Justin Herbert Long Term

[Patsfan86]

My opinion is still Mahomes over herbert right now but i mean the gap did close a bit in my mind due to Mahomes collapse in the AFC championship game. People can say "Oh it was only 1 game" all they want but QBs are judged on those moments and Mahomes didnt perform. Yes i understand Herbert hasnt even made the playoffs and we have no idea yet if he would choke like that but the gap still did close a little bit for me. In the end im still taking Mahomes.

[Jfever]

My opinion is still Mahomes over herbert right now but i mean the gap did close a bit in my mind due to Mahomes collapse in the AFC championship game. People can say "Oh it was only 1 game" all they want but QBs are judged on those moments and Mahomes didnt perform. Yes i understand Herbert hasnt even made the playoffs and we have no idea yet if he would choke like that but the gap still did close a little bit for me. In the end im still taking Mahomes.

I could certainly understand your logic here of the gap closing if say - Herbert did lead his team to the playoffs. But; He didn't. So, seems a bit odd don't ya think?

To each their own as always but, without some type of bias involved, it seems hard to wrap my head around the logic involved when folks start the mental gymnastics here. Mahomes on talent and fantasy production is in a tier of his own. After him, I can totally see the argument for Herbert being in the top 5 if dynasty qb's.

[Jfever]

My opinion is still Mahomes over herbert right now but i mean the gap did close a bit in my mind due to Mahomes collapse in the AFC championship game. People can say "Oh it was only 1 game" all they want but QBs are judged on those moments and Mahomes didnt perform. Yes i understand Herbert hasnt even made the playoffs and we have no idea yet if he would choke like that but the gap still did close a little bit for me. In the end im still taking Mahomes.

I could certainly understand your logic here of the gap closing if say - Herbert did lead his team to the playoffs. But; He didn't. So, seems a bit odd don't ya think?

To each their own as always but, without some type of bias involved, it seems hard to wrap my head around the logic involved when folks start the mental gymnastics here. Mahomes on talent and fantasy production is in a tier of his own. Then one has to consider J.Allen, After him, I can totally see the argument for Herbert being in the top 5 of dynasty qb's.

[FantasyFreak]

My opinion is still Mahomes over herbert right now but i mean the gap did close a bit in my mind due to Mahomes collapse in the AFC championship game. People can say "Oh it was only 1 game" all they want but QBs are judged on those moments and Mahomes didnt perform. Yes i understand Herbert hasnt even made the playoffs and we have no idea yet if he would choke like that but the gap still did close a little bit for me. In the end im still taking Mahomes.

I could certainly understand your logic here of the gap closing if say - Herbert did lead his team to the playoffs. But; He didn't. So, seems a bit odd don't ya think?

To each their own as always but, without some type of bias involved, it seems hard to wrap my head around the logic involved when folks start the mental gymnastics here. Mahomes on talent and fantasy production is in a tier of his own. After him, I can totally see the argument for Herbert being in the top 5 if dynasty qb's.

Disagree. He's a top QB, but he's not in a tier of his own. PFF's what, 13th graded QB this year? He's talented, but flawed. He also isn't outproducing people from a FF perspective. His contract kicks in next year, Hill is a FA soon, and Kelce is getting up there. That's only going to make things more difficult for him. Mahomes took the league by storm, but he hasn't hit that first year ceiling again, and that could very well be his high water mark. He's going to be a top FF producer yearly, but he's not lapping the field, or giving a distinct positional advantage over other top FF QB's. Josh Allen has outproduced him the last 2 years, for instance. Not sure why Allen shouldn't be in the same tier.

[StripesOfKC]

My opinion is still Mahomes over herbert right now but i mean the gap did close a bit in my mind due to Mahomes collapse in the AFC championship game. People can say "Oh it was only 1 game" all they want but QBs are judged on those moments and Mahomes didnt perform. Yes i understand Herbert hasnt even made the playoffs and we have no idea yet if he would choke like that but the gap still did close a little bit for me. In the end im still taking Mahomes.

I could certainly understand your logic here of the gap closing if say - Herbert did lead his team to the playoffs. But; He didn't. So, seems a bit odd don't ya think?

To each their own as always but, without some type of bias involved, it seems hard to wrap my head around the logic involved when folks start the mental gymnastics here. Mahomes on talent and fantasy production is in a tier of his own. After him, I can totally see the argument for Herbert being in the top 5 if dynasty qb's.

