Early 2020 rankings- top 12 WRs

[mild]

WR is really difficult. For me:

MT
Nuk
Evans

Cooper
Godwin
Chark
Golladay
Sutton
Moore

Adams
OBJ
Keenan Allen
(quite a few others I'd put in this group but after these three)

Criminal (lol) snubbing of Tyreek hill in this list.

I'd easily have him over Golladay and Chark and Cooper (!!).

[Kmani6]

Feel good about this list, I tried to use very little recency bias and keep it primarily skill based. Players are in no particular order in their respective tiers.

Tier 1:
MT
Hopkins
Hill
Adams
Evans

Tier 2:
Cooper
Julio
Keenan Allen
Godwin
OBJ

Tier 3:
JuJu
Golladay
Moore
Diggs
Kupp

Tier 4:
Chark
Thielan
Lockett
Sutton
Gallup

I can see the case for swapping OBJ into tier 3 and bumping either Golladay, JuJu, or Moore up into Tier 2, but I still prefer OBJ. I could also see the case for moving Chark into tier 3 instead of Kupp. I think they are both of similar talent so I went with which offense I had more faith in. I can also see Boyd for Sutton/Gallup/Lockett, and if they drafted burrow, which is almost a guarantee, I’d be really tempted to move him.

Keep in mind this is on a 4 year time scale for me, so for example Moore and Cooper’s few year age difference wasn’t a huge factor just because I don’t think it’s easy to predict WR success too many years in advance. For example, take a look at the best WRs 4 years ago and it changes so much. Julio is a weird exception here.

[Pullo Vision]

Based on the last few rankings, I'm undervaluing Godwin. My concern with him is he's the #2 WR (assuming Evans is still there) with questions at QB. I could even see Arians being gone next year. He's had great production this year, but his floor and ceiling could take a hit over the next year-
-New coach
-New QB
-More potent run game

Adams being in the top tier with Hopkins and Thomas is strange. Don't see the combination of his talent and offense warranting that ranking. In terms of established stars, could be he and Beckham are buy lows.

[dynastyninja]

WR is really difficult. For me:

MT
Nuk
Evans

Cooper
Godwin
Chark
Golladay
Sutton
Moore

Adams
OBJ
Keenan Allen
(quite a few others I'd put in this group but after these three)

Criminal (lol) snubbing of Tyreek hill in this list.

I'd easily have him over Golladay and Chark and Cooper (!!).

Criminal is the appropriate word and is why I don't rank him

[Forza_Azzurri]

Based on the last few rankings, I'm undervaluing Godwin. My concern with him is he's the #2 WR (assuming Evans is still there) with questions at QB. I could even see Arians being gone next year. He's had great production this year, but his floor and ceiling could take a hit over the next year-
-New coach
-New QB
-More potent run game

Adams being in the top tier with Hopkins and Thomas is strange. Don't see the combination of his talent and offense warranting that ranking. In terms of established stars, could be he and Beckham are buy lows.

Why do you think Arians might not be back? ... Tampa has to be very satisfied with the team’s performance, I’d say Winston improved although his turnovers are still a major issue. Unless Arians has a health issue, I don’t see any reason that he won’t be back.

[briank]

Based on the last few rankings, I'm undervaluing Godwin. My concern with him is he's the #2 WR (assuming Evans is still there) with questions at QB. I could even see Arians being gone next year. He's had great production this year, but his floor and ceiling could take a hit over the next year-
-New coach
-New QB
-More potent run game

Adams being in the top tier with Hopkins and Thomas is strange. Don't see the combination of his talent and offense warranting that ranking. In terms of established stars, could be he and Beckham are buy lows.

Why do you think Arians might not be back? ... Tampa has to be very satisfied with the team’s performance, I’d say Winston improved although his turnovers are still a major issue. Unless Arians has a health issue, I don’t see any reason that he won’t be back.

