George Pickens, where did we go wrong?

[Cameron Giles]

When I said at best 3rd option I was referring to Johnson and Harris. With our $12million offensive line, I think Harris may even surpass Johnson as Trubs scrambles for his life and checks down/goes safety valve to Harris. I appreciate your super optimistic scenario laid out, but there are lot of if's and could's and chances in there. As a fan, I hope you're right. I'm just not willing to bet on it in fantasy or in the sports books.

Everything you said could be true. But I don't really put stock into it based on preseason games against scrubs and vanilla defensive packages. Even his "lighting it up at camp" against our weak starting secondary isn't all that impressive to me tbh.

I think one thing to consider is that Harris' targets were inflated because of Big Ben's decline and noodle arm. The Steelers have so much talent at receiver, that I'd be surprised if Harris is still pushing close to 100 targets like he did last season.

I don't really think the Steelers drafted Pickens to be a WR3. Hell, even Claypool has back to back 100+ target seasons.

[Eight7Seven]

I'd personally sell for a 23' 1st, 2nd, 3rd so long as it wasn't to one of the top teams in the league where you knew your picks would likely be very late; but I guess I'm alone on that boat lol. He's still at best the third option on a team with no real starting QB and what's looking to be one of the worst offensive lines in football. And Claypool and Freiermuth will still get their touches as well. I'm not saying it's a 100% no thought needed auto accept of a trade, but I would take that cash out myself. I find it hard to believe you'd be getting a better offer than that come next off-season, especially as the hype for the 2023 class grows, so the main reason to decline would be if you are really all in on him for the long haul IMO. Steeler fan's opinion to be taken with a few grains of salt...

Yeah resonate with a lot of the stuff you're saying here. I'm genuinely shocked that so many people would turn down a first, second and a third in next year's draft for someone they took in the late first/early second. And this is not because I'm some 2023 truther, I'm saying this for any draft. I don't think there's a single player I've ever taken near the 1st round turn in a draft that I'd have declined an offer of a 1st/2nd/3rd for (Even if I suspected they would be late picks) If I received it this early in the process. Though I'm certain if I had made that trade with some guys I've taken I would have regretted it a time or two. I just looked back at the rookie drafts in my two dynasty leagues over the last three years to see what kind of value I'd gotten in the late first or anywhere in the second round.

2020: Justin Herbert (1.11) & Michael Pittman Jr. (2.04) - AJ Dillion (2.06), Denzel Mims (2.07) & Jordan Love (2.09)

2021 late 1st or 2nd: Terrace Marshall (2.07), Kenneth Gainwell (2.09) & Davis Mills (2.12) - Jaylen Waddle (1.12) & Kadarius Toney (2.11)

2022 late 1st or second: David Bell (2.07) Malik Willis (2.08) - George Pickens (1.12), James Cook (2..02) & Devin Lloyd ILB (2.12, top defensive player on my board and the second to go on the draft)

Later picks are super valuable. And there's always the chance when you trade for a future pick that it winds up much better than you projected. The second set of picks are in an IDP league, but usually only 1-2 Defensive players go in the second round so you don't have to adjust much.

[remedy29]

I'd personally sell for a 23' 1st, 2nd, 3rd so long as it wasn't to one of the top teams in the league where you knew your picks would likely be very late; but I guess I'm alone on that boat lol. He's still at best the third option on a team with no real starting QB and what's looking to be one of the worst offensive lines in football. And Claypool and Freiermuth will still get their touches as well. I'm not saying it's a 100% no thought needed auto accept of a trade, but I would take that cash out myself. I find it hard to believe you'd be getting a better offer than that come next off-season, especially as the hype for the 2023 class grows, so the main reason to decline would be if you are really all in on him for the long haul IMO. Steeler fan's opinion to be taken with a few grains of salt...

Yeah resonate with a lot of the stuff you're saying here. I'm genuinely shocked that so many people would turn down a first, second and a third in next year's draft for someone they took in the late first/early second. And this is not because I'm some 2023 truther, I'm saying this for any draft. I don't think there's a single player I've ever taken near the 1st round turn in a draft that I'd have declined an offer of a 1st/2nd/3rd for (Even if I suspected they would be late picks) If I received it this early in the process. Though I'm certain if I had made that trade with some guys I've taken I would have regretted it a time or two. I just looked back at the rookie drafts in my two dynasty leagues over the last three years to see what kind of value I'd gotten in the late first or anywhere in the second round.

