Treylon Burks thread

[Ice]

The Titans run the ball by design. I get it is fashionable to blame the QB but the Titans actually had the 7th highest completion percentage in the NFL last year. While their yards per attempt wasn't great it was higher than the Bills as an example.

Burks is going to be called on to block a lot but he should get plenty of targets as well. I would place the over/under on his targets as a rookie at 100. ( Not Ideal but he is a rookie )

He hasn't even played a game that counts and he does have to learn the offense. There are some concerns with the slow start but his style of play should be a solid fit for the Titans.

People may be jumping the shark a bit on him at this point. It sounds cool I guess but worrying at this point will just give you gray hairs needlessly.

After week 9 would be a good time to worry or celebrate.

[SteveMaddensShoes]

The Titans run the ball by design. I get it is fashionable to blame the QB but the Titans actually had the 7th highest completion percentage in the NFL last year. While their yards per attempt wasn't great it was higher than the Bills as an example.

Burks is going to be called on to block a lot but he should get plenty of targets as well. I would place the over/under on his targets as a rookie at 100. ( Not Ideal but he is a rookie )

He hasn't even played a game that counts and he does have to learn the offense. There are some concerns with the slow start but his style of play should be a solid fit for the Titans.

People may be jumping the shark a bit on him at this point. It sounds cool I guess but worrying at this point will just give you gray hairs needlessly.

After week 9 would be a good time to worry or celebrate.

After 9 weeks though that bust list was nearly worthless maybe you could get a 2nd. But probably not a 23 2nd.

I don’t disagree that waiting is normally the best process. I’m not selling Watson or Garret Wilson just because it’s a little quiet in hype town. But Burks is actually in a worse place. It’s not just quiet, it’s blaring how bad it’s going. I think process in this situation would be to bail, recoup the 1st if possible, keep your resources(draft capital) and move on.

Again, I could be wrong, I just think it’s pretty grim and I’d rather play the odds that indicate he will bust, imo. It’s subjective obviously. Saying there is signal and not noise, but it’s my opinion that it’s signal.

I’m still willing to buy at a discount(I always I’m open to that) but not paying top 4 to 5 rookie prices. I’d take him after the top 2 rbs, Drake, Wilson, Olave, Jamo, Pickens, Moore, Cook, and Watson. Maybe Dotson. So like, 1.12 this year. I’d buy for that. Which is like mid 2nd next year. I’m fine with that price. But I doubt anyone is selling for that.

[mild]

He hasn't even played a game that counts and he does have to learn the offense. There are some concerns with the slow start but his style of play should be a solid fit for the Titans.

People may be jumping the shark a bit on him at this point. It sounds cool I guess but worrying at this point will just give you gray hairs needlessly.

After week 9 would be a good time to worry or celebrate.

Nah, we've got nothing better to do: lets wildly panic now.

He's being beat out for a role (and soundly) by a Round 5 rookie who was completely off our fantasy radar prior. That's "not great, Bob".

[Pullo Vision]

He hasn't even played a game that counts and he does have to learn the offense. There are some concerns with the slow start but his style of play should be a solid fit for the Titans.

People may be jumping the shark a bit on him at this point. It sounds cool I guess but worrying at this point will just give you gray hairs needlessly.

After week 9 would be a good time to worry or celebrate.

Nah, we've got nothing better to do: lets wildly panic now.

He's being beat out for a role (and soundly) by a Round 5 rookie who was completely off our fantasy radar prior. That's "not great, Bob".

Prior to what? Kyle Phillips was on my watch list pre NFL draft. The landing spot (and lack of depth added through FA and the draft) locked him onto my deep draft target list.

Burks isn't seeing a value drop due to Phillips, but the offseason differences (performance and chatter) has been stark.

[mild]

Prior to what? Kyle Phillips was on my watch list pre NFL draft. The landing spot (and lack of depth added through FA and the draft) locked him onto my deep draft target list.

Burks isn't seeing a value drop due to Phillips, but the offseason differences (performance and chatter) has been stark.

Off my radar then, kudos to your advanced warning system that picks up stealth fighters and whatnot that you're rocking over there.

The only parallel I'm drawing is that there is a major target vacation in TEN right now that the Titans would LOVE someone to step up and fill with AJB gone. From the start of the offseason the rap on Burks was that he "needs work to become the outside receiver that his frame suggests he could one day be, but should be useable in the slot right off the bat".

