Valuing QBs long-term
Valuing QBs long-term
I'm curious how you guys place value on quarterbacks, specifically top-tier QBs regardless of age. Can anyone give me their top 5-10 QB rankings for this year and future?
I'm also wondering what it would take to trade for guys like Wilson, Kaepernick, Newton, etc.
Do you guys place QB value ahead of RB but behind WR or TE?
Is the value of Kaepernick closer to Dez Bryant or someone like Brandon Marshall or maybe Jeremy Maclin?
I'm not looking to move on from Stafford, but I'm curious to know what other QB owners might be looking for.
I'm also wondering what it would take to trade for guys like Wilson, Kaepernick, Newton, etc.
Do you guys place QB value ahead of RB but behind WR or TE?
Is the value of Kaepernick closer to Dez Bryant or someone like Brandon Marshall or maybe Jeremy Maclin?
I'm not looking to move on from Stafford, but I'm curious to know what other QB owners might be looking for.
7th year Dynasty Team. 1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 2FLEX 1D 1K
QB - Mahomes, Watson, Stafford
RB - Hunt, Fournette, Drake, Gio B
WR - Hopkins, K Allen, Boyd, K Cole, Enunwa, Funchess, A Robinson, Sutton
TE - Burton, Herndon
D/ST - Broncos, Jets
K - Maher, Myers
QB - Mahomes, Watson, Stafford
RB - Hunt, Fournette, Drake, Gio B
WR - Hopkins, K Allen, Boyd, K Cole, Enunwa, Funchess, A Robinson, Sutton
TE - Burton, Herndon
D/ST - Broncos, Jets
K - Maher, Myers
Re: Valuing QBs long-term
I don't think you can make a definitive list of how they value against other players. Especially because every league is different in regards to size of league, starting requirements and so forth. Every owner also values every player differently.
My personal QB rankings though as it stands right now (although I'm sure new QBs will emerge);
This year only;
1) Peyton Manning
2) Aaron Rodgers
3) Andrew Luck
4) Russell Wilson
5) Philip Rivers
The next 5 years;
1) Aaron Rodgers
2) Andrew Luck
3) Russell Wilson
4) Cam Newton
5) Matthew Stafford
My personal QB rankings though as it stands right now (although I'm sure new QBs will emerge);
This year only;
1) Peyton Manning
2) Aaron Rodgers
3) Andrew Luck
4) Russell Wilson
5) Philip Rivers
The next 5 years;
1) Aaron Rodgers
2) Andrew Luck
3) Russell Wilson
4) Cam Newton
5) Matthew Stafford
Re: Valuing QBs long-term
1. Luck
2. Rodgers
3. Wilson
4. Stafford
5. Cam
There are lot's of QB's and in a 12 team league only 12 start, so that leaves another 5-6 startable QB's on the shelf each week. I value them below elite WR's but they are my next highest position because of their longevity. I've always had elite QB's (Peyton/Brees/Stafford) and would highly recommend it. It's nice knowing each and every week you have an advantage at that one position.
For my rankings, it's all about age. Sure Peyton/Brees will put up monster numbers, but Peyton has a year or 2 max and Brees is at 3-4 so it's just a numbers game. Rodgers is the oldest and will be 31, but i think he can also play until he's 38-40 which gives him a long window still.
2. Rodgers
3. Wilson
4. Stafford
5. Cam
There are lot's of QB's and in a 12 team league only 12 start, so that leaves another 5-6 startable QB's on the shelf each week. I value them below elite WR's but they are my next highest position because of their longevity. I've always had elite QB's (Peyton/Brees/Stafford) and would highly recommend it. It's nice knowing each and every week you have an advantage at that one position.
For my rankings, it's all about age. Sure Peyton/Brees will put up monster numbers, but Peyton has a year or 2 max and Brees is at 3-4 so it's just a numbers game. Rodgers is the oldest and will be 31, but i think he can also play until he's 38-40 which gives him a long window still.
