Brandon vs Calvin

[skip]

Obviously the poll is going heavily in favor of Calvin, as I would have expected. Everyone makes it sound like he has a ton of upside and really high ceiling so I would like you to:

1) Post his expected annual production
2) Demonstrate why those numbers can be projected
3) Demonstrate why there is a willingness to hold a player for an unknown number of seasons until he hits that potential while ignoring or considering other players producing superior numbers as lesser options

As the topic is related to Marshall, let's use him as the comparative player.

Thusfar Marshall has outproduced Calvin in two of three seasons and been dead even in the other. So owning Marshall to this point has been the undisputed better option.

Marshall has 3 straight seasons with 100+ receptions (something only 5 WRs have ever done). Calvin's career best is 78.
Marshall is coming off his first double-digit TD season (with Kyle Orton, no less). (interestingly his targets were down by almost 30 while posting nearly identical reception numbers and this total.

I can only assume that owners of Calvin are holding out for some kind of amazing numbers like 100-1500-15. I have a hard time seeing Calvin as a ppr monster. He has yet to hit double-digit catches in a single game. I just think the expectations of his owners are loftier than what is attainable. Even assuming these numbers are remotely conceivable, this wont happen overnight. How long is too long to hold onto the hope that someone like Calvin is a top 3 (or the #1) WR?

[princevincexoxo]

Obviously the poll is going heavily in favor of Calvin, as I would have expected. Everyone makes it sound like he has a ton of upside and really high ceiling so I would like you to:

1) Post his expected annual production
2) Demonstrate why those numbers can be projected
3) Demonstrate why there is a willingness to hold a player for an unknown number of seasons until he hits that potential while ignoring or considering other players producing superior numbers as lesser options

As the topic is related to Marshall, let's use him as the comparative player.

Thusfar Marshall has outproduced Calvin in two of three seasons and been dead even in the other. So owning Marshall to this point has been the undisputed better option.

Marshall has 3 straight seasons with 100+ receptions (something only 5 WRs have ever done). Calvin's career best is 78.
Marshall is coming off his first double-digit TD season (with Kyle Orton, no less). (interestingly his targets were down by almost 30 while posting nearly identical reception numbers and this total.

I can only assume that owners of Calvin are holding out for some kind of amazing numbers like 100-1500-15. I have a hard time seeing Calvin as a ppr monster. He has yet to hit double-digit catches in a single game. I just think the expectations of his owners are loftier than what is attainable. Even assuming these numbers are remotely conceivable, this wont happen overnight. How long is too long to hold onto the hope that someone like Calvin is a top 3 (or the #1) WR?

Everything stated above. It just doesnt make sense. People have spent 3 years waiting for Calvin to be better than Marshall...thats 3 years you have LOST value waiting for Calvin to breakout/Marshall to plummet. Even though owning Marshall had its risk...the truth of the matter is he is, and has been more productive for 3 years. Even if Calvin does end up having one better year than Marshall at some point, the fact is that it that for 3 years people had (and still have) an opportunity to take advantage of the disparity between the perceived fantasy value and the actual production.

HOWEVER......

With that said....Marshall has need an 18 catch and a 21 catch game to get to 104 catches, and 101 catches....so I do expect those reception numbers to come down to earth a bit, but I also think with his catch total going down his yardage total will increase a little. Thus putting them at about the same level with Marshall having an edge.

[skip]

I am not trying to slam Calvin here, just to try to shed some light on perception vs. reality. He is in my top 5 rated WRs...and in my ratings earlier this year I had him ahead of Marshall.

We are still waiting for Calvin to reach a level on a steady basis of what Marshall has already demonstrated he is capable of doing, much less the lofty expectations.

[lemmi]

I'd put calvins ceiling at 5-10% higher than his '08 stats (78-1331-12td).
those were put up with the likes of kitna, orlovsky and mcmahon (iirc) at qb. A young pretty poised qb with a big arm and the skys the limit.
marshall, while talented will be in his 1st year on a new team (not usually a good thing). Not to mention a run first team at that.

