2020 Plant your flag

[thunderTung]

Rodney Anderson says hi

lol yea, banking on the odds of an injury prone player to be healthy because he's been injured every year is really not a good strategy

Dalvin Cook and Leonard Fournette say hi lol. A player is injury prone until they aren’t.

I will gladly take the additional risk and subsequent discount as a result of some injury history. The payoff is worth it. Speaking of strategy, I get mitigating risk, but imo, that just keeps teams in the middle (the worst place to be, gimme an early pick, or a championship).

I would advocate shooting for the bigger booms that can really have a roster impact. I have a background in rehabilitation and trust medical science so buying on an injury dip isn’t that risky to me (but who knows with the Redskins med team).

Anyways, just wanna help my fellow DLFers win some titles and feel like Guice could help, but to each their own.

Dalvin Cook is still regarded as injury prone, he's had 1 healthy season and even towards the end he banged up his shoulder again, why do you think mattison is one of the most valuable handcuffs right now? Fournette, has missed 11 games out 47 in 3 years, 8 of those came from 1 season, i wouldnt argue that Fournette has had injury issues at all since he's been in the league.

Yes there are some examples of people just getting unlucky. But there are alot more examples of players finding no success because they cant stay healthy.

Regardless, my point still stands, if your strategy is "no way they can be injured 3 years in a row" best of luck to you, but its not a good one lol

[Jigga94]

I'm scared to trade for Guice but will probably pull the trigger on a deal for a 2021 1st. I'm of the same opinion you are on buying the dip. The downside being you don't know the ins and outs of these guys personal work ethic and routines. Do they try and take care of their bodies and have been unlucky or are they not taking care of themselves properly? That's the big if.

But come on, people acting like someone isn't injury prone. Heh. You think paying 3 1sts for Kamara is gonna keep him from getting hurt? You think Chubb is gonna be injury free because you pay top dollar? Come on. Doesn't make sense when you look at it like that.

Don't forget how Frank Gore was once injury prone.

Maybe WR's are different but again, look at Julio, Keenan, etc. The Keenan situation is a great reminder of a guy that seems like he worked hard and just had bad luck and turned it around.

PS - I'll add that if you get Guice and he does perform well, he will carry the stigma of an injury prone player so you won't be able to sell him for elite prices unless he is healthy for multiple years, ime.

That last point is why I just don't ever see him cracking the top 10 in dynasty RB ranks. Even if he has a great season, there will likely still be plenty of doubters. I would think he would need 2 great seasons and then you are looking at a guy who's 25 with 2 big injuries, but 2 good years. Maybe then he's a top back but a lot of fresh young RB come in all the time. I'd easily be willing to bet against him ever being a RB1

Strangely, thats not how fantasy football minds work.

Dalvin Cook, Leonard Fournette have both shed the injury stigmata after staying mostly healthy for one year.

DK Metcalf and Deebo Samuel were both injured a ton in college, yet they stayed healthy for their rookie season and no one talks about their injury history anymore.

Keenan Allen was an onjury waiting to happen, and that label disappeared after only one season of health.

Because people logically understand that their injury history couldve just been bad luck; but seeing is believing

A lot of different angles to dissect here, you bring great points though.

For Keenan, I always thought his injuries were of the freak occurrence variety and never wanted to put the prone label on him.

Deebo and DK... A lot of people forget about college vs it happening in the pros. To be honest, I knew DK had some injuries but never heard about Deebos. A lot of people overlook things that happened in college for right or wrong (cough Mixon cough).

To the most relevant guys here, LF and Cook... I don't think LF is a good comparable. He widely gets the injury prone label but has managed a healthy-ish year after missing 8 games last year and only 3 his rookie year. However, he showed wayy more in his first 2 years than Guice has and LF is barelyyyy in that RB1 conversation now that he's going into his 4th year and possibly an unknown situation soon... Cook is a bit different as he has also showed way more and the potential is easily there if he plays a full set of games. I mean he had 1650 yards and 13 TD while missing 2 games last year which is more than his rookie and sophomore seasons combined (also 14 games played total). Those numbers are still way more than Guice can dream of though. Even if Guice put up 1500 yards total this year, he has nothing to show for his first 2 seasons. I don't think many people will pay RB1 numbers for a guy with 1 good season going into his 4th year.

[Johnny Canuck]

Recency bias is big in fantasy. It shouldn’t be in dynasty, but it is. If Guice pops next yr, you can bet that there will be someone in every league that will pay up. He’s the Corey Davis of RBs, there’s a lot of truthers out there.

Personally I’m not in the truther camp. But I do see him as a undervalued prospect, that has a high probability to hit/increase in trade value/profit over the next one to two yrs.

