Marvin Jones?

[HawkeyeState]

Like I said in another thread a couple of weeks ago about Marvin Jones.
Why do we care?
If we are talking 12 or less teams with normal starting lineups why do we care about Marvin Jones? he's a bye week/injury fill in at best. Still wouldn't be shocked if the Lions get OTC and their BPA is a WR who is probably better than Marvin Jones right now.

Just go look at the top 30 or so scoring WRs in your league. Can you honestly put Marvin Jones ahead of any of those guys?
If you can, now think about those top 30 scoring WRs and add in the rookies incoming that you think could get into that range. Now add in guys like Kevin White, Devante Parker, Breshad Perriman, guys who were hurt but have great situations and should at worst be in that top 30 scoring category of WRs. Now try and get Marvin Jones into the top 30 scoring for 2016.
I have an impossible time trying to make that happen. He's a WR4 at best. Let's not get the cart before the horse here

[pokerface40]

Like I said in another thread a couple of weeks ago about Marvin Jones.
Why do we care?
If we are talking 12 or less teams with normal starting lineups why do we care about Marvin Jones? he's a bye week/injury fill in at best. Still wouldn't be shocked if the Lions get OTC and their BPA is a WR who is probably better than Marvin Jones right now.

Just go look at the top 30 or so scoring WRs in your league. Can you honestly put Marvin Jones ahead of any of those guys?
If you can, now think about those top 30 scoring WRs and add in the rookies incoming that you think could get into that range. Now add in guys like Kevin White, Devante Parker, Breshad Perriman, guys who were hurt but have great situations and should at worst be in that top 30 scoring category of WRs. Now try and get Marvin Jones into the top 30 scoring for 2016.
I have an impossible time trying to make that happen. He's a WR4 at best. Let's not get the cart before the horse here

So you don't care about your bye week/injury/WR4?

[HawkeyeState]

Like I said in another thread a couple of weeks ago about Marvin Jones.
Why do we care?
If we are talking 12 or less teams with normal starting lineups why do we care about Marvin Jones? he's a bye week/injury fill in at best. Still wouldn't be shocked if the Lions get OTC and their BPA is a WR who is probably better than Marvin Jones right now.

Just go look at the top 30 or so scoring WRs in your league. Can you honestly put Marvin Jones ahead of any of those guys?
If you can, now think about those top 30 scoring WRs and add in the rookies incoming that you think could get into that range. Now add in guys like Kevin White, Devante Parker, Breshad Perriman, guys who were hurt but have great situations and should at worst be in that top 30 scoring category of WRs. Now try and get Marvin Jones into the top 30 scoring for 2016.
I have an impossible time trying to make that happen. He's a WR4 at best. Let's not get the cart before the horse here

So you don't care about your bye week/injury/WR4?

No because more than likely I do have someone much better than Marvin Jones as my WR4/injury bye week guy.
If I'm banking on Marvin Jones being anything more than he has been than my team needs some better WR depth

[holy_stromboli]

Obviously Ebron has bricks for hands, but I have hopes he developed.

This is definitely something no one has mentioned yet -- Eric Ebron. Since the Lions aren't likely to take a guy like Treadwell, and Jones is clearly not Megatron, that leaves a good amount of targets and RZ TD's up for grabs. I know Ebron has brick hands, but TE generally takes a few years to develop. I'm not the biggest Ebron fan myself, but can't help but feel his opportunity is big here if he puts it together.

Is anyone buying Ebron at this point?

[akbfrosty]

Just go look at the top 30 or so scoring WRs in your league. Can you honestly put Marvin Jones ahead of any of those guys?
If you can, now think about those top 30 scoring WRs and add in the rookies incoming that you think could get into that range. Now add in guys like Kevin White, Devante Parker, Breshad Perriman, guys who were hurt but have great situations and should at worst be in that top 30 scoring category of WRs. Now try and get Marvin Jones into the top 30 scoring for 2016.
I have an impossible time trying to make that happen. He's a WR4 at best. Let's not get the cart before the horse here

This is an interesting way to look at player rankings...but I feel like it's pretty open to name bias rather than projection (also open to bias). Marvin Jones name might not fit there, but when I think about what his season could look like and then what those points look like in total, it's easier for me to see it.

