Breece Hall thread (1.01)

[jomaed]

Any news on if this will be a full 12 month recovery? Not having him for a large portion of 2023 stings a bit...

[murphysxm]

Any news on if this will be a full 12 month recovery? Not having him for a large portion of 2023 stings a bit...

Long way before we have a clue, all we have is a crystal ball at this point

[FantasyFreak]

No. You can likely draft a RB prospect just as good as him without a knee injury that could diminish his 2023 (if not entire career), or trade that pick during the draft at the peak of Rookie Fever. Just hold it.

If it's 1 QB, you won't get a prospect as good as Breece if it's 1.05, SF you might. I do agree that the pick value hasn't peaked yet, though. The fever is undefeated.

I wouldn't rule it out. Breece wasn't some super great prospect everyone was in love with last year, he was just the best of fairly shallow group. I don't think guys like Zach Evans or Tank Williams are much different than Breece as a prospect, they're just in a stronger class.

Plus you're only taking the low end outcome into account, he projected it finished 1.03-1.05 and you jumped straight to 5, but what if it is indeed 1.03? That would guarantee you Gibbs or Tucker (Bijan going 2 if he somehow doesn't go 1), and I would much rather have Gibbs or Tucker right now than I did Breece this time last year (and I liked Breece).

Either way the pick is the appreciating asset at this time and Hall is the deprecating asset, until he returns and looks good his value is going to trickle downwards and then rocket up or down depending upon his performance.

He also said he was thinking it would be 1.05. If it's 1.03, that might be different, but If Bijan and Gibbs are gone, I'd rather have Breece. I like Tucker a lot, too. IDK, it really depends what you mean by a prospect that's "just as good", because with Breece's athletic testing and early round 2 capital, being an early declare, with top end college production, it's tough to say that's the case. What parameters are you using when you say "just as good" a prospect?

I'm assuming you meant Tank Bigbsy, but what exactly makes him the level of prospect Breece is. He's older, hasn't produced nearly as well, doesn't have the receiving profile, and likely won't match the athlete measurables either. Evans doesn't really have the receiving profile either, or the production. Are we just talking arbitrary film watching?

[Mjvb5]

Any news on if this will be a full 12 month recovery? Not having him for a large portion of 2023 stings a bit...

Long way before we have a clue, all we have is a crystal ball at this point

X2 If it is the initial report of clean acl and minor meniscus should be 9-10 month till return to play and 12-15 for return to form like Barkley without the ankle . If there's additional damage to lcl, MCL, pcl etc close to full year and a bit to play ala dobbins

[halfbaked88]

Gus Edwards had a pretty clean injury. Still took him over a year just to get on the field. And he's got a nice (Q) by his name after one 33% snap share game.

We are witnessing the fragility of the RB position. Start-ups next year are gonna massively QB+WR heavy because of it.

[Shcritters]

Gus Edwards had a pretty clean injury. Still took him over a year just to get on the field. And he's got a nice (Q) by his name after one 33% snap share game.

We are witnessing the fragility of the RB position. Start-ups next year are gonna massively QB+WR heavy because of it.

I hear what you are saying… but will push back. Next year has been labeled the year of the Young RB’s that will re-set the dynasty RB ranks. This has led people to hold their 1sts with vise-grip strength. I get that this injury sucks for an up and coming RB, but doubt it changes many people’s rankings next year with so many good RBs projected to be available.

[MacDaddy123]

Gus Edwards had a pretty clean injury. Still took him over a year just to get on the field. And he's got a nice (Q) by his name after one 33% snap share game.

We are witnessing the fragility of the RB position. Start-ups next year are gonna massively QB+WR heavy because of it.

Agree 100%.
In fact I will take it one step further and say that in one 12 team SF league I will have pick 1.01 in 2023, and have been targeting Bijan Robinson.
I now have to seriously question that path.

I mean just looking at all of the young RB's going down in the past 2 years is insane. Cam Akers, Travis Etienne, JK Dobbins, Javonte Williams, and now Breece Hall.

I am leaning towards trading away Bijan Robinson, either before the draft or after the draft.
RB's are just too vulnerable to injury to invest such high draft capital, IMO.
Could probably get a pretty good haul for Bijan with all of the hype.

[Jigga94]

Gus Edwards had a pretty clean injury. Still took him over a year just to get on the field. And he's got a nice (Q) by his name after one 33% snap share game.

We are witnessing the fragility of the RB position. Start-ups next year are gonna massively QB+WR heavy because of it.

Gus is not comparable to Breece at all. I can understand selling high on Breece if you can though. Sucks to hold these players through injury.

[Anteaters]

I mean just looking at all of the young RB's going down in the past 2 years is insane. Cam Akers, Travis Etienne, JK Dobbins, Javonte Williams, and now Breece Hall.

I am leaning towards trading away Bijan Robinson, either before the draft or after the draft.
RB's are just too vulnerable to injury to invest such high draft capital, IMO.
Could probably get a pretty good haul for Bijan with all of the hype.

In some leagues, it's probably possible to make trades like Jacobs+1st or Stevenson+1st or Piece+1st+ or Etienne+1st and the like. The top one or two rookie RBs always carry extreme valuations. I wonder if the "bird in the hand" approach might be a smart way to play this instead of chasing the rookie Hope in the bush.

Reap the rewards from a proven veteran like Jacobs for 2-3 more seasons and add a good rookie WR with the 1.08? Or collect 4 more startable seasons from Stevenson or Etienne and add the third best RB at 1.10? And who knows, you might be able to get a 2nd and/or undervalued productive veterans like Boyd/Gus/Renfrow tossed in as sweeteners.