Anyways, to each their own. I’ve done very well buying on the injury dip, so I’ll continue to advocate for that strategy. If your worried about that, just dig into journal articles and informed opinions from med professionals (not beat writers). There’s profit to be made.

[Jigga94]

Recency bias is big in fantasy. It shouldn’t be in dynasty, but it is. If Guice pops next yr, you can bet that there will be someone in every league that will pay up. He’s the Corey Davis of RBs, there’s a lot of truthers out there.

Personally I’m not in the truther camp. But I do see him as a undervalued prospect, that has a high probability to hit/increase in trade value/profit over the next one to two yrs.

Anyways, to each their own. I’ve done very well buying on the injury dip, so I’ll continue to advocate for that strategy. If your worried about that, just dig into journal articles and informed opinions from med professionals (not beat writers). There’s profit to be made.

I'd say we agree on him being a buy and could be a nice swing in value. I don't want to make it seem like he's not even though I'm hammering home the fact that I don't think he will be ever a top 10 RB. However, if he's being held by a truther than he may not be worth it.

[Johnny Canuck]

Recency bias is big in fantasy. It shouldn’t be in dynasty, but it is. If Guice pops next yr, you can bet that there will be someone in every league that will pay up. He’s the Corey Davis of RBs, there’s a lot of truthers out there.

Personally I’m not in the truther camp. But I do see him as a undervalued prospect, that has a high probability to hit/increase in trade value/profit over the next one to two yrs.

Anyways, to each their own. I’ve done very well buying on the injury dip, so I’ll continue to advocate for that strategy. If your worried about that, just dig into journal articles and informed opinions from med professionals (not beat writers). There’s profit to be made.

I'd say we agree on him being a buy and could be a nice swing in value. I don't want to make it seem like he's not even though I'm hammering home the fact that I don't think he will be ever a top 10 RB. However, if he's being held by a truther than he may not be worth it.

A truther likely wouldn’t be looking to buy low/sell high on him, they’d prob have him as a hold play.

Putting a specific RB# valuation is just semantics. Regardless we agree that he’s a buy, so that’s good

[Sriracha]

That last point is why I just don't ever see him cracking the top 10 in dynasty RB ranks. Even if he has a great season, there will likely still be plenty of doubters. I would think he would need 2 great seasons and then you are looking at a guy who's 25 with 2 big injuries, but 2 good years. Maybe then he's a top back but a lot of fresh young RB come in all the time. I'd easily be willing to bet against him ever being a RB1

Strangely, thats not how fantasy football minds work.

Dalvin Cook, Leonard Fournette have both shed the injury stigmata after staying mostly healthy for one year.

DK Metcalf and Deebo Samuel were both injured a ton in college, yet they stayed healthy for their rookie season and no one talks about their injury history anymore.

Keenan Allen was an onjury waiting to happen, and that label disappeared after only one season of health.

Because people logically understand that their injury history couldve just been bad luck; but seeing is believing

A lot of different angles to dissect here, you bring great points though.

For Keenan, I always thought his injuries were of the freak occurrence variety and never wanted to put the prone label on him.

Deebo and DK... A lot of people forget about college vs it happening in the pros. To be honest, I knew DK had some injuries but never heard about Deebos. A lot of people overlook things that happened in college for right or wrong (cough Mixon cough).

To the most relevant guys here, LF and Cook... I don't think LF is a good comparable. He widely gets the injury prone label but has managed a healthy-ish year after missing 8 games last year and only 3 his rookie year. However, he showed wayy more in his first 2 years than Guice has and LF is barelyyyy in that RB1 conversation now that he's going into his 4th year and possibly an unknown situation soon... Cook is a bit different as he has also showed way more and the potential is easily there if he plays a full set of games. I mean he had 1650 yards and 13 TD while missing 2 games last year which is more than his rookie and sophomore seasons combined (also 14 games played total). Those numbers are still way more than Guice can dream of though. Even if Guice put up 1500 yards total this year, he has nothing to show for his first 2 seasons. I don't think many people will pay RB1 numbers for a guy with 1 good season going into his 4th year.

These weren't meant to be direct comparables to Guice; just examples of how recency oriented FFers are.

Fournette was radioactive last season; the general narrative saying he had glass ankles and that he was doomed to always be injured. Guice is suffering from a similar narrative, but his price isn't as high because he's hasn't been healthy enough to 'show' people how talented he is. If he stays healthy, and pops off like I think he will in that scenario.. I could very easily see him becoming a top 10 Dynasty asset; especially if this offense takes a step forward in 2020.

Of course not everyone will value him there, but enough will that you'll be able to move him for a ton in every league.

