Evans vs. AJG, OTC

[JetsFan91]

I am in a startup draft, 12 tm PPR, and can start 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE, and 4 FLEX (RB/WR/TE). I have pick 1.06 and players currently off the board are:

Dez
Beckham, Jr.
A. Brown
Julio
L. Bell

Obviously, Gronk is still available, but I am more drawn towards AJG or Evans at this spot. I also am willing to trade back and pick up more picks, but, so far, the only offer I have received is:

Give: 1.06, 6.07
Get: 2.09, 3.04, 2016 1st

I am not sure that is a terribly reasonable trade, either. Would love your thoughts on whether I should take the trade or pick Evans or AJG at 1.06. Thanks

[JetsFan91]

also was curious about arguments for either Evans or AJG, which one you would pick and why

[harr]

I am in a startup draft, 12 tm PPR, and can start 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE, and 4 FLEX (RB/WR/TE). I have pick 1.06 and players currently off the board are:

Dez
Beckham, Jr.
A. Brown
Julio
L. Bell

Obviously, Gronk is still available, but I am more drawn towards AJG or Evans at this spot. I also am willing to trade back and pick up more picks, but, so far, the only offer I have received is:

Give: 1.06, 6.07
Get: 2.09, 3.04, 2016 1st

I am not sure that is a terribly reasonable trade, either. Would love your thoughts on whether I should take the trade or pick Evans or AJG at 1.06. Thanks

Personally I'd take one of those two WRs. Probably AJG, but I understand the draw of Evans (22 and looks the "stud" part).

[jeffster]

AJG. Proven stud in his prime. Evans is still a lot of hopeful potential, even though he's looked great so far.

[Coolryan]

Ajg is the smart safe pick, however Evans could pay off huge dividends for a few years longer than ajg. Unless Evans is your guy and you could live with him not working out In the case that he does, ajg is the pick

[HawkeyeState]

Evans

[JetsFan91]

Also just offered this:

Give: 1.06, 3.06, 4.07
Get: 1.11, 3.05, 3.11

That seems like very little gain to move back 5 spots. That person also has the 2.02, which I think would be necessary for me to move back to 1.11. Still sit back and pick between AJG and Evans?

[Cowboysfan33]

There's no way I would take that trade. Not enough, imo. Stay put and take AJG.

[Lwick13]

Take AJ proven stud. Really no reason for everyone to be as low on him as they are. Yes, Mike Evans is younger but AJ is still going to be playing for another 7-8 years easily.

[HawkeyeState]

Take AJ proven stud. Really no reason for everyone to be as low on him as they are. Yes, Mike Evans is younger but AJ is still going to be playing for another 7-8 years easily.

AJ Green turns 27 on July 31st this year. So your saying he's still going to be playing when he's 34-35 years old? Unlikely
Even if he is, he won't be a stud for 7-8 years
He's coming into his prime WR years right now (27-29 years old usually).
Evans is 21 and will be 22 on August 21st. So Evans put up 245 points as a 21 year old and that doesn't excite you to have at least 230 points and more like 245+ on your team for the next 7-8 years? (where he would be 29-30 years old)

[Intoodeep]

Take AJ proven stud. Really no reason for everyone to be as low on him as they are. Yes, Mike Evans is younger but AJ is still going to be playing for another 7-8 years easily.

AJ Green turns 27 on July 31st this year. So your saying he's still going to be playing when he's 34-35 years old? Unlikely
Even if he is, he won't be a stud for 7-8 years
He's coming into his prime WR years right now (27-29 years old usually).
Evans is 21 and will be 22 on August 21st. So Evans put up 245 points as a 21 year old and that doesn't excite you to have at least 230 points and more like 245+ on your team for the next 7-8 years? (where he would be 29-30 years old)

Worth less than whatever WR is drafted the year before who put up promising stats.

I like Evans and I guess difference of opinions make for better leagues, but damn the youth movement is nutts! A stud WR who by all accounts has been a top 5 dynasty asset for the past 2 years, can't even finish his rookie deal before getting passed up by a rook.

[invisibulman]

I would take the trade. Being able to grab an additional pick in the first three rounds is huge boost. The best value is typically had in rounds 2-4.

If you opt not to trade the pick, this isn't even close. It's AJG. The only rule for your 1st round pick is DO NOT MISS. If you get the 9th best player rather than the 6th best player, you will be fine. If you gamble on a player with a ton of upside and he busts... your team is screwed for years to come.

[maxhyde]

AJG
Without hesitation for me. My thoughts in a startup, especially a top 10 startup pick, you should take the best player over the next 2-4 years (you choose your window)...not a guy who may be around for 10. NFL careers are exceedingly short on average so don't try making a 10 year plan today.

[HawkeyeState]

AJG
Without hesitation for me. My thoughts in a startup, especially a top 10 startup pick, you should take the best player over the next 2-4 years (you choose your window)...not a guy who may be around for 10. NFL careers are exceedingly short on average so don't try making a 10 year plan today.

Who says Evans can't outscore AJG as soon as this year?
We all agree Andy Dalton is terrible
The Bengals have spent a 2nd round pick in 2013 and 2014 on dynamic playmakers at RB
They have also spent premium selections on offensive lineman to stock the cupboard as their older OL move on to new teams or retire
TB just added what is hopefully the franchise QB who was far better then who Evans had throwing to him

At the very least Evans should be within 1-2 PPG of AJG this year and probably surpasses him after that while AJG production begins to slowly dip as more years go by and his ADP/Value dips as well while Evans arrow is firmly pointing up

[maxhyde]

AJG
Without hesitation for me. My thoughts in a startup, especially a top 10 startup pick, you should take the best player over the next 2-4 years (you choose your window)...not a guy who may be around for 10. NFL careers are exceedingly short on average so don't try making a 10 year plan today.

Who says Evans can't outscore AJG as soon as this year?
We all agree Andy Dalton is terrible
The Bengals have spent a 2nd round pick in 2013 and 2014 on dynamic playmakers at RB
They have also spent premium selections on offensive lineman to stock the cupboard as their older OL move on to new teams or retire
TB just added what is hopefully the franchise QB who was far better then who Evans had throwing to him

At the very least Evans should be within 1-2 PPG of AJG this year and probably surpasses him after that while AJG production begins to slowly dip as more years go by and his ADP/Value dips as well while Evans arrow is firmly pointing up

Discussion for another thread. Pretty sure we all know the arguments for and against.