Please explain the Jonnu Smith hype

[mild]

TE is really a sack of potatoes after Kelce and Kittle. Just reach into the bag and grab one. Jonnu being TE7 says more about the position as a whole than it does about Jonnu being good.

Jonnu -is- good. He scored again, but he had only limited targets, again.

We're going to get to the end of the year and Jonnu is going to have 8-10 touchdowns and be hanging around the TE5 range, if not higher with Kittle now falling out. (He's got 8 more games to build on his current tally of 6 TD's)

No-one is confusing him for Kittle or Kelce. In the next tier of grab bag potatoes, I really don't think he's such a bad option - with TE, you're happy if you get a score, and you're ecstatic if you get two - or some good RAC yardage on top. Jonnu will have those games some weeks - and that's really all you can ask from the position once you're past the big two.

This thread was created back when he could be had for basically free. The return on investment thus far into 2020 has been more than worth "the hype".

[Jigga94]

TE is really a sack of potatoes after Kelce and Kittle. Just reach into the bag and grab one. Jonnu being TE7 says more about the position as a whole than it does about Jonnu being good.

Jonnu -is- good. He scored again, but he had only limited targets, again.

We're going to get to the end of the year and Jonnu is going to have 8-10 touchdowns and be hanging around the TE5 range, if not higher with Kittle now falling out. (He's got 8 more games to build on his current tally of 6 TD's)

No-one is confusing him for Kittle or Kelce. In the next tier of grab bag potatoes, I really don't think he's such a bad option - with TE, you're happy if you get a score, and you're ecstatic if you get two - or some good RAC yardage on top. Jonnu will have those games some weeks - and that's really all you can ask from the position once you're past the big two.

This thread was created back when he could be had for basically free. The return on investment thus far into 2020 has been more than worth "the hype".

1 in a bag of potatoes is spot on. You can buy them for fairly cheap compared to the premium potatoes. The hope is that using a couple in the bag gives you the same output as the premium one. Yet, half the bag of decent potatoes is rotten by next week and have to rely on the other potatoes from the bag. Meanwhile, you know deep down that you should have paid for the premium potato. But hey, at least the ones in the bag don't cost as much.

There's Kittle and Kelce. Maybe you can include Andrews here as well. He's my 3rd but probably more in a tier by himself at this point (or maybe with Kelce based on age)

Then there's in no order, Henry, Hock, Goedert, Fant, Engram, Waller, Jonnu, Gisecki, Ertz(?)... It's a mess. Not being overly ecstatic about Jonnu says more about the position. Guys like Hooper, Hurst, Ian Thomas, Irv, Higbee, Herndon are all guys that were or could've been ranked similarly at one point.

[CGW]

TE is really a sack of potatoes after Kelce and Kittle. Just reach into the bag and grab one. Jonnu being TE7 says more about the position as a whole than it does about Jonnu being good.

Jonnu -is- good. He scored again, but he had only limited targets, again.

We're going to get to the end of the year and Jonnu is going to have 8-10 touchdowns and be hanging around the TE5 range, if not higher with Kittle now falling out. (He's got 8 more games to build on his current tally of 6 TD's)

No-one is confusing him for Kittle or Kelce. In the next tier of grab bag potatoes, I really don't think he's such a bad option - with TE, you're happy if you get a score, and you're ecstatic if you get two - or some good RAC yardage on top. Jonnu will have those games some weeks - and that's really all you can ask from the position once you're past the big two.

This thread was created back when he could be had for basically free. The return on investment thus far into 2020 has been more than worth "the hype".

1 in a bag of potatoes is spot on. You can buy them for fairly cheap compared to the premium potatoes. The hope is that using a couple in the bag gives you the same output as the premium one. Yet, half the bag of decent potatoes is rotten by next week and have to rely on the other potatoes from the bag. Meanwhile, you know deep down that you should have paid for the premium potato. But hey, at least the ones in the bag don't cost as much.

There's Kittle and Kelce. Maybe you can include Andrews here as well. He's my 3rd but probably more in a tier by himself at this point (or maybe with Kelce based on age)

Then there's in no order, Henry, Hock, Goedert, Fant, Engram, Waller, Jonnu, Gisecki, Ertz(?)... It's a mess. Not being overly ecstatic about Jonnu says more about the position. Guys like Hooper, Hurst, Ian Thomas, Irv, Higbee, Herndon are all guys that were or could've been ranked similarly at one point.

