Michael Crabtree Vs. Dez Bryant

[skip]

Bryant is being way overhyped at this point and Im starting to think its ALL because of how Crabtree is bein perceived...no rookie WR should be in the top 15 before stepping foot on the field....

College production, combine numbers, offseason ratings, opinions, etc. are all trumped by experience in the NFL. I do think Dez could have a very good career in front of him, but any projections are a foolhardy venture. We have seen what Crabtree can do and he has top 10 talent. Selecting Dez here would mean you would have to have confidence in him minimally being a top 10 without a single down played in the NFL.

Crabtree has played a few more games than Dez for sure, but we're talking about a very small sample size here. We still haven't seen a training camp from Crabtree or Dez yet. I don't see how we can give Crabtree a huge advantage here based on very little NFL experience, we're not even sure how much of the playbook Crabtree even learned last year.

Who said it was a huge advantage? This is the same "known" vs the "unknown" argument that we have about every player coming in. Owners need to be careful about overvaluing players before they have even seen them play at this level. Plenty of guys who were very successful in school and owners projected very high have failed once they reached the NFL. Rookies are generally overdrafted and can set a team back when they don't hit.

In this case, I do think both players will be very successful at the NFL level. But without an NFL game to his credit, I cannot in good conscience project Dez ahead of Crabtree.

[rkrazy]

College production, combine numbers, offseason ratings, opinions, etc. are all trumped by experience in the NFL. I do think Dez could have a very good career in front of him, but any projections are a foolhardy venture. We have seen what Crabtree can do and he has top 10 talent. Selecting Dez here would mean you would have to have confidence in him minimally being a top 10 without a single down played in the NFL.

Couldn't agree more Skip. Sampling from my 3 startup leagues this year (drafted rookies and vets together). All 3 leagues are 12 teamers and they're filled with experienced/saavy dynasty ballers. Some nuances in the scoring and starting lineups.

Dez was taken:
Draft #1) 11th WR (ahead of VJax, Wayne, Rice and Colston)
Draft #2) 12th WR (ahead of Crabtree and Jennings)
Draft #3) 18th WR (between Smith(Car) and Nicks) - I was shocked he fell in this one. Just one more pick and he would have been my WR3. This league TEs score 1.5ppr so a handful went early pushing WRs ranked 14-20 into the 5th round.

Dez should become a great WR. In fact I believe he will become a top 10 fantasy WR at some point. But the 2011 draft has a couple more guys that will enter the league with the same billing...so like groundhog's day we'll be talking about this same thing next year too. Right now all we hear from coaches is how great their rookies look. So Wade Philips stating that is status quo. Fact is they are both talented divas, very young, explosive players with elite WR ceilings. But Crabtree is a known commodity and definitely has less ball sharing concerns with other talented players around him stealing touches. Dallas is not going to suddenly toss Witten and Austin aside because the fantasy football community thinks Dez is the greatest thing since sliced bread.

[Shawn]

College production, combine numbers, offseason ratings, opinions, etc. are all trumped by experience in the NFL. I do think Dez could have a very good career in front of him, but any projections are a foolhardy venture. We have seen what Crabtree can do and he has top 10 talent. Selecting Dez here would mean you would have to have confidence in him minimally being a top 10 without a single down played in the NFL.

Crabtree has played a few more games than Dez for sure, but we're talking about a very small sample size here. We still haven't seen a training camp from Crabtree or Dez yet. I don't see how we can give Crabtree a huge advantage here based on very little NFL experience, we're not even sure how much of the playbook Crabtree even learned last year.

Who said it was a huge advantage? This is the same "known" vs the "unknown" argument that we have about every player coming in. Owners need to be careful about overvaluing players before they have even seen them play at this level. Plenty of guys who were very successful in school and owners projected very high have failed once they reached the NFL. Rookies are generally overdrafted and can set a team back when they don't hit.

In this case, I do think both players will be very successful at the NFL level. But without an NFL game to his credit, I cannot in good conscience project Dez ahead of Crabtree.