If I were to predict Jone's -1 and +1 z scores (ignoring injury), it would look something like 65/800/6 and 80/1100/10, respectively. That puts him around 180 points, or low end WR3 in a 12 team league this past year and 250, which was a high end WR2. Maybe you're just disagreeing with Detroit's assessment (and mine) of his fit in the offense, which is fine...or maybe your league setup makes Jones less of a factor. I can understand if it's a 10 or 12 team with a max of 3 WR starts to a point.

Lastly, the bolded part is interesting to me...as it insinuates Jones hasn't shown ability, while crowning a couple of 2nd year guys who haven't played yet as putting up top 30 numbers next year. Don't get me wrong, I like all three of them, but I'd be more inclined to bet on Jones's production to beat at least two out of the three.

[BuckeyeNation]

Like I said in another thread a couple of weeks ago about Marvin Jones.
Why do we care?
If we are talking 12 or less teams with normal starting lineups why do we care about Marvin Jones? he's a bye week/injury fill in at best. Still wouldn't be shocked if the Lions get OTC and their BPA is a WR who is probably better than Marvin Jones right now.

Just go look at the top 30 or so scoring WRs in your league. Can you honestly put Marvin Jones ahead of any of those guys?
If you can, now think about those top 30 scoring WRs and add in the rookies incoming that you think could get into that range. Now add in guys like Kevin White, Devante Parker, Breshad Perriman, guys who were hurt but have great situations and should at worst be in that top 30 scoring category of WRs. Now try and get Marvin Jones into the top 30 scoring for 2016.
I have an impossible time trying to make that happen. He's a WR4 at best. Let's not get the cart before the horse here

Here's what I'll say to that. Though it's very difficult to project and predict what players will be top 30 at the end of any particular season, we can pretty accurately predict the range of points that would need to be scored to for a WR to be top 30 at the end the of season. Over the past 5 season in PPR scoring, the year end WR30 scored between 180-191pts. That's a pretty narrow range over a 5 year period, so we know with a fairly reasonable amount of certainty what Marvin Jones (or any WR) would need to do to be a top 30 WR.

Last year James Jones was the PPR WR30 (191pts) ....Yeah that's right, James Jones. He did so with a year end stat line 50/890/8. That's really nothing impressive and it's still top 30 numbers. I wonder if some people automatically assume it takes a higher stat line to be a top 30 WR than it really does. Marvin Jones could go 60/950/7 and be a top 30 WR. I'm high on Marvin, but I find it hard to believe that many people would project with any confidence that Marvin Jones can't reach a year end stat line that pedestrian (Given health of course) and churn out a top 30 PPR season.

Personally I'm expecting something more like 75/1100/8, which would be 223pts in PPR and good for WR15-16 numbers based on 2015 stats. That's just my personal opinion though, and I don't discount anybody that doesn't like Jones or believe that he doesn't have a lot of upside.

[Sou1Ca1iber]

Now I'm stuck with both Tate and Jones in one league, was planning on trading one of them away in the offseason but not sure I want to now. Might have to keep both and see who emerges as the top dog next year.

[heyfeefellskee]

He went from being worth maybe a 2nd to a first+ in about a month.

Other owners have offered him to me (I've shown no previous interest) in 2 different leagues. One league asked for 2 firsts. I personally don't think he's worth it, so what's the deal?

[Phaded]

Perception that he's going to be the top guy in Detroit - but in reality, they have 2 WR2s.

[Cameron Giles]

People love situation

[AZK]

Owner perception bias.

[HawkeyeState]

Tried to basically say this in a different Marvin Jones thread and everyone told me I wasn't valuing Jones properly.
I own him nowhere and will not own him anywhere. He's a late 2nd at best value player and even that is rich IMO

[TheChicken]

Andy Dalton bias x Matt Stafford Gunslinger bias + Golden Tate 2015 bias x large contract means Marvin will be heavily featured misconception.

This will soon be divided by 'shinny new draft prospect' !

[_stl_rams_fan_]

He's just the latest "get rich quick" trade piece right now, nothing to see

[Pac_Eddy]

Perception that he's going to be the top guy in Detroit - but in reality, they have 2 WR2s.

Nailed it. I wouldn't be buying Marvin Jones or Golden Tate. The odds of Jones living up to his contract are very slim.