Why the Charles Johnson love?

[marmar]

Some are saying he is worth a 1st. Some are saying he will be at least a wr2/3. I am not understanding all this "love" for him. They are adding AP/Rudolph/Wallace into the mix for 2015 still have CP and drafted Stefon Diggs. They did lose Greg Jennings. I know I am going against the grain on this one but I have trouble seeing these kinds of values or expectations (wr2/3). Teddy threw an avg of 31 times per game last yr, my guess is that will not go up much as they feed AP, add in the new targets does he get much more then the 18% of Teddy's targets he got last yr with (Wright, Jennings, CP, Chase Ford, Rhett Ellison) as his competition for targets. Did he really do that much better then those guys?
2014 game logs
10/2 @ GB 1/7 3 targets
10/12 vs DET 2/22 3 targets
10/26 @ TB 2/18 5 targets
11/2 vs WSH 1/13 1 target
11/16 @CHI 6/87 7 targets
11/23 vs GB 3/52 1td 10 targets
11/30 vs CAR 2/41 4 targets
12/7 vs NYJ 4/103 1td 8 targets
12/14 @ DET 5/72 7 targets
12/21 @ MIA 3/38 6 targets
12/28 vs CHI 2/22 4 targets
31/475/2td 58 targets in 11 games

* Jarius Wright in games he received at least 1 target and Johnson was active finished with
31/419/2td 46 targets in 10 games

* Greg Jennings in games Jonson was active 11 games
38/461/5td 62 targets

Am I way off here? Am I missing the next big thing? Please share your thoughts or your projections for one Charles Johnson.

[the_future]

A few things:

1) Patterson is awful, I run better routes than he does. j. Wright, ford, diggs, Ellison are all below average nfl players. Ap has brick hands. Mike Wallace is a great decoy WR as he takes the top off the defense but doesn't get many targets. Charles Johnson is the #2 WR and has a great shot at getting the most targets as Wallace just runs 9 routes and bubble screens and will free up Johnson.

2) the teddy/ap combo will be huge for c. Johnson. teddy is one of the most intelligent and accurate qb's in the league. He will continue to get better and the addition of ap will only help. Defenses will stack the box against ap leaving Johnson one on one on almost every play with Wallace drawing the doubles teams. The play action will be huge for the Vikings this year and should leave Johnson wide open on white a few plays.

3) cooks, m. Bryant and a. Rob were all in the top 36 wrs last year. NEVER go by total points when making arguments. It's all about PPR. Bryant cooks and a.rob all missed multiple games so your point on them not making top 36 is invalid.

If we are going by that logic, Maclin had a better year than OBJ last year.

[bruiser]

You are not alone in your skepticism. I was loving Charles Johnson for his contributions to my championship run last year, but some things started to materialize this offseason (you nailed those) that had me pumping the brakes last month. Stefon Diggs cannot be overlooked (CPatt can be).

My most recent discovery is that the NFC North faces a very tough schedule this fall. Charles Johnson may be at one of those peaks in value that can come back again in a year, but I'd be selling him right now and file his name under "buy low" for later.

[the_future]

You are not alone in your skepticism. I was loving Charles Johnson for his contributions to my championship run last year, but some things started to materialize this offseason (you nailed those) that had me pumping the brakes last month. Stefon Diggs cannot be overlooked (CPatt can be).

My most recent discovery is that the NFC North faces a very tough schedule this fall. Charles Johnson may be at one of those peaks in value that can come back again in a year, but I'd be selling him right now and file his name under "buy low" for later.

I also believe that most fantasy owners have the viewpoint as bruiser. I have him in a couple leagues and tried shopping him for equal WR or for rbs such as j,stew, Ingram, Vereen and no one would bite. While I agree that it would be a good idea to sell high, I actually think you would be selling low right now as must feel he was a flash in the pan.

[marmar]

Yes I should have went ppg as a better measure I agree, so I took out those names of players missed out of the top 36 to keep the focus on Johnson not on an honest error on my part. However his avg doesn't change and is most likely closer to wr5 then wr3 numbers in 11 games. I also agree that those players are below avg NFL players why didn't he stand out even more then with such poor competition for targets?

[clarion contrarion]

He is getting a ton of hype for a 26 year old wr with 3 career games above 70 yards receiving. Everyone wants to be find the gem for free but history tells us that wallace is the safer bet . Wallace has been a bit disappointing but wasn't utilized properly on miami. If wallace is utilized properly and the teddy b accuracy is on display wallace will lead the team in catches yards and tds and johnson is a glaring sell high at this point .

[operwapitsai]

I really don't think you can say he started in 11 games....

Take those first 4 games out and he had a decent run from weeks 11-17

Add in the coachspeak hype, teddys/vikes offense development, work ethic, Zimmer hand picked, METRICS!

