Bryce Young

[FantasyFreak]

I posted this somewhere, I guess not here. On Reddit, some guy did an analysis on rookie Qb's, and those with a high sack percentage, and then secondarily, those with a low adjusted yards gained per pass attempt, are like 90%+ likely to be a bust. Young happens to meet both of those criteria. The 5 outliers to this were goff, roethlisberger, alex smith, donovan mcnabb, and jeff george.

Wnat constitutes a "bust" in this scenario, I'm curious. I'd consider Jeff George and Smith to a lesser extent, disappointments, considering their NFL draft capital.

[Cameron Giles]

I posted this somewhere, I guess not here. On Reddit, some guy did an analysis on rookie Qb's, and those with a high sack percentage, and then secondarily, those with a low adjusted yards gained per pass attempt, are like 90%+ likely to be a bust. Young happens to meet both of those criteria. The 5 outliers to this were goff, roethlisberger, alex smith, donovan mcnabb, and jeff george.

So two players who were drafted 1st overall, two players drafted 2nd overall, and one player drafted just outside the Top 10. Would seem like Young has the potential to be an outlier.

Goff is the most notable of those, since he's the only one who had a new HC for his second season.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I posted this somewhere, I guess not here. On Reddit, some guy did an analysis on rookie Qb's, and those with a high sack percentage, and then secondarily, those with a low adjusted yards gained per pass attempt, are like 90%+ likely to be a bust. Young happens to meet both of those criteria. The 5 outliers to this were goff, roethlisberger, alex smith, donovan mcnabb, and jeff george.

Wnat constitutes a "bust" in this scenario, I'm curious. I'd consider Jeff George and Smith to a lesser extent, disappointments, considering their NFL draft capital.

Something along the lines of a qb to get a multi-year deal after their rookie contract was deemed a hit.

[MacDaddy123]

I posted this somewhere, I guess not here. On Reddit, some guy did an analysis on rookie Qb's, and those with a high sack percentage, and then secondarily, those with a low adjusted yards gained per pass attempt, are like 90%+ likely to be a bust. Young happens to meet both of those criteria. The 5 outliers to this were goff, roethlisberger, alex smith, donovan mcnabb, and jeff george.

Wnat constitutes a "bust" in this scenario, I'm curious. I'd consider Jeff George and Smith to a lesser extent, disappointments, considering their NFL draft capital.

I have seen QB bust metrics before, from The Athletic, they include:

1) Starts: Were they good enough to start at least 50 NFL games in their career?
2) Wins: Did they have a winning record with the team that drafted them?
3) Valuable: Did they sign a 2nd contract with the team that drafted them?
4) Longevity: Were they still starting after turning 29 years old?
5) Playoffs: Did they win a playoff game?

Star QB's have hit all 5 categories, Starters have hit at least 3 categories, Major Reach, hit at least 1 category, Major Bust hit none of the categories.

Examples of each category: Percentages of QB's drafted in top 10 picks since 2011 in category
Star: Patrick Mahomes, Cam Newton 26%
Starter: Baker Mayfield, Carson Wentz, Ryan Tannehill 33%
Major Reach: A serviceable backup who should have been drafted 3 rounds later: Marcus Mariota 19%
Major Bust: Good for nothing: Josh Rosen 22%

[remedy29]

I'm no Bryce Young fan, as I do not trust short QBs, specially when they are not extremely athletic.

However, shouldn't Bryce Young deserve a pass for having a complete abysmal coaching staff in 2023? Not sure why we were all fooled that Frank Reich was a good coach, because he assuredly was not.

Dave Canales is going to try to put Bryce Young in s position to succeed, so he may look a lot better this year.

[mild]

I'm no Bryce Young fan, as I do not trust short QBs, specially when they are not extremely athletic.

However, shouldn't Bryce Young deserve a pass for having a complete abysmal coaching staff in 2023? Not sure why we were all fooled that Frank Reich was a good coach, because he assuredly was not.

Dave Canales is going to try to put Bryce Young in s position to succeed, so he may look a lot better this year.

If you can scrub the 2023 film from your mind enough to completely give him a pass, then all credit to you.

I think most of us are still haunted by it. The fact that the flashes were so few, and that some of the limitations were directly a result of him being small (struggling to see the middle of the field, having to come off the field for QB sneaks, just generally not resembling the guy we saw in college) means most of us are waiting to see him beat the "bad coaching" allegations.

It wouldn't be the first time that an undersized college superstar QB struggled once he got to the pros.

[Cameron Giles]

I'm no Bryce Young fan, as I do not trust short QBs, specially when they are not extremely athletic.

However, shouldn't Bryce Young deserve a pass for having a complete abysmal coaching staff in 2023? Not sure why we were all fooled that Frank Reich was a good coach, because he assuredly was not.

Dave Canales is going to try to put Bryce Young in s position to succeed, so he may look a lot better this year.

If you can scrub the 2023 film from your mind enough to completely give him a pass, then all credit to you.

I think most of us are still haunted by it. The fact that the flashes were so few, and that some of the limitations were directly a result of him being small (struggling to see the middle of the field, having to come off the field for QB sneaks, just generally not resembling the guy we saw in college) means most of us are waiting to see him beat the "bad coaching" allegations.