1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/1Flex (RB/WR/TE)/1 Superflex (QB/RB/WR/TE)
'Ships: 2008, 2017, 2019, 2021; 2nd place: 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022
12 team PPR with 14 Keepers/year
2023 Draft Picks: 1.04, 1.05, 1.11, 3.04, 3.07, 5.04
QB: L.Jackson, J. Burrow, G. Minshew, J. Winston
RB: J.Mixon, ETN, Jav.Williams, J.Conner, Z.Moss, JK Dobbins (IR), N.Chubb (IR)
WR: AJB, CD Lamb, DK, C.Sutton
TE: M.Andrews, T.McBride, I. Likely
'Ships: 2008, 2017, 2019, 2021; 2nd place: 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022
12 team PPR with 14 Keepers/year
2023 Draft Picks: 1.04, 1.05, 1.11, 3.04, 3.07, 5.04
QB: L.Jackson, J. Burrow, G. Minshew, J. Winston
RB: J.Mixon, ETN, Jav.Williams, J.Conner, Z.Moss, JK Dobbins (IR), N.Chubb (IR)
WR: AJB, CD Lamb, DK, C.Sutton
TE: M.Andrews, T.McBride, I. Likely
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Re: Valuing QBs long-term
Top 10 fantasy QBs now:
1. Manning
2. Rodgers
3. Luck
4. Brees
5. Wilson
6. Rivers
7. Romo
8. Brady
9. Romo
10. Cutler
Top 10 fantasy QBs in 5 years (not counting rookies that will play their way onto the list:
1. Luck
2. Rodgers
3. Wilson
4. Bortles
5. Newton
6. Kaepernick
7. RGIII
8. Stafford
9. Foles
10. Tannehill
I'd say the top 3 are "Elite", the next 3 are "possibly elite" and the bottom 4 are "good but not great".
Future value wise, I'd say, for me:
Elite WR (Thomas, Bryant, Green tier)
Elite RB (Bernard, McCoy, Charles tier)
Elite QB (Luck, Rodgers, Wilson)
Elite TE (Graham, Gronk)
2nd tier WR (Floyd, Jeffrey, Gordon tier)
Possibly Elite QB (Kaepernick, Newton, Bortles)
2nd tier RB (Hill, Hyde, Miller tier)
1. Manning
2. Rodgers
3. Luck
4. Brees
5. Wilson
6. Rivers
7. Romo
8. Brady
9. Romo
10. Cutler
Top 10 fantasy QBs in 5 years (not counting rookies that will play their way onto the list:
1. Luck
2. Rodgers
3. Wilson
4. Bortles
5. Newton
6. Kaepernick
7. RGIII
8. Stafford
9. Foles
10. Tannehill
I'd say the top 3 are "Elite", the next 3 are "possibly elite" and the bottom 4 are "good but not great".
Future value wise, I'd say, for me:
Elite WR (Thomas, Bryant, Green tier)
Elite RB (Bernard, McCoy, Charles tier)
Elite QB (Luck, Rodgers, Wilson)
Elite TE (Graham, Gronk)
2nd tier WR (Floyd, Jeffrey, Gordon tier)
Possibly Elite QB (Kaepernick, Newton, Bortles)
2nd tier RB (Hill, Hyde, Miller tier)
Re: Valuing QBs long-term
Interesting to see Bortles a top 5 QB in 5 years over guys like Newton and Stafford. Any logic there, or just a hunch he's going to break out soon?hailtoyourvictor wrote: Top 10 fantasy QBs in 5 years (not counting rookies that will play their way onto the list:
1. Luck
2. Rodgers
3. Wilson
4. Bortles
5. Newton
6. Kaepernick
7. RGIII
8. Stafford
9. Foles
10. Tannehill
If you were a Bortles owner, what would it take to move him today?
