Rookie WR Production 2023

[Bronco Billy]

Team 2 in sig

Would you trade away Demario Douglas for Roschon Johnson straight up?

No way

[Dynasty DeLorean]

- Jayden Reed making a charge towards relevancy


Update for Week 10

67+ Rookie Reception Yards per Game
90% Stud
0% Good
10% Bust
Puka Nacua [91] [OpenScore: 59]


57-66 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
50% Stud
21% Good
29% Bust
Tank Dell [63] [OpenScore: 80]
Jordan Addison [60] [OpenScore: 46]


47-56 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
34% Stud
41% Good
24% Bust
Zay Flowers [54] [OpenScore: 73]
Josh Downs [52] [OpenScore: 68]
Michael Wilson [48] [OpenScore: 36]


-------^^^GOOD^^^-------------vvvBADvvv---------------------------


37-46 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
13% Stud
13% Good
74% Bust
Jayden Reed [46] [OpenScore: 50]
Rashee Rice [42] [OpenScore: 54]
Demario Douglas [40] [OpenScore: 33]


27-36 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
13% Stud
8% Good
79% Bust
Jaxon Smith-Njigba [36] [OpenScore: 46]
Jonathan Mingo [27] [OpenScore: 28]
Marvin Mims [27]


Less than 27
Will have to update these hit rates...
2-10% Stud
4-24% Good or better
Dontayvion Wicks [26] [OpenScore: 57]
Jalin Hyatt [21]
Trey Palmer [20] [OpenScore: 46]
Quentin Johnston [18]
Jake Bobo [16]
Tre Tucker [13]
Jalen Brooks [13]
A.T. Perry [12]
+20 others...


---------------------------------------------------
*Stud = 3+ seasons of 1k+ receiving yards
*Good = 3+ seasons 750+ receiving yards
*Based on 1995-2015 sample
*Minimum of 9 games played
*PFF Grade = PFF Receiving Grade
--------------------------------------------------


______________________________________



Rookie TE Report: Week 10

Looking for:
Yards per Game - 20+
Catch Percentage - 68%+
Yards per Target - 8+
Games played - 9+

These criteria may help identify future studs at the TE position. Until last year, only 11 players had qualified for this list since 1995, with most of them being either studs or promising players. Chigoziem Okonkwo became the 12th player added to this list last year.


- These TE's going back and forth is like a heavy weight bout. It was Laporta early, then Kincaid, and now Musgrave comes out of nowhere?!? In any event, this is the TE class we've been waiting for.

Sam LaPorta [OpenScore: 42]
52 YPG
73% Catch Percentage
7.4 YPT

Dalton Kincaid [OpenScore: 63]
43 YPG
88% Catch Percentage
7.6 YPT

Luke Musgrave [OpenScore: 57]
34 YPG
74% Catch Percentage
8 YPT

Michael Mayer [OpenScore: 45]
17 YPG
66% Catch Percentage
7.4 YPT

_______________________________________

Rookie Snap Share % Week 1-10
*left early/injury


WR
Puka - 78, 86, 96, 95, 100, 96, 93, 92, 81, bye
Flowers- 84, 77, 93, 98, 99, 89, 72, 75, 68, 87
Addison- 56, 69, 71, 58, 75, 86, 74, 94, 97, 97
Dell - 48, 79, 61, 70, 36*, 0*, bye, 78, 85, 96
Wilson - 90, 43, 67, 70, 75, 88, 83, 88, 0*, 89
Mingo - 87, 98, 33*, 0*, 86, 93, bye, 99, 96, 98

Downs - 79, 75, 80, 73, 71, 78, 71, 80, 20*, 25*
JSN - 59, 56, 44, 53, bye, 72, 63, 66, 82, 62
Palmer- 34, 49, 72, 75, bye, 66, 64, 81, 73, 83
Douglas- 41, 8, 24, 33, 13, 0*, 62, 77, 83, 72
QJ - 27, 15, 24, 51, bye, 48, 54, 70, 83, 85
Rice - 31, 18, 51, 46, 30, 49, 59, 61, 68, bye

Reed - 53, 56, 66, 67, 50, bye, 48, 78, 39, 51
Hyatt - 36, 21, 32, 60, 46, 73, 71, 33, 59, 30*
Mims - 27, 24, 24, 35, 32, 23, 31, 39, bye, 39
Wicks - 62, 50, 66, 58, 22, bye, 22, 34, 32, 44
Boutte - 69, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 38
Tillman - 15, 10, 15, 20, bye, 0, 0, 0, 74, 85

TE
Laporta - 83, 82, 74, 80, 87, 83, 72, 94, bye, 80
Kincaid - 80, 60, 51, 52, 53, 0*, 61, 84, 90, 76
Musgrave- 75, 88, 86, 25*, 69, bye, 67, 72, 83, 74
Mayer - 49, 40, 47, 51, 66, 81, 71, 91, 88, 88

Schoonmaker- 28, 36, 23, 56, 41, 27, bye, 38, 16, 36
Washington- 38, 48, 47, 42, 70, bye, 53, 15, 49, 51
Kraft - 22, 4, 13, 23, 40, bye, 50, 28, 39, 51


QJ, Tillman and Douglas seeing an uptick with a lot of starters going down/traded

Top 4 TE looking very good as of late

____________________________________________

[Orenthal Shames]

A.T. Perry looking like he'll get some run at WR2 in NO with the Michael Thomas injury.

