The Todd Gurley Thread - Currently FA

[FantasyFreak]

Does the fact he's played 14 out of a possible 27 games over the past 2 seasons? For a guy that's suppose to be a "workhorse back", he can't seem to stay on the field.

Are you counting suspended games as injury related misses?

Career wise I am tracking 29/35 games over three years, not counting suspension of course. So to answer your question, no. I do hope he sits at first in the NFL just to make sure he is 100% before entering a game. If he winds up on my roster, I am okay with a 'redshirt' rookie year.

Yes, I am. He was suspended for 4 games. If you are suspended, you don't play. If you are suspended in the NFL, same thing, obviously. Point is, he made a bonehead decision, a selfish decision that cost his team, and himself 4 games. Of course he says it was a mistake, he got caught. Still a character issue IMO. Who says he's done making bonehead decisions, especially when he gets first round money? Point is, one way or another, he hasn't been on the field for even 60% of his teams games over the last 2 seasons. He should definitely red shirt his first year, it could be a disastrous result if he doesn't. He could re-tear the knee, or have confidence issues with it, leading to lack of success, leading to further lack of confidence. No way I pick him, I have a competing team, and Melvin Gordon can step in right away for me. If you are not a competing team, you can wait a year, I will not. (Plus I just think Gordon is better)

[FantasyFreak]

There's a reason why almost unananamously professional scouts utter terms like foundation back or elite talent or franchise back when describing his talent. I respect your opinion and going out on a limb and suggesting other backs are better. However I concur with the guys who actually get paid to do this. Best regards

I do concur with these people on a lot of occasions, but they also said the same thing about T-Rich. None of these guys were predicting Le'veon Bell to break out this year, I did. I like the tape on both players. Call it a gut feeling, but I think Gordon has the better career.

[John Paul]

I'm cool with people ranking Gordon over Gurley. That may help me to have the chance to pick him. I don't see Trent Richardsom when I watch cutups of Gurley, so I don't trust that example.

Also, I'm just not going to draft based solely on 2015 production. I want long term gains for my team. I believe Gurley will provide that moreso than Gordon. There's still a chance that Cooper, White or Parker may pass him in my final rankings. I'm still checking tape and comparing collegiate production and physical metrics to established players already producing in the NFL.

I just don't see a QB or TE worth a 1st rounder in 2015 so those are the big four for me right now. Gordon is ahead of a lot of players IMO, just not the four I've mentioned.

[FantasyFreak]

I'm cool with people ranking Gordon over Gurley. That may help me to have the chance to pick him. I don't see Trent Richardsom when I watch cutups of Gurley, so I don't trust that example.

Also, I'm just not going to draft based solely on 2015 production. I want long term gains for my team. I believe Gurley will provide that moreso than Gordon. There's still a chance that Cooper, White or Parker may pass him in my final rankings. I'm still checking tape and comparing collegiate production and physical metrics to established players already producing in the NFL.

I just don't see a QB or TE worth a 1st rounder in 2015 so those are the big four for me right now. Gordon is ahead of a lot of players IMO, just not the four I've mentioned.

To each their own. I was using T-Rich simply as an example of the consensus elite back coming out of college. He was a much better looking back in college then now, by the way. I can see by your roster make-up that you and I have a difference of opinions on a lot of players, so it doesn't strike me as odd that we don't agree on this.

[KMA]

Side me with the Gurley believers. Nothing against Gordon. He is a fine back in his own right. Not worried about the knee nor the ridiculous suspension.

[Phaded]

So I've watched the tape, I like the guy a lot but I don't love him. Also, I'm fairly new to evaluating tape on my own so there may be things I'm overlooking.

For the last few weeks I've been toying with the idea of trading up for 1.01 to grab Gurley. Might overpay a bit according to consensus opinion but I don't mind if I'm getting a huge asset.

Being a RB projected to be drafted in the first round I thought was an accomplish in itself given the last couple years. Now reports he may go top 10. Even despite coming off his injury?