7th year Dynasty Team. 1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 2FLEX 1D 1K
QB - Mahomes, Watson, Stafford
RB - Hunt, Fournette, Drake, Gio B
WR - Hopkins, K Allen, Boyd, K Cole, Enunwa, Funchess, A Robinson, Sutton
TE - Burton, Herndon
D/ST - Broncos, Jets
K - Maher, Myers
QB - Mahomes, Watson, Stafford
RB - Hunt, Fournette, Drake, Gio B
WR - Hopkins, K Allen, Boyd, K Cole, Enunwa, Funchess, A Robinson, Sutton
TE - Burton, Herndon
D/ST - Broncos, Jets
K - Maher, Myers
Re: Valuing QBs long-term
This. Comparing QBs to other positions of course depends on how many QBs you can start, how many RB/WR/TEs you have to start, and scoring for each.PhadedCN wrote:I don't think you can make a definitive list of how they value against other players. Especially because every league is different in regards to size of league, starting requirements and so forth.
But even among QBs, league size and superflex make a difference. In a 10-team, 1 QB league, I probably have Peyton as my dynasty QB3. But in a 12-team superflex, he may fall into the QB8-QB12 range.
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Re: Valuing QBs long-term
hailtoyourvictor wrote:Top 10 fantasy QBs now:
1. Manning
2. Rodgers
3. Luck
4. Brees
5. Wilson
6. Rivers
7. Romo
8. Brady
9. Romo
10. Cutler
Top 10 fantasy QBs in 5 years (not counting rookies that will play their way onto the list:
1. Luck
2. Rodgers
3. Wilson
4. Bortles
5. Newton
6. Kaepernick
7. RGIII
8. Stafford
9. Foles
10. Tannehill
I'd say the top 3 are "Elite", the next 3 are "possibly elite" and the bottom 4 are "good but not great".
Future value wise, I'd say, for me:
Elite WR (Thomas, Bryant, Green tier)
Elite RB (Bernard, McCoy, Charles tier)
Elite QB (Luck, Rodgers, Wilson)
Elite TE (Graham, Gronk)
2nd tier WR (Floyd, Jeffrey, Gordon tier)
Possibly Elite QB (Kaepernick, Newton, Bortles)
2nd tier RB (Hill, Hyde, Miller tier)
Am I alone in thinking Leveon Bell is in the elite RB dynasty category?
Journal of my first orphan rebuild. If you're in a rebuild and want to get ideas or give some, feel free.
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=92442
QB: Andrew Luck,Andy Dalton, Brett Hundley, Trevor Siemian
RB: Lamar Miller, Eddie Lacy,Carlos Hyde,Dion Lewis, Mark Ingram, Thomas Rawls,Terrell Watson, Legarette Blount, Daniel Lasco, DJ Foster
WR: Deandre Hopkins,Alshon Jeffrey,Randall Cobb,Kelvin Benjamin,Jarvis Landry, Devante Parker, Tyrell Williams,
TE: Greg Olsen, Eric Ebron,Julius Thomas
D: Denver, Baltimore
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=92442
QB: Andrew Luck,Andy Dalton, Brett Hundley, Trevor Siemian
RB: Lamar Miller, Eddie Lacy,Carlos Hyde,Dion Lewis, Mark Ingram, Thomas Rawls,Terrell Watson, Legarette Blount, Daniel Lasco, DJ Foster
WR: Deandre Hopkins,Alshon Jeffrey,Randall Cobb,Kelvin Benjamin,Jarvis Landry, Devante Parker, Tyrell Williams,
TE: Greg Olsen, Eric Ebron,Julius Thomas
D: Denver, Baltimore
Re: Valuing QBs long-term
You're not. I have it McCoy, Bell, Charles at the moment with Bernard a hair behind.Swampdonkey17 wrote:hailtoyourvictor wrote:Top 10 fantasy QBs now:
1. Manning
2. Rodgers
3. Luck
4. Brees
5. Wilson
6. Rivers
7. Romo
8. Brady
9. Romo
10. Cutler
Top 10 fantasy QBs in 5 years (not counting rookies that will play their way onto the list:
1. Luck
2. Rodgers
3. Wilson
4. Bortles
5. Newton
6. Kaepernick
7. RGIII
8. Stafford
9. Foles
10. Tannehill
I'd say the top 3 are "Elite", the next 3 are "possibly elite" and the bottom 4 are "good but not great".
