Travis Kelce's Official Discussion Thread

[QuintorrisLopezJones]

I think Kelce becomes a perenial top 5 TE even with Reid at the helm (who has never really been good to his TE's). I would just like to comment about TE's being QB dependent. This is false. A TE's numbers are really only dependent on the O-line. If there's a bad O-line, the TE has to stay in and block. A TE's best friend may infact be the bad quarterback as they can't throw it very far down the field with much accuracy (for example, Olsen's best game(s?) of the season came with Anderson at QB). Plus, bad QB's usually result in playing for behind, which allows TE's to soak up those garbage 10 yard dumps in the 4th quarter.

Well for 1, throwing olsen in there while commenting on the line contradicts itself given how horrible theirs were, but thats not my point.
In theord, yes, having a bad qb and being their dump down guy could be a TE's best friend. But this very often caps a TE as a good, but not a difference maker, being in the range of a top 5 or so TE isnt a bit asset, there are simply so many tes who put up similar numbers, but only guys like gronk jimmy and JT (while hes with peyton) are huge consistent positional advantages. Guys like olsen, bennett, walker, kelce, vernon, gates, cameron, etc all have good years to various consistencies, But whats the real difference between them on a year in and out basis? I hope kelce becomes a stud, i realllyyyy do. But if its not gronk or jimmy, and year to year as JT is with peyton, what is the big difference between all of them? That is the point im trying to make. you can be good, and a beneficiary of a bad defence bad qb etc, but to be a great difference making (fantasy) te, the QB/ offence is everything.

[TommyL31]

Right but I'm saying TE is the extreme of that. All those guys settling for short and intermediate routes from qbs who need a security blanket aren't real difference makers. There are so many start able guys. But the elite are almost always tied to the qb. Whereas other positions I feel like you have a lot more outliers. No amount of kelce Camerons reeds etc will ever be a gronk. Kelce could be a great TE, maybe a 80/900/8 sort of guy. But that doesn't offer a great advantage over guys you can grab year in and year out.

I agree with this and think the point is well made.

I will say that I'm blown away by the amount of people who seem to be implying that JT isn't in the same realm as Gronk and Graham. So I'll say that I think Gronk is in a category by himself as the things he does to defenders after the catch is out of this world but when I see Jimmy Graham I see a player with maybe a fraction more talent than JT (although I'm not sure I even believe that) who both have elite QBs throwing to them. Main stat difference is:
a) Julius plays with a QB who tends to throw more TDs (advantage Julius)
b) Graham has WAY less competition for targets. He's the first option in New Orleans ahead of Colston, Cooks, and Stills. Julius is behind Demaryius and Sanders. (advantage Jimmy)

I can see someone arguing that Julius would get more targets if he could prove he is better than Sanders as Jimmy has with his receivers but I think it's undeniable that Demaryius is head and shoulders above any WR on New Orleans.

In terms of efficiency,
Graham caught 68% of his targets for 10.45 ypc.
Thomas caught 69% of his targets for 11.37 ypc.

In terms of the eye test, I think people are holding the end of this season against Thomas when he came back and was clearly playing injured. Over the past couple of years I think Thomas is just as good (or very close) to the physical abilities of Graham.

Now all that being said, Graham is absolutely the better fantasy asset both because he's been doing it for longer so he's safer but also because in addition to Graham's situation being better even if JT and Peyton both stay in Denver, Thomas has the situation uncertainty. But if we're talking situation independent I would say Graham, Thomas, and Kelce are all in a similar tier below Gronk. I'd even put Gates in that 2nd tier but who knows how much longer he'll hold up.

[QuintorrisLopezJones]

Right but I'm saying TE is the extreme of that. All those guys settling for short and intermediate routes from qbs who need a security blanket aren't real difference makers. There are so many start able guys. But the elite are almost always tied to the qb. Whereas other positions I feel like you have a lot more outliers. No amount of kelce Camerons reeds etc will ever be a gronk. Kelce could be a great TE, maybe a 80/900/8 sort of guy. But that doesn't offer a great advantage over guys you can grab year in and year out.

I agree with this and think the point is well made.

I will say that I'm blown away by the amount of people who seem to be implying that JT isn't in the same realm as Gronk and Graham. So I'll say that I think Gronk is in a category by himself as the things he does to defenders after the catch is out of this world but when I see Jimmy Graham I see a player with maybe a fraction more talent than JT (although I'm not sure I even believe that) who both have elite QBs throwing to them. Main stat difference is:
a) Julius plays with a QB who tends to throw more TDs (advantage Julius)
b) Graham has WAY less competition for targets. He's the first option in New Orleans ahead of Colston, Cooks, and Stills. Julius is behind Demaryius and Sanders. (advantage Jimmy)

I can see someone arguing that Julius would get more targets if he could prove he is better than Sanders as Jimmy has with his receivers but I think it's undeniable that Demaryius is head and shoulders above any WR on New Orleans.