2020: Justin Herbert (1.11) & Michael Pittman Jr. (2.04) - AJ Dillion (2.06), Denzel Mims (2.07) & Jordan Love (2.09)

2021 late 1st or 2nd: Terrace Marshall (2.07), Kenneth Gainwell (2.09) & Davis Mills (2.12) - Jaylen Waddle (1.12) & Kadarius Toney (2.11)

2022 late 1st or second: David Bell (2.07) Malik Willis (2.08) - George Pickens (1.12), James Cook (2..02) & Devin Lloyd ILB (2.12, top defensive player on my board and the second to go on the draft)

Later picks are super valuable. And there's always the chance when you trade for a future pick that it winds up much better than you projected. The second set of picks are in an IDP league, but usually only 1-2 Defensive players go in the second round so you don't have to adjust much.

A little pet peeve of mine;
This analysis is combining past value with current value. Pickens value as of today, in rookie drafts is a middle 1st, not a late 1st/early 2nd. So the analysis should be done with a middle 1st compared with the draft picks.

Personally, trading Pickens for the future 1st depends on team situation and personal choice, i dont see it as a must trade. If you need to build your team, then the 2nd and 3rd have more value than on a good team. On a good team, id mostly be judging the trade of Pickens for next years 1st, which is likely to be middle to late (nobody would offer up a projected early 1st on a bad team plus picks for a player).

[dynastyninja]

A 1st, 2nd, and 3rd wouldn't really move the needle for me if I drafted Pickens. Anyone who drafted him probably likes him as a prospect. A 2nd and 3rd aren't that great of an incentive to move on from him after all signs so far have been positive.

[CGW]

A 1st, 2nd, and 3rd wouldn't really move the needle for me if I drafted Pickens. Anyone who drafted him probably likes him as a prospect. A 2nd and 3rd aren't that great of an incentive to move on from him after all signs so far have been positive.

Agreed, unless it's a sure bet early 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in 12tm+ SF. Then I'm considering it as RBs and QBs are much more valuable in that format.

[Menace2010]

Can someone elaborate on why Claypool is immediately being cast aside. He had a legit rookie season, and produced similarly in year 2 with noodle arm Ben just didn't score as many TDs (no surprise, too efficient year 1, inefficient year 2, likely somewhere between in year 3). Shouldn't we be potentially getting geared up for a year 3 breakout? I think shifting to the slot is 3-wide sets from time-to-time may actually help him produce more consistently than the Pickens X receiver role...

Not a film guy, other than eye test lol, so would welcome input. This is obviously directly relevant to Pickens and his ability to produce.

[dustyroads]

Can someone elaborate on why Claypool is immediately being cast aside. He had a legit rookie season, and produced similarly in year 2 with noodle arm Ben just didn't score as many TDs (no surprise, too efficient year 1, inefficient year 2, likely somewhere between in year 3). Shouldn't we be potentially getting geared up for a year 3 breakout? I think shifting to the slot is 3-wide sets from time-to-time may actually help him produce more consistently than the Pickens X receiver role...

Not a film guy, other than eye test lol, so would welcome input. This is obviously directly relevant to Pickens and his ability to produce.

Because he makes tiktoks, did a stupid celebration on the field in a crucial situation last year, and people like shiny new toys lol. We are all guessing here, but people are legit positing Pickens is already 1B on the team and calling that notion blind optimism is an understatement. Could he be the next Jefferson or Chase? Sure. But the odds are against that outcome, and people will rationalize out the wazoo to make it seem like a certainty rather than just a possibility.

We just need football to start so people can stop making outrageous claims, and can instead start moving the goal posts so their claims don't seem so outrageous after the facts arrive

[Anteaters]

Can someone elaborate on why Claypool is immediately being cast aside.

I as a fantasy manager am so quick to cast aside Claypool as a target machine in Pittsburgh because the GM+Coach decided to spend 2nd and 4th round picks on WRs. Of all the positions the Steelers could have chosen (OL anyone?) the decision makers decided they needed to improve at WR.

That immediately made Claypool the odd man out. And after Pickens' performance in preseason, it's looking even more likely that Pickens is going to get a chance to prove himself early in the season. If Pickens looks as good in season as he did in preseason, Claypool will end up being 5th on targets, which means he's an afterthought for most fantasy leagues.

[ericanadian]

Can someone elaborate on why Claypool is immediately being cast aside.

