Lamar Jackson is the best QB in the NFL & Fantasy

[ericanadian]

He was offered a better contract than any of those guys signed and he turned it down. Sheesh - how many beatings can that dead horse take?

So do you reject the idea of inflation on quarterback guarantees or do you reject the idea that because Jackson doesn’t have a year remaining on his current contract, he should expect additional guarantees compared to guys signing extensions coming off year three of their rookie deal? I laid out why simply being more (and its lower in terms of practical guarantees when comparing to Kyler and Watson, though I know all you guys pretend that contract has no ramifications) isn’t enough to align with what has been pretty standard across the NFL.

Do you have any evidence that inflation was a factor in successive contract signings previous to the offer to Jackson?

As I posted earlier, if you adjust the practical guarantees for inflation on the contracts to Mahomes, Allen, Wilson and Murray, they all land right around the $170M-$180M range in current dollars with Murray being well over that number at around $200M. The Ravens were rumoured to have offered $175M in practical guarantees, which lines up. Obviously Watson was way over that number as well, but I’ve generally ignored him for this purpose. Could go back additional years, but you’re never getting out of small sample size given that there just aren’t that many of these contracts signed. The main issue as I see it is that Jackson doesn’t have an a year left on his current contract, so him getting the same numbers as the other guys (and substantially less than Kyler) doesn’t really make sense when they’d still have the fourth year of their rookie deal as an additional guarantee.

[Ice]

Lamar already got those guarantees you speak of and it is not like the Ravens were not offering contracts for the last 2 years. Lamar just didn't sign any offers.

[ericanadian]

Lamar already got those guarantees you speak of and it is not like the Ravens were not offering contracts for the last 2 years. Lamar just didn't sign any offers.

Services were rendered for Lamar’s rookie deal so of course he got those guarantees. In the case of the other guys, the team had not received services, so those teams were on the hook for greater term, greater dollars and greater risk than what the Ravens would be committing to right now based on their most recent contract offer to Lamar. The teams also had a fifth year option they could’ve used as leverage against the players in all but Wilson’s case.

[Valhalla]

Arguing that Kyler’s contract has no relevance to Lamar’s because “they had a 5th year option they could have used as leverage so that’s why Kyler negotiated for less than what Lamar should get” forgets that the ravens have the franchise tag they can use for leverage. Like it or not, Kyler’s contract (and other recent contracts) ARE a relevant negotiating piece.

[ericanadian]

Arguing that Kyler’s contract has no relevance to Lamar’s because “they had a 5th year option they could have used as leverage so that’s why Kyler negotiated for less than what Lamar should get” forgets that the ravens have the franchise tag they can use for leverage. Like it or not, Kyler’s contract (and other recent contracts) ARE a relevant negotiating piece.

The Cardinals had a fourth year, could’ve used the fifth and then tagged him twice. They effectively had Kyler under team control for four more years. The Ravens can use the tag this year and next. Two is less than four and years of team control is leverage for the team.

Maybe I follow baseball too much, but years of team control defines most contracts there. Guys sign early way under market to get long term security. If anyone gets within a year or so of free agency, the price goes up substantially.

[FantasyFreak]

I've seen nothing from Lamar Jackson that makes me think he can win a Super Bowl, paying him a big time contract will make it even more difficult. The Ravens big year, they were notorious for playing with the lead. They were built for it. Lamar isn't a QB who can play from behind consistently, he has not shown that ability. That's not being talked about, and yeah, receiving weapons, blah, blah. He had an upper echelon TE and a really good young player in Hollywood, I'm not going to pretend he had elite WR's, but when you're talking about the amount of guaranteed money he wants, he just hasn't shown the proclivity as a passer for a sample size worthy of what he is asking for.

Too much of his game is built around his running ability, which is a risk, due to any major knee, ankle injury etc. He's not particularly accurate, nor does he read the field all that well as a passer. He is able to create due to his athleticism, but really, he's never breached 4,000 yards, in a pass happy league with rules to allow marginal passing QB's compared to supposedly elite talents to do so, That is what NFL owners know, as do many fans. He's a fantastic talent, but his game, right now, does not lend well to a deep playoff run, or the aging process, or a major injury.

I think Lamar actually knows this too, which is why I don't blame him for trying to get as much as possible on this next deal. I don't think it's far fetched that he's where Cam Newton is, at Cam's age.

[Bronco Billy]

I've seen nothing from Lamar Jackson that makes me think he can win a Super Bowl, paying him a big time contract will make it even more difficult. The Ravens big year, they were notorious for playing with the lead. They were built for it. Lamar isn't a QB who can play from behind consistently, he has not shown that ability. That's not being talked about, and yeah, receiving weapons, blah, blah. He had an upper echelon TE and a really good young player in Hollywood, I'm not going to pretend he had elite WR's, but when you're talking about the amount of guaranteed money he wants, he just hasn't shown the proclivity as a passer for a sample size worthy of what he is asking for.