Every single WR drafted last year is more "known" in the NFL than Dez Bryant, including players like Brian Robiskie and Darius Heyward-Bey. I think there is a point we have to draw the line here and take the chance on the unproven rookie, even if its going against conventional thinking. I think we can give a slight advantage to Crabtree over Bryant in redraft leagues, and an even slighter advantage in dynasty, but I don't see a reason to take Crabtree over Bryant simply based on such limited NFL experience or success. For example a year ago I brought up a trade here on the forum I made in a local league, where basically I traded the "proven" Donnie Avery and a rookie draft pick for the "unproven" Jeremy Maclin, and people thought I made a terrible deal, yet it has seemed to work out fine for me, it was a calculated risk that has worked out thus far.

[princevincexoxo]

Crabtree has played a few more games than Dez for sure, but we're talking about a very small sample size here. We still haven't seen a training camp from Crabtree or Dez yet. I don't see how we can give Crabtree a huge advantage here based on very little NFL experience, we're not even sure how much of the playbook Crabtree even learned last year.

Who said it was a huge advantage? This is the same "known" vs the "unknown" argument that we have about every player coming in. Owners need to be careful about overvaluing players before they have even seen them play at this level. Plenty of guys who were very successful in school and owners projected very high have failed once they reached the NFL. Rookies are generally overdrafted and can set a team back when they don't hit.

In this case, I do think both players will be very successful at the NFL level. But without an NFL game to his credit, I cannot in good conscience project Dez ahead of Crabtree.

Every single WR drafted last year is more "known" in the NFL than Dez Bryant, including players like Brian Robiskie and Darius Heyward-Bey. I think there is a point we have to draw the line here and take the chance on the unproven rookie, even if its going against conventional thinking. I think we can give a slight advantage to Crabtree over Bryant in redraft leagues, and an even slighter advantage in dynasty, but I don't see a reason to take Crabtree over Bryant simply based on such limited NFL experience or success. For example a year ago I brought up a trade here on the forum I made in a local league, where basically I traded the "proven" Donnie Avery and a rookie draft pick for the "unproven" Jeremy Maclin, and people thought I made a terrible deal, yet it has seemed to work out fine for me, it was a calculated risk that has worked out thus far.

I was trying not to post for awhile but there was something very miscommunicated here in your response that just compelled me to respond.

Donnie Avery, Robiskie, and Heyward Bey arent really productive..so even though they are known, their level of production is not known to be high...therefore the risk you took when trading for Maclin was well worth it. Bryant over Crabtree is not - unless you dont think very highly of Crabtree for some reason (in which case his stats arent in your favor) its way too much expectation, and its not humbled AT ALL....I dont mind people liking Dex, but to me its just a poor position to put yourself, and your team in expectation wise if you are drafting him in the 2nd/3rd round of a startup in front of guys like Wayne-Sidney-Maclin-etc...thats not realistic, thats risky, and very poor decision making in my opinion. People who really like Dez Bryant shouldnt realistically be able to choose between the two even if they are that high on Dez because definitively rating him higher than Crabtree would mean...
1) You would have to ignore Witten, Miles, and their RB's
2) You would have to assume his chemistry with Romo
3) You would have to assume his work ethic and communication skills
4) You would have to think either
a) Crabtree wouldnt be productive (which isnt supported by facts) or b) Crabtree would do very well but Bryant would produce more regardless

As good as he may be thats still a pretty hefty expectation for someone who hasnt stepped on the field yet. So many people live in a ideal fantasy world where everything is perfect..when its not. To say Crabtree will be better doesnt take much evidence...just point at the direction he, and his team is going, and how he has interacted with that team with less communication, and less chemistry, you can assume with not much risk, that he will improve on those numbers...thats a much better risk than one based on no sample.

