem is people expected monster numbers due to situation and he hasn't lived up to those elevated expectations. However, he has the rushing/receiving output to have done so if he could just find his way into the endzone a bit more. He's the RB10 through week 8 (though without a bye), and only has 2 TDs. Positive regression is coming. If he had 4 more TDs (he did have two legit ones called back for unrelated penalties) he would be the RB4 overall and make him the RB8 in avg PPG with a few injured guys with fewer points ahead of him. If I could get CEH for Dobbins/JT/Swift this offseason based on whatever is going on in this thread, I'd be jumping on it.

jcc6fd wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 11:14 am

CGW wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:48 am

jenkins.math wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:45 am

I didn't realize dynasty rankings were based on only 2 weeks worth of data....

Only when referring to the guy you don't like, whether it be CEH or Taylor, etc.

His YPC over the past two weeks is actually higher at ~4.8 than that season average of 4.7. His volume of course has been down. CEH did score a TD in the Denver game where the whole offense barely played due to stalled drives and defensive/ST touchdowns. The passing game got whatever they wanted against the Jets and it was a concerted effort to get the pass game going considering the spite of lower passing numbers the Chiefs have had this season.

I'm saying all of this because I assume the point being made is that the presence of Bell over the past two games is the reason for lack of optimism going forward? He probably won't hit his projected season totals through the end of this year because of Bell. But Bell will be gone next year and the Chiefs won't be investing much in the position with Damien on the roster. Maybe a late draft selection. Watching the games I don't know how you could be disappointed with CEH. He's been better than advertised as a runner.

The problem is people expected monster numbers due to situation and he hasn't lived up to those elevated expectations. However, he has the rushing/receiving output to have done so if he could just find his way into the endzone a bit more. He's the RB10 through week 8 (though without a bye), and only has 2 TDs. Positive regression is coming. If he had 4 more TDs (he did have two legit ones called back for unrelated penalties) he would be the RB4 overall and make him the RB8 in avg PPG with a few injured guys with fewer points ahead of him. If I could get CEH for Dobbins/JT/Swift this offseason based on whatever is going on in this thread, I'd be jumping on it.

At this point, what makes you think that he's a significantly better runner than Damien Williams?

Those counting stats are nice and all.. but he's been fairly unimpressive in most of these games aside from HOU and BUF -- which are fairly weak run defenses.

There is an assumption that he's going to be the bellcow because he's an Andy Reid running back.. but Reid is proving that he's not married to that concept. The Chiefs were looking for RB help all season -- Fournette earlier, and then Bell once he's on the market. Some people will say "duh of course they'd want to add a talented RB to the roster".. but that's not what team's that believe in their RB have historically done. Doug Pederson for instance said that Sanders is our guy and they're not interested in bringing in additional RBs. If a team truly believes they've got their franchise back they just aren't looking to add "talented" RBs to the roster.

The Eagles also looked to add Melvin Gordon for cheap his rookie year so it's not as if I'm damning CEH's talent. I believe, there is a very good chance that CEH grows into his role -- and I'm optimistic he will get there... but it's not an assured thing. We knew he'd be a somewhat limited runner, but I've been very disappointed with his receiving ability up to this point.

I just don't know what he's done to this point to make people have as much faith in him as they do. Given the circumstances, I'm left wanting more.