Well, that Slot role is most certainly up for grabs, and he's currently not even sniffing it because a 5th Round Rookie is playing better.

Being outplayed at the same position for a role of significant need by someone drafted 4 rounds after you: That's what's "not great Bob".

[guernseygambler]

Phillips isn't beating out Burks for the slot role, Burks wasn't going to be a slot guy. Burks is fighting for a spot in the starting line-up with NWI on the outside.

[Farley]

The Titans run the ball by design. I get it is fashionable to blame the QB but the Titans actually had the 7th highest completion percentage in the NFL last year. While their yards per attempt wasn't great it was higher than the Bills as an example.

Burks is going to be called on to block a lot but he should get plenty of targets as well. I would place the over/under on his targets as a rookie at 100. ( Not Ideal but he is a rookie )

He hasn't even played a game that counts and he does have to learn the offense. There are some concerns with the slow start but his style of play should be a solid fit for the Titans.

People may be jumping the shark a bit on him at this point. It sounds cool I guess but worrying at this point will just give you gray hairs needlessly.

After week 9 would be a good time to worry or celebrate.

After 9 weeks though that bust list was nearly worthless maybe you could get a 2nd. But probably not a 23 2nd.

I don’t disagree that waiting is normally the best process. I’m not selling Watson or Garret Wilson just because it’s a little quiet in hype town. But Burks is actually in a worse place. It’s not just quiet, it’s blaring how bad it’s going. I think process in this situation would be to bail, recoup the 1st if possible, keep your resources(draft capital) and move on.

Again, I could be wrong, I just think it’s pretty grim and I’d rather play the odds that indicate he will bust, imo. It’s subjective obviously. Saying there is signal and not noise, but it’s my opinion that it’s signal.

I’m still willing to buy at a discount(I always I’m open to that) but not paying top 4 to 5 rookie prices. I’d take him after the top 2 rbs, Drake, Wilson, Olave, Jamo, Pickens, Moore, Cook, and Watson. Maybe Dotson. So like, 1.12 this year. I’d buy for that. Which is like mid 2nd next year. I’m fine with that price. But I doubt anyone is selling for that.

A big thumbs up to the bolded part. Everyone wants to wait and see to gain more information on players. But, your leaguemates are acquiring the same information and drawing similar conclusions. If it takes you 9 weeks (or a year or two) to be sure a player will bust, the rest of your league will also feel the same and the player will be worthless.

I was high on Burks. Had him 1.02 predraft and 1.03 after. My drafts are a week after the NFL's. I ended up with 6 shares of Burks.

I've been able to move 5 of them since the bad news started flowing in. Here they are in chronological order. First trade was shortly after Rookie Camp. Last one was yesterday. All FFPC leagues.

Burks
for
Etienne

Burks
2023 3rd
for
Devonta Smith
2023 2nd

Burks
Christian Watson
for
Godwin
Knox
Aiyuk

Burks
James Cook
for
Dobbins
Rhamondre

Burks
for
Christian Watson
Early 2023 2nd

I feel like I've reset his value in most of these moves. Anything can happen. He may turn out to be the stud most thought he'd be early in the process. My guess is you'd be hard-pressed to get a 2nd for him early in the season unless he turns things around, though. At that point, you're better off holding and using him as a lottery ticket.

[Ice]

My point 9 weeks gives an owner at least a realistic timeline line to see improvement. Thinking any of you really know he will be a bust or not after a few weeks of camp in dynasty are straight up fools. I find it funny how so many are devoid of the concept that players entering the league are pretty raw with very few exceptions and it takes time to learn how the adults play the game and get better with repetition, coaching, diet, and study not to mention getting on the same page as a the QB.

He could bust no doubt but panic selling is stupid. If you drafted him high and have cold feet that is one thing provided you can get equal or better value but it shows an incredible lack of fortitude to rate a player highly then run away at the first sign of a bad few days at camp.

BTW, there is nothing wrong with the trades you made as you got in kind value in return but as of today if you somehow think you fleeced anyone that is 100% conjecture at this point.

Edit to add; I do not own this player in any league. I was busy going after players Olave, Watson, and Cook but I do think Burks has the skill set and body type to be an effective NFL WR. He has a very good size to speed ratio and a lot of power. He already has the ability to change gears in routes and the suddenness to beat press and break off routes when needed.