Put the bait out there and see who bites.

[Anteaters]

Sucks to hold these players through injury.

That's what gets me. I don't mind holding Javonte for 16 months if I must because there are no good offers. But if someone offered me Stevenson or Kirk, I'm jumping on that and getting an immediately useful piece.

Or even a veteran like Mixon or Lockett/Amari. I know it's dynasty, but waiting 16-18 months for a player to heal then ramp up to something close to what we once hoped he could be, and not being sure it will even happen, carries a lot of risk. Cashing out now for an immediate two years of good production form one of these three seems like a possibly good move for someone who isn't rebuilding.

[FantasyFreak]

Sucks to hold these players through injury.

That's what gets me. I don't mind holding Javonte for 16 months if I must because there are no good offers. But if someone offered me Stevenson or Kirk, I'm jumping on that and getting an immediately useful piece.

Or even a veteran like Mixon or Lockett/Amari. I know it's dynasty, but waiting 16-18 months for a player to heal then ramp up to something close to what we once hoped he could be, and not being sure it will even happen, carries a lot of risk. Cashing out now for an immediate two years of good production form one of these three seems like a possibly good move for someone who isn't rebuilding.

We also have to recalibrate what a "good offer" is. Especially with Javonte, who's on a team that doesn't seem to have an offensive identity, and will add RB competition to that roster. He wasn't even the true lead back on that team, at any point. Things change quickly. Just ask the people who had multiple opportunities to cash out on Akers for really good hauls, and held to the point where he's bordering on worthless.

[Mjvb5]

Sucks to hold these players through injury.

That's what gets me. I don't mind holding Javonte for 16 months if I must because there are no good offers. But if someone offered me Stevenson or Kirk, I'm jumping on that and getting an immediately useful piece.

Or even a veteran like Mixon or Lockett/Amari. I know it's dynasty, but waiting 16-18 months for a player to heal then ramp up to something close to what we once hoped he could be, and not being sure it will even happen, carries a lot of risk. Cashing out now for an immediate two years of good production form one of these three seems like a possibly good move for someone who isn't rebuilding.

We also have to recalibrate what a "good offer" is. Especially with Javonte, who's on a team that doesn't seem to have an offensive identity, and will add RB competition to that roster. He wasn't even the true lead back on that team, at any point. Things change quickly. Just ask the people who had multiple opportunities to cash out on Akers for really good hauls, and held to the point where he's bordering on worthless.

X2 the bigger hit on javonte was the fact that all these factors that made people view him as the rb2-5 just simply never came to fruition unlike breece. Hall fully healthy is clearly an elite rb1.... Javonte looks like he'd be that rb2 Monty/Sanders/jacobs

[Anteaters]

Sucks to hold these players through injury.

That's what gets me. I don't mind holding Javonte for 16 months if I must because there are no good offers. But if someone offered me Stevenson or Kirk, I'm jumping on that and getting an immediately useful piece.

Or even a veteran like Mixon or Lockett/Amari. I know it's dynasty, but waiting 16-18 months for a player to heal then ramp up to something close to what we once hoped he could be, and not being sure it will even happen, carries a lot of risk. Cashing out now for an immediate two years of good production form one of these three seems like a possibly good move for someone who isn't rebuilding.

We also have to recalibrate what a "good offer" is. Especially with Javonte, who's on a team that doesn't seem to have an offensive identity, and will add RB competition to that roster. He wasn't even the true lead back on that team, at any point. Things change quickly. Just ask the people who had multiple opportunities to cash out on Akers for really good hauls, and held to the point where he's bordering on worthless.

True.

Though with Akers it was a little different because (bleep) has a 100% success rate in taking 60%-100% of the fantasy value from all RBs. It should have been obvious to everyone that Akers' fantasy usefulness was ending. When Akers was generating random 1st offers any time after his injury, his owners should have smash accepted those offers. If any waited until the '22 season started, they should have been smash accepting random 2nds.

With Javonte (and Dobbins and others) we can cling to the notion that 1yr 90% recovery comebacks from ACLs are almost guaranteed. I still worry that not all RBs recover that quickly or that fully, but that's a common assumption. I'm not even comfortable assuming 18months 85% recovery in most cases, but I Hope.

So with Javonte, what is "good offer"? I could say "I don't know, but I'll know when I see it" but that doesn't really work. For now, I'd say a random 1st would get me quick. A 2nd and I'm holding for now. If it's a player, it better be a not-ancient starter quality player or a young guy with good potential.

[Anteaters]

Javonte looks like he'd be that rb2 Monty/Sanders/jacobs

That's a wide range of players ...

I'd be ecstatic for Javonte to return and give me the 2020-2022 seasons of Jacobs.
I'd be very happy if Javonte returned and gave me those seasons of Monty.
I'd wish I had traded javonte if he gives me three seasons of the inconsistent unstartable Sanders.

[Jigga94]

Javonte looks like he'd be that rb2 Monty/Sanders/jacobs

That's a wide range of players ...

I'd be ecstatic for Javonte to return and give me the 2020-2022 seasons of Jacobs.
I'd be very happy if Javonte returned and gave me those seasons of Monty.
I'd wish I had traded javonte if he gives me three seasons of the inconsistent unstartable Sanders.

Agree here. I'd trade Javonte away in a heartbeat for Jacobs. Team dependent on Monty. Even on a competitive team I'd probably hold Javonte unless I realllyyyy needed Sanders. Which if I did, I'd question if I was actually competitive.

Switch back to Breece, who I'm much higher on than Javonte. I might trade him for Jacobs, but if I was rebuilding I'd easily hold. He's shown much more than Javonte