Purdy vs Lance 2023

[Payton34]

Now reading Tommy John, full year recovery time.

[BabyChark23]

Now reading Tommy John, full year recovery time.

Source? I can’t find it.

[halfbaked88]

Come on now, Do I really need to explain this little light heart type post with all the talk of running QB's over the last few years? Oh well, here you go: The Bears finished with a league worst 3-14 record, Fields is great at running but it didn't really help.

And how did he do in fantasy?.......................

9 Top 10 QB finishes.

I guess, I'll say it again: Lance does NOT have to be good to be a Top 5 Fantasy QB. All he needs is to be: there.

Fields early in 22' was DEAD. He was sold for two 2nds in one of my leagues. The same kind of dead outlook people have for Lance now. Hence, why I made the Fields comparison.

Except add CMC, Deebo, Aiyuk and Kittle..... vs Monty, Dante Pettis, Equanimeous St Brown, Kmet, N'Keal Harry...

Lance's ceiling is Fields++

How? He doesn't have more rushing upside. Lance looked fairly pedestrian as a runner, in his brief time, and he's had a major injury running the ball already. Sure, he has better weapons, but he doesn't have the same rushing upside, Fields was insanely good there.

Never said Lance had more rushing upside. No one, other than Lamar, is up there with Fields in rushing alone. Fields threw for a flaccid 150yds just about every game last year. He solely dominated with his legs. Fields ran a 4.5 and Lance ran a 4.69; the difference in athleticism is very apparent. But the supporting casts are so vastly different. Factor in the run-option with CMC and that SF O-line I think Lance could be right up there with him in fantasy.

Before Fields two monstrous games week 9 and 10 last year, 15att 178yds and 13att 147yds... almost all of his Wk5 post-breakout games finished between 70-95 yds on the ground. Lance, who's played a handful of games has a game with 16att 89 yds.(wk6 2021.) Fields didn't top that yard total until those week 9+10 games mentioned earlier. Lance did it his 2nd NFL start.

If you look at college stats, there was a very wide differential in playing time. Lance played 19 games in college vs Fields 34 games, Lance 300 pass attempts vs 618 pass attempts, 16.7 vs 18.2 attempts per game, 2947 yds vs 5701 yds, 30td/1int vs 67td/9int. It was a completely different level of competition, take that into account with caveats, but it's what we have to compare.

In rushing, Lance produced just as many rushing TDs as Fields 18tds vs 19tds, more rushing yards 1325yds vs 1133yds, and far outpaced in yards per attempt at 6.9yds vs 4.4yds in about half the playing time.

I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility for Lance to eclipse Fields in fantasy.

[murphysxm]

I don’t roster people that have a realm of possibility to maybe do something. I lost too many times. Lance could also never take another NFL snap. I think the chance of Lance achieving the fantasy “potential” desired by some is so drastically unlikely that the love for owning him is confusing to me.

[halfbaked88]

I don’t roster people that have a realm of possibility to maybe do something. I lost too many times. Lance could also never take another NFL snap. I think the chance of Lance achieving the fantasy “potential” desired by some is so drastically unlikely that the love for owning him is confusing to me.

When you only have about 8 QBs in fantasy that people feel good about. You have no choice but to look at the "other QBs." The guys with injury risks, short contracts, vets on new contracts, underperformers, small sample sizes, etc etc guys that could "potentially" be QB1s.

You're really overstating how dead Lance is based on 4 starts and an ankle injury. Him never playing another snap is probably the most unlikely outcome in all of this.

I've seen what just moderate rushing yards does to QBs like Daniel Jones or Ryan Tannehill in the past; and others. Lance is twice the rusher they are. If he sustains any starting QB role; his rushing production will always be the kind of highly coveted QB you want in fantasy.

[Ice]

Huh??

Come on now, Do I really need to explain this little light heart type post with all the talk of running QB's over the last few years? Oh well, here you go: The Bears finished with a league worst 3-14 record, Fields is great at running but it didn't really help.

And how did he do in fantasy?.......................

9 Top 10 QB finishes.

I guess, I'll say it again: Lance does NOT have to be good to be a Top 5 Fantasy QB. All he needs is to be: there.

Fields early in 22' was DEAD. He was sold for two 2nds in one of my leagues. The same kind of dead outlook people have for Lance now. Hence, why I made the Fields comparison.

Except add CMC, Deebo, Aiyuk and Kittle..... vs Monty, Dante Pettis, Equanimeous St Brown, Kmet, N'Keal Harry...

Lance's ceiling is Fields++

Believe it or not; Not every single post on this site is serious. It is why there are few different emojis. I even explained it wasn't serious. His stats are obvious..

