Jaxon Smith-Njigba: the thread

[FantasyFreak]

This thread seems to be getting rather testy, with some difference of opinions. Think I'll check back later.

[mild]

Steve Smith also thinks Skyy Moore is going to be really good, so I hope he knows a lot.

I'm gonna concede that Steve Smith might know more about WR's and their relative play speed than us internet arm-chair scouts.

It's hard to know if someone will translate to the Pro Level. Projecting Rookie WR's is hard... just ask Howie Roseman, the reigning GM of the year.

[Kurt G.O.A.T.]

Let's not make out like Justin Jefferson was some elite wr everyone had to draft. He was going at the end of the 1st rounds. It seems jj wasn't good enough to be jj when he came out.

[mild]

And you’re supposing as a rookie in SEA’s O that JSN is going to match production with Kupp’s and ARSB’s vet level?

Geno threw for nearly an identical statline to Goff last year... around 150 yards less on 15 less attempts. It's actually not that insane to suggest the offense might have enough pie to go around.

Incidentally, that was Goff's best year since his Rams heydays, throwing to... you guessed it... Cooper Kupp.

You've set the line at 8-900 yards on 80 catches. If we suppose he's really good as a Slot right away, then yeah, that would be the kind of Rookie year statline that would confirm our priors of who JSN might be going forward ie. FF's "perennial WR2" projection.

I'm just saying... if this guy is even better than expected, and seizes more target share and/or starts muscling in on the Lockett succession plan early... don't be surprised if we've dramatically sold him short.

You don't just have 1600 yards next to two Stud WR's by accident.

[wickerkat1212]

I love JSN. He is my favorite WR in this class, and by a bit of a margin. Bijan and JSN are the two guys I really think are "blue chip" and Bijan may be elite. I only got one share of JSN since I moved up to 1.01 in several leagues. I took him at 1.06 in my Superflex, after taking Bijan at 1.01. I passed on Gibbs (Addison went at 1.05) to take JSN there. No, he's not Chase or Jefferson, I'd put him closer to Lamb/Olave as far as potential, but yes, I think he can be a low WR1 or high WR2. In 1 ppr I think he can be a pretty amazing slot guy. I'm drinking the Kool-Aid, all of it. All-in. Been high on him for a year or more now. (And yes, I had him rated at 1.02 for my rankings.)

I only see 1 blue chip prospect, and that's the RB that went top 10. Some may argue Gibbs is blue chip, a RB going that high there's an argument, but he's more of a role player than a do it all guy. No WR went until 20. There is no blue chip prospect at WR in this class.

Now that doesn't mean they can't become a blue chip player. JJ wasn't a blue chip prospect, but the metrics were more on his side. Cooper Kupp was drafted in round 3, AB well after that. It's possible players can become blue chip players, even though they weren't blue chip prospects. IF you're right, you're ahead of the curve. It's within the range of outcomes, though I don't think it's as likely he becomes a true difference maker in FF. I think he can be a productive part of a FF roster, though.

I think we tend to put rose coloured glasses on at this time of year, but hey, if JSN is your guy, good for you. He's my WR1, but I don't think this class is that strong, at it lacks any elite prospects IMO. Not every class will have Chase, or JJ. Doesn't mean the players won't be good, though.

LOL I hear you. I think some were scared of his injury. IDK. I didn't think the QBs were strong. Bijan elite, maybe Gibbs is special, but the rest all looked like "guys" or at least guys I'll take a flier on later. SO many WRs that feel the same. JSN has been on my radar for a long time. I think taking him at 1.06 is great value and I was thrilled there. I don't think he's JJ/Chase, no.

But if we think a WR1 is in the top 12, then I think he can creep in there. Most likely he's a strong WR2, with upside. But man, so many reasons I think he can be really good. We'll see. Do I want him as my top WR, my best WR, my top WR1? No. There are risks here. I was so in on JJ I traded Waller in his prime straight up. I loved Chase and moved up to take him at 1.04 in my 1 QB league.

I have Olave/Lamb/JSN pretty close, but we'll see. I may be overly optimistic LOL.

[FantasyFreak]

I love JSN. He is my favorite WR in this class, and by a bit of a margin. Bijan and JSN are the two guys I really think are "blue chip" and Bijan may be elite. I only got one share of JSN since I moved up to 1.01 in several leagues. I took him at 1.06 in my Superflex, after taking Bijan at 1.01. I passed on Gibbs (Addison went at 1.05) to take JSN there. No, he's not Chase or Jefferson, I'd put him closer to Lamb/Olave as far as potential, but yes, I think he can be a low WR1 or high WR2. In 1 ppr I think he can be a pretty amazing slot guy. I'm drinking the Kool-Aid, all of it. All-in. Been high on him for a year or more now. (And yes, I had him rated at 1.02 for my rankings.)

I only see 1 blue chip prospect, and that's the RB that went top 10. Some may argue Gibbs is blue chip, a RB going that high there's an argument, but he's more of a role player than a do it all guy. No WR went until 20. There is no blue chip prospect at WR in this class.