He is going to require a bit of patience but it is way to early IMO too call him a bust.

[Farley]

My point 9 weeks gives an owner at least a realistic timeline line to see improvement. Thinking any of you really know he will be a bust or not after a few weeks of camp in dynasty are straight up fools. I find it funny how so many are devoid of the concept that players entering the league are pretty raw with very few exceptions and it takes time to learn how the adults play the game and get better with repetition, coaching, diet, and study not to mention getting on the same page as a the QB.

He could bust no doubt but panic selling is stupid. If you drafted him high and have cold feet that is one thing provided you can get equal or better value but it shows an incredible lack of fortitude to rate a player highly then run away at the first sign of a bad few days at camp.

BTW, there is nothing wrong with the trades you made as you got in kind value in return but as of today if you somehow think you fleeced anyone that is 100% conjecture at this point.

Didn't say I fleeced anyone. Said I feel I came close to resetting the value of the 1.03-1.05 pick I used to get him. A value I would not be able to get going forward (unless, of course, he turns things around...which is entirely possible).

Fantasy football is conjecture. That's pretty much all it is.

I don't know if he will bust. I felt there was very little chance of him busting when I took him so high because of how I felt about him predraft and all the vacated targets in Tennessee. It's not been a few bad days. It's been an entire offseason. In fact, I can't remember the last time a rookie has had such a bad offseason. He's chances of busting have definitely increased.

IMO, it's bad process not to use relevant information to readjust your valuations.

[Ice]

My point 9 weeks gives an owner at least a realistic timeline line to see improvement. Thinking any of you really know he will be a bust or not after a few weeks of camp in dynasty are straight up fools. I find it funny how so many are devoid of the concept that players entering the league are pretty raw with very few exceptions and it takes time to learn how the adults play the game and get better with repetition, coaching, diet, and study not to mention getting on the same page as a the QB.

He could bust no doubt but panic selling is stupid. If you drafted him high and have cold feet that is one thing provided you can get equal or better value but it shows an incredible lack of fortitude to rate a player highly then run away at the first sign of a bad few days at camp.

BTW, there is nothing wrong with the trades you made as you got in kind value in return but as of today if you somehow think you fleeced anyone that is 100% conjecture at this point.

Didn't say I fleeced anyone. Said I feel I came close to resetting the value of the 1.03-1.05 pick I used to get him. A value I would not be able to get going forward (unless, of course, he turns things around...which is entirely possible).

Fantasy football is conjecture. That's pretty much all it is.

I don't know if he will bust. I felt there was very little chance of him busting when I took him so high because of how I felt about him predraft and all the vacated targets in Tennessee. It's not been a few bad days. It's been an entire offseason. In fact, I can't remember the last time a rookie has had such a bad offseason. He's chances of busting have definitely increased.

IMO, it's bad process not to use relevant information to readjust your valuations.

I said IF.

You obviously think you blew the pick based on your news sources so you are resetting your value on the player. There is nothing wrong with that.

Where I would disagree is perhaps believing everything you read on twitter or jumping a bit too fast to conclusions but I get that is common.

The Coach was impressed with him last game. He didn't get the ball but that is not indication of how he actually played in a preseason game. Coaches are looking at very specific things in preseason. If he played well without the ball going his way I would actually view that as a positive.

Time will tell and I get moss won't grow under your feet!

[SteveMaddensShoes]

My point 9 weeks gives an owner at least a realistic timeline line to see improvement. Thinking any of you really know he will be a bust or not after a few weeks of camp in dynasty are straight up fools. I find it funny how so many are devoid of the concept that players entering the league are pretty raw with very few exceptions and it takes time to learn how the adults play the game and get better with repetition, coaching, diet, and study not to mention getting on the same page as a the QB.

He could bust no doubt but panic selling is stupid. If you drafted him high and have cold feet that is one thing provided you can get equal or better value but it shows an incredible lack of fortitude to rate a player highly then run away at the first sign of a bad few days at camp.

BTW, there is nothing wrong with the trades you made as you got in kind value in return but as of today if you somehow think you fleeced anyone that is 100% conjecture at this point.

Didn't say I fleeced anyone. Said I feel I came close to resetting the value of the 1.03-1.05 pick I used to get him. A value I would not be able to get going forward (unless, of course, he turns things around...which is entirely possible).