[Cameron Giles]

Open Score:

Tank Dell: 80
Zay Flowers: 73
Josh Downs: 68
Dalton Kincaid: 63
Puka Nacua: 59
Dontayvion Wicks: 57
Luke Musgrave: 57
Rashee Rice: 54
Jayden Reed: 50
Trey Palmer: 46
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 46
Jordan Addison: 46
Sam LaPorta: 42
Michael Wilson: 36
Demario Douglas: 33
Jonathan Mingo: 28

Bold = Top 20 Open Score

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Open Score:
Michael Wilson: 36
Demario Douglas: 33
Jonathan Mingo: 28

Hmm, I’m thinking these guys are sells. Mingo maybe a hold since you won’t be able to get anything for him, but Wilson could probably fetch close to a 1st and Douglas maybe close to a 2nd.

[CGW]

Open Score:
Michael Wilson: 36
Demario Douglas: 33
Jonathan Mingo: 28

Hmm, I’m thinking these guys are sells. Mingo maybe a hold since you won’t be able to get anything for him, but Wilson could probably fetch close to a 1st and Douglas maybe close to a 2nd.

I need to see a lot more on this open scores thing before I make buy/sell decision off it. I'm guessing most leagues Wilson/Douglas would be a 2nd at best and mingo probably nothing...so I'm still holding onto all of these guys hoping for some late season hype.

[Anteaters]

Open Score:
Michael Wilson: 36
Demario Douglas: 33
Jonathan Mingo: 28

Hmm, I’m thinking these guys are sells. Mingo maybe a hold since you won’t be able to get anything for him, but Wilson could probably fetch close to a 1st and Douglas maybe close to a 2nd.

I with you. Especially on Mingo. I've been trying to talk myself into thinking he just needs a little more time. But the lackluster production coupled with the fact he can't get open is driving nails through his coffin for me.

OTOH, gotta love Dell at 80.

[Bronco Billy]

Open Score:
Michael Wilson: 36
Demario Douglas: 33
Jonathan Mingo: 28

Hmm, I’m thinking these guys are sells. Mingo maybe a hold since you won’t be able to get anything for him, but Wilson could probably fetch close to a 1st and Douglas maybe close to a 2nd.

I saw what Wilson was capable of doing to DBs at the Senior Bowl. There’s a lot of iceberg below that surface. I’m guessing he just needs to let the game slow down for him.

[Cameron Giles]

Open Score:
Michael Wilson: 36
Demario Douglas: 33
Jonathan Mingo: 28

Hmm, I’m thinking these guys are sells. Mingo maybe a hold since you won’t be able to get anything for him, but Wilson could probably fetch close to a 1st and Douglas maybe close to a 2nd.

I need to see a lot more on this open scores thing before I make buy/sell decision off it. I'm guessing most leagues Wilson/Douglas would be a 2nd at best and mingo probably nothing...so I'm still holding onto all of these guys hoping for some late season hype.

A few things:

- If you have a player who appears multiple times in the <40 of Open Score, then it's not great to say the least. Especially if it happens in their first two seasons. See: Alec Pierce, whose best case at this point looks like Gabe Davis or some other inconsistent field stretcher who can't separate.

- Speaking of Gabe Davis. If you filter for combined seasons, you'll further see that anyone <40 is pretty much irrelevant or was good at one point in their career, but became washed. The best players <40 for combined seasons from 2017-2023 are Mike Williams and....Gabe Davis. Everyone else is roster clogger talent or in the twilight years of their careers.

Open Score still has a ways to go, but so far it does seem to have solid value in terms of weeding out the highs and lows of players who:

1. Can increase their stability of fantasy production because of separation skills
2. Players who may be unlikely to have a path to fantasy production because of lack of separation skills (<40)

I'd definitely have some concern if a rookie is under <40, though it's not impossible for players to improve either. Nico Collins, for example was under 40 as a rookie.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

So I finished writing down the team situations of all the players that ended up as studs that had "subpar" (less than 47ypg) rookie seasons.

13 players were on teams with above average passing yardage

14 players were on teams with below average passing yardage
- Worth noting that 12 of the 14 had less than 28ypg as rookies, meaning only 2 of the 14 had 29-46ypg.

The average passing yardage was around 210 yards per game from 1995-2010. There was a significant increase to around 220-230ypg after 2010. So I'm basing most of this on the 210ypg mark.

