Running Back Vulnerability Index

[Blueboy]

Quite interesting to see so few votes for Aaron Jones.

[FantasyFreak]

Quite interesting to see so few votes for Aaron Jones.

Probably has to do with Lafleur saying he wanted a 3rd back to be part of the mix.

[Pac_Eddy]

Quite interesting to see so few votes for Aaron Jones.

I just don't see the Packers drafting a RB high, and Aaron Jones fending off a late round pick. The Packers have a lot of needs.

I do, like many, see a dropoff from that ridiculous TD rate and a similar drop in his value.

[dynastyninja]

Fun exercise. My less popular pick was Marlon Mack. IND has two 2nds, so they could be looking at a RB as the best player available. Might just be that I'm not as high on Mack as others.

[CGW]

Mack isnt my favorite but hes solid. I could see them taking an RB, but doubt it's the top 4. It's his job to lose for now either way and his value is already pretty low (early second maybe?).

[Ice]

In reality outside of 5-6 RB's they are all vulnerable.

Surprised so many still actually believe in Made of Glass Guice while so many don't believe in the young RB with best YPC last season of all backs with 150 plus carries.

[dynastyninja]

In reality outside of 5-6 RB's they are all vulnerable.

Surprised so many still actually believe in Made of Glass Guice while so many don't believe in the young RB with best YPC last season of all backs with 150 plus carries.

While I am a Guice believer, it's less about him and more about Washington's current RB room. They just re-signed AP and also will have a healthy Bryce Love. I don't expect them to draft anyone that would cause Guice to be immediately downgraded, especially without a 2nd rounder.

[themburns]

In reality outside of 5-6 RB's they are all vulnerable.

Surprised so many still actually believe in Made of Glass Guice while so many don't believe in the young RB with best YPC last season of all backs with 150 plus carries.

The question was phrased "after the NFL draft." I do think he's in a timeshare and he'll lose value this year but I don't think they address the position in a meaningful way and that it will happen with a longer run-way to sell. (edit: or what DynastyNinja said)

I voted Singletary, K. Johnson, Montgomery, Mack, Conner, D. Williams, RoJo.

Singletary- The Bills in free agency were reported to have mutual interest with Melvin Gordon. It doesn't exactly inspire confidence.

K. Johnson - The whole NE cosplay act in Detroit going on right now screams timeshare.

Mack - The Colts have had great O-Line play, and we saw journeymen like Jonathan Williams come in and produce well for stretches of time. They have extra draft capital as mentioned, and need to take pressure of Phillip Rivers at this point in his career.

Conner - The writing seems to be on the wall with this one. The only thing that gives me hope is that Pittsburgh does not have a 1st this year. Some of the loss of value is already baked in, and I think they'd have to draft a 2nd round RB to put him on the bench right now.

D. Williams - He will be 28 this season, that alone sets off alarm bells. The 3rd down RB would still be a flex startable role on this team, except Mahomes is more willing to look downfield on 3rd and medium to long as any QB in the league.

Ronald Jones - I do not get the Buccaneers. This seems logical but that's probably why they will not draft a RB. He's Bishop Sankey+, but without competition. Brady needs a back that can bail him out underneath and they don't have that right now. Maybe this is a landing spot for Edwards-Helaire?

[murphysxm]

I guess for me, the poll is a little flawed. It is more who do we expect to decline from where we "thought" they would be last year

[Mike11]

I think this is a refreshing post, without too much news to digest right now, this is a good thought exercise. Although if I'm being honest, I bet a lot of this is "if we're a gm, who are we bringing up to the guillotine".

My big ones are Ronald Jones, Marlon Mack (maybe a later guy) and now James Connor (a little surprising because they are truly devoid of picks and need help in a lot of areas).

Dark horse is Mark Ingram, they can get out from his contract after this year and the Ravens own the following picks: 1,2,2,3,3,4,4,5,7. As a Ravens fan I'd love to see us take Swift or Taylor and that is a juicy landing spot if you're patient.