I as a fantasy manager am so quick to cast aside Claypool as a target machine in Pittsburgh because the GM+Coach decided to spend 2nd and 4th round picks on WRs. Of all the positions the Steelers could have chosen (OL anyone?) the decision makers decided they needed to improve at WR.

That immediately made Claypool the odd man out. And after Pickens' performance in preseason, it's looking even more likely that Pickens is going to get a chance to prove himself early in the season. If Pickens looks as good in season as he did in preseason, Claypool will end up being 5th on targets, which means he's an afterthought for most fantasy leagues.

They lost their slot receiver with Juju going to KC (probably the reason for the 4th) and Diontae was on the last year of his deal at the time of the draft, so it would make some sense to draft his replacement (Pickens) and could have nothing at all to do with Claypool.

[Jigga94]

Can someone elaborate on why Claypool is immediately being cast aside.

I as a fantasy manager am so quick to cast aside Claypool as a target machine in Pittsburgh because the GM+Coach decided to spend 2nd and 4th round picks on WRs. Of all the positions the Steelers could have chosen (OL anyone?) the decision makers decided they needed to improve at WR.

That immediately made Claypool the odd man out. And after Pickens' performance in preseason, it's looking even more likely that Pickens is going to get a chance to prove himself early in the season. If Pickens looks as good in season as he did in preseason, Claypool will end up being 5th on targets, which means he's an afterthought for most fantasy leagues.

They lost their slot receiver with Juju going to KC (probably the reason for the 4th) and Diontae was on the last year of his deal at the time of the draft, so it would make some sense to draft his replacement (Pickens) and could have nothing at all to do with Claypool.

Right, this is what the Steelers do every year. Personally, I just think Pickens > Claypool talent wise. I wasn't very high on Claypool coming out. He has had the one blow up game and then been fairly quiet. Sure, you can blame Ben, but I also dont think Pickett/Trubisky are going to come in and light it up either

[stpilots98]

I as a fantasy manager am so quick to cast aside Claypool as a target machine in Pittsburgh because the GM+Coach decided to spend 2nd and 4th round picks on WRs. Of all the positions the Steelers could have chosen (OL anyone?) the decision makers decided they needed to improve at WR.

That immediately made Claypool the odd man out. And after Pickens' performance in preseason, it's looking even more likely that Pickens is going to get a chance to prove himself early in the season. If Pickens looks as good in season as he did in preseason, Claypool will end up being 5th on targets, which means he's an afterthought for most fantasy leagues.

They lost their slot receiver with Juju going to KC (probably the reason for the 4th) and Diontae was on the last year of his deal at the time of the draft, so it would make some sense to draft his replacement (Pickens) and could have nothing at all to do with Claypool.

Right, this is what the Steelers do every year. Personally, I just think Pickens > Claypool talent wise. I wasn't very high on Claypool coming out. He has had the one blow up game and then been fairly quiet. Sure, you can blame Ben, but I also dont think Pickett/Trubisky are going to come in and light it up either

Agree. Talent wise, they aren’t on the same level.

[Menace2010]

They lost their slot receiver with Juju going to KC (probably the reason for the 4th) and Diontae was on the last year of his deal at the time of the draft, so it would make some sense to draft his replacement (Pickens) and could have nothing at all to do with Claypool.

Right, this is what the Steelers do every year. Personally, I just think Pickens > Claypool talent wise. I wasn't very high on Claypool coming out. He has had the one blow up game and then been fairly quiet. Sure, you can blame Ben, but I also dont think Pickett/Trubisky are going to come in and light it up either

Agree. Talent wise, they aren’t on the same level.

Am looking for a bit more than "Pickens is more talented." I've seen Claypool "Moss" defenders on an NFL field, two years in a row now. Hasn't put it all together, but 800+ yards two years in a row is something.

I've seen Pickens light up the SEC at 19 then dissapear for two years (obviously injuries played a big role but I remember him underperforming pre-injury as a sophmore) then beat 4th round rookie Coby Bryant on one deep pass in week 1 of the preseason and get lit up by Tyson Campbell in week 2. Don't recall seeing him at all week 3.

Has anyone done or seen any film that can walk me through why the Steelers early/mid 2nd round pick from 2020 is immediately replaced by their early/mid 2nd round pick from 2022? To be clear, I actually like them both... just determing if this is a sell high (Pickens) or buy low (Claypool) opportunity.

