SF Start-up Help Welcomed

[lukkynumber13]

He's getting double zeros at RB1 and RB2 most weeks unless Roschon takes over. Imagine that hurts his chances considerably.

Dream is Kittle and Evans are only on the roster a month before they're flipped for prospects + picks.

Exactly

[abloom]

He's getting double zeros at RB1 and RB2 most weeks unless Roschon takes over. Imagine that hurts his chances considerably.

Dream is Kittle and Evans are only on the roster a month before they're flipped for prospects + picks.

And he can keep dreaming. The value for those players have been established and it isn't significant

[tstafford]

Thanks all - I get the point about the risk of being "middling", but I'm not fearful of that at all. The other teams are either clearly win-now or they tried to strike a balance and will be middling. Of course anything is possible, but I'd project this team to have a top-3 pick w/ relative ease!

The team strategy has been consistent - acquire young studs (Lamb, Metcalf), undervalued assets (Kyler, Tua, Stroud, Burks), tradable assets (Kittle, Evans, extra QBs) and future firsts (2 extra). It's the productive struggle (R.MacDowell) approach. With any luck the team will look a bit different six weeks in to the season. I think this group will be active in the trade market.

FWIW - I received an offer already on Levis. It was terrible and I rejected w/o comment. But this guy has sent many such offers this week!

[abloom]

Thanks all - I get the point about the risk of being "middling", but I'm not fearful of that at all. The other teams are either clearly win-now or they tried to strike a balance and will be middling. Of course anything is possible, but I'd project this team to have a top-3 pick w/ relative ease!

The team strategy has been consistent - acquire young studs (Lamb, Metcalf), undervalued assets (Kyler, Tua, Stroud, Burks), tradable assets (Kittle, Evans, extra QBs) and future firsts (2 extra). It's the productive struggle (R.MacDowell) approach. With any luck the team will look a bit different six weeks in to the season. I think this group will be active in the trade market.

FWIW - I received an offer already on Levis. It was terrible and I rejected w/o comment. But this guy has sent many such offers this week!

Productive struggle would have meant no Evans and kittle imo. Also while you may have gotten some consensus undervalued assets, they are not necessarily undervalued in your league (as in the entire league may be lower on the asset which means you won't get consensus value for the player)

[tstafford]

Thanks all - I get the point about the risk of being "middling", but I'm not fearful of that at all. The other teams are either clearly win-now or they tried to strike a balance and will be middling. Of course anything is possible, but I'd project this team to have a top-3 pick w/ relative ease!

The team strategy has been consistent - acquire young studs (Lamb, Metcalf), undervalued assets (Kyler, Tua, Stroud, Burks), tradable assets (Kittle, Evans, extra QBs) and future firsts (2 extra). It's the productive struggle (R.MacDowell) approach. With any luck the team will look a bit different six weeks in to the season. I think this group will be active in the trade market.

FWIW - I received an offer already on Levis. It was terrible and I rejected w/o comment. But this guy has sent many such offers this week!

Productive struggle would have meant no Evans and kittle imo. Also while you may have gotten some consensus undervalued assets, they are not necessarily undervalued in your league (as in the entire league may be lower on the asset which means you won't get consensus value for the player)

Yeah. You've made that point. And I see where you are coming from. We differ on one part for sure - I am not concerned that the inclusion of Evans/Kittle will make this team any type of contender or even close. And what I believe is that they had fallen too far and may (MAY) have in-sesaon value that will exceed where I got them by a round or two. Clearly you believe that to be wrong. That's fine - I've enjoyed your contrarian POV throughout this process and it has made me think. So thank you. Please don't think I made those selections w/o consideration and intention.

[tstafford]

Update
QB: Kyler, Tua, Stroud, Carr, Levis
RB: Roschon
WR: Lamb, Metcalf, Burks, Evans, Mimms
TE: Kittle

Recent selection was Mimms. I liked him in the pre-draft process and he has an opportunity now w/ Patrick unfortunately injured again. I intend to just keep going BPA from here on out with an eye toward youth. Next pick is in eight selections.

QB: Baker, Hooker, Zappe
WR: Sutton, Rondale, Reed, Tillman, Juju, Lazard, Boyd, Cooks
RB: Spears, Penny, Perine, D.Harris
TE: Chig, Kmet, McBride, Schultz, Mayer

I don’t expect Sutton to keep falling but I’ll take him if he does. I don’t like him but he’s fallen too far. Maybe should have taken him over Mimms but I went with higher upside. I don't think people will ever be back in on Sutton and I frankly think he might just not be all that good.

I think going TE makes sense. Will smooth the process of selling Kittle. I like all of them (McBride the least). Spears works for me too. And there's a little bit of me that wants to take Penny (could spike in value) - but Abloom would come find me and kill me.

[Anteaters]

Hooker (who'd'a thunk I put a QB at the top of this round again?)
.
.
.
whoever else you choose.