[princevincexoxo]

marshall, while talented will be in his 1st year on a new team (not usually a good thing).

Explain the significance of this.."not usually a good thing" statement...

[rkrazy]

Obviously the poll is going heavily in favor of Calvin, as I would have expected. Everyone makes it sound like he has a ton of upside and really high ceiling so I would like you to:

1) Post his expected annual production
2) Demonstrate why those numbers can be projected
3) Demonstrate why there is a willingness to hold a player for an unknown number of seasons until he hits that potential while ignoring or considering other players producing superior numbers as lesser options

As the topic is related to Marshall, let's use him as the comparative player.

Thusfar Marshall has outproduced Calvin in two of three seasons and been dead even in the other. So owning Marshall to this point has been the undisputed better option.

Marshall has 3 straight seasons with 100+ receptions (something only 5 WRs have ever done). Calvin's career best is 78.
Marshall is coming off his first double-digit TD season (with Kyle Orton, no less). (interestingly his targets were down by almost 30 while posting nearly identical reception numbers and this total.

I can only assume that owners of Calvin are holding out for some kind of amazing numbers like 100-1500-15. I have a hard time seeing Calvin as a ppr monster. He has yet to hit double-digit catches in a single game. I just think the expectations of his owners are loftier than what is attainable. Even assuming these numbers are remotely conceivable, this wont happen overnight. How long is too long to hold onto the hope that someone like Calvin is a top 3 (or the #1) WR?

Ready for my impersonation of Vince (minus all the CAPS and funny faces)... ok a guy can have one funny face.

For the record I don't own Calvin in any league. His draft position has always been higher than I was willing to spend. I don't believe Calvin will post 100/1500/15 type numbers, but if we extrapolate known data from 2009 to get an average over 16 games then last seasons statistics are closer.

Remove the highest and lowest statistical weeks from both players to eliminate Calvin's week 5 (1/2/0) fluke in which he was injured early and did not return. This then removes Marshall's 21/200/2 week 14...I think its safe to assume that can't be expected annually. Also remove weeks that they did not play - Calvin (2 - knee) would then have 12 games and BM (1 - suspended) would have 13 games worth of data.

Calvin ends up with 79/1095/5 (rounded up)
BM ends up with 94/1103/10 (rounded up)

The TDs and 15 extra receptions give BM a 2.86 ppg advantage. Scoring calculation based on ppr, 0.1 pts/rec yd and 6 pts/TD. Big advantage BM especially considering draft position. A lot of folks were down on BM for off field activity and new QB/coach. Calvin was noted as a sure fire can't miss after his big 2008 numbers with a slew of bad QBs.

Consider the surrounding talent. Stafford played in only 10 games (not sure how Calvin did in those games). Orton started 15 but played in all 16 after Chris Simms forgettable 1st half the week after Orton suffered a sprained ankle. Denver had 21 passing TDs, almost 50% to Marshall (10 TD). Detroit had 16 passing TDs, less than 33% to Calvin (5 TD). Denver had a better ground game, better secondary passing options and a better offensive line. When Calvin did play opposing defenses frequently employed double or triple coverage daring Detroit to force it to Calvin or win with other options.

Fast forward to this year...Marshall goes to a more run oriented offense. In 2009 Denver passed the ball 55.9% of the time, while Miami passed only 51.7% of their plays. How often Miami passes in 2010 is a total unknown. We can only assume they will throw more with the maturing Henne and his new toy. Plus he goes to a division where he faces Revis 2x per year. Detroit improves offensively with the additions of Best, Scheffler, Burleson and Pettigrew back from injury. Then of course I am assuming Stafford improves in year 2.

If I had to provide an expectation for Calvin this year I would say comparable numbers to 2008 are not out of the question....80/1300/10 is a very real possibility (health dependent). And I believe those numbers are repeatable as Detroit and Stafford improve. Comparably I expect Marshall's reception total to drop a little but his yardage and TD totals to remain flat. Pretty even value with both players. You can't go wrong with either as your dynasty WR1 IMO. But Calvin gets the perceived value edge, which therefore increases his trade value.