Fantasy football is conjecture. That's pretty much all it is.

I don't know if he will bust. I felt there was very little chance of him busting when I took him so high because of how I felt about him predraft and all the vacated targets in Tennessee. It's not been a few bad days. It's been an entire offseason. In fact, I can't remember the last time a rookie has had such a bad offseason. He's chances of busting have definitely increased.

IMO, it's bad process not to use relevant information to readjust your valuations.

Exactly this.

No one is claiming to know anything for sure. But a fool is one who won’t take in new information and is stubbornly stuck to their opinion.

An example would be poker. You may love your pair of KK but when an ace flops and everyone else starts betting and raising do you hold to the river because you would be a fool to lay down a hand you were certain about earlier?

Ice, I learn a lot reading your analysis on wrs but you love to resort to name calling if someone doesn’t agree with you

I am not claiming Burks will for sure bust. I’m using new information to mitigate risk. Before my draft in July I had said I was already moving him to the 1.07. At this point I’m moving him down further. Why would I stick to my original valuation when new information is coming in?

[Farley]

My point 9 weeks gives an owner at least a realistic timeline line to see improvement. Thinking any of you really know he will be a bust or not after a few weeks of camp in dynasty are straight up fools. I find it funny how so many are devoid of the concept that players entering the league are pretty raw with very few exceptions and it takes time to learn how the adults play the game and get better with repetition, coaching, diet, and study not to mention getting on the same page as a the QB.

He could bust no doubt but panic selling is stupid. If you drafted him high and have cold feet that is one thing provided you can get equal or better value but it shows an incredible lack of fortitude to rate a player highly then run away at the first sign of a bad few days at camp.

BTW, there is nothing wrong with the trades you made as you got in kind value in return but as of today if you somehow think you fleeced anyone that is 100% conjecture at this point.

Didn't say I fleeced anyone. Said I feel I came close to resetting the value of the 1.03-1.05 pick I used to get him. A value I would not be able to get going forward (unless, of course, he turns things around...which is entirely possible).

Fantasy football is conjecture. That's pretty much all it is.

I don't know if he will bust. I felt there was very little chance of him busting when I took him so high because of how I felt about him predraft and all the vacated targets in Tennessee. It's not been a few bad days. It's been an entire offseason. In fact, I can't remember the last time a rookie has had such a bad offseason. He's chances of busting have definitely increased.

IMO, it's bad process not to use relevant information to readjust your valuations.

Exactly this.

No one is claiming to know anything for sure. But a fool is one who won’t take in new information and is stubbornly stuck to their opinion.

An example would be poker. You may love your pair of KK but when an ace flops and everyone else starts betting and raising do you hold to the river because you would be a fool to lay down a hand you were certain about earlier?

Ice, I learn a lot reading your analysis on wrs but you love to resort to name calling if someone doesn’t agree with you

I am not claiming Burks will for sure bust. I’m using new information to mitigate risk. Before my draft in July I had said I was already moving him to the 1.07. At this point I’m moving him down further. Why would I stick to my original valuation when new information is coming in?

This. To the bolded part.

Ice, you reaffirmed my feelings on Metcalf (btw, I'm out for this season and rebuying the dip) and opened my eyes to Hollywood when there were fears he'd be John Ross 2.0. Drafted a few shares of each. Your WR analysis along with DD's rookie WR analysis are top-notch. Thanks.

Surprised you don't have some Burks. Thought he was your WR call for this draft. Must have been mistaken.

Regardless, it's all good. I like to trade and move players around quickly when I get the sense of a trend. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn't.

[Ice]

My point 9 weeks gives an owner at least a realistic timeline line to see improvement. Thinking any of you really know he will be a bust or not after a few weeks of camp in dynasty are straight up fools. I find it funny how so many are devoid of the concept that players entering the league are pretty raw with very few exceptions and it takes time to learn how the adults play the game and get better with repetition, coaching, diet, and study not to mention getting on the same page as a the QB.

He could bust no doubt but panic selling is stupid. If you drafted him high and have cold feet that is one thing provided you can get equal or better value but it shows an incredible lack of fortitude to rate a player highly then run away at the first sign of a bad few days at camp.

BTW, there is nothing wrong with the trades you made as you got in kind value in return but as of today if you somehow think you fleeced anyone that is 100% conjecture at this point.