Corey Davis is a bad example. Guice has flashed enough in limited play that most FFers believe he's talented; whereas Corey Davis has had whole seasons to show his stuff and hasn't produced at a consistent level..Guice is in a weird situation where his injuries have come after very limited stretches of play incubating his value. IMO, he could've just as easily gotten these injuries mid to late season, and been looked at in the same boat as Davlin Cook last year. So his value is depressed two fold: People who aren't really paying attention are hesitant to buy in on his talent + he's viewed as having a massive injury risk designation. I realize that some people are in fact injury prone (Danario Alexander comes to mind) But I believe people are jumping the gun assessing this label to Guice given his injury history dating back to college. He's the most obvious RB buy I've seen in a long time given his market value vs expected value in a standard situation.

[FantasyFreak]

Based on some projecting, I think Burrow will be a QB1.

With 90 percent of last years attempts and the following, I gave Joe the following:

16th best QB TD percentage: 24.9 rounded up to 25 TD's

23rd best YPA: 3825 yards

23rd best INT percentage: 14 INT's

Tacked on 200 yards rushing and 2 rushing TD's, which given Joe's mobility and ability to run, I consider conservative. Tack on 5 lost fumbles for 10 points.

At .04 points per yard, 4 points per TD pass, and -2 per Int/fumble lost, that adds up to 247 points. Good enough for 13th last year. So if Joe can be league average at all of these (I only gave that for TD passes in the passing), he will be a QB 1.

[Johnny B. Goode]

Recency bias is big in fantasy. It shouldn’t be in dynasty, but it is. If Guice pops next yr, you can bet that there will be someone in every league that will pay up. He’s the Corey Davis of RBs, there’s a lot of truthers out there.

Personally I’m not in the truther camp. But I do see him as a undervalued prospect, that has a high probability to hit/increase in trade value/profit over the next one to two yrs.

Anyways, to each their own. I’ve done very well buying on the injury dip, so I’ll continue to advocate for that strategy. If your worried about that, just dig into journal articles and informed opinions from med professionals (not beat writers). There’s profit to be made.

I am one, in a specialty that deals with exactly these kinds of injuries, and I am a big doubter
The research is not favorable, and the types of injuries he had (along with the order in which he had them) are very concerning.

[nathanq42]

Penny is a league winner in the last third of the year coming in fresh to boost the Hawks to #1 in the NFC

[dustyroads]

I would have the opposite take on 80% of your takes. But from one chiefs fan to another , rock on.

Just found it ironic I was going to post the same thing as you but opposite haha. I couldn't believe on a list so long I agreed with more than 80% of these takes, actually probably more than 90%. In the very low chance it all comes true I'll be wining a lot of leagues , outside of the Darren Waller prediction (which I do agree with though) I'm on the winning side of most of the takes. And as a Steelers fan, been hoping Dionte holds his 7/8th round ADP, he's a steal there.

Just to reinforce, personal plant the flags for each position would be:
QB- Wentz
RB- Aaron Jones (updated ADP has him 17th RB overall, as a late 3rd round pick)
WR- Diontae Johnson / Preston Williams
TE- Hurst

Think they will all far out perform current values, although they may all increase as the season grows closer.

Just curious: were you in agreement on the Steelers takes besides Diontae? Most Steeler fans I know or am friends with insist they are Super Bowl contenders with Ben back and would get extremely defensive at them finishing lower in the division than any team not named Baltimore.

For the most part, yup. I mean I wouldn't be surprised to see them wind up 10-6 instead of 7-9, but I'm not getting my hopes up for it. It's hard to criticize their draft tactics, as I've been proven wrong by them nailing it despite how it looks on paper prior to the season starting, but I felt like they are kinda splitting the difference here between a rebuild and a "one last hoorah" with Ben. If they are pushing for a championship this year with a hopefully healthy Ben, they should have taken a RB in the 2nd. Conner is a great story and a good guy, but he's a JAG on the field. His production in 18' was largely due to the offensive line/scheme and a solid passing game so he wasn't facing stacked boxes. Plus he can't stay healthy. And this is certainly some "hindsight is 20/20" but not only did they miss a chance to greatly improve their team by passing on Dobbins, they allowed their main competition in the division to draft him and improve theirs.

I saw this year as their last chance to sneak through a closing window. The Ravens are obviously one of the top teams in the entire NFL now and young enough that it will last for a while, the Bengals need to prove it but I think with Burrow, Mixon, Higgins, Boyd, etc. they are at the very least not going to be the easy 2 wins they've been the past few years, and the Browns... lol, curses aside, they NEED to be better than they were last year. I just don't see how they don't improve with all that talent.

I'd love to see the story line of fat, bearded, yoga performing Ben stay healthy and crush it this year, I just don't think it's realistic. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if they are finishing last in the division for a few years, maybe not this one, but by 2021 and forward. If they can't bomb a year and get a high draft pick and spend it on a quality 1st round QB I think it's going to be a long few years of mediocrity, which would be a shame wasting what looked like a very competitive defense they were fielding.