Good assessment of the TE landscape. TE is so incredibly dependent on situation it's hard to predict or separate many of these guys after kittle and kelce. At this point, I'm not even sure Andrews is above the "sack of potatoes" tier despite his breakout last year.

[Jigga94]

Jonnu -is- good. He scored again, but he had only limited targets, again.

We're going to get to the end of the year and Jonnu is going to have 8-10 touchdowns and be hanging around the TE5 range, if not higher with Kittle now falling out. (He's got 8 more games to build on his current tally of 6 TD's)

No-one is confusing him for Kittle or Kelce. In the next tier of grab bag potatoes, I really don't think he's such a bad option - with TE, you're happy if you get a score, and you're ecstatic if you get two - or some good RAC yardage on top. Jonnu will have those games some weeks - and that's really all you can ask from the position once you're past the big two.

This thread was created back when he could be had for basically free. The return on investment thus far into 2020 has been more than worth "the hype".

1 in a bag of potatoes is spot on. You can buy them for fairly cheap compared to the premium potatoes. The hope is that using a couple in the bag gives you the same output as the premium one. Yet, half the bag of decent potatoes is rotten by next week and have to rely on the other potatoes from the bag. Meanwhile, you know deep down that you should have paid for the premium potato. But hey, at least the ones in the bag don't cost as much.

There's Kittle and Kelce. Maybe you can include Andrews here as well. He's my 3rd but probably more in a tier by himself at this point (or maybe with Kelce based on age)

Then there's in no order, Henry, Hock, Goedert, Fant, Engram, Waller, Jonnu, Gisecki, Ertz(?)... It's a mess. Not being overly ecstatic about Jonnu says more about the position. Guys like Hooper, Hurst, Ian Thomas, Irv, Higbee, Herndon are all guys that were or could've been ranked similarly at one point.

Good assessment of the TE landscape. TE is so incredibly dependent on situation it's hard to predict or separate many of these guys after kittle and kelce. At this point, I'm not even sure Andrews is above the "sack of potatoes" tier despite his breakout last year.

Yeah, Andrews was ahead of them but not so sure now. He's doing fine and I think it's a down season in which the offense just isn't very good. I think he will be fine, but if he costs a mid 1st and a potato costs a 2nd? Gimme a potato I guess lol

[Sriracha]

There's Kittle and Kelce. Maybe you can include Andrews here as well. He's my 3rd but probably more in a tier by himself at this point (or maybe with Kelce based on age)

Then there's in no order, Henry, Hock, Goedert, Fant, Engram, Waller, Jonnu, Gisecki, Ertz(?)... It's a mess. Not being overly ecstatic about Jonnu says more about the position. Guys like Hooper, Hurst, Ian Thomas, Irv, Higbee, Herndon are all guys that were or could've been ranked similarly at one point.

I really don't understand how Waller, Fant, Hock, and Goedert don't very, very clearly make up that 2nd wave. Situation is important -- and Gesiciki/Engram/Henry are in the perfect situations to produce and aren't putting up huge TE numbers.

The third wave for me is where it gets tricky.

[jenkins.math]

There's Kittle and Kelce. Maybe you can include Andrews here as well. He's my 3rd but probably more in a tier by himself at this point (or maybe with Kelce based on age)

Then there's in no order, Henry, Hock, Goedert, Fant, Engram, Waller, Jonnu, Gisecki, Ertz(?)... It's a mess. Not being overly ecstatic about Jonnu says more about the position. Guys like Hooper, Hurst, Ian Thomas, Irv, Higbee, Herndon are all guys that were or could've been ranked similarly at one point.

I really don't understand how Waller, Fant, Hock, and Goedert don't very, very clearly make up that 2nd wave. Situation is important -- and Gesiciki/Engram/Henry are in the perfect situations to produce and aren't putting up huge TE numbers.

The third wave for me is where it gets tricky.

That is my thoughts on the 2nd wave. I would probably put Andrews in that group as well instead of his own tier, but he would be at the top of that tier.

This 2021 class is a nice group of TEs too. If Kyle Pitts gets drafted in round 1 and gets a nice landing spot, he is probably going to be in that tier 2 group or at least the top of tier 3 at TE for me.