Its good to take risks, if this were a rookie draft and people were taking him at 1 thats different...but 2nd/3rd round in startup is WAY too high, dont care how talented the guy is - you are assuming success, and thats unrealistic, and unsupported at this point. It COULD pay off, but its not a safe bet and in 2nd/3rd round...I want safer bets there.

I would take Dez Bryant over Desean Jackson though

[Steelersfan]

I think both are very good talents but Dez has the better overall skill set IMO.

[Shawn]

Who said it was a huge advantage? This is the same "known" vs the "unknown" argument that we have about every player coming in. Owners need to be careful about overvaluing players before they have even seen them play at this level. Plenty of guys who were very successful in school and owners projected very high have failed once they reached the NFL. Rookies are generally overdrafted and can set a team back when they don't hit.

In this case, I do think both players will be very successful at the NFL level. But without an NFL game to his credit, I cannot in good conscience project Dez ahead of Crabtree.

Every single WR drafted last year is more "known" in the NFL than Dez Bryant, including players like Brian Robiskie and Darius Heyward-Bey. I think there is a point we have to draw the line here and take the chance on the unproven rookie, even if its going against conventional thinking. I think we can give a slight advantage to Crabtree over Bryant in redraft leagues, and an even slighter advantage in dynasty, but I don't see a reason to take Crabtree over Bryant simply based on such limited NFL experience or success. For example a year ago I brought up a trade here on the forum I made in a local league, where basically I traded the "proven" Donnie Avery and a rookie draft pick for the "unproven" Jeremy Maclin, and people thought I made a terrible deal, yet it has seemed to work out fine for me, it was a calculated risk that has worked out thus far.

I was trying not to post for awhile but there was something very miscommunicated here in your response that just compelled me to respond.

Donnie Avery, Robiskie, and Heyward Bey arent really productive..so even though they are known, their level of production is not known to be high...therefore the risk you took when trading for Maclin was well worth it. Bryant over Crabtree is not - unless you dont think very highly of Crabtree for some reason (in which case his stats arent in your favor) its way too much expectation, and its not humbled AT ALL....I dont mind people liking Dex, but to me its just a poor position to put yourself, and your team in expectation wise if you are drafting him in the 2nd/3rd round of a startup in front of guys like Wayne-Sidney-Maclin-etc...thats not realistic, thats risky, and very poor decision making in my opinion. People who really like Dez Bryant shouldnt realistically be able to choose between the two even if they are that high on Dez because definitively rating him higher than Crabtree would mean...
1) You would have to ignore Witten, Miles, and their RB's
2) You would have to assume his chemistry with Romo
3) You would have to assume his work ethic and communication skills
4) You would have to think either
a) Crabtree wouldnt be productive (which isnt supported by facts) or b) Crabtree would do very well but Bryant would produce more regardless

As good as he may be thats still a pretty hefty expectation for someone who hasnt stepped on the field yet. So many people live in a ideal fantasy world where everything is perfect..when its not. To say Crabtree will be better doesnt take much evidence...just point at the direction he, and his team is going, and how he has interacted with that team with less communication, and less chemistry, you can assume with not much risk, that he will improve on those numbers...thats a much better risk than one based on no sample.

Its good to take risks, if this were a rookie draft and people were taking him at 1 thats different...but 2nd/3rd round in startup is WAY too high, dont care how talented the guy is - you are assuming success, and thats unrealistic, and unsupported at this point. It COULD pay off, but its not a safe bet and in 2nd/3rd round...I want safer bets there.

I would take Dez Bryant over Desean Jackson though

I think we agree on some points here, notably that Dez is going too high in startup drafts and its a huge risk to take him over more established talent etc. no problem there. I'm just saying that its not like we've seen a ton of NFL experience from Crabtree in relation to Dez Bryant. Crabtree obviously has played in more NFL games, but they both are just starting their first NFL training camp, its not like there is a huge gap between them right now, that's all. But yes, I give a small advantage to Crabtree right now.

