You Should Be Up on Josh Downs

[Cameron Giles]

Really great downs breakdown! I'm a fan now.

QJ with the worst contested catch %?

Johnston is super talented, but doesn't play to his size consistently to this point.

[Bronco Billy]

Have you looked at any other WRs in depth like this? I really want to land two of Downs, Flowers, and Addison at 7&9. If I'm staring at two of them at 1.07 I have no idea who I would take first of those three, and they all seem oddly similar to me

Addison ought to be gone by then. If he’s there at 1.07 pounce on him. Between Flowers and Downs I’d go Downs. I used to be very high on Flowers, but watching more tape on him I’m seeing a very real issue that he has with press coverage that is severe enough that it may preclude him from playing on the outside in the NFL. It is something that could realistically put a low ceiling on him.

[Straycatz2]

Definitely getting slept on.

Screenshot_20230408_123353_Twitter.jpg (220.01 KiB) Viewed 1120 times

[Jrblaha]

Addison and Downs for me, though I'd expect that you will end up with Downs and Flowers, because Addison should go higher in 1QB.

I really like Flowers though. I thought about writing on him for a second, but I had already collected so much information on Downs during the season and he's just been a great watch for me. Flowers has some similar skills as Downs, but has more outside experience in college, which I think will get him selected higher in the draft.

Love your work, fantastic post! Who would you take with flowers and downs both available?

I have these two as an "A and B" right now, so it's tough.

Downs: Better route runner, better athlete, better production profile, better at catch point

Flowers: More experience on the outside, will have higher draft pedigree, better after the catch in 2022, higher upside

I might lean Flowers because of pedigree, but it's a coin flip.

Cool, this makes me feel great about downs, thanks again for the detailed write up

[Pullo Vision]

A pod I heard last week compared Downs' usage at North Carolina to Stevie Johnson. For those who don't remember, Johnson was an "unorthodox" route runner that some described as not so much running a defined route but more like backyard freelancing. That worked well when Fitzmagic was scrambling around in a Chan Gailey offense, but when the more conservative Doug Marrone took over as HC, Fitzpatrick was quickly gone. Johnson's production dropped Marrone's first year (yardage cut nearly in half) and he never recovered following a trade to San Fran.

Unless someone has intimate knowledge of the Carolina offense and route concepts, I imagine we could test if Downs was freelancing to get open by examining their QB's time to throw.

[Cameron Giles]

A pod I heard last week compared Downs' usage at North Carolina to Stevie Johnson. For those who don't remember, Johnson was an "unorthodox" route runner that some described as not so much running a defined route but more like backyard freelancing. That worked well when Fitzmagic was scrambling around in a Chan Gailey offense, but when the more conservative Doug Marrone took over as HC, Fitzpatrick was quickly gone. Johnson's production dropped Marrone's first year (yardage cut nearly in half) and he never recovered following a trade to San Fran.

Unless someone has intimate knowledge of the Carolina offense and route concepts, I imagine we could test if Downs was freelancing to get open by examining their QB's time to throw.

Phil Longo was UNC's OC since 2019. Recently left for Wisconsin. He's an Air Raid disciple.

https://theathletic.com/3994293/2022/12 ... h-briscoe/

[Pullo Vision]

A pod I heard last week compared Downs' usage at North Carolina to Stevie Johnson. For those who don't remember, Johnson was an "unorthodox" route runner that some described as not so much running a defined route but more like backyard freelancing. That worked well when Fitzmagic was scrambling around in a Chan Gailey offense, but when the more conservative Doug Marrone took over as HC, Fitzpatrick was quickly gone. Johnson's production dropped Marrone's first year (yardage cut nearly in half) and he never recovered following a trade to San Fran.

Unless someone has intimate knowledge of the Carolina offense and route concepts, I imagine we could test if Downs was freelancing to get open by examining their QB's time to throw.

Phil Longo was UNC's OC since 2019. Recently left for Wisconsin. He's an Air Raid disciple.

https://theathletic.com/3994293/2022/12 ... h-briscoe/

Thanks, I've got some relevant links/quotes I'll share, but off topic for now is how his version of the Air Raid handles the QB. The scheme takes responsibilities off the QB's shoulders and gives some to the Center. Specifically, the QB doesn't need to identify the Mike linebacker, read coverage structures, check protection or even communicate with the offensive line.

This is a hell of a quote from Longo- "QBs never ‘read’ defenders. I just want him to execute the play. Our quarterback gets the signal, IDs the coverage and takes the snap. We delegate all the QB’s duties out to everybody else."

I wonder if this played a factor in Howell getting drafted in the 5th despite breaking school records, and wonder how that will impact Maye. He's seen as one of the top 2 QB prospects next year.