Whew! How do you do it Vince?

[Steelersfan]

You have made some very good points Skip...I'm just happy to have both in the I...

[princevincexoxo]

Obviously the poll is going heavily in favor of Calvin, as I would have expected. Everyone makes it sound like he has a ton of upside and really high ceiling so I would like you to:

1) Post his expected annual production
2) Demonstrate why those numbers can be projected
3) Demonstrate why there is a willingness to hold a player for an unknown number of seasons until he hits that potential while ignoring or considering other players producing superior numbers as lesser options

As the topic is related to Marshall, let's use him as the comparative player.

Thusfar Marshall has outproduced Calvin in two of three seasons and been dead even in the other. So owning Marshall to this point has been the undisputed better option.

Marshall has 3 straight seasons with 100+ receptions (something only 5 WRs have ever done). Calvin's career best is 78.
Marshall is coming off his first double-digit TD season (with Kyle Orton, no less). (interestingly his targets were down by almost 30 while posting nearly identical reception numbers and this total.

I can only assume that owners of Calvin are holding out for some kind of amazing numbers like 100-1500-15. I have a hard time seeing Calvin as a ppr monster. He has yet to hit double-digit catches in a single game. I just think the expectations of his owners are loftier than what is attainable. Even assuming these numbers are remotely conceivable, this wont happen overnight. How long is too long to hold onto the hope that someone like Calvin is a top 3 (or the #1) WR?

Ready for my impersonation of Vince (minus all the CAPS and funny faces)... ok a guy can have one funny face.

For the record I don't own Calvin in any league. His draft position has always been higher than I was willing to spend. I don't believe Calvin will post 100/1500/15 type numbers, but if we extrapolate known data from 2009 to get an average over 16 games then last seasons statistics are closer.

Remove the highest and lowest statistical weeks from both players to eliminate Calvin's week 5 (1/2/0) fluke in which he was injured early and did not return. This then removes Marshall's 21/200/2 week 14...I think its safe to assume that can't be expected annually. Also remove weeks that they did not play - Calvin (2 - knee) would then have 12 games and BM (1 - suspended) would have 13 games worth of data.

Calvin ends up with 79/1095/5 (rounded up)
BM ends up with 94/1103/10 (rounded up)

The TDs and 15 extra receptions give BM a 2.86 ppg advantage. Scoring calculation based on ppr, 0.1 pts/rec yd and 6 pts/TD. Big advantage BM especially considering draft position. A lot of folks were down on BM for off field activity and new QB/coach. Calvin was noted as a sure fire can't miss after his big 2008 numbers with a slew of bad QBs.

Consider the surrounding talent. Stafford played in only 10 games (not sure how Calvin did in those games). Orton started 15 but played in all 16 after Chris Simms forgettable 1st half the week after Orton suffered a sprained ankle. Denver had 21 passing TDs, almost 50% to Marshall (10 TD). Detroit had 16 passing TDs, less than 33% to Calvin (5 TD). Denver had a better ground game, better secondary passing options and a better offensive line. When Calvin did play opposing defenses frequently employed double or triple coverage daring Detroit to force it to Calvin or win with other options.

Fast forward to this year...Marshall goes to a more run oriented offense. In 2009 Denver passed the ball 55.9% of the time, while Miami passed only 51.7% of their plays. How often Miami passes in 2010 is a total unknown. We can only assume they will throw more with the maturing Henne and his new toy. Plus he goes to a division where he faces Revis 2x per year. Detroit improves offensively with the additions of Best, Scheffler, Burleson and Pettigrew back from injury. Then of course I am assuming Stafford improves in year 2.

If I had to provide an expectation for Calvin this year I would say comparable numbers to 2008 are not out of the question....80/1300/10 is a very real possibility (health dependent). And I believe those numbers are repeatable as Detroit and Stafford improve. Comparably I expect Marshall's reception total to drop a little but his yardage and TD totals to remain flat. Pretty even value with both players. You can't go wrong with either as your dynasty WR1 IMO. But Calvin gets the perceived value edge, which therefore increases his trade value.