[Lord_Varys]

Marquise Brown busts the bleep out and is a borderline top 12 dynasty WR at this point next year. I'm buying all the hype you read on twitter - working all summer w Lamar in South Florida, dominating on one foot last year, sophomore breakout, Ravens wanna attack downfield more.

Joe Mixon finishes in the top 3 RBs. He's there talent-wise, Taylor is in his 2nd year calling plays so should be better, Burrow is a big boost, AJG is back which is also a boost, OL is healthy now, he'll get bell cow volume and clearly knows what to do with it. 1300+400 with 15 TDs.

Jonathan Taylor is a RB1 and finishes with roughly as many receptions as CEH. KC doesn't throw the ball to RB a ton, just really high quality targets lead to highlight reel RB receptions, so people think it's a ppr gold mine. Taylor will catch loads of dump offs and screens from Rivers, enough to get him close to CEH reception total and he'll blow the doors off in rushing production. Won't take long for Mack to be just a change of pace and Hines the third and long guy.

Derrick Henry backs up 2019 with an even stronger year. He's gonna add receptions this year.

Wilson and Dak are in a tier w Mahomes and Lamar this year.

MGIII finishes as a RB1. Munchack coaching an improved OL, they have the outside zone scheme that Gordon is great in, offense is gonna improve, Shurmur tends to ride one RB, and Lindsay is awful in pass pro so MGIII will have a Lotta receptions to add to the goal line work he'll get, and also he's paid to be the starter, it's gonna look more like a bell cow than a RBBC.

[FantasyFreak]

I have come up with an idea to start this thread next year, but rename it, "2021 plant my wish list,( that's attached to a stick) that kind of resembles a flag" thread:

[awkwardmike]

Joshua Kelley: By midseason he'll be a low-end RB2 or flex-quality start. Austin Ekeler is still the RB to own on the Chargers, but he's not built to be a bellcow or goal-line back. Kelley's going to get the goal-line carries, and I can easily see him getting 12-15 carries a game, if not more. I don't think he's an amazing talent by any stretch, but I do think he has more burst and wiggle than a lot of people give him credit for. Justin Jackson could make it a messy RBBC early on, but my gut tells me Kelley wins that "Melvin Gordon" role. There's something to be said about the fact he played right in the Chargers' backyard at UCLA. People rave about his character. I can see him going on that Phil Lindsay trajectory where he becomes a quick hometown fan favorite.

N'Keal Harry: I'm not scared off of last year at all. I consider it a redshirt year in a complicated New England offense. There are going to be growing pains with Stidham under center, and I wouldn't necessarily expect more than WR3 production this season. But the Patriots have sent a TON of signals that they're building around both guys. Stidham and Harry were training camp roommates and had lockers right next to each other. No significant QBs or WRs were added this offseason. When Harry played, the Patriots manufactured touches for him, and they smartly used him in the running game. He carried the ball six times on jet sweeps and averaged more than 9 yards per carry (small sample, but shows how they might use him going forward). I know he isn't a great separator, but the Patriots do a great job of scheming their players open. With a young QB, I think they'll take advantage of Harry's RAC ability and use him on a lot of screens, slants, jet sweeps. To me, he's the best end-zone target they've had since Gronk in terms of his hands, size, and his ability to win 50-50 balls. The Patriots knew they wouldn't have Brady for much longer when they drafted both Harry and Stidham. I truly believe there's a plan in place.

Quick hits:
- I'm a proud member of the Diontae Johnson and DeVante Parker bandwagons. Parker will be a top 15 WR this year if he stays healthy. I view Johnson as having a fairly safe WR3 floor with WR2 upside. I'm not ready to say he leapfrogs Juju, but they're very close in my eyes.
- Derrius Guice and Rashaad Penny aren't dead yet. They are NOT safe investments by any means, and Penny will obviously miss time this year. But I see a scenario where both reclaim value by the end of the season.
- Jamison Crowder will crack 1,000 yards in a Jarvis Landry-type season. He's Darnold's de facto No. 1 while Mims develops.
- A (finally) healthy Jerick McKinnon wins the third-down job in San Fran and returns flex value.
- John Ross has some blow-up games with Joe Burrow and becomes a very interesting free agent lottery ticket for 2021.

[FantasyFreak]

Drew Brees has just planted his. Yikes. I am going to say MT is not targeted nearly as much this year.... now. That team has a mess on their hands.

[StripesOfKC]

Drew Brees has just planted his. Yikes. I am going to say MT is not targeted nearly as much this year.... now. That team has a mess on their hands.

Eh...A mess for a few days probably--maybe a week.

I don't see it lingering as long as you seem to think