Take a joke man!

Carry On.

[halfbaked88]

Come on now, Do I really need to explain this little light heart type post with all the talk of running QB's over the last few years? Oh well, here you go: The Bears finished with a league worst 3-14 record, Fields is great at running but it didn't really help.

And how did he do in fantasy?.......................

9 Top 10 QB finishes.

I guess, I'll say it again: Lance does NOT have to be good to be a Top 5 Fantasy QB. All he needs is to be: there.

Fields early in 22' was DEAD. He was sold for two 2nds in one of my leagues. The same kind of dead outlook people have for Lance now. Hence, why I made the Fields comparison.

Except add CMC, Deebo, Aiyuk and Kittle..... vs Monty, Dante Pettis, Equanimeous St Brown, Kmet, N'Keal Harry...

Lance's ceiling is Fields++

Believe it or not; Not every single post on this site is serious. It is why there are few different emojis. I even explained it wasn't serious. His stats are obvious..

Take a joke man!

Carry On.

If that's a joke... where's the punchline?

[Ice]

And how did he do in fantasy?.......................

9 Top 10 QB finishes.

I guess, I'll say it again: Lance does NOT have to be good to be a Top 5 Fantasy QB. All he needs is to be: there.

Fields early in 22' was DEAD. He was sold for two 2nds in one of my leagues. The same kind of dead outlook people have for Lance now. Hence, why I made the Fields comparison.

Except add CMC, Deebo, Aiyuk and Kittle..... vs Monty, Dante Pettis, Equanimeous St Brown, Kmet, N'Keal Harry...

Lance's ceiling is Fields++

Believe it or not; Not every single post on this site is serious. It is why there are few different emojis. I even explained it wasn't serious. His stats are obvious..

Take a joke man!

Carry On.

If that's a joke... where's the punchline?

Wow!

Good Luck, too busy to waste anymore time on this.
Enjoy the rest of the weekend!

[Payton34]

Now reading Tommy John, full year recovery time.

Source? I can’t find it.

Hmmm, see it a few places, but I guess no major sources saying it yet…

https://www.totalprosports.com/nfl/49er ... n-surgery/

[dondickenson]

Now reading Tommy John, full year recovery time.

Source? I can’t find it.

Hmmm, see it a few places, but I guess no major sources saying it yet…

https://www.totalprosports.com/nfl/49er ... n-surgery/

That was a random unaffiliated doc speculating. This guy:

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/imag ... M9hrLsFyQp

Niners say otherwise, that Purdy could even be ready for training camp.

[FantasyFreak]

I don’t roster people that have a realm of possibility to maybe do something. I lost too many times. Lance could also never take another NFL snap. I think the chance of Lance achieving the fantasy “potential” desired by some is so drastically unlikely that the love for owning him is confusing to me.

I feel like a lot of this thread is ownership bias in denial. People aren't being realistic about the range of probable outcomes. The possible outcomes is Lance is out of the league next year, and he becomes the greatest QB of all time, technically. The probable outcomes from when he was drafted need to be heavily adjusted, IMO, and that's not happening because some people who drafted him are holding out hope. I get it, and it's still possible he excels. It's just really a lot less likely than it was 2 years ago, looking at his career outlook.

His career arc has taken a massive hit over 2 years, he really needed more playing time, especially with the current situation of this team. He's had no time to develop. He's basically the same guy he was at NDSU, with an injury and a ton of pressure to live up to, and it sucks for him. The pressure is exponential now, because his "development" time is essentially over, the time to be able to do it is now, and he hasn't really had the chance to develop.

There's very little chance he's capable of leading them to a SB next year, and that's what they are looking for, and needing.

[cazzie33]

But, But. ... DRAFT CAPITAL !!!

I Hear that all the time but in this case the 7th rd Mr. Irrelevant plays well for a few games in the most ideal situations (great support in run game , defense , game script, etc... ) and the 3rd overall pick who it took 3 1sts to get is likely buried.

Which is it ?

Just to be clear I'm in the camp they'd prefer a healthy Purdy over Lance going into camp which shoots the draft capital theory all to hell. Also think they'd love to see the light bulb go on for Trey & he starts getting it to make it a difficult decision. That way they don't look as bad for spending so much for Lance.

But now we have 2 injured young mostly untested QBs coming back leaving the 49er's in a quandary. Do they bring in a vet or roll with young pups & hope for one to be the man ?

[mild]

But, But. ... DRAFT CAPITAL !!!

I Hear that all the time but in this case the 7th rd Mr. Irrelevant plays well for a few games in the most ideal situations (great support in run game , defense , game script, etc... ) and the 3rd overall pick who it took 3 1sts to get is likely buried.