[mild]

I wonder if that played a factor in Howell getting drafted in the 5th despite breaking school records, and wonder how that will impact Ewers. He's seen as one of the top 2 QB prospects next year.

This is a hell of a quote from Longo- "QBs never ‘read’ defenders. I just want him to execute the play. Our quarterback gets the signal, IDs the coverage and takes the snap. We delegate all the QB’s duties out to everybody else."

Really interesting discussion here, I'm loving it.

I will just chime in and say that Ewers - at this early point - is currently viewed as the presumptive QB3 behind Caleb Williams and Drake Maye.

And for what it's worth, the QB School episode of Ewers absolutely destroying Oklahoma had me excited, before I really had clocked any of the concerns a lot of analysts have on him.

[Pullo Vision]

I wonder if that played a factor in Howell getting drafted in the 5th despite breaking school records, and wonder how that will impact Ewers. He's seen as one of the top 2 QB prospects next year.

This is a hell of a quote from Longo- "QBs never ‘read’ defenders. I just want him to execute the play. Our quarterback gets the signal, IDs the coverage and takes the snap. We delegate all the QB’s duties out to everybody else."

Really interesting discussion here, I'm loving it.

I will just chime in and say that Ewers - at this early point - is currently viewed as the presumptive QB3 behind Caleb Williams and Drake Maye.

And for what it's worth, the QB School episode of Ewers absolutely destroying Oklahoma had me excited, before I really had clocked any of the concerns a lot of analysts have on him.

Ugh, got my damn QB names crossed. I'm trying to position myself to get a few of them next year and I can't even remember who's where.

[Cherokee]

Nice! I see the name Tyler Scott a good amount of times right around Downs' name. The discount version it seems

[-THE DUDE-]

Excellent write up and is on point with my feelings on him recently…after doing more research he’s moved up to my WR 3 this year behind JSN and Addison.

[Cameron Giles]

Well, looks Downs should've been my deep sleeper

Very surprised he went third round, while Reed and Mims both went 2nd, though I'm guessing it's because of positon versatility and size. But, I love the landing spot with the Colts and it's creating even more of an opportunity to draft Downs at a value. Downs can jump right into the slot from Day 1.

On the Mims/Reed tips: I really, really think you should be looking at these two players strongly. Especially Mims. The Reed pick may be floating under the radar right now.

[mild]

Well, looks Downs should've been my deep sleeper

Very surprised he went third round, while Reed and Mims both went 2nd, though I'm guessing it's because of positon versatility and size. But, I love the landing spot with the Colts and it's creating even more of an opportunity to draft Downs at a value. Downs can jump right into the slot from Day 1.

On the Mims/Reed tips: I really, really think you should be looking at these two players strongly. Especially Mims. The Reed pick may be floating under the radar right now.

Can you break down why you love the landing spot with the Colts so much?

The short to intermediate timing routes that are his calling card are the exact ones we're unsure if AR is ever going to become "NFL proficient" at. His best traits currently are his rushing and his deep ball.

Agreed on loving Mims. I'll look more seriously at Reed this week.

[Jigga94]

Well, looks Downs should've been my deep sleeper

Very surprised he went third round, while Reed and Mims both went 2nd, though I'm guessing it's because of positon versatility and size. But, I love the landing spot with the Colts and it's creating even more of an opportunity to draft Downs at a value. Downs can jump right into the slot from Day 1.

On the Mims/Reed tips: I really, really think you should be looking at these two players strongly. Especially Mims. The Reed pick may be floating under the radar right now.

Haha can't win em all. Still though, if you end up being right again, most people will get Downs as a steal.

Mims was my WR5 pre draft. I only moved Mingo ahead of him and I'm not sure I even agree with that looking back.

I like Reed as well and thought he would go 3rd/4th. GB does need WR help. I don't think Doubs is all that great. Reed could be a solid contributor in special teams as well as the slot this year

[murphysxm]

Well, looks Downs should've been my deep sleeper

Very surprised he went third round, while Reed and Mims both went 2nd, though I'm guessing it's because of positon versatility and size. But, I love the landing spot with the Colts and it's creating even more of an opportunity to draft Downs at a value. Downs can jump right into the slot from Day 1.

On the Mims/Reed tips: I really, really think you should be looking at these two players strongly. Especially Mims. The Reed pick may be floating under the radar right now.

Haha can't win em all. Still though, if you end up being right again, most people will get Downs as a steal.

Mims was my WR5 pre draft. I only moved Mingo ahead of him and I'm not sure I even agree with that looking back.

I like Reed as well and thought he would go 3rd/4th. GB does need WR help. I don't think Doubs is all that great. Reed could be a solid contributor in special teams as well as the slot this year

I agree on this seeming like a rough fit, unless until/if AR gets his mechanics cleaned up