I would bet money that he will be a WR3 AT LEAST this year


(Just sold him for 1.11)

[jeffster]

He is getting a ton of hype for a 26 year old wr with 3 career games above 70 yards receiving. Everyone wants to be find the gem for free but history tells us that wallace is the safer bet . Wallace has been a bit disappointing but wasn't utilized properly on miami. If wallace is utilized properly and the teddy b accuracy is on display wallace will lead the team in catches yards and tds and johnson is a glaring sell high at this point .

Wallace is a favorite, un-sexy buy low for me, for exactly the reasons you laid out.

[doktor]

He is 26, yes. But last year he was still essentially a rookie (albeit an old one lol). He didn't play in GB, where he was drafted, because they had a few guys (can't recall their names offhand ) whom they liked better at the time. They moved him to their practice squad and CLE scooped him up. He didn't play for them b/c he tore his ACL and spent the year recovering.

Keep in mind Norv was in CLE when they grabbed him. Norv moved to MIN. Once CLE released Johnson (b/c they're idiots - a topic for a diff thread) Norv scooped him up instantly in MIN. That says something that Norv grabbed him every time he could, on any team he was with. Norv has installed him as his X, the WR position that Norv has historically favored and peppered with targets. Norv can't stop gushing about him. Johnson has truly elite measurables and athleticism; and has shown a fantastic work ethic. He seems to be in a good, stable situation with a starting role now, and a very solid young QB who is also on the rise. I really don't see Wallace as much of a long-term threat. He's a diva, a lockerroom cancer that hasn't gotten along, or stayed on with, any team he's been a part of since 2010 PIT. I think Johnson will settle in as a reliable WR3 with weekly WR2 upside. If you're selling him now then I think you're minimizing the risk (that he duds to start the year) but also minimizing the profit (his value will go up if he starts the year hot).

I will gladly sell him if I think the value is there; but I'm not underselling him at this point either. I have him as one of many options for my 2 flex spots; so I'm really not terribly motivated to sell him unless it's to someone else who will pay fairly.

[Pac_Eddy]

If you look only at stats, it's easy to say he's a sell-high and/or is over hyped right now. Remember that last year he was still recovering from an ACL.

I watched all the Vikings games and came away noticing how much Teddy looks to him and how much better he looks than the other WRs on that roster. Wallace is definitely a factor this year though. I'd say the presence of Wallace & him being 26 already are his two biggest negatives.

As I said in another thread, I wouldn't pay a late first to acquire him, but with his upside, that's what I would want to trade him away. He just looks like a game changer.

[bigchiefbc]

I don't think there are as many people that are as high on Johnson as you think there are, unless I am really mistaken. I think I'm on the high-end on Johnson, and I'm basically expecting him to be a WR3 (he'll be my WR4/FLX1 in my main league). Here are my reasons:

1. It seemed from mid-November on that he had developed a good rapport with Teddy, who I am also high on and think his attempts will go up a bit this year

2. I've never been a Wallace fan, I think he's basically a sprinter who runs one route.

3. Norv has been pretty damned glowing in his praise of Johnson, and I doubt Norv goes ground-and-pound

[marmar]

Ok so I went back and took those games out and ran some numbers.
19/328/2. 40 targets 347 snaps charles johnson
16/273/2. 20 targets 157 snaps jarius wright
24/281/1. 44 targets 306 snaps marqise lee

I added Lee because he was in a similer position last yr and this yr like Johnson. Was his teams #1 at the end of last yr with a rookie qb. They are getting yeldon/robinson/thomas added for 2015 and lost Shorts. While Johnson is getting AP/Wallace/Rudoulph and lost jennings. Johnson is going for a 1st and is a lock for wr3 while people view Lee with a value of a 3rd.

Are we just in love with his playoff 2 game stretch of
9/175/1 in weeks 13&14 while we forget that was sandwiched between his 10/153/1 totals in those other 4 weeks he was the starter.

[evorzan]

He is getting a ton of hype for a 26 year old wr with 3 career games above 70 yards receiving. Everyone wants to be find the gem for free but history tells us that wallace is the safer bet . Wallace has been a bit disappointing but wasn't utilized properly on miami. If wallace is utilized properly and the teddy b accuracy is on display wallace will lead the team in catches yards and tds and johnson is a glaring sell high at this point .

Wallace is a favorite, un-sexy buy low for me, for exactly the reasons you laid out.

I agree. Charles Johnson's catch rate is the biggest red flag for me. The fact that he caught such a low percentage of balls thrown his way from a QB known for his accuracy is concerning. It tells me Teddy felt like he didn't have anywhere better to go with the ball, so he kept chucking it to him. Mike Wallace is somewhere better to go with the ball.