[Sriracha]

There's Kittle and Kelce. Maybe you can include Andrews here as well. He's my 3rd but probably more in a tier by himself at this point (or maybe with Kelce based on age)

Then there's in no order, Henry, Hock, Goedert, Fant, Engram, Waller, Jonnu, Gisecki, Ertz(?)... It's a mess. Not being overly ecstatic about Jonnu says more about the position. Guys like Hooper, Hurst, Ian Thomas, Irv, Higbee, Herndon are all guys that were or could've been ranked similarly at one point.

I really don't understand how Waller, Fant, Hock, and Goedert don't very, very clearly make up that 2nd wave. Situation is important -- and Gesiciki/Engram/Henry are in the perfect situations to produce and aren't putting up huge TE numbers.

The third wave for me is where it gets tricky.

That is my thoughts on the 2nd wave. I would probably put Andrews in that group as well instead of his own tier, but he would be at the top of that tier.

This 2021 class is a nice group of TEs too. If Kyle Pitts gets drafted in round 1 and gets a nice landing spot, he is probably going to be in that tier 2 group or at least the top of tier 3 at TE for me.

I honestly feel like projecting these TE's before they've played a down is a fool's errand. I'd rather pay more after they've shown efficiency at the NFL level. Hock and Fant look legit, but the 1st round of TE's is littered with busts dating back to Brandon Pettirgrew.

[jenkins.math]

I honestly feel like projecting these TE's before they've played a down is a fool's errand. I'd rather pay more after they've shown efficiency at the NFL level. Hock and Fant look legit, but the 1st round of TE's is littered with busts dating back to Brandon Pettirgrew.

They have to be ranked somewhere though and draft capital + landing spot is going to be a big part of it. You can't just not rank all rookies because they haven't played a down in the NFL. If that is your stance then Mitch Trubisky > Trevor Lawrence. You also can't just lump all rookies into one big "rookie tier" as if they are all equal.

If your stance is that you would rather not draft a TE at all in rookie drafts and that you prefer to just pay up for a difference maker once they have shown it in the league; then I don't have any issue with that take. But if you are looking for a TE, then how the current draft class stacks up vs what you can get now for that same price matters greatly.

[Sriracha]

I honestly feel like projecting these TE's before they've played a down is a fool's errand. I'd rather pay more after they've shown efficiency at the NFL level. Hock and Fant look legit, but the 1st round of TE's is littered with busts dating back to Brandon Pettirgrew.

They have to be ranked somewhere though and draft capital + landing spot is going to be a big part of it. You can't just not rank all rookies because they haven't played a down in the NFL. If that is your stance then Mitch Trubisky > Trevor Lawrence. You also can't just lump all rookies into one big "rookie tier" as if they are all equal.

If your stance is that you would rather not draft a TE at all in rookie drafts and that you prefer to just pay up for a difference maker once they have shown it in the league; then I don't have any issue with that take. But if you are looking for a TE, then how the current draft class stacks up vs what you can get now for that same price matters greatly.

Sure, but I refuse to put them in the same class as TE's that have already shown efficiency at the NFL level; regardless of how good of a prospect they are. Put them at the top of tier 3 with the other group of talented TE's that haven' proven it, yet.

[mild]

If your stance is that you would rather not draft a TE at all in rookie drafts and that you prefer to just pay up for a difference maker once they have shown it in the league; then I don't have any issue with that take. But if you are looking for a TE, then how the current draft class stacks up vs what you can get now for that same price matters greatly.

This is a good topic of discussion, actually - my stance is actually that I'm always looking for post-hype TE's who are in their 2nd or 3rd year, and fit the SPARQ freak billing. (Our boy Jonnu is a classic example of one)

Drafting rookie TE's is bad business... you can rank those rookie guys highly if you want, but their chances of making a meaningful impact in their first 2 years will be low. They will arguably have better buy-low points over the course of that time - let someone else sink that investment. Hock and Fant were considered two of the most elite prospects to come out of college in a while - and even now, in both of their 2nd seasons - they haven't quite lived up to the hype, nor probably the draft capital you spent to get them. At this point, you're holding out hope for their 3rd season to be "the one" that makes the true leap - and there's still no guarantee we get it for those guys. Denver is as crowded as you like and has an enigma for a QB, and Detroit are... well, Detroit.

