Telperion vs. Darkness

[Telperion]

A few thoughts:

- Heart matters. But the NFL has already adjusted draft position to account for that.
- College career YPC is relevant. But the NFL has already adjusted draft position to account for that.
- School history may be relevant. But the NFL has already adjusted draft position to account for that.
- History is relevant. But the NFL has already adjusted draft position to account for that.

I don't think it can be refuted that NFL draft position already includes all of the metrics and history considerations, as well as tons of things we'll never have access to like player interviews, coaches opinions, hours of scouting, etc. So why does the fantasy community think they know better? The experts don't have to be right all the time, they just have to be right more often than the fantasy community, which they are.

"But Alfred Morris!"

What about the other 42 RB's drafted in the 6th or 7th since 2010 who didn't succeed? I'm not cool with regularly throwing 2.4% darts.

"But Trent Richardson!"

What about the other 8 guys out of 43 who did succeed from the top 3 rounds since 2010? I prefer those 18.6% odds.

It's folly for anybody to think a few hours on YouTube and some offensive line and situational analysis will yield better results than NFL front offices.

My only asterisk is that I think metrics can disqualify some higher draft picks if their physical profile has not succeeded (in other words, their body just can't handle the higher level of athletic competition in the NFL), but I don't think metrics, situation, heart, etc can justify an increase on someone's success odds.

NFL front offices are not drafting players to put up fantasy points. NFL front offices are drafting players to fill roles on their team. And, some situations and schemes are not conducive to points for a given position. Your job as a fantasy GM is to find the fantasy points in the selections. This doesn't mean always taking players in the order NFL teams take them, nor should it mean that.

I considered preemptively rebutting this but opted not to.

In cases like Tyler Lockett, Dorsett this year, Michael a few years back, sure, of course make slight adjustments. When your options are similar players with similar draft situations, again, of course adjust. But Cobb over Matt Jones? These kinds of things are commonplace and are way, way off base.

But you're approaching this like NFL success is disconnected from fantasy success. While they don't completely overlap, NFL success leads to fantasy success. And we're talking skill positions here, not offensive line.

[Lotto4Life]

It's folly for anybody to think a few hours on YouTube and some offensive line and situational analysis will yield better results than NFL front offices.

I agreed with everything you said except this. I think offensive line for RB is very important for the short to medium term. It's a separate analysis. It's not a big mover, but it can move people up and down within tiers as well as possibly move somebody up or down a tier if they are at the top/bottom of a tier.

[TheChicken]

I think there is one skill position that has not been addressed where I'm pretty sure draft position and fantasy success is not as correlated as RB & WR is. Tight End is a position that highlights that NFL front offices draft to win (I guess except for the Raiders & Browns ) rather than fantasy points scoring. A great blocking in-line TE might be drafted in the 1st with little expectation from the NFL font office of big receiving production. As such it is important to identify RBs & WRs that may have their NFL draft stock inflated by aspects of their game that may not produce fantasy points (e.g. special teams play or team specific need).

Also we are talking explicitly about drafting rookies in a rookie draft and not valuing and trading veterans (even 1 year veterans), that is correct isn't it?

[clarion contrarion]

A few thoughts:

- Heart matters. But the NFL has already adjusted draft position to account for that.
- College career YPC is relevant. But the NFL has already adjusted draft position to account for that.
- School history may be relevant. But the NFL has already adjusted draft position to account for that.
- History is relevant. But the NFL has already adjusted draft position to account for that.

I don't think it can be refuted that NFL draft position already includes all of the metrics and history considerations, as well as tons of things we'll never have access to like player interviews, coaches opinions, hours of scouting, etc. So why does the fantasy community think they know better? The experts don't have to be right all the time, they just have to be right more often than the fantasy community, which they are.

"But Alfred Morris!"

What about the other 42 RB's drafted in the 6th or 7th since 2010 who didn't succeed? I'm not cool with regularly throwing 2.4% darts.

"But Trent Richardson!"

What about the other 8 guys out of 43 who did succeed from the top 3 rounds since 2010? I prefer those 18.6% odds.

It's folly for anybody to think a few hours on YouTube and some offensive line and situational analysis will yield better results than NFL front offices.

