Tyler Lockett had possibly the most efficient season in NFL history.

[djeternal2]

they will surpass the 534 rushing attempts from last year

This is almost as unlikely as it is for Lockett to maintain his efficiency from last year. Both categories should regress at least some distance toward the mean.

Last year Seattle had three productive 3-down RBs with which to distribute that rushing load; they've lost Davis, and didn't replace him. That alone almost guarantees they'll run the ball less than in '18, even without getting into historical data.

Penny only had 85 att last year. Most likely he will get most of the att that would have gone to Davis who had 112 carries last year. Travis Homer/CJ Prosise would pick up the remainder.

Carson 250
Penny 160
Homer/Prosise 50
Wilson 70
Lockett 15

Those #s above equal out to 545 att. Here's last year's #s:

Carson 247
Davis 112
Penny 85
Wilson 67
Lockett 13
remaining rush att scattered between a bunch of players 10

So tell me again how unlikely they surpass 534 att is? Pete Carroll's history in Sea is as a run dominant team. I think this scenario is much more likely than those that have been touting Lockett as a 100 catch WR.

[FantasyFreak]

Ummmm. What's going on? 0 targets through 3 quarters.

Edit, 2 second later. 1 target, 1 TD. LOL

[Jigga94]

He's just keeping his efficiency numbers up guys

[FantasyFreak]

He's just keeping his efficiency numbers up guys

Just dropped a deep ball that hit him in the chest.

[Oddball456]

This is why I have such a hard time starting Lockett. He points up points but he is always SO close to putting up nothing!

For Week 2 I am going to be split on if I should start Lockett or Watkins, assuming Diggs is healthy...

[ArrylT]

This is why I have such a hard time starting Lockett. He points up points but he is always SO close to putting up nothing!

For Week 2 I am going to be split on if I should start Lockett or Watkins, assuming Diggs is healthy...

To me that is a no-brainer if the choice is simply between Lockett or Watkins.

One is on a team based around a Pass orientated team offense.

One has shown he can score similarly to Lockett (or better) even when Hill or Kelce are in the lineup (4 games of 75+ yards & 2 100 yard games).

And now one has shown their upside when either Hill or Kelce are unavailable.

The answer is Watkins. Lockett remains a nice flex play but one that is still on a run first defensive minded team where he has a role to play, and is not a primary team WR1. Two targets. And thats isnt an anomaly because last year he had 4 such games.

There is a reason the thread has its title - because Lockett does his damage on low volume high efficiency production.

His next 10+ target game will also be his first.

We'll likely see more of these 1-40-1 or 2-60-1 type games from Lockett where the hope will be he'll get a TD to make his statline fantasy palatable. Just my opinion though.

[Lord_Varys]

Pacing for 117 rec on 149 targets for 1477 yds and 11 TD. 12 and 14 targets in the last 2 games.

[Oddball456]

Pacing for 117 rec on 149 targets for 1477 yds and 11 TD. 12 and 14 targets in the last 2 games.

And I still haven't started him yet. It was down to Lockett or Diggs and I went Diggs due to 1) I figured the Saints wouldn't put up points without Brees so more run game for SEA and 1.5) I have Russ Wilson as my QB so I didn't want to double dip on point #1.

Clearly I will start Lockett moving forward over Diggs, and I am sure in week 4 Diggs will go off....

[ArrylT]

Pacing for 117 rec on 149 targets for 1477 yds and 11 TD. 12 and 14 targets in the last 2 games.

Wow I dont own any Lockett shares any more, so I had not been keeping a close eye on him - thats pretty nice pace - with that target volume in mind would not be surprised if he finished similarly to last years 57-965-10 as a floor. However they do have some tough passing defences coming up so we'll see what his targets are in those games. Had not expected him to get that volume of targets but we all make mistakes.

So kudos on his 1st & 2nd 10+ target games.

[ArrylT]

Lockett has now caught 26 of 32 targets this year and there are only 3 WRs with a better Catch % (his is 81.2%).

However DeSean Jackson has had 9 targets, Seth Roberts 8 targets & Gallup 15 (in other words they combined to equal Lockett in targets).

After 5 games, his target pace is approx 100-105 targets, but it is still up in the air if we are honest, because he has had 2 games of 10+ targets & 3 games of 5 or less targets. Regardless it seems a safe bet to predict anywhere between 80-100 targets, which since his efficiency seems to be matching his 2018 pace will put him as a high WR2 borderline WR1 dependant on how others finish.

After 5 games in 2018:

3-59-1 (4 targets)
5-60-1 (7 targets)
4-77-1 (6 targets)
5-53-0 (6 targets)
3-98-1 (5 targets)

Total = 20-347-4 (28 targets)
79.8 points in ppr

After 5 games in 2019:

1-44-1 (2 targets)
10-79-0 (12 targets)
11-154-1 (14 targets)
4-51-0 (4 targets)
4-51-1 (4 targets)

Total = 30-379-3 (32 trargets)
85.1 points in ppr

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

It's baffling to me why they don't throw to him more.

[Cameron Giles]

It's baffling to me why they don't throw to him more.

Because they have an awful OC. Most of their passing plays are improvised by Russell Wilson. He simply finds whoever's open based off his scramble.

[Patsfan86]

It's baffling to me why they don't throw to him more.

They dont need to, they have Will GOAT Dissly to throw to (sarcasm) even though he has been efficient too considering he has only not caught 3 targets out of 26. I think this is a case of a great Qb elevating the players around him more than it is of Lockett, Dissly, Metcalf etc being as good as they are appearing to be in the early season.

[problemsolver]

Because they have an awful OC.

If there has ever been a more obvious play call than the third and two reverse jet sweep option BS they ran on their last posession, I can't remember it. They spent all night faking the reverse with Lockett and you could just see it coming a mile away. The Rams saw it too and just blew it the F up.

They spend all this time establishing themselves as a power running team but then when push comes to shove they can't help but getting cute. It should have cost them the game.

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

It's baffling to me why they don't throw to him more.

They dont need to, they have Will GOAT Dissly to throw to (sarcasm) even though he has been efficient too considering he has only not caught 3 targets out of 26. I think this is a case of a great Qb elevating the players around him more than it is of Lockett, Dissly, Metcalf etc being as good as they are appearing to be in the early season.

Dissly, sure, but Lockett could be Antonio Brown-like (on the field) if he got the targets.
He's not a product of Wilson, he's just what happens when you combine the most efficient WR with the most efficient QB, and then tease us by only going to that connection 4 times a game.