Future value wise, I'd say, for me:
Elite WR (Thomas, Bryant, Green tier)
Elite RB (Bernard, McCoy, Charles tier)
Elite QB (Luck, Rodgers, Wilson)
Elite TE (Graham, Gronk)
2nd tier WR (Floyd, Jeffrey, Gordon tier)
Possibly Elite QB (Kaepernick, Newton, Bortles)
2nd tier RB (Hill, Hyde, Miller tier)
Am I alone in thinking Leveon Bell is in the elite RB dynasty category?
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Formerly posting as Steveeb
Formerly posting as Steveeb
Re: Valuing QBs long-term
Point taken. I think I'm just curious about trade values and how they compare in your league, not necessarily in general. I understand value differs greatly based on league configuration, but that can be said about any position and we talk about other positions value often on this site.Jules wrote:This. Comparing QBs to other positions of course depends on how many QBs you can start, how many RB/WR/TEs you have to start, and scoring for each.PhadedCN wrote:I don't think you can make a definitive list of how they value against other players. Especially because every league is different in regards to size of league, starting requirements and so forth.
But even among QBs, league size and superflex make a difference. In a 10-team, 1 QB league, I probably have Peyton as my dynasty QB3. But in a 12-team superflex, he may fall into the QB8-QB12 range.
I just see QB conversation is lacking on this site, probably because they don't get moved often and their value is fairly consistent year over year. However I'm faced with a decision soon on what to do with my QB and I want to have a conversation about how to attain a long term QB.
7th year Dynasty Team. 1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 2FLEX 1D 1K
QB - Mahomes, Watson, Stafford
RB - Hunt, Fournette, Drake, Gio B
WR - Hopkins, K Allen, Boyd, K Cole, Enunwa, Funchess, A Robinson, Sutton
TE - Burton, Herndon
D/ST - Broncos, Jets
K - Maher, Myers
QB - Mahomes, Watson, Stafford
RB - Hunt, Fournette, Drake, Gio B
WR - Hopkins, K Allen, Boyd, K Cole, Enunwa, Funchess, A Robinson, Sutton
TE - Burton, Herndon
D/ST - Broncos, Jets
K - Maher, Myers
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Re: Valuing QBs long-term
Full disclosure is that I'm a Jaguars fan, though I do like the Lions too. Bortles has shown that he has the qualities you look for in a franchise QB. As a passer, it's hard not to compare him to Roethlisberger. Bortles offers more than Big Ben does, from a fantasy perspective, because he also has abilities to make plays with his feet. In 4.5 games, Bortles has 143 yards rushing. I think Bortles will be a regular 400 yard / 4-5 rushing TD QB, where as Roethlisberger has only eclipsed 100 yards 4 times.cdubbaya wrote:Interesting to see Bortles a top 5 QB in 5 years over guys like Newton and Stafford. Any logic there, or just a hunch he's going to break out soon?hailtoyourvictor wrote: Top 10 fantasy QBs in 5 years (not counting rookies that will play their way onto the list:
1. Luck
2. Rodgers
3. Wilson
4. Bortles
5. Newton
6. Kaepernick
7. RGIII
8. Stafford
9. Foles
10. Tannehill
If you were a Bortles owner, what would it take to move him today?
The situation in Jacksonville is bad now, but the organization is committed to Bortles. Three of BB5 (what we call him)'s top WRs are rookies (Hurns, Robinson, and Lee). Bortles and his WRs should hit their primes in stride.
I am just not a huge Newton fan. Stafford is way too inconsistant and his value drops when he loses the best WR of our era.