My only asterisk is that I think metrics can disqualify some higher draft picks if their physical profile has not succeeded (in other words, their body just can't handle the higher level of athletic competition in the NFL), but I don't think metrics, situation, heart, etc can justify an increase on someone's success odds.

has it adjusted ? and being better than the fantasy community who gives a %^&*( about that
I care about being the best manager in each league I am in . The community at large is filled with guys that haven't a clue or that just parrot other peoples opinions .... I find my own path generally and sometimes that path has potholes but I rarely lift off the gas pedal .

david wilson was a 1st rounder ryan williams with a college injury history went 35th or some where real close to that
sam bradford went 1st overall blaine gabbert 10th or 12th or whatever ? kevin white went 7th this year ?
perhaps those teams should have just called me instead
my method to you is like porterhouse to a vegetarian but it is filling for the purpose I use it. Results do speak loudly.
I have been forbidden from mentioning my past success by a few of the forum police as my success offends their sensitivities but I will stand on my player analysis . I also will stand on my statement that if there was a magic bullet the organizations worth a billion+ that pay their mortgages from the information gleaned from such a formula would have already implemented such a formula .

[Telperion]

It's folly for anybody to think a few hours on YouTube and some offensive line and situational analysis will yield better results than NFL front offices.

I agreed with everything you said except this. I think offensive line for RB is very important for the short to medium term. It's a separate analysis. It's not a big mover, but it can move people up and down within tiers as well as possibly move somebody up or down a tier if they are at the top/bottom of a tier.

Within tiers I agree with you. But situational analysis put Sankey in the top 5 and Hill in the mid 2nd last year.

So while we completely agree that it's a factor, we may disagree on how heavily that factor should be weighted.

Regarding clarion's points, I think you entirely missed my point. Everybody can identify exceptions where high picks failed and low picks succeeded. But I'm saying:

- The totality of the success rates of early round picks over time is far better.
- Nobody can successfully beat the NFL experts over time by attempting to make large deviations from draft position rather than just sticking closely to draft position as a guide.

[Lotto4Life]

Within tiers I agree with you. But situational analysis put Sankey in the top 5 and Hill in the mid 2nd last year.

I tried to unbold the situational part but it didn't come through well. And my opinion of Sankey's situation was negative because of a bad OL and bad offense. To me situation is how good is their OL at run blocking.

[clarion contrarion]

It's folly for anybody to think a few hours on YouTube and some offensive line and situational analysis will yield better results than NFL front offices.

I agreed with everything you said except this. I think offensive line for RB is very important for the short to medium term. It's a separate analysis. It's not a big mover, but it can move people up and down within tiers as well as possibly move somebody up or down a tier if they are at the top/bottom of a tier.

Within tiers I agree with you. But situational analysis put Sankey in the top 5 and Hill in the mid 2nd last year.

So while we completely agree that it's a factor, we may disagree on how heavily that factor should be weighted.

Regarding clarion's points, I think you entirely missed my point. Everybody can identify exceptions where high picks failed and low picks succeeded. But I'm saying:

- The totality of the success rates of early round picks over time is far better.
- Nobody can successfully beat the NFL experts over time by attempting to make large deviations from draft position rather than just sticking closely to draft position as a guide.

I didn't miss your point and I admire the work you are attempting to do or at least the lengths you seem willing to go to achieve the desired results but the key is identifying the pukes before they become pukes and if a school or conference has produced a line of pukes that the NFL people miss then I will go with that history over draft slot any time . That history led me to trade out of the 1:1 this year in the league we are in together as I love gordon and respect so many of the people 's opinion that loved gurley but a rb coming from a school that has produced barely 1 significant NFL rb ( michael bennett) and another rb coming off a major knee injury led me to get out of 1;1 just happened to luck into the colts qb as a result.
I still hold out great hope for gordon and to a lesser extent gurley but not so much as to put my team at their mercy . I really wanted cooper but anthony wanted the 1:1 so badly for gurley that I decided to try an acquire luck and did so for the reasonable price to me of the 1:1 ,1:10 and davante adams .
To me not making catastophis blunders in personel in as if not more important than scouting from dawn until dark every day opr crunching numbers until my eyeballs bleed . This little hobby is more magic than science in my eyes and I approach its pursuit as such and my opinion is magicians understand science better than scientists understand magic








( OK OK OK simmer down , the previous sentence is pure hyperbole thrown in for amusement )

[CrimsonKodiak]

Your valuation Vs Nfl valuation (draft pick). out of the 4 variances only 2 are the ones being discussed here.