Carson Palmer's first year with Arians was fairly comparable. Winston has been arguably better. You have to take the bad with the good with Winston. I would be interested to see how many of his interceptions were tipped. I'm not trying to say that he doesn't make mistakes, but I have noticed several tipped interceptions go against him this year. I think there's a good chance they give Winston another year with Arians.

[pvillebiker]

WR is really difficult. For me:

MT
Nuk
Evans

Cooper
Godwin
Chark
Golladay
Sutton
Moore

Adams
OBJ
Keenan Allen
(quite a few others I'd put in this group but after these three)

Criminal (lol) snubbing of Tyreek hill in this list.

I'd easily have him over Golladay and Chark and Cooper (!!).

Criminal is the appropriate word and is why I don't rank him

[hoos89]

I'd have the rookies loser than top 12.

Maybe, but they should at least be on the list of also-rans if AJG is on there.

[Kmani6]

Theres' no way they move on from Winston or Arians in my opinion. They were extremely close in a ton of the first half of the season games and could have a much better record. Winston is going to break 5000 yards this year, and he is the first NFL Qb whos thrown back to back 450 yard games. He definitely has major TO issues, but he also has a nonexistent run game and a pretty awful line.

Also, for the adams comment, I'm not necessarily comparing him to MT or Hopkins. If you want to think of it as having MT and Hopkins 1/2 in any order, that's fine with me, but I just wanted to keep the tier's consistent by including 5 players each. The other thing is WR position fluctuates a lot in terms of the top players. In 2016, Evans finished like 2nd overall, 1st in standard I think, but in 2017/18 he was around 10. Then this year again he was top 3 pre-injury. I value Adams having Rodgers throwing to him, and keep in mind he was tied for 1st last year in scoring over MT. That's why I said trying not to keep any recency bias.

Here is a more broken down version.

Tier 1:
MT
Hopkins

Tier 2:
Hill
Adams
Evans

Tier 3:
Cooper
Julio
Keenan Allen
Godwin
OBJ

Tier 4:
JuJu
Moore
Golladay
Diggs

Tier 5:
Kupp
Chark

Tier 6:
Thielan
Lockett
Sutton
Gallup

[Kmani6]

Theres' no way they move on from Winston or Arians in my opinion. They were extremely close in a ton of the first half of the season games and could have a much better record. Winston is going to break 5000 yards this year, and he is the first NFL Qb whos thrown back to back 450 yard games. He definitely has major TO issues, but he also has a nonexistent run game and a pretty awful line.

Also, for the adams comment, I'm not necessarily comparing him to MT or Hopkins. If you want to think of it as having MT and Hopkins 1/2 in any order, that's fine with me, but I just wanted to keep the tier's consistent by including 5 players each. The other thing is WR position fluctuates a lot in terms of the top players. In 2016, Evans finished like 2nd overall, 1st in standard I think, but in 2017/18 he was around 10. Then this year again he was top 3 pre-injury. I value Adams having Rodgers throwing to him, and keep in mind he was tied for 1st last year in scoring over MT. That's why I said trying not to keep any recency bias.

Here is a more broken down version.

Tier 1:
MT
Hopkins

Tier 2:
Hill
Adams
Evans

Tier 3:
Cooper
Julio
Keenan Allen
Godwin
OBJ

Tier 4:
JuJu
Moore
Golladay


Tier 5:
Chark
Diggs

Tier 6:
Thielan
Lockett
Sutton
Gallup

[Pullo Vision]

Here is a more broken down version.

Tier 1:
MT
Hopkins

Tier 2:
Hill
Adams
Evans

Tier 3:
Cooper
Julio
Keenan Allen
Godwin
OBJ

Tier 4:
JuJu
Moore
Golladay
Diggs

Tier 5:
Kupp
Chark

Tier 6:
Thielan
Lockett
Sutton
Gallup

I can really get behind this. I'd do some minor tweaks, but only 2 players. Godwin still feels too high- Gallup is a better placing of a team's #2 WR. They ain't the same skill or situation wise but a better placing than top 10.