Is he THAT good? Who would you guys compare him to? If he comes back healthy, is he a can't miss prospect or will he be a first round flop ala Trent Richardson? Where would he rank amongst active NFL backs for you hypothetically?

Thanks for the input guys. I just wanna make sure I'm not missing something huge from his tape that I should be catching.

[HawkeyeState]

I love everything about him. Some have compared him to AP. I don't think he's quite AP. He's more like a poor mans AP or rich mans Steven Jackson but he has the ceiling of AP IMO.
I think the current state of dynasty running backs and how almost all of them are aging or have number of touches concerns is why Gurley is being rated so high.
His combination of great tape and measurables mixed with the barren state of dynasty running backs rankings has him in the top 5 right away and some have him 1 or 2

[Jfever]

I don't see Gurley having the ceiling of AP. Physically, not quite and I also doubt the opportunity to be that "volume" guy will show itself.

Not in today's NFL. It is rare. and getting more rare. I don't like taking rb early in the draft but I do agree that Gurley (even with the knee) / based on value - is a lock for a top 5 pick in rookie drafts. I'm currently much more of a fan of a couple other rookies but - I'm not blind and I do see the talent in Gurley. AP though... nope. He isn't in the same league as of today. Could he prove me wrong? sure. We'll see.

In the 5 different dyno leagues that I'm in, I currently own a 1.03, 1.05, 1.10,1.11,2.04,2.06 - so..... I doubt I'll be owning him anywhere. Never know though. Those owners that pass Cooper, Parker, White, and Gordon - do at least have to do some thinking.

[UtterSurety]

I've heard best prospect since AP. He has size, speed. He is tough to tackle, protects the ball, can be three down work horse, and competitive from what I've heard.

The only concerns I see are the knee, which is sounding like it checks out just fine, also I am a little worried a less than desirable team takes him and he gets what happened to watkins.

Watch his highlights of the 2014 Clemson game and that run against Georgia Tech where he runs through half the defense, both give me goosebumps.

[rubber_duck]

I like Gurley's talent very much, and much of the draft experts like him. However, that doesn't translate very well to fantasy production. The last decade has been very tough on the top rated rookie RBs:

2015 Gurley Gordon
2014 Sankey Hyde
2013 Bernard Montee Ball
2012 Richardson Martin
2011 Ingram Thomas
2010 Mathews Jahvid Best
2009 Moreno Wells
2008 McFadden Mendenhall
2007 Peterson Lynch
2006 Bush Addai

Many of these players were talked about with similar comments to what is being said about Gurley (i.e. best prospect since ...)

IMO: "Can't miss" prospects are very rare, and may not exist at the RB position.

[kmbryant09]

I like Gurley's talent very much, and much of the draft experts like him. However, that doesn't translate very well to fantasy production. The last decade has been very tough on the top rated rookie RBs:

2015 Gurley Gordon
2014 Sankey Hyde
2013 Bernard Montee Ball
2012 Richardson Martin
2011 Ingram Thomas
2010 Mathews Jahvid Best
2009 Moreno Wells
2008 McFadden Mendenhall
2007 Peterson Lynch
2006 Bush Addai

Many of these players were talked about with similar comments to what is being said about Gurley (i.e. best prospect since ...)

IMO: "Can't miss" prospects are very rare, and may not exist at the RB position.

This is what scares me about Gurley. I won't pretend to be a professional scout, but his gametape doesn't scream "CAN'T MISS STUD PROSPECT" to me, and the draft media falls in love with at least 1 RB in every draft class.

All the things people are saying about Gurley were also said about Richardson. (And to some degree:) And Martin. And McFadden. And Mathews. And Ingram.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Steven Jackson

That's a pretty good comparison. I like to compare him to a faster version of Eddie Lacy. They both build to speed a little slower than I would like, but once they get going they are impossible to take down. To me Gurley doesn't have the best vision but the rest of his game makes up for it. Like Lacy, I would say if Gurley goes to an above average offense he is ready to go. If he goes somewhere with a bad o-line and bad QB I don't think he's the type of can't-miss guy like AP that can run wild on a bad team against stacked boxes every play. Not to say he will be a bust, but he might not be the best RB out of this class in that scenario imo.