In terms of efficiency,
Graham caught 68% of his targets for 10.45 ypc.
Thomas caught 69% of his targets for 11.37 ypc.

In terms of the eye test, I think people are holding the end of this season against Thomas when he came back and was clearly playing injured. Over the past couple of years I think Thomas is just as good (or very close) to the physical abilities of Graham.

Now all that being said, Graham is absolutely the better fantasy asset both because he's been doing it for longer so he's safer but also because in addition to Graham's situation being better even if JT and Peyton both stay in Denver, Thomas has the situation uncertainty. But if we're talking situation independent I would say Graham, Thomas, and Kelce are all in a similar tier below Gronk. I'd even put Gates in that 2nd tier but who knows how much longer he'll hold up.

The big difference to me is 3 things:
1. JT hasnt dominated as much as it feels like for a full season. Lot of Tds but not the yards (smaller sample though)
2. He's a FA on a team needing to pay other players (DT) as well as increasing salaries for Harris and Miller this year. I think hes probably gone unless his injury lowered his price a lot
3. I really think peytons 50/50 for next year and way less for any longer

[TommyL31]

Right but I'm saying TE is the extreme of that. All those guys settling for short and intermediate routes from qbs who need a security blanket aren't real difference makers. There are so many start able guys. But the elite are almost always tied to the qb. Whereas other positions I feel like you have a lot more outliers. No amount of kelce Camerons reeds etc will ever be a gronk. Kelce could be a great TE, maybe a 80/900/8 sort of guy. But that doesn't offer a great advantage over guys you can grab year in and year out.

I agree with this and think the point is well made.

I will say that I'm blown away by the amount of people who seem to be implying that JT isn't in the same realm as Gronk and Graham. So I'll say that I think Gronk is in a category by himself as the things he does to defenders after the catch is out of this world but when I see Jimmy Graham I see a player with maybe a fraction more talent than JT (although I'm not sure I even believe that) who both have elite QBs throwing to them. Main stat difference is:
a) Julius plays with a QB who tends to throw more TDs (advantage Julius)
b) Graham has WAY less competition for targets. He's the first option in New Orleans ahead of Colston, Cooks, and Stills. Julius is behind Demaryius and Sanders. (advantage Jimmy)

I can see someone arguing that Julius would get more targets if he could prove he is better than Sanders as Jimmy has with his receivers but I think it's undeniable that Demaryius is head and shoulders above any WR on New Orleans.

In terms of efficiency,
Graham caught 68% of his targets for 10.45 ypc.
Thomas caught 69% of his targets for 11.37 ypc.

In terms of the eye test, I think people are holding the end of this season against Thomas when he came back and was clearly playing injured. Over the past couple of years I think Thomas is just as good (or very close) to the physical abilities of Graham.

Now all that being said, Graham is absolutely the better fantasy asset both because he's been doing it for longer so he's safer but also because in addition to Graham's situation being better even if JT and Peyton both stay in Denver, Thomas has the situation uncertainty. But if we're talking situation independent I would say Graham, Thomas, and Kelce are all in a similar tier below Gronk. I'd even put Gates in that 2nd tier but who knows how much longer he'll hold up.

The big difference to me is 3 things:
1. JT hasnt dominated as much as it feels like for a full season. Lot of Tds but not the yards (smaller sample though)
2. He's a FA on a team needing to pay other players (DT) as well as increasing salaries for Harris and Miller this year. I think hes probably gone unless his injury lowered his price a lot
3. I really think peytons 50/50 for next year and way less for any longer

I completely agree that he hasn't put up the yards but my point above was that's largely a product of Julius having way better competition for targets than Jimmy Graham. I agree that Graham should be valued higher because he's in a great (and relatively stable) situation and JT isn't. My problem is people claiming there's a huge talent gap between the two (or Graham and Kelce for that matter). I just don't think it's the case at all. And while Thomas probably won't have the same TD upside next year my guess is he's going to get paid by a team that will make him much more central to the offense. Still not as good as being central to an offense headed by Drew Brees most likely.

And in terms of the talent gap, I'm struggling to understand if Thomas is such a product of Peyton why were VIrgil Green and Jacob Tamme useless when Thomas was out?

[maynard046]

The topic has started to change a bit, but going back to the Alex Smith comments; I think he's an ok QB, but he doesn't throw the deep seam, and remember the 70 yard preseason TD that got everyone excited last year? That pass was thrown by Aaron Murray, and not a pass that Smith will typically attempt. I love Kelce and would put him at TE4, but I do think his upside is limited until either Smith or Reid change.