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Re: Valuing QBs long-term
Nope. I just kept it to 2-3 position players to give the jist. It's a QB ranking thread, so I didn't feel like breaking every position into complete tiers.Swampdonkey17 wrote:hailtoyourvictor wrote:Top 10 fantasy QBs now:
1. Manning
2. Rodgers
3. Luck
4. Brees
5. Wilson
6. Rivers
7. Romo
8. Brady
9. Romo
10. Cutler
Top 10 fantasy QBs in 5 years (not counting rookies that will play their way onto the list:
1. Luck
2. Rodgers
3. Wilson
4. Bortles
5. Newton
6. Kaepernick
7. RGIII
8. Stafford
9. Foles
10. Tannehill
I'd say the top 3 are "Elite", the next 3 are "possibly elite" and the bottom 4 are "good but not great".
Future value wise, I'd say, for me:
Elite WR (Thomas, Bryant, Green tier)
Elite RB (Bernard, McCoy, Charles tier)
Elite QB (Luck, Rodgers, Wilson)
Elite TE (Graham, Gronk)
2nd tier WR (Floyd, Jeffrey, Gordon tier)
Possibly Elite QB (Kaepernick, Newton, Bortles)
2nd tier RB (Hill, Hyde, Miller tier)
Am I alone in thinking Leveon Bell is in the elite RB dynasty category?
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Re: Valuing QBs long-term
I'll speak from my perspective here seeing as how I see things shaping up similarly from Bortles. Basically, from watching the games as well as the preseason, Bortles looks like a legit star quarterback in the making. He does things well beyond his years, and while he has thrown quite a few interceptions already, you could pretty much expect that considering how aggressive he is down the field. As soon as the receivers and o-line around him improve (which both groups are playing quite a lot of rookies), Bortles is going to blow up. He is also very, very good on his feet while keeping his eyes down field.cdubbaya wrote: Interesting to see Bortles a top 5 QB in 5 years over guys like Newton and Stafford. Any logic there, or just a hunch he's going to break out soon?
If you were a Bortles owner, what would it take to move him today?
The best way to describe Bortles I've heard so far is to call him a "Mini Luck," and that's what he is. The Roethlisberger comparisons make a lot of sense in some ways, but his point upside seems far, far superior than Ben. On the downside, I think there is a chance he becomes the Brett Favre of the new generation, and throws way too many picks by being too aggressive to be an elite QB consistently, but that's my only real concern, and I think that will likely wash away with receivers capable of going up and getting the ball for him.
Considering how difficult it is to find QBs and not bust on them, it would take quite a lot to get Bortles away if I was an owner, especially in a 2 QB league or a deeper league where the value of QBs rises. I wouldn't trade him for two blind 1st round picks in a 12-team 2 QB. And depending on if my roster was rebuilding or trying to win immediately, I likely would not trade him for someone like Stafford, who is also young but has proven time and time again he has problems scoring elite QB numbers when Calvin isn't healthy. Bortles also uses his legs enough, and well enough that it's a significant contribution to his bottom line.
Last edited by snitchinsider on Wed Oct 22, 2014 10:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Bortles drum banger.
Re: Valuing QBs long-term
From a ranking style standpoint, I have trouble with giving a straight list of QBs. Peyton is worth nothing to me unless I'm competing, even in a 1 year window. I feel like rankings should be given based on team status as well. IE QB rankings for a contending team vs. QB rankings for a rebuilding team. I don't have time to flesh this out at the moment or I would.
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Re: Valuing QBs long-term
I'm not sure I agree or disagree, but it would be an impressive turn of events for Jacksonville to have a top 5 QB. I'm used to years of not trusting anyone in a Jags uniform.snitchinsider wrote:I'll speak from my perspective here seeing as how I see things shaping up similarly from Bortles. Basically, from watching the games as well as the preseason, Bortles looks like a legit star quarterback in the making. He does things well beyond his years, and while he has thrown quite a few interceptions already, you could pretty much expect that considering how aggressive he is down the field. As soon as the receivers and o-line around him improve (which both groups are playing quite a lot of rookies), Bortles is going to blow up. He is also very, very good on his feet while keeping his eyes down field.cdubbaya wrote: Interesting to see Bortles a top 5 QB in 5 years over guys like Newton and Stafford. Any logic there, or just a hunch he's going to break out soon?