Whew! How do you do it Vince?

I have a knack for just taking the ball and running with it

[kris_kapsner]

The difference is Marshall has been involved in drive by shootings, resulting in the death of an NFL player, been thrown through a TV, been a cry baby about his contract to the point where he was punting the ball away from a ball boy just to make a point that he didn't want to be there...

Calvin is a class act who will be a stud for the long run that won't give you suspension worries... or dare I say Chris Henry-like off field issues.

If the stats are even close, I'll take the guy who A) has more physical ability and B) is not going to worry me about where his head is.

That would be Calvin Johnson and it isn't even close when you factor in the whole picture.

[princevincexoxo]

The difference is Marshall has been involved in drive by shootings, resulting in the death of an NFL player, been thrown through a TV, been a cry baby about his contract to the point where he was punting the ball away from a ball boy just to make a point that he didn't want to be there...

Calvin is a class act who will be a stud for the long run that won't give you suspension worries... or dare I say Chris Henry-like off field issues.

If the stats are even close, I'll take the guy who A) has more physical ability and B) is not going to worry me about where his head is.

That would be Calvin Johnson and it isn't even close when you factor in the whole picture.

In theory this soudns great Kris...but the reality is....for 3 years he has been devalued because of that and it has proven to be very costly...at what point do you begin to take advantage of that? Its just like anything else in fantasy football you asses the risk and reward and take advantage of it accordingly. The longer you wait for something to happen, the more convinced you become that eventually it WILL HAPPEN...and it might happen eventually...but how much do you sacrifice along the way? And is it worth it?

In my opinion...it isnt.

[SpaderDude]

I can only assume that owners of Calvin are holding out for some kind of amazing numbers like 100-1500-15. I have a hard time seeing Calvin as a ppr monster. He has yet to hit double-digit catches in a single game. I just think the expectations of his owners are loftier than what is attainable. Even assuming these numbers are remotely conceivable, this wont happen overnight. How long is too long to hold onto the hope that someone like Calvin is a top 3 (or the #1) WR?

I own both in my main league and IMO it's very close, but I voted for Calvin for dynasty purposes.

A)not gonna get suspended
B)younger
C)proved he can put up great numbers w/ mediocre talent at QB when healthy.
D) IMO -a better natural talent

Just for the record, in 2008 when he put up 78/1331, 12 TD's, it was good enough to be 3rd among WR (behind only Andre and Larry) in a non-ppr-league that I'm in (standard scoring else-where). So, I'm sure for many fantasy owners, they have not had to wait for Calvin to show he could be a top 3 talent as the post above suggests, at least in non-ppr leagues.

My league does not award big points for long TD's, but that would give Calvin a slight edge as well.

I also said that I could see many voting for Marshall based on production alone, but there are definitely some anomalies that have already been discussed. I think it makes a big difference PPR versus Not.

[pvballer3915]

Ive always like Marshall but CJ is just in another league. the kid is unbelievable. Once his team gets settled down and starts playing, hell be back at the top of fantasy boards

[kris_kapsner]

The difference is Marshall has been involved in drive by shootings, resulting in the death of an NFL player, been thrown through a TV, been a cry baby about his contract to the point where he was punting the ball away from a ball boy just to make a point that he didn't want to be there...

Calvin is a class act who will be a stud for the long run that won't give you suspension worries... or dare I say Chris Henry-like off field issues.

If the stats are even close, I'll take the guy who A) has more physical ability and B) is not going to worry me about where his head is.

That would be Calvin Johnson and it isn't even close when you factor in the whole picture.

In theory this soudns great Kris...but the reality is....for 3 years he has been devalued because of that and it has proven to be very costly...at what point do you begin to take advantage of that? Its just like anything else in fantasy football you asses the risk and reward and take advantage of it accordingly. The longer you wait for something to happen, the more convinced you become that eventually it WILL HAPPEN...and it might happen eventually...but how much do you sacrifice along the way? And is it worth it?

