Mike Davis - Starting in Atlanta?

[Pullo Vision]

In 22 games as a starter over his career, Davis has done the following:

275 carries for 1058 yds 8 TDs 12.5 apg 48.1 ruypg 0.36 ruTDpg 3.85 ypa
76 catches for 444 yds 3 TDs 3.5 rpg 20.2 reypg 0.13 reTDpg 5.77 ypr

I have no idea what would possess someone to total and average a player's CAREER numbers and project that for a single season.

Ummm, to see if a veteran player has met a minimum standard of competence for a starter in the NFL - which Davis has not.

I’m curious, if you’re not going to measure a player by a well established level of performance that he has created over a career when he goes into a new situation, by what standards do you think people ought to project him?

Averaging career numbers ignores a player's changes over time, both in skill and physical abilities (such as deterioration). With Josh Gordon applying for reinstatement, are you totaling and averaging his career numbers to see what he could do as a 30 year old FA? Seems you'd only do that if you were pumped about him, ie have a position on him regardless of his recent production. You seem to have concluded that Davis is a value-less jag and are relying on CAREER numbers to prop up a weak argument, rather than recent numbers, like you'd do with Gordon.

Davis has put in the work to maintain a role in the NFL, despite being non-elite at a position with a short average NFL career. I've read you want him and his work ethic in your locker room. You think he had those leg muscles coming out of college?

3.9 ypa like he had in CAR is not a measure of competent performance by a starting RB. The only time in his career he exceeded a 4.0 ypa was with SEA one year, and SEA was a top 5 rushing offense - meaning that one year was more probably an outlier based upon being in an optimal situation given his performance in all other cases. At no point in his career was he ever any better than the third most proficient RB on the roster he was on, even in his best year, and there were multiple years where he was the least proficient RB on the roster despite there being some very nondescript names on the roster.

Now he’s going to a team that is a borderline bottom third rushing offense. He’s pretty much proven over his career that he’s nothing more than a replacement level talent, which means that if any other RB on that roster, or any FA they would happen to sign, shows even a moderate level of competence that Davis is in serious danger of being replaced.

There are legit reasons to be cautious about Davis, but ignoring player, coaching staff and scheme changes ("bottom third rushing offense") seems to be doing your own self (and anyone giving merit to this line of thought) a disservice. How heavily will Arthur Smith rely on the run game, and Davis? What will the run-pass ratio be, with Coach there and Julio gone?

[remedy29]

Im not saying Mike Davis is a premier talent, but he is much better than a replacement level talent. If you think that he is a jag, continue to enjoy watching football through fantasy stats, I'll enjoy watching real football on Sundays. Mike Davis is in line for significant touches this year.

Yes he is line for significant touches and has a great opportunity to show he isn't a JAG, but he has been a JAG up to this point in his career. I mean he is on what his 5th NFL team in 6 years?

All I know, and care about, is one of the 32 NFL teams identified Mike Davis as their lead back, with a coaching staff that features the RBs.

Someone posted a nice sexy list of top 12 RBs heading into 2021, 10 if which were sexy top 2020 RBs too, but only 6 finished as an RB1...Mike Davis finished as an RB1 in 2020 and his situation is better in 2021.

Mike Davis is a proven NFL talent, not a Jag. And not some what the heck flex play. He has significantly more value than that.

[Anteaters]

one of the 32 NFL teams identified Mike Davis as their lead back, with a coaching staff that features the RBs.

Mike Davis finished as an RB1 in 2020 and his situation is better in 2021.

Mike Davis is a proven NFL talent, not a Jag. And not some what the heck flex play. He has significantly more value than that.

++

[ArrylT]

I think Mike Davis can be both actually. An NFL Talent and a JAG.

Basically in the right situation and role, Davis has shown he has the talent to provide fantasy production. There is no disputing what he did in 2020. But at the same time that does not mean that another "Just a guy" RB in the NFL put in the same situation with a skill set similar to Davis could not accomplish the same thing.

However, is there or will there be anyone on the Falcons that can or will? Right now there is obviously no one on the team with the experience that is for sure. As I mentioned earlier, different teams have different ideas & ways to use players, and as remedy29 so astutely put it "is one of the 32 NFL teams identified Mike Davis as their lead back, with a coaching staff that features the RBs.". Whether that changes in the time remaining this off-season we'll see. But time is now starting to run out on all but a few veterans to have both the talent & ability to acclimate in a short time frame, especially in a still pandemic type protocol season.

Furthermore players all develop & improve their skills at different rates, and bouncing from team to team is not conducive for that - that is similar to you moving from city to city & job to job - no one can expect you to be productive at 110% until you've established enough baseline familiarity with your role. So, for example, I do not think Davis' 2020 was hindered, but rather helped, by the fact that he spent the 2nd half of 2019 learning / inactive with the Panthers. Had he just been signed in 2020 pre-season things could have been a lot different.

Now he's in a position with a full off-season on a team that signed him for a specific role. Whether he'll succeed, and how valuable that role will be, has yet to be fully determined, but it certainly makes sense if you can do so low-cost to take a shot. If we project that all he will do in 2021 is identical to 2020 then his cost is likely (but league market dependant) to be cheaper than most of the guys expected to be RB1s?