If you were a Bortles owner, what would it take to move him today?
The best way to describe Bortles I've heard so far is to call him a "Mini Luck," and that's what he is. The Roethlisberger comparisons make a lot of sense in some ways, but his point upside seems far, far superior than Ben. On the downside, I think there is a chance he becomes the Brett Favre of the new generation, and throws way too many picks by being too aggressive to be an elite QB consistently, but that's my only real concern, and I think that will likely wash away with receivers capable of going up and getting the ball for him.
Considering how difficult it is to find QBs and not bust on them, it would take quite a lot to get Bortles away if I was an owner, especially in a 2 QB league or a deeper league where the value of QBs rises. I wouldn't trade him for two blind 1st round picks in a 12-team 2 QB. And depending on if my roster was rebuilding or trying to win immediately, I likely would not trade him for someone like Stafford, who is also young but has proven time and time again he has problems scoring elite QB numbers when Calvin isn't healthy. Bortles also uses his legs enough, and well enough that it's a significant contribution to his bottom line.
7th year Dynasty Team. 1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 2FLEX 1D 1K
QB - Mahomes, Watson, Stafford
RB - Hunt, Fournette, Drake, Gio B
WR - Hopkins, K Allen, Boyd, K Cole, Enunwa, Funchess, A Robinson, Sutton
TE - Burton, Herndon
D/ST - Broncos, Jets
K - Maher, Myers
QB - Mahomes, Watson, Stafford
RB - Hunt, Fournette, Drake, Gio B
WR - Hopkins, K Allen, Boyd, K Cole, Enunwa, Funchess, A Robinson, Sutton
TE - Burton, Herndon
D/ST - Broncos, Jets
K - Maher, Myers
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Re: Valuing QBs long-term
I agree that QB discussion can sometimes be lacking, but I have to disagree with the bolded. I think QB value relative to other positions and picks faces much, much more fluctuation dependent on league size / roster size / starting requirements / scoring setup than any other position. PPR, 3 WR + Flex, 1.5 PPR for TE etc. all require adjustments for RB/WR/TE value, sure, but they're nothing compared to the difference between say a 10 team 1 QB league vs. a 12 team superflex or 2 QB league.cdubbaya wrote: Point taken. I think I'm just curious about trade values and how they compare in your league, not necessarily in general. I understand value differs greatly based on league configuration, but that can be said about any position and we talk about other positions value often on this site.
I just see QB conversation is lacking on this site, probably because they don't get moved often and their value is fairly consistent year over year. However I'm faced with a decision soon on what to do with my QB and I want to have a conversation about how to attain a long term QB.
12 teams, QB-premium scoring, start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K. * = taxi squad.
QBs: Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, Baker Mayfield, Tua Tagovailoa*, AJ McCarron*, Chad Kelly*, DeShone Kizer*
RBs: Alvin Kamara, Zeke Elliott, James Robinson, Phillip Lindsay, Matt Breida, Jonathan Taylor*, JK Dobbins*, Derrius Guice*, D'Onta Foreman*
WRs: Mike Evans, Amari Cooper, Diontae Johnson, Brandin Cooks, Jamison Crowder, Deebo Samuel*, Parris Campbell*, Miles Boykin*, Denzel Mims*
TEs: Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews
K: who cares
QBs: Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, Baker Mayfield, Tua Tagovailoa*, AJ McCarron*, Chad Kelly*, DeShone Kizer*
RBs: Alvin Kamara, Zeke Elliott, James Robinson, Phillip Lindsay, Matt Breida, Jonathan Taylor*, JK Dobbins*, Derrius Guice*, D'Onta Foreman*
WRs: Mike Evans, Amari Cooper, Diontae Johnson, Brandin Cooks, Jamison Crowder, Deebo Samuel*, Parris Campbell*, Miles Boykin*, Denzel Mims*
TEs: Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews
K: who cares
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