In my opinion...it isnt.

Ok, since just watching the players isn't enough to convince you that Calvin is the supreme WR to have compared to Marshall, I'll try to battle this one with stats.

Brandon Marshall has had one more year in the league than Calvin. So, when Marshall was hitting his stride Calvin was a rookie. Keep that in mind when you are trying to site Calvin's shorter length of success.

If you compare rookie years by the numbers:
Marshall: 20 catches, 309 yards, 2 TDs
Calvin: 48/756/4

So, Calvin doubled Marshall's rookie stats or more in every category. And, unlike Marshall, Calvin was actually fantasy relevant his rookie year. Calvin's numbers weren't huge. But, they were good enough for bye week or injury fill in while Marshall's were not.

2007 WRs that finished ahead of Marshall in my PPR league: Fitzgerald, Houshmandzadeh, Ochocinco, Colston, Owens, Wayne, Welker, Randy Moss, Braylon Edwards

WR10 finish in 2007 for Marshall (Calvin's rookie year)


Fast forward one year to Calvin's 2nd year in 2008 and put them side by side:
Marshall: 104/1,265/6
Calvin: 78/1,331/12

Calvin finished WR3 that year in my PPR league and Marshall finished WR8.

2009 Calvin had a rookie QB who didn't even play the whole season. And, Calvin got dinged up with injuries. Marshall finished WR7 in my league and Calvin finished WR26.

I'll give to you that Calvin had a rough year. Not terrible, but rough considering his talent level.

However, Marshall has never finished better than WR7 in my league. Calvin finished top 3 behind only Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald in just his 2nd season with 3 different starting QBs throwing to him. The separation between the two WRs is even greater in nonPPR leagues since that year Calvin DOUBLED Marshall's TDs. To say that you are still waiting for Calvin to arrive is just looking through cracked lenses in my opinion. Calvin HAS arrived. Calvin has already shown himself to be able to dominate even without a decent surrounding cast. A player has one season where he gets a little nicked up and is also relying on a rookie QB to throw to him and doesn't put up elite numbers and people are downgrading him? Simply amazing to me.

For discussion purposes, I can see "discussing" this topic. However, like discussing the history of the Titanic, the outcome is already ordained before the topic begins. Calvin is flat out the better WR to own and it isn't even close, for so many reasons. But, since people seemed to be more interested in the numbers, I thought I'd lay them out above. Most owners here play in 12 team leagues. Marshall finished in the bottom half of WR1's for a 12 team league in ALL of his "elite" seasons while Calvin has already finished top 3. The reality is that Marshall is a good WR while Calvin is a great one.

[SpaderDude]

The other thing that many are overlooking here is... Can we really expect Marshall to catch 100+ balls in Miami? I'm not so sure. I'd love him to as an owner, but my expectations are tempered a bit.

One other tid-bit for stat-mungers...

Marshall's reception average has declined every year. He is more of a possession receiver, where as Calvin has the ability to break the big play every play. Sure Brandon has broken some, but he is a bit more one dimentional.

2006- 15.5
2007- 13.0
2008- 12.2
2009- 11.1

Calvin's yards per reception has been significantly higher during the course of his career (15.9 to 12.3), so he should out-produce Marshall for yardage if we can assume their reception totals will be closer due to Marshall's new home. Even if the reception totals remain the same, yardage totals will be nearly identical due to the discrepancy of their average per reception history. IMO Marshall has reached his ceiling, Calvin's can only rise.

[skip]

Marshall finished in the bottom half of WR1's for a 12 team league in ALL of his "elite" seasons while Calvin has already finished top 3. The reality is that Marshall is a good WR while Calvin is a great one.

Scoring system variations have to be taken into consideration here. The DLF I which uses the WCOFF scoring (basically a standard ppr league) Marshall has been the #4 WR in each of the last two seasons - including ahead of Calvin in 2008.