Now that doesn't mean they can't become a blue chip player. JJ wasn't a blue chip prospect, but the metrics were more on his side. Cooper Kupp was drafted in round 3, AB well after that. It's possible players can become blue chip players, even though they weren't blue chip prospects. IF you're right, you're ahead of the curve. It's within the range of outcomes, though I don't think it's as likely he becomes a true difference maker in FF. I think he can be a productive part of a FF roster, though.

I think we tend to put rose coloured glasses on at this time of year, but hey, if JSN is your guy, good for you. He's my WR1, but I don't think this class is that strong, at it lacks any elite prospects IMO. Not every class will have Chase, or JJ. Doesn't mean the players won't be good, though.

LOL I hear you. I think some were scared of his injury. IDK. I didn't think the QBs were strong. Bijan elite, maybe Gibbs is special, but the rest all looked like "guys" or at least guys I'll take a flier on later. SO many WRs that feel the same. JSN has been on my radar for a long time. I think taking him at 1.06 is great value and I was thrilled there. I don't think he's JJ/Chase, no.

But if we think a WR1 is in the top 12, then I think he can creep in there. Most likely he's a strong WR2, with upside. But man, so many reasons I think he can be really good. We'll see. Do I want him as my top WR, my best WR, my top WR1? No. There are risks here. I was so in on JJ I traded Waller in his prime straight up. I loved Chase and moved up to take him at 1.04 in my 1 QB league.

I have Olave/Lamb/JSN pretty close, but we'll see. I may be overly optimistic LOL.

I don't think you're unreasonable or overly optimistic saying he can "creep into" the top 12 at some point. If you said he's going to be a perennial WR1 starting this year, then yeah, maybe at that point.

To the bold. Going to bring this one back, to lighten the vibe a bit in this thread. A classic.

https://youtu.be/cDBO5h06f6M?t=148

[wickerkat1212]

I only see 1 blue chip prospect, and that's the RB that went top 10. Some may argue Gibbs is blue chip, a RB going that high there's an argument, but he's more of a role player than a do it all guy. No WR went until 20. There is no blue chip prospect at WR in this class.

Now that doesn't mean they can't become a blue chip player. JJ wasn't a blue chip prospect, but the metrics were more on his side. Cooper Kupp was drafted in round 3, AB well after that. It's possible players can become blue chip players, even though they weren't blue chip prospects. IF you're right, you're ahead of the curve. It's within the range of outcomes, though I don't think it's as likely he becomes a true difference maker in FF. I think he can be a productive part of a FF roster, though.

I think we tend to put rose coloured glasses on at this time of year, but hey, if JSN is your guy, good for you. He's my WR1, but I don't think this class is that strong, at it lacks any elite prospects IMO. Not every class will have Chase, or JJ. Doesn't mean the players won't be good, though.

LOL I hear you. I think some were scared of his injury. IDK. I didn't think the QBs were strong. Bijan elite, maybe Gibbs is special, but the rest all looked like "guys" or at least guys I'll take a flier on later. SO many WRs that feel the same. JSN has been on my radar for a long time. I think taking him at 1.06 is great value and I was thrilled there. I don't think he's JJ/Chase, no.

But if we think a WR1 is in the top 12, then I think he can creep in there. Most likely he's a strong WR2, with upside. But man, so many reasons I think he can be really good. We'll see. Do I want him as my top WR, my best WR, my top WR1? No. There are risks here. I was so in on JJ I traded Waller in his prime straight up. I loved Chase and moved up to take him at 1.04 in my 1 QB league.

I have Olave/Lamb/JSN pretty close, but we'll see. I may be overly optimistic LOL.

I don't think you're unreasonable or overly optimistic saying he can "creep into" the top 12 at some point. If you said he's going to be a perennial WR1 starting this year, then yeah, maybe at that point.

To the bold. Going to bring this one back, to lighten the vibe a bit in this thread. A classic.

https://youtu.be/cDBO5h06f6M?t=148

LOL no it's all good. I don't get upset about this stuff, it's ALL speculation.

[Sriracha]

And you’re supposing as a rookie in SEA’s O that JSN is going to match production with Kupp’s and ARSB’s vet level?

Geno threw for nearly an identical statline to Goff last year... around 150 yards less on 15 less attempts. It's actually not that insane to suggest the offense might have enough pie to go around.

Incidentally, that was Goff's best year since his Rams heydays, throwing to... you guessed it... Cooper Kupp.

You've set the line at 8-900 yards on 80 catches. If we suppose he's really good as a Slot right away, then yeah, that would be the kind of Rookie year statline that would confirm our priors of who JSN might be going forward ie. FF's "perennial WR2" projection.

I'm just saying... if this guy is even better than expected, and seizes more target share and/or starts muscling in on the Lockett succession plan early... don't be surprised if we've dramatically sold him short.

You don't just have 1600 yards next to two Stud WR's by accident.

To be fair, he got 300 of those during the bowl game that they both sat out.. he was incredibly impressive none-the-less and if anything his success without those two monsters sharing the field makes you wonder what his numbers could've been without them.