[Cameron Giles]

If we're being objective and not using this as an exercise to deflate the value of RBs who we don't own:

Unlikely:
Seahawks - Carson and Penny are more than formidable together. It really doesn't make much sense for the Seahawks to draft an RB high.
Bears - They just traded up for Montgomery a year ago and they badly need OL help. Can't see how it makes sense for them to draft high on another RB.
Colts - Mack has been on pace for 1,000yd+ the last two seasons and Hines is a more than competent COP back. I don't see the football logic here.
Rams - They don't have many picks and they just traded up for Henderson a year ago. I think they roll with Henderson/Brown for a year.
Redskins - They have a lot of RBs. They need WRs and a TE more.
Cardinals - I could see them drafting an RB, but it looks like Drake is the guy next season.

Plausible:
Steelers - Tea leaves in the media recently that they want to add a back. I still think Conner's the guy though, and they still have Samuels and Snell. So, it's not an urgent need.
Chiefs - They don't have many picks, but they do need RB depth with McCoy gone, or a banger to compliment Williams.
Falcons - Not much behind Gurley
Lions - Need a compliment to Johnson
Packers - Need a compliment to Jones

Likely:
Bills - Need a banger to match Singletary
Jets - Not much behind Bell, who isn't in their long-term plans
Chargers - Need a banger to compliment Ekeler
Bucs - Need a pass catching back and they've already gone on record that they're looking for one

[Pullo Vision]

If we're being objective and not using this as an exercise to deflate the value of RBs who we don't own:

Unlikely:
Seahawks - Carson and Penny are more than formidable together. It really doesn't make much sense for the Seahawks to draft an RB high.
Bears - They just traded up for Montgomery a year ago and they badly need OL help. Can't see how it makes sense for them to draft high on another RB.
Colts - Mack has been on pace for 1,000yd+ the last two seasons and Hines is a more than competent COP back. I don't see the football logic here.
Rams - They don't have many picks and they just traded up for Henderson a year ago. I think they roll with Henderson/Brown for a year.
Redskins - They have a lot of RBs. They need WRs and a TE more.
Cardinals - I could see them drafting an RB, but it looks like Drake is the guy next season.

Plausible:
Steelers - Tea leaves in the media recently that they want to add a back. I still think Conner's the guy though, and they still have Samuels and Snell. So, it's not an urgent need.
Chiefs - They don't have many picks, but they do need RB depth with McCoy gone, or a banger to compliment Williams.
Falcons - Not much behind Gurley
Lions - Need a compliment to Johnson
Packers - Need a compliment to Jones

Likely:
Bills - Need a banger to match Singletary
Jets - Not much behind Bell, who isn't in their long-term plans
Chargers - Need a banger to compliment Ekeler
Bucs - Need a pass catching back and they've already gone on record that they're looking for one

I'm good with this framework. I've been stashing Justin Jackson as a player that could relieve the pressure to get an Ekeler wingman. Even though I see Ito Smith and Brian Hill as stash options, I think the Falcons depth chart issues should push them into the likely group. I don't think this is exclusive to highly drafted RBs. A 4th round back could impact player values, though that doesn't mean production.

[dmac37]

I must say I'm surprised no mention of Fournette. I have a share of Leonard but I think it is pretty obvious his receptions are going to go way down with the new regime. He produced numbers by sheer volume especially receptions, he was not efficient and I do not see Gruden using him like he was used last year. A 3rd down back or two will be coming to the Jaguars through draft or free agency.

[OhCruelestRanter]

I must say I'm surprised no mention of Fournette. I have a share of Leonard but I think it is pretty obvious his receptions are going to go way down with the new regime. He produced numbers by sheer volume especially receptions, he was not efficient and I do not see Gruden using him like he was used last year. A 3rd down back or two will be coming to the Jaguars through draft or free agency.

Had him in there initially. Poll only allows for 15 guys.

[skinfanjon]

I must say I'm surprised no mention of Fournette. I have a share of Leonard but I think it is pretty obvious his receptions are going to go way down with the new regime. He produced numbers by sheer volume especially receptions, he was not efficient and I do not see Gruden using him like he was used last year. A 3rd down back or two will be coming to the Jaguars through draft or free agency.

Skins fan here. Let me tell you, Jay Gruden LOVES Chris Thompson. Absolutely loves him. I dont know if the Jags FO will listen, but I promise you he is in their ear trying to bring him in and if they do, he'll steal a lot of those receptions and 5-8 carries per game...for however long he stays healthy.