Basically just saying that both can be true. A guy could be nothing more than an average talent, but in the right situation/role can still have key fantasy production. Atm Davis remains the most obvious bet - but just as obviously this will be a matter of cost for owners both in dynasty (acquisition) and re-draft (draft capital).

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

All I know, and care about, is one of the 32 NFL teams identified Mike Davis as their lead back, with a coaching staff that features the RBs.

Well we know this is true. Obviously if you feature Derrick Henry, you will feature any old RB that sits stop the depth chart.
/s
Not to be too snarky, I just think coaching trends are way way overstatedb in this hobby. Henry is the workhorse back to end all workhorse backs. I don't think we should infer much about Mike Davis' role from Henry's usage under Smith.

[Pullo Vision]

All I know, and care about, is one of the 32 NFL teams identified Mike Davis as their lead back, with a coaching staff that features the RBs.

Well we know this is true. Obviously if you feature Derrick Henry, you will feature any old RB that sits stop the depth chart.
/s
Not to be too snarky, I just think coaching trends are way way overstatedb in this hobby. Henry is the workhorse back to end all workhorse backs. I don't think we should infer much about Mike Davis' role from Henry's usage under Smith.

Agreed. Read a piece talking about Arthur Smith's history as OC. No effort to disentangle having Henry and Smith's history of-
1- giving the lead back bellcow touches
2- not targeting the RB much in the passing game
3- going with a run focused game plan

[Orenthal Shames]

Im not saying Mike Davis is a premier talent, but he is much better than a replacement level talent. If you think that he is a jag, continue to enjoy watching football through fantasy stats, I'll enjoy watching real football on Sundays. Mike Davis is in line for significant touches this year.

Yes he is line for significant touches and has a great opportunity to show he isn't a JAG, but he has been a JAG up to this point in his career. I mean he is on what his 5th NFL team in 6 years?

Mike Davis is a proven NFL talent, not a Jag. And not some what the heck flex play. He has significantly more value than that.

Trifecta of wrongness

[Space Cowboy]

Davis and Gaskin were true laugh out loud lead back picks whether it be dynasty or redraft. Gaskin went 55 or something in a startup I did over the summer. Meanwhile I got Ahmed at like 200 and they're the same player.

[mild]

I don't get the analysis with Mike Davis.

With the volume Mike Davis is looking at, a RB1 season is staring you in the face.

Ooof whoever bumped this thread up has a brutal sense of humour

Not calling you out rem, was just the first post it went to on "show new posts" for me, I signed out of the Mike Davis hoopla this offseason... but to this data point above:

Week 7 carries + targets on early downs
CPatt: 17
Mike Davis: 3

Week 7 snaps
CPatt: 73%
Davis: 60%

Pour one out, indeed.

https://twitter.com/HaydenWinks/status/ ... 3018315777

[remedy29]

Mike Davis being a RB1 is certainly a pipe dream now with the emergence of Cordarrelle Patterson 9th year breakout. I do not think anyone saw that coming.

However, Mike Davis still played 60% of the snaps week 7. Would still think he will be getting 12 carries a game while being used as a blocking back on passing downs with a handful of receptions moving forward. He could still be a low end RB2 and have value this season, if Atlanta's offense as a whole has improved. So for now, I will call week 7 an outlier.

[Pullo Vision]

Put another way-
Snaps, routes run, targets, carries (per PFF)
CPatt 46 28 4 14
Mike Davis 38 26 0 4

The disparity was in touch opportunities, not snaps. That said, I don't believe this was a one week outlier.

[Orenthal Shames]

Put another way-
Snaps, routes run, targets, carries (per PFF)
CPatt 46 28 4 14
Mike Davis 38 26 0 4

The disparity was in touch opportunities, not snaps. That said, I don't believe this was a one week outlier.

Agree. Meaningful fantasy reps are decreasing for Davis as the season progresses. Barring injury to Patterson, I don't see that swinging the other way.

[FantasyFreak]

Davis and Gaskin were true laugh out loud lead back picks whether it be dynasty or redraft. Gaskin went 55 or something in a startup I did over the summer. Meanwhile I got Ahmed at like 200 and they're the same player.

The podfather was saying Gaskin was like Austin Ekeler, hope nobody listened to him, his off season ranking of Gaskin was ridiculously high considering the current reality.

[Cameron Giles]

Davis actually got decent volume, which was the only thing going for him, but the box score numbers are bad. These types of middling vets propped up largely by situation always seem like sells in the offseason.

[Jigga94]

Davis and Gaskin were true laugh out loud lead back picks whether it be dynasty or redraft. Gaskin went 55 or something in a startup I did over the summer. Meanwhile I got Ahmed at like 200 and they're the same player.

The podfather was saying Gaskin was like Austin Ekeler, hope nobody listened to him, his off season ranking of Gaskin was ridiculously high considering the current reality.

I usually do the opposite of what that guy says. Playerprofiler is a great resource and I like some of the co hosts he has, but he's just over the top for no reason