[FantasyFreak]

The topic has started to change a bit, but going back to the Alex Smith comments; I think he's an ok QB, but he doesn't throw the deep seam, and remember the 70 yard preseason TD that got everyone excited last year? That pass was thrown by Aaron Murray, and not a pass that Smith will typically attempt. I love Kelce and would put him at TE4, but I do think his upside is limited until either Smith or Reid change.

Yeah, I need to see more from Kelce before I anoint him a top TE. He is good, but nowhere near Gronk, orr Graham, nor will he ever be IMO. Solid top ten, though, and right now, probably top 5.

[ebsteelers]

have gronk and kelce.

what kind of return are people looking for kelce?

[WhatWouldDitkaDo]

have gronk and kelce.

what kind of return are people looking for kelce?

A lot of people have been saying a late 1st for Kelce. However, as a fellow Gronk and Kelce owner, I'd need a high 1st. I see Kelce as Gronk injury insurance, and if Kelce blows up, I'll have the TE market cornered. If Kelce disappoints, he's still a decent TE1 at the worst, so it's not like I'm missing a "sell-high" window.

[captain_insano]

I think most agree Kelce has shown the talent to ascend. But his situation and systemcould be roadblocks to that happening in 2015. Fasano will still be there and Alex Smith is still the QB. Kelce would be great running seam routes, but Smith's strength isn't hitting them.

It's likely Kelce sees a few more targets in 2015 but I'd be (pleasantly) surprised if he posted much more than 75/925/7. While I'd love him to become a perennial top-5 TE, my gut says he's more akin to Greg Olsen than Gronk/Graham at least until 2017 when both Kelce and Fasano are free agents.

I think the situation and system may keep him from ever putting up Gronk or Graham type numbers but I do think he's capable of being the te3.

[ebsteelers]

have gronk and kelce.

what kind of return are people looking for kelce?

A lot of people have been saying a late 1st for Kelce. However, as a fellow Gronk and Kelce owner, I'd need a high 1st. I see Kelce as Gronk injury insurance, and if Kelce blows up, I'll have the TE market cornered. If Kelce disappoints, he's still a decent TE1 at the worst, so it's not like I'm missing a "sell-high" window.

yeah this is what i was thinking as well and wasnt sure if i was crazy or not.

Although Gronk didnt get hurt this year its not like he has a clean history in that department.
and having a Gronk "blocker" per say could be a huge advantage

[WhatWouldDitkaDo]

have gronk and kelce.

what kind of return are people looking for kelce?

A lot of people have been saying a late 1st for Kelce. However, as a fellow Gronk and Kelce owner, I'd need a high 1st. I see Kelce as Gronk injury insurance, and if Kelce blows up, I'll have the TE market cornered. If Kelce disappoints, he's still a decent TE1 at the worst, so it's not like I'm missing a "sell-high" window.

yeah this is what i was thinking as well and wasnt sure if i was crazy or not.

Although Gronk didnt get hurt this year its not like he has a clean history in that department.
and having a Gronk "blocker" per say could be a huge advantage

Yeah I love Gronk, but I have a mini heart attack every time he takes more than two seconds to get up after a play lol.

[pokerface40]

I am drinking the Kelce Kool-Aid. With Fasano leaving I already was but with the info that he wasn't 100% last year, I think he has a chance to supplant Graham as the 2nd best TE. Question: I am in a 12 man PPR startup with the 1.03 pick. Would it be absurd to take Kelce at 3.03? I don't see him falling to 4.10. I will most likely try and trade back with my 3.03 but if I can't should I bite the bullet and take Kelce there?

[CrimsonKodiak]

Its a little early to take Kelce at 3.03 (27 pick right?) see if you can bump down to the 4th by offering your 3.03 for the 4.08/9/10 and a sweetner like 7.xx 8.xx.

I think Kelce is set for a a great few years ahead of him

[Titus Young's Lawyer]

I think Kelce is a great dynasty asset but I would not be counting on him to have a 80/1000/10 season. There are more receiving options in KC now and it is still Alex Smith at QB.

[Fezzik]

Pick your guy, but I would not take him that high. I'd go WR or RB there. For me, he's just one of the guys I won't end up owning b/c of the price.

He has sat out an entire season with a knee injury... people have been called injury prone for less. He has had one season as the TE9. He has demonstrated excellent athleticism and skills. He is desirable to own... it's just thatbut you're not pricing any of the downside with him into what you're willing to pay. It's my opinion that you're drinking too much of the Koolaid. But you're not alone in that.