Lets move to baseball for a moment for a comparison, last season Red Sox pitcher Clay bucholtz was considered by many as the best pitching prospect in baseball, and made it to the majors with some success last year, he even had a no-hitter, but it wasn't a huge sample though, as he didn't play a full MLB season. This year the top Pitching prospect in MLB was Stephen Strasburg who just joined the majors this past week. If you were doing a dynasty MLB startup draft this spring, conventional thinking may tell you to draft Bucholtz over Strasburg due to the better MLB track record, but you wouldn't be faulted or necessarily wrong for taking a shot on Strasburg before Bucholtz would you?

[skip]

I think we agree on some points here, notably that Dez is going too high in startup drafts and its a huge risk to take him over more established talent etc. no problem there. I'm just saying that its not like we've seen a ton of NFL experience from Crabtree in relation to Dez Bryant. Crabtree obviously has played in more NFL games, but they both are just starting their first NFL training camp, its not like there is a huge gap between them right now, that's all. But yes, I give a small advantage to Crabtree right now.

Lets move to baseball for a moment for a comparison, last season Red Sox pitcher Clay bucholtz was considered by many as the best pitching prospect in baseball, and made it to the majors with some success last year, he even had a no-hitter, but it wasn't a huge sample though, as he didn't play a full MLB season. This year the top Pitching prospect in MLB was Stephen Strasburg who just joined the majors this past week. If you were doing a dynasty MLB startup draft this spring, conventional thinking may tell you to draft Bucholtz over Strasburg due to the better MLB track record, but you wouldn't be faulted or necessarily wrong for taking a shot on Strasburg before Bucholtz would you?

I don't know who either of those baseball players are so the example is meaningless to me...

The likes of Robiskie, Avery, DHB, etc. are knowns... And they are enough of a known that there is a pretty long list of players who should go ahead of them, including a few of the rookies. But when it comes to a player like Crabtree and several others who have considerable skill sets and have already shown value, someone like Dez cannot be compared properly at this point.

Consider the DLF IV Champions League startup:

http://football16.myfantasyleague.com/2 ... CHISE=0000

Nate has been very forthcoming about having Dez in his top 10 and this is by no means being critical of this selection. But should he be drafted in the top 10? I count 7 guys I would rather have that went off the board after him: Crabtree, Colston, S.Rice, Jennings, R.Moss, Maclin, and S.Smith (NYG). Not everyone is going to agree with this list. But at least some of these players I would consider no-brainer selections ahead of him.

[princevincexoxo]

Every single WR drafted last year is more "known" in the NFL than Dez Bryant, including players like Brian Robiskie and Darius Heyward-Bey. I think there is a point we have to draw the line here and take the chance on the unproven rookie, even if its going against conventional thinking. I think we can give a slight advantage to Crabtree over Bryant in redraft leagues, and an even slighter advantage in dynasty, but I don't see a reason to take Crabtree over Bryant simply based on such limited NFL experience or success. For example a year ago I brought up a trade here on the forum I made in a local league, where basically I traded the "proven" Donnie Avery and a rookie draft pick for the "unproven" Jeremy Maclin, and people thought I made a terrible deal, yet it has seemed to work out fine for me, it was a calculated risk that has worked out thus far.

I was trying not to post for awhile but there was something very miscommunicated here in your response that just compelled me to respond.

Donnie Avery, Robiskie, and Heyward Bey arent really productive..so even though they are known, their level of production is not known to be high...therefore the risk you took when trading for Maclin was well worth it. Bryant over Crabtree is not - unless you dont think very highly of Crabtree for some reason (in which case his stats arent in your favor) its way too much expectation, and its not humbled AT ALL....I dont mind people liking Dex, but to me its just a poor position to put yourself, and your team in expectation wise if you are drafting him in the 2nd/3rd round of a startup in front of guys like Wayne-Sidney-Maclin-etc...thats not realistic, thats risky, and very poor decision making in my opinion. People who really like Dez Bryant shouldnt realistically be able to choose between the two even if they are that high on Dez because definitively rating him higher than Crabtree would mean...
1) You would have to ignore Witten, Miles, and their RB's
2) You would have to assume his chemistry with Romo
3) You would have to assume his work ethic and communication skills
4) You would have to think either
a) Crabtree wouldnt be productive (which isnt supported by facts) or b) Crabtree would do very well but Bryant would produce more regardless