It wouldn't be the first time that an undersized college superstar QB struggled once he got to the pros.

There are absolutely limitations that come with being a smaller QB. But, the limitations that come with developing as a rookie in last year's Panthers team are much more damaging and transparent. I don't think people are really putting into perspective how astronomically awful that situation was. It was not a matter of "figure it out". It was Urban Meyer/Jacksonville bad, if not worse. And we all saw how bad Lawrence was in that situation.

I don't know if Canales is the guy to remedy that like Doug Pederson did, but his work with Russell Wilson, Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield certainly shouldn't be ignored.

[Kurt G.O.A.T.]

I posted this somewhere, I guess not here. On Reddit, some guy did an analysis on rookie Qb's, and those with a high sack percentage, and then secondarily, those with a low adjusted yards gained per pass attempt, are like 90%+ likely to be a bust. Young happens to meet both of those criteria. The 5 outliers to this were goff, roethlisberger, alex smith, donovan mcnabb, and jeff george.

So two players who were drafted 1st overall, two players drafted 2nd overall, and one player drafted just outside the Top 10. Would seem like Young has the potential to be an outlier.

Goff is the most notable of those, since he's the only one who had a new HC for his second season.

Fate played a hand for Goff. Imagine if the Rams stuck with fisher and his oc boreus. He would have busted so hard, through no fault of his own. That may have been the all time worst hc and oc combo for a young qb in the history of the nfl.

So Young may be in the same boat. We'll find out in a few months.

[MacDaddy123]

I'm no Bryce Young fan, as I do not trust short QBs, specially when they are not extremely athletic.

However, shouldn't Bryce Young deserve a pass for having a complete abysmal coaching staff in 2023? Not sure why we were all fooled that Frank Reich was a good coach, because he assuredly was not.

Dave Canales is going to try to put Bryce Young in s position to succeed, so he may look a lot better this year.

I think it is more than just the coaching change. Sure, Canales should help.
The Panthers also had a bottom 3 offensive line in 2023, and the worst receiver room in the NFL.
Some improvements in both of those areas have been made, but overall are probably still below average.
Not horrendous anymore though.

I don't ever think that Bryce will be a top QB in the NFL, but I could see him as a high end QB2 given the proper weapons surrounding him.

[FantasyFreak]

I'm no Bryce Young fan, as I do not trust short QBs, specially when they are not extremely athletic.

However, shouldn't Bryce Young deserve a pass for having a complete abysmal coaching staff in 2023? Not sure why we were all fooled that Frank Reich was a good coach, because he assuredly was not.

Dave Canales is going to try to put Bryce Young in s position to succeed, so he may look a lot better this year.

I think it is more than just the coaching change. Sure, Canales should help.
The Panthers also had a bottom 3 offensive line in 2023, and the worst receiver room in the NFL.
Some improvements in both of those areas have been made, but overall are probably still below average.
Not horrendous anymore though.

I don't ever think that Bryce will be a top QB in the NFL, but I could see him as a high end QB2 given the proper weapons surrounding him.

I don't see anything special about his game at all. He was a reach at 1. He'll also be forever tied to Caleb, which could add more pressure to him. The situation isn't great, and I just don't think he's talented enough to overcome it, personally.

For FF, there's so little upside. I'd move him for any of the top 6 QB's in this draft, but I doubt you'd be able to do that.

We'll see how Canales does, but the ownership is a massive concern for anyone in that franchise. It's arguable the worst run organization in pro sports right now.

[TheTroll]

I'm no Bryce Young fan, as I do not trust short QBs, specially when they are not extremely athletic.

However, shouldn't Bryce Young deserve a pass for having a complete abysmal coaching staff in 2023? Not sure why we were all fooled that Frank Reich was a good coach, because he assuredly was not.

Dave Canales is going to try to put Bryce Young in s position to succeed, so he may look a lot better this year.

I think it is more than just the coaching change. Sure, Canales should help.
The Panthers also had a bottom 3 offensive line in 2023, and the worst receiver room in the NFL.
Some improvements in both of those areas have been made, but overall are probably still below average.
Not horrendous anymore though.

I don't ever think that Bryce will be a top QB in the NFL, but I could see him as a high end QB2 given the proper weapons surrounding him.

I don't see anything special about his game at all. He was a reach at 1. He'll also be forever tied to Caleb, which could add more pressure to him. The situation isn't great, and I just don't think he's talented enough to overcome it, personally.

For FF, there's so little upside. I'd move him for any of the top 6 QB's in this draft, but I doubt you'd be able to do that.

We'll see how Canales does, but the ownership is a massive concern for anyone in that franchise. It's arguable the worst run organization in pro sports right now.

for me with Bryce, he was on a juggernaut of a team with 'bama, that has to help his success. If he was on let's say, Middle Tenn St, how would his college career have looked. But alas, the Panthers great minds did their due diligence and said this is our guy.