So it seems that a below-average passing attack does push the rookie ypg down. Which I guess is common sense, but from the data it only seems to be a critical factor for the lower half of the rookie ypg, it doesn't really account for the upper half (29-46 ypg group). Only 2 players from the upper half were on a below average passing attack.

Draft Capital also seems to play a factor. Only 1 player (out of 10), or 10%, in the "upper half" (28-46ypg) was a day 3 pick or later (Julian Edeleman). Whereas 6 players (out of 17), or 35%, were a day 3 pick or later in the 0-27 ypg grouping.

So to recap;
- Bad passing offense is one reason, but doesn't explain everything
- Bad draft capital is another reason, but also doesn't explain everything

These 2 things really only seem to explain why a future stud has a really poor rookie season (0-27 ypg). They don't really seem to explain the 28-46 ypg seasons.

The next thing to look at is target competition, which I'll continue at some point.

[Jrblaha]

These posts are gold, thank you.

[Anteaters]

These posts are gold, thank you.

x2

[Jigga94]

These posts are gold, thank you.

"WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!"

[Dynasty DeLorean]

- Courtland Sutton [44], Mike Williams [37], Golladay [35], and maybe Nico Collins [32] (we'll see on that) look like the only hits under 45, and they're all big players who don't necessarily rely on "getting open".
- Nearly every player 70 or above are good, waiting on Christian Watson though. Over 75 are all good.

*BTW I probably didn’t find all rookies, it was very tedious to go through, but I at least found all the notable ones plus extras


2022 Rookies
Chris Olave [OpenScore: 82]
Garrett Wilson [OpenScore: 77]

Christian Watson [OpenScore: 73]
Drake London [OpenScore: 69]
Rashid Shaheed [OpenScore: 68]
Treylon Burks [OpenScore: 65]
Khalil Shakir [OpenScore: 64]
Romeo Doubs [OpenScore: 57]
Skyy Moore [OpenScore: 54]
George Pickens [OpenScore: 48]
Jahan Dotson [OpenScore: 46]

David Bell [OpenScore: 39]
Alec Pierce [OpenScore: 38]


2021 Rookies
Kadarius Toney [OpenScore: 67]
Ja'Marr Chase [OpenScore: 61]
Amon-Ra St. Brown [OpenScore: 58]
DeVonta Smith [OpenScore: 51]
Jaylen Waddle [OpenScore: 50]
Josh Palmer [OpenScore: 50]

Rashod Bateman [OpenScore: 44]
Rondale Moore [OpenScore: 36]
Nico Collins [OpenScore: 32]


2020 Rookies
Justin Jefferson [OpenScore: 78]

Chase Claypool [OpenScore: 68]
Van Jefferson [OpenScore: 62]
Tee Higgins [OpenScore: 53]
Brandon Aiyuk [OpenScore: 53]
Collin Johnson [OpenScore: 52]
Jerry Jeudy [OpenScore: 50]
CeeDee Lamb [OpenScore: 47]
Darnell Mooney [OpenScore: 47]
Michael Pittman [OpenScore: 46]

Donovan Peoples-Jones [OpenScore: 45]
Laviska Shenault [OpenScore: 43]
Henry Ruggs [OpenScore: 42]
Jalen Reagor [OpenScore: 42]
Denzel Mims [OpenScore: 39]
Gabriel Davis [OpenScore: 32]


2019 Rookies
Diontae Johnson 91
A.J. Brown 80

Terry McLaurin 73
Marquise Brown 69
Preston Williams 69
Steven Sims 63
D.K. Metcalf 61
Hunter Renfrow 55
Deebo Samuel 52
Scott Miller 49
Mecole Hardman 48

Jakobi Meyers 45
Miles Boykin 43
Darius Slayton 42
Kelvin Harmon 39
Olabisi Johnson 38
KeeSean Johnson 35
JJ Arcega-Whiteside 34
N’Keal Harry 31

TE
Foster Moreau 44
Irv Smith 37
Noah Fant 32
Dawson Knox 29
T.J. Hockenson 25



2018 Rookies
Calvin Ridley 70
Antonio Callaway 63
Anthony Miller 59
Equanimeous St. Brown 58
Robert Foster 57
Keke Coutee 52
DJ Chark 51
DaeSean Hamilton 47
Christian Kirk 46
D.J. Moore 46

Marquez Valdes-Scantling 45
Courtland Sutton 44
Michael Gallup 42
Tre’Quan Smith 40
Marcell Ateman 36
James Washington 31



2017 Rookies
Mack Hollins 62
Chris Godwin 61
JuJu Smith-Schuster 59
Corey Davis 53
Curtis Samuel 50
Cooper Kupp 50
Kendrick Bourne 49
Dede Westbrook 46

Josh Reynolds 44
Taywan Taylor 41
Zay Jones 37
Mike Williams 37
Kenny Golladay 35
Trent Taylor 31

[Jigga94]

Reed on the fringe of 47 ypg

Should be in the money after this week. Especially if you consider the rushing yardage