As good as he may be thats still a pretty hefty expectation for someone who hasnt stepped on the field yet. So many people live in a ideal fantasy world where everything is perfect..when its not. To say Crabtree will be better doesnt take much evidence...just point at the direction he, and his team is going, and how he has interacted with that team with less communication, and less chemistry, you can assume with not much risk, that he will improve on those numbers...thats a much better risk than one based on no sample.

Its good to take risks, if this were a rookie draft and people were taking him at 1 thats different...but 2nd/3rd round in startup is WAY too high, dont care how talented the guy is - you are assuming success, and thats unrealistic, and unsupported at this point. It COULD pay off, but its not a safe bet and in 2nd/3rd round...I want safer bets there.

I would take Dez Bryant over Desean Jackson though

I think we agree on some points here, notably that Dez is going too high in startup drafts and its a huge risk to take him over more established talent etc. no problem there. I'm just saying that its not like we've seen a ton of NFL experience from Crabtree in relation to Dez Bryant. Crabtree obviously has played in more NFL games, but they both are just starting their first NFL training camp, its not like there is a huge gap between them right now, that's all. But yes, I give a small advantage to Crabtree right now.

Lets move to baseball for a moment for a comparison, last season Red Sox pitcher Clay bucholtz was considered by many as the best pitching prospect in baseball, and made it to the majors with some success last year, he even had a no-hitter, but it wasn't a huge sample though, as he didn't play a full MLB season. This year the top Pitching prospect in MLB was Stephen Strasburg who just joined the majors this past week. If you were doing a dynasty MLB startup draft this spring, conventional thinking may tell you to draft Bucholtz over Strasburg due to the better MLB track record, but you wouldn't be faulted or necessarily wrong for taking a shot on Strasburg before Bucholtz would you?

You are taking a concept and applying it to a different situation, and sport where naturally the dynamics are different. All of that is irrelevant...nothing is 100%, 100% of the time....thats why this comes down to ODDS....all Im saying is that the intangibles of Crabtree's situation is much more known, and his odds of producing at a high level are very good - he produced well WITHOUT A TRAINING CAMP, WITHOUT ANY EXPERIENCE, with LITTLE COACHING...its a pretty safe bet that he will AT LEAST continue on the pace he was on last season (68 catches - 900 yards), and just knowing the facts I would even say its safe to say he may improve slighty on those numbers - if he gets .5 more catches per game at 13 ypc, Crabs would be around 76 catches and 1000 yards (and thats asuming the ypc doesnt increase) - are you REALLY going to BET that Dez Bryant without knowing the chemistry, and dynamics of the situation is going to be BETTER than that? Thats pretty lofty for a rookie who hasnt stepped on the field. Its not impossible for him to perform at a 2nd/3rd round level....but its too risky for my taste in a startup AT THIS POINT.

Thats not a risk Im willing to take...because there are PLENTY of talented WR's in the NFL....but if you arent on the same page with your QB (Roy Williams, Mike Williams), and your work ethic is not at an elite level (Roy Williams, Mike Williams) then it doesnt matter how talented you are....I want to see some of that stuff first before I really have as much confidence in him than I do Crabtree. Like I said...I'll take Bryant over some guys, just not Crabtree, or Sidney Rice.

[lemmi]

Lets move to baseball for a moment for a comparison, last season Red Sox pitcher Clay bucholtz was considered by many as the best pitching prospect in baseball, and made it to the majors with some success last year, he even had a no-hitter, but it wasn't a huge sample though, as he didn't play a full MLB season. This year the top Pitching prospect in MLB was Stephen Strasburg who just joined the majors this past week. If you were doing a dynasty MLB startup draft this spring, conventional thinking may tell you to draft Bucholtz over Strasburg due to the better MLB track record, but you wouldn't be faulted or necessarily wrong for taking a shot on Strasburg before Bucholtz would you?