[kmbryant09]

I feel like it's absolutely pointless to try and "rank" WR's heading into next year. Never can I remember a more unusual season for WR production, and how you can basically categorize every top40 WR into one of 4 categories (in no particular order):

1. Veteran producer & borderline stud that you set & forget:
M. Thomas
D. Hopkins
D. Adams
T. Hill
J. Jones
M. Evans
K. Allen
A. Robinson
A. Cooper

2. Young, up-and-coming talents, but question marks about sustainability & elite traits:
C. Godwin
C. Kupp
K. Golladay
D.J. Moore
D.J. Chark
T. Lockett
D. Parker
C. Sutton
C. Ridley
T. Boyd
C. Kirk (??)
C. Samuel (??)
A. Miller (??)
M. Williams (??)

3. Veterans that are either uninspiring, on the decline, or coming off down seasons by their standards:
O. Beckham Jr.
J. Smith-Schuster
S. Diggs
T.Y. Hilton
A. Thielen
A.J. Green
S. Watkins
B. Cooks
R. Woods
J. Landry

4. Rookies who are balling out:
A.J. Brown
T. McLaurin
D.K. Metcalf
D. Samuel
M. Brown
D. Slayton

That covers most of the top40 (although I'm probably leaving out a few obvious names), and it's nearly pointless to debate which young, talented WR is more valuable than a producing veteran as it all depends on roster construction and owner's preference. Obviously, if you're young & rebuilding, try to stock-pile a bunch of guys from groups #2 & 3.

[bjd5211]

If you're going all the way to 40 on rankings for next year, you have to include some of the incoming rookie WRs, especially if we are talking value rather than just where you think they'll finish statistically. There's zero chance that there will be 40 WRs valued over Jeudy or Lamb over the offseason or a year from now.

[kmbryant09]

If you're going all the way to 40 on rankings for next year, you have to include some of the incoming rookie WRs, especially if we are talking value rather than just where you think they'll finish statistically. There's zero chance that there will be 40 WRs valued over Jeudy or Lamb over the offseason or a year from now.

Correct, just talking about players currently in the NFL.

[CGW]

I feel like it's absolutely pointless to try and "rank" WR's heading into next year. Never can I remember a more unusual season for WR production, and how you can basically categorize every top40 WR into one of 4 categories (in no particular order):

1. Veteran producer & borderline stud that you set & forget:
M. Thomas
D. Hopkins
D. Adams
T. Hill
J. Jones
M. Evans
K. Allen
A. Robinson
A. Cooper

2. Young, up-and-coming talents, but question marks about sustainability & elite traits:
C. Godwin
C. Kupp
K. Golladay
D.J. Moore
D.J. Chark
T. Lockett
D. Parker
C. Sutton
C. Ridley
T. Boyd
C. Kirk (??)
C. Samuel (??)
A. Miller (??)
M. Williams (??)

3. Veterans that are either uninspiring, on the decline, or coming off down seasons by their standards:
O. Beckham Jr.
J. Smith-Schuster
S. Diggs
T.Y. Hilton
A. Thielen
A.J. Green
S. Watkins
B. Cooks
R. Woods
J. Landry

4. Rookies who are balling out:
A.J. Brown
T. McLaurin
D.K. Metcalf
D. Samuel
M. Brown
D. Slayton

That covers most of the top40 (although I'm probably leaving out a few obvious names), and it's nearly pointless to debate which young, talented WR is more valuable than a producing veteran as it all depends on roster construction and owner's preference. Obviously, if you're young & rebuilding, try to stock-pile a bunch of guys from groups #2 & 3.

Still not sure I'd want Godwin, and to a lesser extent kupp/golladay, in the same tier as Curtis Samuel, Watkins, green, Hilton, etc. Maybe make a sandwich tier between your tier 1 and 2.