[Cameron Giles]

I think it is more than just the coaching change. Sure, Canales should help.
The Panthers also had a bottom 3 offensive line in 2023, and the worst receiver room in the NFL.
Some improvements in both of those areas have been made, but overall are probably still below average.
Not horrendous anymore though.

I don't ever think that Bryce will be a top QB in the NFL, but I could see him as a high end QB2 given the proper weapons surrounding him.

I don't see anything special about his game at all. He was a reach at 1. He'll also be forever tied to Caleb, which could add more pressure to him. The situation isn't great, and I just don't think he's talented enough to overcome it, personally.

For FF, there's so little upside. I'd move him for any of the top 6 QB's in this draft, but I doubt you'd be able to do that.

We'll see how Canales does, but the ownership is a massive concern for anyone in that franchise. It's arguable the worst run organization in pro sports right now.

for me with Bryce, he was on a juggernaut of a team with 'bama, that has to help his success. If he was on let's say, Middle Tenn St, how would his college career have looked. But alas, the Panthers great minds did their due diligence and said this is our guy.

That doesn't make any sense. Young was the #1 HS QB recruit in his class. It's not like he was some mid-level talent who ended up in a great situation. Hell, his last year at Bama, the best skill position talent he had was a RB. Young did exactly what people expected him to do in college and it would've happened at any competent P5 school.

Young/Stroud was a legitimate debate and factually, there were multiple teams looking to move up to draft Young at 1, including the Texans. The Panthers didn't reach. If he didn't go 1, he was going 2. Their mistake was the assets they gave up and the organizational plan they had to develop him.

[Ice]

The major knock on Young at the time was his Height. He was easily going top 2. The Panthers look to have chosen wrong and the Texans are elated but the selection, especially at the time was not a reach.

No need to rewrite history after a season. He was on a terrible team with worse coaching. There are concerns at this point so we will see if he can recover after that debacle of the season but his height would rank near the bottom of issues he dealt with last season.

[FantasyFreak]

I don't see anything special about his game at all. He was a reach at 1. He'll also be forever tied to Caleb, which could add more pressure to him. The situation isn't great, and I just don't think he's talented enough to overcome it, personally.

For FF, there's so little upside. I'd move him for any of the top 6 QB's in this draft, but I doubt you'd be able to do that.

We'll see how Canales does, but the ownership is a massive concern for anyone in that franchise. It's arguable the worst run organization in pro sports right now.

for me with Bryce, he was on a juggernaut of a team with 'bama, that has to help his success. If he was on let's say, Middle Tenn St, how would his college career have looked. But alas, the Panthers great minds did their due diligence and said this is our guy.

That doesn't make any sense. Young was the #1 HS QB recruit in his class. It's not like he was some mid-level talent who ended up in a great situation. Hell, his last year at Bama, the best skill position talent he had was a RB. Young did exactly what people expected him to do in college and it would've happened at any competent P5 school.

Young/Stroud was a legitimate debate and factually, there were multiple teams looking to move up to draft Young at 1, including the Texans. The Panthers didn't reach. If he didn't go 1, he was going 2. Their mistake was the assets they gave up and the organizational plan they had to develop him.

Whoever took him at 1, it would have been a reach, in my books. It happened to be Carolina. There was nothing about his game worthy of the top pick. He was an undersized QB with an average arm. There's nothing about him that gives him elite QB upside. Never was. Teams constantly reach at QB. He wasn't worth the top pick in a draft. Stroud was debatable, but had the tools worthy of taking the shot. Young simply didn't have the tools fas an NFL player for the 1.01, IMO.

[Anteaters]

for me with Bryce, he was on a juggernaut of a team with 'bama, that has to help his success. If he was on let's say, Middle Tenn St, how would his college career have looked. But alas, the Panthers great minds did their due diligence and said this is our guy.

That doesn't make any sense. Young was the #1 HS QB recruit in his class. It's not like he was some mid-level talent who ended up in a great situation. Hell, his last year at Bama, the best skill position talent he had was a RB. Young did exactly what people expected him to do in college and it would've happened at any competent P5 school.

Young/Stroud was a legitimate debate and factually, there were multiple teams looking to move up to draft Young at 1, including the Texans. The Panthers didn't reach. If he didn't go 1, he was going 2. Their mistake was the assets they gave up and the organizational plan they had to develop him.

Whoever took him at 1, it would have been a reach, in my books. It happened to be Carolina. There was nothing about his game worthy of the top pick. He was an undersized QB with an average arm. There's nothing about him that gives him elite QB upside. Never was. Teams constantly reach at QB. He wasn't worth the top pick in a draft. Stroud was debatable, but had the tools worthy of taking the shot. Young simply didn't have the tools fas an NFL player for the 1.01, IMO.

I don't necessarily disagree ... but which 2023 qb-needy draft team do you think was a team that would have chosen a different QB at 1.01 over Young?

It seems like the hype around Bryce had grown to a level where it was all but certain that he would be the 1.01 pick. Sort of like with CW in 2024, or TLaw in 2021.

In hindsight, I can easily say Stroud (or even Richardson) should have been drafted before Young. But which qb-needy NFL team in 2023 felt the same? Leading up to the 2023 draft, did such a beast exist?