Didn't say I fleeced anyone. Said I feel I came close to resetting the value of the 1.03-1.05 pick I used to get him. A value I would not be able to get going forward (unless, of course, he turns things around...which is entirely possible).

Fantasy football is conjecture. That's pretty much all it is.

I don't know if he will bust. I felt there was very little chance of him busting when I took him so high because of how I felt about him predraft and all the vacated targets in Tennessee. It's not been a few bad days. It's been an entire offseason. In fact, I can't remember the last time a rookie has had such a bad offseason. He's chances of busting have definitely increased.

IMO, it's bad process not to use relevant information to readjust your valuations.

Exactly this.

No one is claiming to know anything for sure. But a fool is one who won’t take in new information and is stubbornly stuck to their opinion.

An example would be poker. You may love your pair of KK but when an ace flops and everyone else starts betting and raising do you hold to the river because you would be a fool to lay down a hand you were certain about earlier?

Ice, I learn a lot reading your analysis on wrs but you love to resort to name calling if someone doesn’t agree with you

I am not claiming Burks will for sure bust. I’m using new information to mitigate risk. Before my draft in July I had said I was already moving him to the 1.07. At this point I’m moving him down further. Why would I stick to my original valuation when new information is coming in?

I didn't call anyone a name... WTF exactly are you reading?

Make sure to read every single word of a sentence. I could care less if an owner sells a player. I also get panic selling which is different than selling for in kind value which I also mentioned he received.

[Ice]

This. To the bolded part.

Ice, you reaffirmed my feelings on Metcalf (btw, I'm out for this season and rebuying the dip) and opened my eyes to Hollywood when there were fears he'd be John Ross 2.0. Drafted a few shares of each. Your WR analysis along with DD's rookie WR analysis are top-notch. Thanks.

Surprised you don't have some Burks. Thought he was your WR call for this draft. Must have been mistaken.

Regardless, it's all good. I like to trade and move players around quickly when I get the sense of a trend. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn't.

It's all good. I actually like several WR's in this class including Burks. I did move him down some the more I evaluated players but I still like him. I am higher on Watson long term than most and very high on Olave who looks to have a lot of polish already.

The one player that I wasn't high on is London. I don't like his lower body much or his speed so think he may be one dimensional but that is a different conversation.

Like I said, I do like the trades you made so you weren't in panic mode.

[Pullo Vision]

Didn't say I fleeced anyone. Said I feel I came close to resetting the value of the 1.03-1.05 pick I used to get him. A value I would not be able to get going forward (unless, of course, he turns things around...which is entirely possible).

Fantasy football is conjecture. That's pretty much all it is.

I don't know if he will bust. I felt there was very little chance of him busting when I took him so high because of how I felt about him predraft and all the vacated targets in Tennessee. It's not been a few bad days. It's been an entire offseason. In fact, I can't remember the last time a rookie has had such a bad offseason. He's chances of busting have definitely increased.

IMO, it's bad process not to use relevant information to readjust your valuations.

Exactly this.

No one is claiming to know anything for sure. But a fool is one who won’t take in new information and is stubbornly stuck to their opinion.

An example would be poker. You may love your pair of KK but when an ace flops and everyone else starts betting and raising do you hold to the river because you would be a fool to lay down a hand you were certain about earlier?

Ice, I learn a lot reading your analysis on wrs but you love to resort to name calling if someone doesn’t agree with you

I am not claiming Burks will for sure bust. I’m using new information to mitigate risk. Before my draft in July I had said I was already moving him to the 1.07. At this point I’m moving him down further. Why would I stick to my original valuation when new information is coming in?

I didn't call anyone a name... WTF exactly are you reading?

Make sure to read every single word of a sentence. I could care less if an owner sells a player. I also get panic selling which is different than selling for in kind value which I also mentioned he received.

I'd say insulting someone's intelligence (in this case that disagrees with you) qualifies- "Thinking any of you really know he will be a bust or not after a few weeks of camp in dynasty are straight up fools."

In my mind, you draft players like him and Watson knowing there may be an extended takeoff, and the wait for that might make them appear no different than a bust. You either draft for the long haul or avoid entirely. Expecting year 1 production from players who require extensive seasoning due largely to opportunity and vacated targets is the risk, IMO.