Strasburg is the type of guy that comes around once ever 1 or 2 decades. We're not gonna see another one like him for a long time.
Bucholtz, while a nice pitcher/prospect in his own right, was never held in the same regard as Strasburg.

The difference is - Dez isn't considered to be a generational talent making him more valuable than Crabtree in a start-up.
Do they both have top 5-10 potential? I'd say probably, but I'd like to see Dez perform against NFL CB's every Sunday before saying definitely and/or drafting him ahead of Crabtree in a start-up for that matter.

Plus, like someone posted earlier, this all until next year when the next bumper crop of WR's has all of us drooling once again

[49ersFaithful80]

49whiners suck, id take Dez.

haha ok real question, crabtree or darrius heyward-bust?

[skip]

haha ok real question, crabtree or darrius heyward-bust?

Hello, left field. It's nice to meet you. We now return you to our regularly scheduled program.

[BradyT]

49whiners suck, id take Dez.

Well.. let me put it this way:

Look at your Nickname.. and then you know who really sucks...

[skip]

Look at your Nickname.. and then you know who really sucks...

This from the guy who chose his screen name after Brady Quinn...

[BradyT]

Look at your Nickname.. and then you know who really sucks...

This from the guy who chose his screen name after Brady Quinn...

10 times better than Al "I´m an old morron" Davis...

[kris_kapsner]

This is a really close call in my opinion and I have the two of them very close in my personal rankings.

For the record, I just offered Colston, Keller, future 2nd and future 3rd combined ALL for Dez Bryant and was turned down. So, some people are probably too high on a rookie WR, no matter how talented, since so many bust, even the highly touted ones like Bryant.

I view Bryant as a top 5 WR talent. However, I also view Crabtree the same way. And, it wouldn't surprise me to see both of them in the top 5 rankings in the next couple of years.

When comparing Bryant's and Crabtree's physical ability for the WR position, I have to give the edge, by the slightest of margins, to Bryant. He's just a little bigger, but not by much. Speed isn't a huge separator for the two either. Hands like glue for both of them and they can both run after the catch with the best of them.

I don't give much of a boost one way or another based on situation. Romo is awesome and the Cowboys are very good. But, the 49ers are heading in the right way. A lot can change over the next 12+ years these guys will be in the league. Saying one will have a better career than the other based on current situation is a little short sited in my opinion.

Though Crabtree's numbers last year were beyond impressive to me for a guy who never practiced with the team until the week he was starting mid way through the season. Extrapolate his numbers over a 16 game season and he had 70 catches for 909 yards and 3 TDs. That is nothing short of amazing considering he never practiced in the off season, missed all of training camp, the preseason, the start of the season and had no report or knowledge of the play book prior to him jumping into the season in week 7. That being said, I think Bryant can do the same thing in the same situation PHYSICALLY. So, I can't say that based on this alone I'd take Bryant. Though, it does give Crabtree a slight edge.

What separates the two for me and gives the edge to Crabtree in this discussion is personality.

Crabtree showed up in shape and ready to play in week 7 right after he signed his contract. And, play he did. I've been given ZERO indication that Bryant would be able to do the same thing in the same situation because of his personality. Bryant himself has said that one of his favorite hobbies is to sleep. He's not a hard worker when it comes to his physical preparation for the game. Hence why he showed up incredibly out of shape for Cowboys camp this Spring. He's been nicked up and/or sick every other practice and now has a soar hammy. That comes from a lack of work ethic that was already talked about prior to the NFL draft.

Because of that, I feel that Crabtree will do everything it takes to be great, while Bryant, though he COULD be great, may or may not have the work ethic required to get there.

I voted Crabtree.