Which is it ?

Normally, it's "Draft Capital" and take it to the bank. But if there's one (OK, there's a couple) organisation, and in particular, one coach - who doesn't give a rats a-- about when he drafted you, once you're in the building - it's Kyle Shanahan.

Remember when Dante Pettis got drafted in the 2nd round (!!!), balled out his Rookie year, then was ostensibly fired into the sun? He never escaped the Shanahan dog house and was literally waived before his 3rd season.

Remember when we all drafted Trey Sermon because he had more draft capital than "the 6th round rookie" even though we could all see he was probably as slow as molasses? "Draft capital" got a lot of people burnt that year.

Remember when the 49ers spent a 1st rounder on a WR, and he once again balled out in his Rookie season... only for Shannahan to put him in the dog box in Year 2 because he didn't like his work ethic? Aiyuk escaped, but only because he learnt the lesson and doubled down.

Shanny just wants to win. He don't care. He'll use the guys that give him the best chance to win, by his estimation.

And I think he thinks that's Purdy right now, and it's sounding like the Locker Room agrees.

[halfbaked88]

I don’t roster people that have a realm of possibility to maybe do something. I lost too many times. Lance could also never take another NFL snap. I think the chance of Lance achieving the fantasy “potential” desired by some is so drastically unlikely that the love for owning him is confusing to me.

I feel like a lot of this thread is ownership bias in denial. People aren't being realistic about the range of probable outcomes. The possible outcomes is Lance is out of the league next year, and he becomes the greatest QB of all time, technically. The probable outcomes from when he was drafted need to be heavily adjusted, IMO, and that's not happening because some people who drafted him are holding out hope. I get it, and it's still possible he excels. It's just really a lot less likely than it was 2 years ago, looking at his career outlook.

His career arc has taken a massive hit over 2 years, he really needed more playing time, especially with the current situation of this team. He's had no time to develop. He's basically the same guy he was at NDSU, with an injury and a ton of pressure to live up to, and it sucks for him. The pressure is exponential now, because his "development" time is essentially over, the time to be able to do it is now, and he hasn't really had the chance to develop.

There's very little chance he's capable of leading them to a SB next year, and that's what they are looking for, and needing.

This is a balanced take. I have a dynasty start-up after the SB and I'm predicting Lance goes slightly above D Jones/Cousins/R Wilson. Maybe in-between those QBs somewhere. I think that's about where he should go. He was being drafted in the 2nd round at peak value and is now a 4th/5th round start-up pick. That seems like an appropriate value-drop weighing in the 'possibility' and 'probability' of outcomes. To me, holding out hope for Trey Lance is still very much a simple question of 'risk vs. reward.'

If the risk is losing out on, at best, a 1.10 vs being rewarded with a Top 8 dynasty QB then I'm willing to take the risk. When a QB hits he smashes. A lot of teams with Trey Lance are not one late 1st away from a championship, they probably need a QB, so he's a hold. I would rather have Lance than Levis/Richardson personally and they probably won't be available with a late 1st anyway with the way the QB landscape looks in 23'

If we're trying to be realistic here, Purdy has a major injury to his throwing arm. Are we not weighing the 'probability' that this type of injury presents a substantial obstacle to overcome for a young QB? Are we also counting the missed developmental time spent rehabbing against him?

Or considering that Purdy is being shown signs of bias, and "hope," projecting on shorter side of the recovery timeline for the "possibility" of him making it back in time for training camp, vs the possibility of a setback/longer recovery, and just picking back up where he left off, after not practicing football for months?

If you really want look at things at face value: Lance should be 100% by camp and in much better shape and preparation than Purdy will be. The odds are objectively in Trey Lance's favor.

[dondickenson]

Was watching a Niners YouTube interview of Aiyuk last night. He was describing how when Jimmy got hurt he was unsure of having Purdy step in, but after they won that game he thought that Purdy played surprisingly well. And then two games later he thought “OK I have no doubt. We’re just fine. This dude is a different dude.” It was pretty clear he/they were talking about Brock as the future.

Matt Maiocco, 49ers insider/beat writer, said after talking to a number of players following the loss to the Eagles that “there will be a lot of pissed off people in this locker room if Brock Purdy is not the starter next season.”

Haberman & Middlekauf(former Raiders/As post game, 49ers radio guys): “I think every single one of us would be shocked if, when healthy, Brock Purdy is not the starting quarterback.”

Of course there was this that we all saw from a few weeks ago from Mike Silver: “On Thursday I talked to two people with knowledge of the organization's plans, and they confirmed what is already semi-obvious: the battle is over, and Purdy has won.”