If the choice isn't Hooker, I'm not too picky here. I think Goff is solid, but I also think the time will come when DET wants to see what they have in Herndon. If Goff isn't leading them to the SB this year or next (and I'm not saying I expect Goff to do that), it's not unrealistic to think they reset with a guy on his rookie contract over giving Goff another huger money deal. It's the perfect timeline for Hooker. Sit in 2023 and recover and learn. Then either be all-in as 2nd QB in 2024, or maybe even start if DET sees enough growth in him. Goff has a $5M cap hit if traded next offseason. By then the Jets will be desperate to replace a fading Rodgers, or TB will be ready to move on from Baker-Trask, or Denver will replace Russ, or someone else will want a good veteran starter. This is a very cheap price to pay to get a future NFL starting QB who was considered a 1st-round talent before his injury.

Again, yeah, players like Sutton/Penny/Juju/Rondale will score points in 2023 and might even climb a little in production. But none of those guys are likely to be WR1s or RB1s. Hooker has a decent chance at being a starting NFL QB in a year or so.

When it's not TEP/2TE, I'm okay with letting TEs wait and wait if I don't get one of the big 3 and miss 4-6. One of those guys listed will be there next round. And for a team built like yours, there isn't much reason to be very much higher on one than the other except personal preference. I'd build up another position and reconsider TEs next round.

EDIT: on Mims. Like the choice of talent+youth+opportunity

[abloom]

I like the mimms pick

I'd have baker, spears.as my next 2. Then some of the tes and maybe tillman

[Mtt33]

I Like the Mims pick.
I think the one thing I would add is I would completely fade rb at this point unless you feel someone is a glaring steal. If it’s close just fade it and try and guarantee that 1.01. The difference between 1.01 and say 1.04 is a much bigger difference than any players at this point in the draft. 1.01 will be a 1st round startup pick, don’t underestimate that!

[tstafford]

I Like the Mims pick.
I think the one thing I would add is I would completely fade rb at this point unless you feel someone is a glaring steal. If it’s close just fade it and try and guarantee that 1.01. The difference between 1.01 and say 1.04 is a much bigger difference than any players at this point in the draft. 1.01 will be a 1st round startup pick, don’t underestimate that!

Totally understood. And I think taking guy like Spears could make sense in that he is unlikely to drive much 2023 production unless Henry gets hurt. And in that case, I sell him to the Henry owner who is all-in win now. I'm kind of surprised the Henry owner hasn't taken him.

[Anteaters]

As a reminder, you're sitting on three 2024 1sts. Assuming a stretch spread on those picks (not too positive, not too negative) let's say you end up with 1.03, 1.07 and 1.11.

If that was the 2023 draft, you'd be walking out of the 2024 first round with something like Gibbs, Quentin and Charbonnet/Kendra. Or Young, Addison and Charbs/Kendra. That going to be a great haul next year to fill out your starters. And this is assuming you don't pick up another 1st or two by the 2024 draft.

I like the shape you're in now. Stay focused and keep pushing.

[tstafford]

As a reminder, you're sitting on three 2024 1sts. Assuming a stretch spread on those picks (not too positive, not too negative) let's say you end up with 1.03, 1.07 and 1.11.

If that was the 2023 draft, you'd be walking out of the 2024 first round with something like Gibbs, Quentin and Charbonnet/Kendra. Or Young, Addison and Charbs/Kendra. That going to be a great haul next year to fill out your starters. And this is assuming you don't pick up another 1st or two by the 2024 draft.

I like the shape you're in now. Stay focused and keep pushing.

Appreciate that.

Just grabbed Josh Downs in the 14th round. I think he may be getting overlooked. More pedigree than folks seem to remember

[tstafford]

Barring trades, rosters are more or less formed relative to the future picks. Thought people might want to see the rosters of the two picks I acquired. My guess (and it's harder to predict than we act like) is that Team One is a top contender and Team Two struggles a bit. Team One was the beneficiary of some questionable trades. Team Two traded up three times and didn't flesh out all that well. Too weak at WR to seriously compete and no back-up QB.

Start: QB/2RB/2WR/TE/3Flex/1SF

Team One:
Lamar/Goff/Lance
Jacobs/Sanders/Charb/Achane/Gibson/Spears
Waddle/Jeudy/McLaurin/Aiyuk/JuJu/Pickens
Pitts

Team Two:
Hurts/Purdy
Chubb/Ekeler/Pacheco/D.Harris/Gray
Deebo/Diontae/Toney
Engram/Laporta

[abloom]

Team one definitely better.tgan team two. Team 2 has middle of the pack to just out of playoffs written all over them.

I think team one will really hinge on Pitts and the rookie rbs. Definitely think playoff team, not sure if top championship contenter yet though.

[tstafford]

Team one definitely better.tgan team two. Team 2 has middle of the pack to just out of playoffs written all over them.

I think team one will really hinge on Pitts and the rookie rbs. Definitely think playoff team, not sure if top championship contenter yet though.

I hope you're right on both.

BTW - I have now received two offers both easy rejects for Stroud. Not sure I have any interest in dealing him but there will be opportunities to convert my QB riches in to prospects or picks.