Too much of his game is built around his running ability, which is a risk, due to any major knee, ankle injury etc. He's not particularly accurate, nor does he read the field all that well as a passer. He is able to create due to his athleticism, but really, he's never breached 4,000 yards, in a pass happy league with rules to allow marginal passing QB's compared to supposedly elite talents to do so, That is what NFL owners know, as do many fans. He's a fantastic talent, but his game, right now, does not lend well to a deep playoff run, or the aging process, or a major injury.

I think Lamar actually knows this too, which is why I don't blame him for trying to get as much as possible on this next deal. I don't think it's far fetched that he's where Cam Newton is, at Cam's age.

Nicely done FF. Captures the root of the issue perfectly.

[thebeast]

I've seen nothing from Lamar Jackson that makes me think he can win a Super Bowl, paying him a big time contract will make it even more difficult. The Ravens big year, they were notorious for playing with the lead. They were built for it. Lamar isn't a QB who can play from behind consistently, he has not shown that ability. That's not being talked about, and yeah, receiving weapons, blah, blah. He had an upper echelon TE and a really good young player in Hollywood, I'm not going to pretend he had elite WR's, but when you're talking about the amount of guaranteed money he wants, he just hasn't shown the proclivity as a passer for a sample size worthy of what he is asking for.

Too much of his game is built around his running ability, which is a risk, due to any major knee, ankle injury etc. He's not particularly accurate, nor does he read the field all that well as a passer. He is able to create due to his athleticism, but really, he's never breached 4,000 yards, in a pass happy league with rules to allow marginal passing QB's compared to supposedly elite talents to do so, That is what NFL owners know, as do many fans. He's a fantastic talent, but his game, right now, does not lend well to a deep playoff run, or the aging process, or a major injury.

I think Lamar actually knows this too, which is why I don't blame him for trying to get as much as possible on this next deal. I don't think it's far fetched that he's where Cam Newton is, at Cam's age.

Nicely done FF. Captures the root of the issue perfectly.

While I’m sure a 26 year old former unanimous mvp is thinking that this is his one shot to get a big deal opinions of whether Lamar can win a Super Bowl or not have nothing to do with the issue. The Ravens think they can win a Super Bowl with Lamar, if they didn’t they wouldn’t have offered him the massive deal that has been repeated throughout this thread. The root of the issue is guaranteed contracts. Lamar wants one and the Ravens (and 28 other teams) don’t want to give one to him or to anyone. That’s the issue.

[Valhalla]

Arguing that Kyler’s contract has no relevance to Lamar’s because “they had a 5th year option they could have used as leverage so that’s why Kyler negotiated for less than what Lamar should get” forgets that the ravens have the franchise tag they can use for leverage. Like it or not, Kyler’s contract (and other recent contracts) ARE a relevant negotiating piece.

The Cardinals had a fourth year, could’ve used the fifth and then tagged him twice. They effectively had Kyler under team control for four more years. The Ravens can use the tag this year and next. Two is less than four and years of team control is leverage for the team.

Maybe I follow baseball too much, but years of team control defines most contracts there. Guys sign early way under market to get long term security. If anyone gets within a year or so of free agency, the price goes up substantially.

Fair point. There's still relevance to the recent contracts though.
I'm not arguing that Jackson shouldn't be asking for more than what Kyler got. Just arguing that the structure of it is a structure the team giving the next contract will point to.

[Yarnith]

While I’m sure a 26 year old former unanimous mvp is thinking that this is his one shot to get a big deal opinions of whether Lamar can win a Super Bowl or not have nothing to do with the issue. The Ravens think they can win a Super Bowl with Lamar, if they didn’t they wouldn’t have offered him the massive deal that has been repeated throughout this thread. The root of the issue is guaranteed contracts. Lamar wants one and the Ravens (and 28 other teams) don’t want to give one to him or to anyone. That’s the issue.

174 ypg career passing, 4 career 300+ yard passing games, 8 missed games in 2years going 7-5 and 8-4 16 and 17 passing TDs over those 2 years.

Your statement would be less comical if it didn't look like he peaked at 23 in 2019 and has gotten worse ever since. Everything since his MVP year appears to justify the concerns people have with Lamar. He bet on himself and he lost. If teams aren't worried about guaranteeing huge money to QBs like Lamar and Lamar is not worried about his longevity in the league they are fools.