[Fezzik]

Steven Jackson

That's a pretty good comparison. I like to compare him to a faster version of Eddie Lacy. They both build to speed a little slower than I would like, but once they get going they are impossible to take down. To me Gurley doesn't have the best vision but the rest of his game makes up for it. Like Lacy, I would say if Gurley goes to an above average offense he is ready to go. If he goes somewhere with a bad o-line and bad QB I don't think he's the type of can't-miss guy like AP that can run wild on a bad team against stacked boxes every play. Not to say he will be a bust, but he might not be the best RB out of this class in that scenario imo.

Hmmm. I always thought his vision was one of his best attributes. I drafted Trent high (1.03), and of his many deficiencies his vision is possibly the worst thing about him. Ever since then, I've been trying to pay attention to this. Any specific plays/games where you noticed this?

Or do you think it's a matter of him seeing a closing hole and saying to himself "I'm good enough to power through that closing hole" vs. "that hole is open"?

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Hmmm. I always thought his vision was one of his best attributes. I drafted Trent high (1.03), and of his many deficiencies his vision is possibly the worst thing about him. Ever since then, I've been trying to pay attention to this. Any specific plays/games where you noticed this?

Or do you think it's a matter of him seeing a closing hole and saying to himself "I'm good enough to power through that closing hole" vs. "that hole is open"?

I talked about it in my other thread about tape watching, one play in particular had me just bewildered I don't remember the exact game but he basically had a walk-in touchdown from 5-10 yards out and he veered right for no reason and ran into the back of his own blocker. It was bizarre, he bounced off and still ran in for the td but I saw several plays like that where I threw my hands up in the air like "what you are DOING!?" I would say he ran into the back of his own blockers more than any other rb i watched. The problem with TRich was that he danced and I don't think Gurley dances which solves most of the TRich problem. the other half of that problem was TRich was fat and lazy and I don't think Gurley is that either. Here is my review of Gurley if you're interested

Todd Gurley - Good receiving skills. Sells his routes well. Decent enough pass blocker. Questionable vision. Don't think I've seen another rb that runs into his blockers as much as Gurley. When in doubt he runs in a straight line, sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't. When given a choice of 2 lanes equidistant from each other, chooses the wrong one a lot of the time. Decent agility, but has smooth hips/fluid and can make a good cut when he has to. Has a very nice jumpcut that doesn't cost him too much speed unlike a lot of the other Rb's I've watched. Not the best burst, seems to take him a while to get up to full speed. Runs with the lowest pad level I've seen for such a tall guy which gives him good running power. Always falling forward. Much of his power seems to come from his size, speed and running style, meaning at lower speeds he is much easier to corral. Smaller defensive players can't bring him down 1 on 1 once he gets going. Very good speed but not great, similar to Gordon maybe a little faster. Wish I had the metrics on him so I could "make sure"...

[Cameron Giles]

I like Gurley's talent very much, and much of the draft experts like him. However, that doesn't translate very well to fantasy production. The last decade has been very tough on the top rated rookie RBs:

2015 Gurley Gordon
2014 Sankey Hyde
2013 Bernard Montee Ball
2012 Richardson Martin
2011 Ingram Thomas
2010 Mathews Jahvid Best
2009 Moreno Wells
2008 McFadden Mendenhall
2007 Peterson Lynch
2006 Bush Addai

Many of these players were talked about with similar comments to what is being said about Gurley (i.e. best prospect since ...)

IMO: "Can't miss" prospects are very rare, and may not exist at the RB position.

Counter: How do we know he isn't of the Peterson/Lynch variety rather than the Richardson/Ingram/Mendenhall? I never liked most of the RB's on that list to begin with. I like the Steven Jackson comparison a lot.