1. You rank him high VS high draft slot; chances of success...pretty high (there are always exceptions....Trich)
2. You rank him low VS low draft pick; chances of success...pretty low (not many exceptions)

3. you rank him high VS low NFL draft; do you trust your valuation or the NFL's?
4. you rank him low VS High draft pick; same as above?

as some people have said, sometimes NFL teams take a pick for need. it fills a void or future void in their lineup and they cannot pass on the opportunity to have a certain player. NFL teams aren't taking BPA hoping to trade them for value later. So sometimes players draft pedigree gets inflated by one team making one choice. for that reason I trust my own valuation in option 4.

Option 3 is the crucial one. because although a team might reach for a certain player and increasing his draft pedigree, it's different when 32 teams pass on a player in multiple rounds that you have ranked high. that's 32 teams potentially making 64 or 96 decisions to push your player into the 4th round (and beyond). So you have to wonder what are they seeing that I'm not, or what am I seeing that they aren't. But when I look at it, if I trust my valuation in 3 out of the 4 options, I have to go with it on this one. If you see something you like in a player, why not draft him higher than most.

[Telperion]

Scenario 3 I defer to the NFL valuation. I'm in operations management. They're scouts and football executives.

Scenario 4 I do also, so long as they're not historically slow.

[clarion contrarion]

Scenario 3 I defer to the NFL valuation. I'm in operations management. They're scouts and football executives.

Scenario 4 I do also, so long as they're not historically slow.

you may be in operations management but my guess is that you would be able to outdraft tommy smith
( I feel like I could as well as could my son's fox terrier ) before you think I am brown nosing . So just because they have a job doing something does not mean they are able or capable to do it well . In my former job as an asset manager I saw it daily people paid to do jobs that I would rather just grab someone off the street and teach them in 15 minutes to be as competent because they lacked built in hubris or poor decision making abilities .

[knotts4372]

Scenario 3 I defer to the NFL valuation. I'm in operations management. They're scouts and football executives.

Scenario 4 I do also, so long as they're not historically slow.

you may be in operations management but my guess is that you would be able to outdraft tommy smith
( I feel like I could as well as could my son's fox terrier ) before you think I am brown nosing . So just because they have a job doing something does not mean they are able or capable to do it well . In my former job as an asset manager I saw it daily people paid to do jobs that I would rather just grab someone off the street and teach them in 15 minutes to be as competent because they lacked built in hubris or poor decision making abilities .

i agree here. just cause they are paid to do that job doesnt mean they are any better at it than alot of ppl on here even. just like alot of these twitter writers some ppl think they are good at their job analyzing nfl and all but imo no they only have them jobs cause they are good at writing bout it. im convinced a good portion of dlf posters are as good if not better talent analysts as these supposed "experts"

[clarion contrarion]

Scenario 3 I defer to the NFL valuation. I'm in operations management. They're scouts and football executives.

Scenario 4 I do also, so long as they're not historically slow.

you may be in operations management but my guess is that you would be able to outdraft tommy smith
( I feel like I could as well as could my son's fox terrier ) before you think I am brown nosing . So just because they have a job doing something does not mean they are able or capable to do it well . In my former job as an asset manager I saw it daily people paid to do jobs that I would rather just grab someone off the street and teach them in 15 minutes to be as competent because they lacked built in hubris or poor decision making abilities .

i agree here. just cause they are paid to do that job doesnt mean they are any better at it than alot of ppl on here even. just like alot of these twitter writers some ppl think they are good at their job analyzing nfl and all but imo no they only have them jobs cause they are good at writing bout it. im convinced a good portion of dlf posters are as good if not better talent analysts as these supposed "experts"

and nearly all do it with zero NFL connections or inside information but upside of that trade off is the people here are not looking to monetize their skills or have an axe to grind with any information in particular . I see reports all the time from so called experts that I just think to myself a player or his agent could have written that blurb . You know for every tidbit of every scoop they get there is a payback at some point so that in my estmation makes at least 50% of the info tainted . My favorite way to watch film or games when scouting is with the sound muted as I see more clearly with my eyes than I do with my ears .

[iCantStop]

[Mighty to Save]

Excellent thread, fellas. Thanks for all the responses.

[Steelersfan]

One train of thought says the best determination of an RB is where he is selected. The other has his own tier system for ranking RBs. Which way do we lean and why?

A combination of using your own system and all the other resources available is the best course, and draft pedigree is one that I value highly.