[ericanadian]

Arguing that Kyler’s contract has no relevance to Lamar’s because “they had a 5th year option they could have used as leverage so that’s why Kyler negotiated for less than what Lamar should get” forgets that the ravens have the franchise tag they can use for leverage. Like it or not, Kyler’s contract (and other recent contracts) ARE a relevant negotiating piece.

The Cardinals had a fourth year, could’ve used the fifth and then tagged him twice. They effectively had Kyler under team control for four more years. The Ravens can use the tag this year and next. Two is less than four and years of team control is leverage for the team.

Maybe I follow baseball too much, but years of team control defines most contracts there. Guys sign early way under market to get long term security. If anyone gets within a year or so of free agency, the price goes up substantially.

Fair point. There's still relevance to the recent contracts though.
I'm not arguing that Jackson shouldn't be asking for more than what Kyler got. Just arguing that the structure of it is a structure the team giving the next contract will point to.

Oh, I totally agree. For me, Lamar would get something comparable to the previous guys’ contracts adjusted for inflation with an extra $10M-$20M given the fewer years of control for the team. You can throw out the Watson deal and negotiate around the Kyler deal even. If the team offers between $190M-$200M in practical guarantees, Jackson should strongly consider it. I could see pushing for $210M-$215M based on Kyler’s deal, but seems like a hill not worth dying on.

[thebeast]

While I’m sure a 26 year old former unanimous mvp is thinking that this is his one shot to get a big deal opinions of whether Lamar can win a Super Bowl or not have nothing to do with the issue. The Ravens think they can win a Super Bowl with Lamar, if they didn’t they wouldn’t have offered him the massive deal that has been repeated throughout this thread. The root of the issue is guaranteed contracts. Lamar wants one and the Ravens (and 28 other teams) don’t want to give one to him or to anyone. That’s the issue.

174 ypg career passing, 4 career 300+ yard passing games, 8 missed games in 2years going 7-5 and 8-4 16 and 17 passing TDs over those 2 years.

Your statement would be less comical if it didn't look like he peaked at 23 in 2019 and has gotten worse ever since. Everything since his MVP year appears to justify the concerns people have with Lamar. He bet on himself and he lost. If teams aren't worried about guaranteeing huge money to QBs like Lamar and Lamar is not worried about his longevity in the league they are fools.

That's what you took away from my comments? You actually think an alpha QB thinks he has peaked? And the Ravens reportedly offered Jackson a guaranteed $133 million at signing, $175 million if he got injured, and $200 million springing guarantee if he is on the roster on the fifth day of 2026 league year. So, how exactly did he bet on himself and lose? Has some date passed that he can no longer sign a contract?

[Ice]

Technically yes that date has passed.

The only contract offer he can actually sign today is his Tag.

That said, he can sign a single contract from one outside team to take to the Ravens for matching purposes or compensation.

Lamar rejected his last big offer so that contract doesn’t exist any longer.

[Yarnith]

While I’m sure a 26 year old former unanimous mvp is thinking that this is his one shot to get a big deal opinions of whether Lamar can win a Super Bowl or not have nothing to do with the issue. The Ravens think they can win a Super Bowl with Lamar, if they didn’t they wouldn’t have offered him the massive deal that has been repeated throughout this thread. The root of the issue is guaranteed contracts. Lamar wants one and the Ravens (and 28 other teams) don’t want to give one to him or to anyone. That’s the issue.

174 ypg career passing, 4 career 300+ yard passing games, 8 missed games in 2years going 7-5 and 8-4 16 and 17 passing TDs over those 2 years.

Your statement would be less comical if it didn't look like he peaked at 23 in 2019 and has gotten worse ever since. Everything since his MVP year appears to justify the concerns people have with Lamar. He bet on himself and he lost. If teams aren't worried about guaranteeing huge money to QBs like Lamar and Lamar is not worried about his longevity in the league they are fools.

That's what you took away from my comments? You actually think an alpha QB thinks he has peaked? And the Ravens reportedly offered Jackson a guaranteed $133 million at signing, $175 million if he got injured, and $200 million springing guarantee if he is on the roster on the fifth day of 2026 league year. So, how exactly did he bet on himself and lose? Has some date passed that he can no longer sign a contract?

In order of asking....I took away that you think its crazy Lamar thinks he can sign a deal and then get a better one when he is 30 or 31. I think its crazy to think that this wont be the best deal he ever gets. Yes he Peaked. He failed to take the deals offered early, got hurt a lot and performed worse for 2 years so is not getting Mahomes money. And yes the date passed he failed.

[thebeast]

Technically yes that date has passed.

The only contract offer he can actually sign today is his Tag.

That said, he can sign a single contract from one outside team to take to the Ravens for matching purposes or compensation.

Lamar rejected his last big offer so that contract doesn’t exist any longer.

So you're saying that Lamar can no longer sign a long-term deal with the Ravens?