Disagree. He's a top QB, but he's not in a tier of his own. PFF's what, 13th graded QB this year? He's talented, but flawed. He also isn't outproducing people from a FF perspective. His contract kicks in next year, Hill is a FA soon, and Kelce is getting up there. That's only going to make things more difficult for him. Mahomes took the league by storm, but he hasn't hit that first year ceiling again, and that could very well be his high water mark. He's going to be a top FF producer yearly, but he's not lapping the field, or giving a distinct positional advantage over other top FF QB's. Josh Allen has outproduced him the last 2 years, for instance. Not sure why Allen shouldn't be in the same tier.

Allen should. Herbert shouldn't

Read up on his "massive crippling contract" before taking Kyler Murray or Joe Burrow over him btw

[FantasyFreak]

I could certainly understand your logic here of the gap closing if say - Herbert did lead his team to the playoffs. But; He didn't. So, seems a bit odd don't ya think?

To each their own as always but, without some type of bias involved, it seems hard to wrap my head around the logic involved when folks start the mental gymnastics here. Mahomes on talent and fantasy production is in a tier of his own. After him, I can totally see the argument for Herbert being in the top 5 if dynasty qb's.

Disagree. He's a top QB, but he's not in a tier of his own. PFF's what, 13th graded QB this year? He's talented, but flawed. He also isn't outproducing people from a FF perspective. His contract kicks in next year, Hill is a FA soon, and Kelce is getting up there. That's only going to make things more difficult for him. Mahomes took the league by storm, but he hasn't hit that first year ceiling again, and that could very well be his high water mark. He's going to be a top FF producer yearly, but he's not lapping the field, or giving a distinct positional advantage over other top FF QB's. Josh Allen has outproduced him the last 2 years, for instance. Not sure why Allen shouldn't be in the same tier.

Allen should. Herbert shouldn't

Read up on his "massive crippling contract" before taking Kyler Murray or Joe Burrow over him btw

I am well aware of his contract. My point is, he has been on his rookie deal up until now. This contract makes it harder for them to build around him, there's not an argument against that. Allen's will too when it kicks in for 2023. Burrow and Herbert still have a few years of a cheaper deal for their teams. In terms of FF production, I don't see Herbert much below Allen or Mahomes for FF. He's put up numbers since he set foot in the league, I don't see that changing. I'd have him just below those 2, but not by much. People are free to have Mahomes in a tier on his own if they want, but the numbers simply don't suggest that should be the case.

[Jigga94]

I still have Mahomes at the top. As much as I would likely never trade him in my 2QB leagues, Herbert is one of the few QB that I would deal Mahomes for. Of course, I'd need something on top to make it happen, but it's a short list of QB that I'd trade down to. Herbert is definitely in my top 5 QB, probably 3rd

[zaner75]

Article in the Athletic by Daniel Popper - Chargers minicamp takeaways: Jalen Guyton stands out, Austin Ekeler’s offseason

"6. I have written a lot about how important continuity — in the offensive coaching staff, scheme and personnel — is going to be to Herbert’s development as he enters Year 3. Offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi said earlier this spring that he and the offensive staff have been able to move onto “Football 202” level concepts and discussions with Herbert this offseason thanks to that familiarity. I asked Herbert if he could provide examples of some of those “Football 202” things.

“An example would be using your cadence more,” Herbert said. “It’s one thing when you’re going into a new playbook and you’re trying to memorize all the calls and go out there to the huddle and get it right. And so the easy thing is to just say, ‘On one,’ clap and get out. But now it’s, all right, I know the play, I know all these kills and alerts, now I’m going to start using my cadence to maybe get the defense to jump offsides. It’s a weapon you can use. And if you can kind of start getting better in areas like that, little by little, I think that’s really helpful, too.”

This is what I am talking about when I refer to Herbert mastering Lombardi’s system. If Herbert can throw for 5,000 yards and 38 touchdowns when he is still just trying to grasp the system, what will it look like when he becomes proficient in the finer details? We are going to find out."

ORoY coming off the bench cold. 5000/38 in a new system. We may see a record-breaking season from Herbert. Can definitely see him on the Peyton Manning track of being the pseudo-O coordinator on the field when he has fully mastered the system. Scary to consider how he can become even better. 2 systems in 2 years is usually a good way to stunt a QB career. I'd have no issues taking him QB1.