[Jigga94]

Right, this is what the Steelers do every year. Personally, I just think Pickens > Claypool talent wise. I wasn't very high on Claypool coming out. He has had the one blow up game and then been fairly quiet. Sure, you can blame Ben, but I also dont think Pickett/Trubisky are going to come in and light it up either

Agree. Talent wise, they aren’t on the same level.

Am looking for a bit more than "Pickens is more talented." I've seen Claypool "Moss" defenders on an NFL field, two years in a row now. Hasn't put it all together, but 800+ yards two years in a row is something.

I've seen Pickens light up the SEC at 19 then dissapear for two years (obviously injuries played a big role but I remember him underperforming pre-injury as a sophmore) then beat 4th round rookie Coby Bryant on one deep pass in week 1 of the preseason and get lit up by Tyson Campbell in week 2. Don't recall seeing him at all week 3.

Has anyone done or seen any film that can walk me through why the Steelers early/mid 2nd round pick from 2020 is immediately replaced by their early/mid 2nd round pick from 2022? To be clear, I actually like them both... just determing if this is a sell high (Pickens) or buy low (Claypool) opportunity.

Pickens likely won't replace Claypool right away. They can coexist (3 WR sets), but eventually I expect Pickens takes over 1B to Diontaes 1A. Pickens is a viewed as a project by some so in redraft you'd probably be better off with Claypool of the 2. But this is dynasty...

Claypool has "mossed" some defenders. But wouldn't you rather him be wide a$$ open all the time like Diontae? Do you think if there are 2 WR that consistently get open, Claypool will still get as many jump ball/deep chances? Pickens looks like a combo of the 2. Plus size, while still having plenty of athleticism.

Yes, Claypool has had 2 decent years to start but we obviously don't know how Pickens will do yet (and no I dont care about his limited preseason) so we can only really compare their college careers. You mentioned Pickens breaking out super early in the SEC. Conversely, Claypool didn't breakout until his senior year at ND. Both 2nd rounders, but I think Pickens could have been a first if not for injury. Pickens is better at mostly everything (route running, hands, quickness, YAC, etc) besides being as big as Claypool and mossing people. Even then, Pickens has made some crazy contested catches. If these guys were in the same class, it's Pickens easily.

[j4pac]

There is something that can be said about a bird in hand…and the actual ability to see a player on a NFL playing field. For instance…Pickens and Olave look like superstars. I understand their hype was low this offseason, behind all of the other good prospect and even guys like Skyy Moore at times. But you can’t ignore how dominant they have looked on the playing field in a NFL uniform. If the goal in dynasty is to have young superstars…those two are really good bets. At some point you have to completely throw out “stock” that is often dictated by mob mentality and slow to change. I’m personality taking those two guys as my top two WRs right now. Im sure London and Williams could be good…but I’m sure that Pickens and Olave ARE good. Why trade either of those guys for a 2023 pick? You get production right away and there are no guarantees from any of the players next year. The only pick I would take is 1.01 because that typically turns into a lottery pick that can be offloaded for a ton of resources…but otherwise, I’ll probably just stay put.

[Cameron Giles]

Am looking for a bit more than "Pickens is more talented." I've seen Claypool "Moss" defenders on an NFL field, two years in a row now. Hasn't put it all together, but 800+ yards two years in a row is something.

I've seen Pickens light up the SEC at 19 then dissapear for two years (obviously injuries played a big role but I remember him underperforming pre-injury as a sophmore) then beat 4th round rookie Coby Bryant on one deep pass in week 1 of the preseason and get lit up by Tyson Campbell in week 2. Don't recall seeing him at all week 3.

Has anyone done or seen any film that can walk me through why the Steelers early/mid 2nd round pick from 2020 is immediately replaced by their early/mid 2nd round pick from 2022? To be clear, I actually like them both... just determing if this is a sell high (Pickens) or buy low (Claypool) opportunity.

I think at bare minimum, we need to accept that this is a plausible outcome for this season. I also think the inverse is true in that Claypool could still be the WR2 on that team by season's end. There's been a lot of talk of him as a post-hype breakout in the traditional Year 3. The Steelers have a young and very talented WR room, so there are a bunch of outcomes going forward.

I think Pickens has more upside as the X in this offense than Claypool. He was one of the best WRs in this class at beating press, plays with a strong level of physicality, and has shown the ability to create separation. He's a smooth, though still improving route runner with good hands. As you mentioned, we saw him breakout in the SEC as an 18-year-old and he was already an elite HS WR prospect in that class too. Going into last season, Pickens was looked at as someone who would be a Top 3-4 rookie prospect. The ACL tear derailed that.