Postby Avery » Tue May 04, 2021 10:40 am
Vcize wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 9:06 am
As someone sitting at 1.07 expecting Waddle to be the guy there, this is actually a good thread and brings up a comparison I hadn't thought of.
Waddle was ranked WELL ahead of Toney pre-draft so passing it off as just a difference in landing spots is taking the easy way out. The reality is people think of Waddle as a much better player than Toney, and asking "why?" is a fair question.
As a Gators fan I think there are some fallacies around Toney. Namely that he was a gadget player. To be fair, he was brought in as a gadget player. He wore Percy Harvin's number, he started off getting nothing but screens, reverses, or straight up handoffs. His official position wasn't even WR, it was "utility".
But he wasn't actually very good at that stuff. He was no Percy. So the Gators kind of gave up on that, switched his official position to WR, and played him in a more typical WR role. And he flourished at that this year, to the tune of 70-984-10, far better than any full season Waddle has put together. It turns out Toney's moves work much better without the ball in his hands on pass routes than they do with the ball in his hands on gadget plays.
I don't get the argument on the first page that Toney didn't have to earn his targets like Waddle did. #4 overall pick Kyle Pitts isn't exactly chopped liver. And the notion that "people feel Waddle can be as good as Jeudy/Ruggs" isn't exactly a great selling point right now given the current fantasy value of Jeudy/Ruggs.
When push comes to shove and I'm sure I will take Waddle. Why? I don't know, because NFL scouts say so I guess. When I watch their highlights I don't see that large of a difference.
But scouts rank Waddle extremely highly and are fairly meh on Toney. I think a part of that is that even analysts/scouts have gotten caught in the trap of Toney being a gadget guy because 3 out of 4 years of his highlights are him being used in that role, and they look at his statline from this past year and assume it came in the same manner. But I can't ignore that guys like McShay/Jeremiah rank Waddle among their top 5 WRs of the last 5-10 years and probably don't even think highly enough of Toney to spell his name right. I don't get it, but with that large of a gulf I can't really ignore it.
Probably in the end I'll get burned again by a WR that got to run downfield unimpeded as defenses dealt with other threats on the field, with plenty of time for long routes to develop thanks to a brick wall of NFL linemen playing against college competition, while catching passes from a trio of NFL starting QBs. Maybe this time he'll finally really be "different" but probably not. As a Dolphins fan at least I'll have a fun rooting interest though.
Good points and good discussion but I think you may be doing some completing of the fantasy community vs. scouts here.
Waddle was the 2nd WR taken (1.06)
Toney was the 4th WR taken (1.20)
So by results, at least one scouting department (and two if you count what Urban Meyer said about being bummed he missed on him in the 1st round) had them just a few ranking apart. I don't know if we ever know what other interval NFL scouting departments think (I assume anything they "leak" is self-serving propaganda) but I do know that Matt Waldman said he had Toney 5th in his WR rankings so couldn't have them too far apart either.
My point isn't that Toney should be taken over Waddle, he shouldn't, but I just see similar players with similar upside here and think where Toney is falling in rookie drafts, he's just exceptional value with upside for days.
Team 1: Dynasty/Contract Team: 12 Team, PPR, QB,1 RB, 2WR, 2 Flex WR/RB, TE (Premium TE scoring: 1.25X receiving yards points)
QB – J. Hurts, A Richardson
RB – Javonte Williams, K. Walker III, J. Ford, K. Miller, J.K. Dobbins,
WR – J. Chase, C. Lamb, P. Nakua, K. Allen, T. Burks
TE – D. Waller, C. Okonkwo, L. Thomas, J. Ferguson
2024 rookie/FA picks: 1.12. 2.12, 3.12
Team 2: Dynasty Team: 12 Team, 0.5 PPR, QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex WR/RB/TE (Premium TE scoring: 1.5X receiving yards points)
QB - A. Rodgers, L. Jackson
RB - B. Hall, S. Barkley, A. Kamara, E. Mitchell, J. Mason, Z. White, K. Miller (R), T. Spears (R)
WR - T. Hill, D. Adams, C. Watson, M. Brown, R. Rice (R)
TE - D. Waller, G. Kittle, J. Ferguson