[FantasyFreak]

I was way off. Herbert, yes he is/was playing hurt, but he's not in Mahomes's tier. He's regressed this year. Still a ton of talent, but Mahomes with no Tyreek, is still the MVP favourite as of now. I put my money down on Pat after week 1 for that honour. Yes, Hill was a huge connection and was very special, but they are both special players, clearly. Andy Reid would liekly be retired right now if he still had the likes of Alex Smith.

Reid is still good coach, but Mahomes got him that SB. He did his part, Andy did, to not waste that talent, he was/is a competent enough coach to not do that, and it's good for football Mahomes got a stable guy like Andy, who is a top tier coach... but Reid got his SB because he fell into a generational, all time talent, as a really good coach. Lots of really good coaches never win a SB.

Pat is clearly special and Herbert is really good. Lots of really good QB's never win a SB though....

Herbert may be great someday, but he's just not right now, and Mahomes is.

[Pac_Eddy]

Herbert isn't in the Mahomes & Josh Allen tier, agree on that. I think he's just below. This year, as you said, he's playing with a rib injury and has lost his top two WRs. He doesn't seem to really trust any one receiver with those two out. Just Ekeler I suppose. I think he'll bounce back once everyone is healthy.

Now is a good time to buy low on him.

[FantasyFreak]

Herbert isn't in the Mahomes & Josh Allen tier, agree on that. I think he's just below. This year, as you said, he's playing with a rib injury and has lost his top two WRs. He doesn't seem to really trust any one receiver with those two out. Just Ekeler I suppose. I think he'll bounce back once everyone is healthy.

Now is a good time to buy low on him.

Yep. I was saying he was, and even suggested he may be better than Pat, late last year. That's where I was way off, and I fully admit it. Mahomes just has that "je ne sais quois". He's an all time great, you can just see it. Herbert, not quite.

[Pac_Eddy]

Herbert isn't in the Mahomes & Josh Allen tier, agree on that. I think he's just below. This year, as you said, he's playing with a rib injury and has lost his top two WRs. He doesn't seem to really trust any one receiver with those two out. Just Ekeler I suppose. I think he'll bounce back once everyone is healthy.

Now is a good time to buy low on him.

Yep. I was saying he was, and even suggested he may be better than Pat, late last year. That's where I was way off, and I fully admit it. Mahomes just has that "je ne sais quois". He's an all time great, you can just see it. Herbert, not quite.

I bet if Andy Reid had Herbert instead of Mahomes, Justin would be in the top tier. Agree with what we have today though. Mahomes & Reid are unstoppable, and will be for some time.

[FantasyFreak]

Herbert isn't in the Mahomes & Josh Allen tier, agree on that. I think he's just below. This year, as you said, he's playing with a rib injury and has lost his top two WRs. He doesn't seem to really trust any one receiver with those two out. Just Ekeler I suppose. I think he'll bounce back once everyone is healthy.

Now is a good time to buy low on him.

Yep. I was saying he was, and even suggested he may be better than Pat, late last year. That's where I was way off, and I fully admit it. Mahomes just has that "je ne sais quois". He's an all time great, you can just see it. Herbert, not quite.

I bet if Andy Reid had Herbert instead of Mahomes, Justin would be in the top tier. Agree with what we have today though. Mahomes & Reid are unstoppable, and will be for some time.

We can play that game all day with sooo many players. I think Mahomes is simply more talented. He's better outside of structure than Herbert is. Some guys are just naturals like that. Mahomes has that very special quality, unique quality outside of the play structure, when the coaches play becomes irrelevant. Herbert doesn't. Not to Pat's level. Pat is just special there, and it's obvious. No contest at that point. He's great inside, and outside of structure. So few are.

[CGW]

If you could find anyone selling low, I'd be buying all day. Their offensive line is average or below, and they are running out josh palmer and DeAndre carter as their WRs. Sure Mahommes is better and can do more with less, but I'm not sure I could compare Kelce, Juju, Hardman, and Toney to Palmer, Carter, and Everett.

[Lumps]

Justin is hurt. Line is playing terribly. Top WRs are hurt and the remainder are letting him down constantly with drops etc. Last night’s int hit his WR in the hands.

As has been said, if you can buy low, do so.