Geno's play last year has me cautiously optimistic about this landing spot; Especially since he did that despite subpar pass blocking. If he continues that level of play going forward there is going to be a lot of yards to go around for JSN as soon as this year, However, he might need to wait for Lockett's play to fall off before he truly breaks into the elite tier of fantasy producers even if he is an all-star talent.

He comps very well to Cee Dee Lamb and I'd expect him to be utilized in a similar way in the NFL with a similar career trajectory.

[Cameron Giles]

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 4.53 - 40YD, 96P - 3Cone, 97P - 20YS, 125" - Broad Jump, 83% slot rate in college

Cooper Kupp: 4.62 - 40YD, 83P - 3Cone, 84P - 20YS, 116' - Broad Jump, 84% slot rate in college

Amon-Ra: 4.61 - 40YD, 63P - 3Cone, 43P - 20YS, 127' - Broad Jump, 69% slot rate in college

Last season:

Cooper Kupp: 56.6 % snaps played outside
Amon-Ra: 54% snaps played outside

I still don't buy this "slot only" narrative. JSN has elite agility and quickness, tested better than Amon-Ra and Kupp, and received better draft capital. What is it about JSN that makes him slot only, but two players with worse agility and quickness have been able to play effectively on the outside in the NFL?

He gets good releases, is a demon on short and intermediate levels, and has the agility and quickness off the line and at the top of his routes to make DBs look incompetent. He is the definition of a player whose play speed is significantly faster than his testing speed. He wins vertically and deep despite not having elite straight line speed. If you're not a blazer, you have to make up for it in other ways and he is elite in those ways.

It's clear that some people look at the slot usage as an attempt to hide limitations rather than Ohio State just operating with a luxury at WR. He was a nightmare to cover there, so why change it? I don't think he went to the best situation for immediate high level contributions, but long-term I think he has 100-reception upside and will be a WR1 at some point.

[ericanadian]

Let's not make out like Justin Jefferson was some elite wr everyone had to draft. He was going at the end of the 1st rounds. It seems jj wasn't good enough to be jj when he came out.

Well, JJ did have his breakout as an outside receiver. No one noticed because the offense as a whole was garbage. He was also pushed down in the draft because there were four very highly regarded RBs, Ceedee Lamb and a fifth RB with great metrics. For me, JJ was the fifth option, because I thought (and think) that Akers had garbage vision. I’m sure some people bumped other guys ahead of him for whatever reason, so sure he could’ve slid in some drafts. I don’t think the general consensus had him much lower than six though.

[Jigga94]

Let's not make out like Justin Jefferson was some elite wr everyone had to draft. He was going at the end of the 1st rounds. It seems jj wasn't good enough to be jj when he came out.

Well, JJ did have his breakout as an outside receiver. No one noticed because the offense as a whole was garbage. He was also pushed down in the draft because there were four very highly regarded RBs, Ceedee Lamb and a fifth RB with great metrics. For me, JJ was the fifth option, because I thought (and think) that Akers had garbage vision. I’m sure some people bumped other guys ahead of him for whatever reason, so sure he could’ve slid in some drafts. I don’t think the general consensus had him much lower than six though.

Not sure where he fit in most leagues with RB, but I distinctly remember the consensus being Jeudy/Lamb then Jefferson/Ruggs/Reagor.

[ericanadian]

Let's not make out like Justin Jefferson was some elite wr everyone had to draft. He was going at the end of the 1st rounds. It seems jj wasn't good enough to be jj when he came out.

Well, JJ did have his breakout as an outside receiver. No one noticed because the offense as a whole was garbage. He was also pushed down in the draft because there were four very highly regarded RBs, Ceedee Lamb and a fifth RB with great metrics. For me, JJ was the fifth option, because I thought (and think) that Akers had garbage vision. I’m sure some people bumped other guys ahead of him for whatever reason, so sure he could’ve slid in some drafts. I don’t think the general consensus had him much lower than six though.

Not sure where he fit in most leagues with RB, but I distinctly remember the consensus being Jeudy/Lamb then Jefferson/Ruggs/Reagor.

That’s true. Jeudy was ahead of him as well, so probably seventh. Ruggs dropped pretty much everywhere that I saw. Some might have slotted Reagor ahead of him, but man that was a bad decision.

[JoeJoe88]

Let's not make out like Justin Jefferson was some elite wr everyone had to draft. He was going at the end of the 1st rounds. It seems jj wasn't good enough to be jj when he came out.

Everyone always forgets this. I think he went like 1.08 in our rookie draft.

[Bronco Billy]

This thread seems to be getting rather testy, with some difference of opinions. Think I'll check back later.

I’m guilty of contributing to that. I can have good discussions with those who hold differing opinions with respectful exchanges, but there are a few who think that anyone who disagrees with them are committing a personal attack and so they have to respond in kind. Then there is adding the sinking to hyperbole to escalate the attack as though it makes their position stronger.

I made a response to it that I shouldn’t have. I regret that I sunk to that level and just should have ignored it like I did additional posts afterward.

My apologies. I’ll try to do better.

[joeya2001]

Do you think any of his friends ever said “Njigba Please”!