Even Goedart, who looks like as sure a thing as we've seen in a while, has had his 3rd year breakout largely way-laid by injury and the Eagles general crappiness. As an owner, I find him difficult to start over Jonnu as of right now - and I am resigned to him being more of a "Year 4" thing now. The situation matters, and even the best talents still get stuck. You need a true perfect storm at TE to get production sometimes.

Meanwhile, Jonnu has that storm going on right now - a rushing attack that calls for multiple TE's on the field at all times, a QB that looks for him in the red zone, and a price tag that was largely free last year for anyone following the "2nd to 3rd year post hype" breakout strategy.

It doesn't always work out - Ian Thomas, Trey Burton, Moe Alie-Cox, countless others - but it is by far the most efficient way to game TE in fantasy if you're not paying up for the big boys at the top.

[Sriracha]

If your stance is that you would rather not draft a TE at all in rookie drafts and that you prefer to just pay up for a difference maker once they have shown it in the league; then I don't have any issue with that take. But if you are looking for a TE, then how the current draft class stacks up vs what you can get now for that same price matters greatly.

This is a good topic of discussion, actually - my stance is actually that I'm always looking for post-hype TE's who are in their 2nd or 3rd year, and fit the SPARQ freak billing. (Our boy Jonnu is a classic example of one)

Drafting rookie TE's is bad business... you can rank those rookie guys highly if you want, but their chances of making a meaningful impact in their first 2 years will be low. They will arguably have better buy-low points over the course of that time - let someone else sink that investment. Hock and Fant were considered two of the most elite prospects to come out of college in a while - and even now, in both of their 2nd seasons - they haven't quite lived up to the hype, nor probably the draft capital you spent to get them. At this point, you're holding out hope for their 3rd season to be "the one" that makes the true leap - and there's still no guarantee we get it for those guys. Denver is as crowded as you like and has an enigma for a QB, and Detroit are... well, Detroit.

Even Goedart, who looks like as sure a thing as we've seen in a while, has had his 3rd year breakout largely way-laid by injury and the Eagles general crappiness. As an owner, I find him difficult to start over Jonnu as of right now - and I am resigned to him being more of a "Year 4" thing now. The situation matters, and even the best talents still get stuck. You need a true perfect storm at TE to get production sometimes.

Meanwhile, Jonnu has that storm going on right now - a rushing attack that calls for multiple TE's on the field at all times, a QB that looks for him in the red zone, and a price tag that was largely free last year for anyone following the "2nd to 3rd year post hype" breakout strategy.

It doesn't always work out - Ian Thomas, Trey Burton, Moe Alie-Cox, countless others - but it is by far the most efficient way to game TE in fantasy if you're not paying up for the big boys at the top.

I've found the most efficient path to gaining TE's with staying power is jumping on year 2 TE's that had fantastic rookie seasons; completely disregard draft capital as it's much less indicative than on field performance for the TE position.

In 2018 that would've led you to Kittle, Andrews in 2019, and Noah Fant in 2020. While everyone was going gaga over Engram and his TE1 rookie season, his efficiency numbers should've told you he was being vastly overrated because of production + draft capital. This makes sense when you consider that NFL teams divvy up target distribution to maximize effectiveness, not in response to how a particular position group is productive relative to others.

Of course this only works out because people are bad at grading rookie TE seasons. It blew my mind that people weren't sold on Kittle, Andrews, or Fant after their rookie seasons just because they didn't put up massive numbers compared to TE veterans.

[Jigga94]

What would Fant or Hock cost you these days? A mid 1st? Essentially where they were going in rookie drafts...

[mild]

What would Fant or Hock cost you these days? A mid 1st? Essentially where they were going in rookie drafts...

I'd buy if that was the price. Both owners in my league won't sell for that; they're convinced they're holding the next Kittle...

[Jigga94]

What would Fant or Hock cost you these days? A mid 1st? Essentially where they were going in rookie drafts...

I'd buy if that was the price. Both owners in my league won't sell for that; they're convinced they're holding the next Kittle...

I agree, just trying to illustrate a point that it's not far off and drafting a TE early in rookie drafts doesn't pan out or gain much value most of the time.

I'd argue Hock and Fant are about as talented, they just don't receive 37 targets a game lol

[jordanzs]

What would Fant or Hock cost you these days? A mid 1st? Essentially where they were going in rookie drafts...

Last week I bought Hock for Higbee & Antonio Brown.

I'm good with that.