Ezekiel Elliott Thread: Should we Buy or Sell?

[ThirdWW]

So I think it's pretty well established Elliot is the 1.1 of '16. Long term how does he fit in the NFL. Will he eventually be considered in the Gurley/Bell tier? Lumped in the cluster of mid/low RB1? Interested in hearing where this conversation heads.

[Telperion]

He's not a can't miss talent, but he also already has an NFL skill set.

I see him like a Doug Martin type. People forget he caught 49 passes his rookie year. Similar bodies, similar skill set, likely to have similar value profiles.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I don't think he's like Doug Martin at all really. More of a Ryan Mathews player to me. You would just have to envision what his career would have been like without all the injuries.

[ThirdWW]

DeLorean, what "tier" do you have him in based on your metric formula?

[Cameron Giles]

I think he'll be a mid to high end RB. He really doesn't have any fundamental flaws. He's as complete an RB prospect as you can ask for.

[Valhalla]

I think he'll be a mid to high end RB. He really doesn't have any fundamental flaws. He's as complete an RB prospect as you can ask for.

This. Like any prospect he could bomb out, but he's got as safe a skill-set as you can ask for at RB. He's good enough to be elite, if a team chooses to feature him in such a way. He's a 3 down guy if his future coach(es) is/are looking for that.

[yooperbacker]

All rbs have a little situational dependency. A pure runner like Zeke needs the carries. Consistent workload comes from a good defense. I could see him ceeding some passing down work. (most rbs as in some sort of timeshare) He does have a very high floor, but his upside is situationally defendant IMO.

[Mefisto]

So far, what I've seen/heard of Zeke reminds me of Matt Forte. He seems solid at every aspect of the game without excelling at any one thing.

[KCLep20]

I like the Ryan Mathews comp. both were solid built guys who could handle 3-down work. Mathews caught the injury bug, but in the 2 years he was healthy he put up top 10 PPR seasons. Zeke is a really good back, but like others said, he isn't truly elite in any one trait. I still think AP/Gurley are on a different level, but that doesn't mean he can't be a top 5-10 RB for the next 5 years.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

DeLorean, what "tier" do you have him in based on your metric formula?

The safest one

[Phaded]

I find it extremely plausible that this time next year - we will be talking about Zeke as a top 3-5 back.

[Telperion]

Let's play "name that RB prospect" by scouting snippets, here's a mixture of Ezekiel Elliott and Doug Martin. Identify which is which:

1: "He has strong athletic ability, with his footwork being his most outstanding trait."
2: "A highly productive back with a polished all-around game. He looks and plays like a starting NFL back."
3: "He can make people miss in the open field and in tight spaces."
4: "Has a bona fide jump-­cut to elude penetration in the backfield and enough burst to elude chasers when he bounces runs to the outside."
5: "What stands out most about ______ is his decisiveness as a ball carrier; he often hits the hole hard."
6: "Instinctive, short strider with instant reaction time."
7: "A very traditional back who is not extremely explosive. He is good in all facets, but some scouts will knock him for not being "outstanding" in any one particular area."
8: "Exceptional balance through contact and takes tacklers for a ride."
9: "He is an effective runner between the tackles and can burst through the lane to take it the distance."
10: "Good receiver, quality blocker in blitz protection, well-rounded, soft-hands"

Elliott: 6'0", 225, 4.47, 33 vert, 9'10" broad
Martin: 5'9", 223, 4.46, 36 vert, 10" broad

Mathews came out of college without much skill in the passing game.

[JJDubya]

I find it extremely plausible that this time next year - we will be talking about Zeke as a top 3-5 back.

Tend to agree with this. I'll likely be drafting him on WR needy teams in the hopes that he commands round 1/2 overall value this time next year...a la Gurley and DJ. To me it's an investment. He'll likely put up immediate production compared to any WR in this class, and I see him as having the best chance of having his value creep into the top 15 overall discussion, whareas I don't see any WRs getting close to that, atm. If he went to Dallas, for argument's sake, you could probably turn him around post-draft to any team for close to what Gurley and Bell are currently commanding.

[DynoScout]

I think Doug Martin is a fair play-style comp for Elliott as prospects, but I believe Doug was a 23/24 year old rookie. Isn't Zeke the youngest RB in this class?

Not noteworthy for everyone, especially at RB, but some dynasty owners place wildly different valuations on that.

[Telperion]

Yes, Doug was quite old, and he was a top 7 startup pick after his rookie year.

Zeke's potential ceiling should be considered no lower than Martin's was at his peak value.

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