Julio Jones Thread: Traded to Tennessee

[balaberda]

Talking about TD numbers and a floor isn't possible.

You can use the floor and ceiling comparison for yardage but I don't think it works for TDs. (I would have loved to see Megatrons floor for this last year).

[Cy23]

Talking about TD numbers and a floor isn't possible.

You can use the floor and ceiling comparison for yardage but I don't think it works for TDs. (I would have loved to see Megatrons floor for this last year).

While I agree, I guess I should define what I mean by floor.

I think I would say that it is a box and whiskers plot with the floor being the low point of the box and the ceiling being the high point of the box. (Except the top whisker is just above the box, whereas the bottom whisker is much lower).

Obviously anyone can underperform in a big way, so I am not guaranteeing these. Just what I think is the most likely outcome. (And Calvin scoring only 5 TD yet setting the league record for yardage and catching 122 receptions is one of the most statistically improbable things I have ever seen)

[balaberda]

Ya I agree with that definition. There will always be outliers but I think many people use the floor TDs as they really assume that they will get that number quite confidently.

Too many also take one year of high production and just extrapolate that pattern for the next year. But in statistics you will never see a solid increase.

You will have ups and downs and the overall trend will either increase or decrease (but never drastic or consistent or predictable).

I also understand this is the point of it all is that we aren't sure and we are just guessing/ predicting these numbers but many people lack some serious logic when projecting numbers.

"This guy got 5 Tds last year and 10 this year..... I bet he gets 20 next year... and his floor is now 15TDs"

[Seventy5]

Just for the record, never did I once mention or say Dez was valued either similar, or higher then Julio. I said that after his rookie and sophmore year, if you tried to trade for him you were still having owners value him as a guy who could reach top 5 numbers eventually. That doesn't mean they expected to get a return like he was a top 5 player already. Julio has developed faster and hasn't had any off the field problems, it's not a surprise he's ranked higher and he always has been.


He would have picked up that I never said they were compared equally had he actually read and wasn't so quick to try and look cool and throw an insult.

But you own Dez, meaning you cannot speak intelligently about his play or value... Ha.

I don't care to look back and see how the debate started, but both guys were very highly coveted at some point. Dez's college tape and numbers were ridiculous and he was probably the #1 talent in your rookie drafts, along with Spiller.

Julio didn't really pick up steam until his incredible combine because Alabama ran a ton while he was there and 15 career receiving TDs doesn't stand out (Dez put up 19 in 2008 on a much more pass-happy spread attack).

Both guys were drafted to solid offenses with veterans at QB, TE and WR and have insane measurables. One guy was a little bit nuts while the other was quiet. Who cares what path they took to WR1 territory? They're there. They're pricey to acquire.

In all honesty, I think I may be an out of touch Bryant owner in that I prefer him to Julio. I have no problem being on record saying that.

I told one person in the advice thread I'd rather keep Dez than trade him away for a handful of picks because Dez is already a "top 2-4 WR" and then he popped up saying I was "extremely stupid and foolish to have Dez ranked that high." So I think that's where it "started." I guess he just really dislikes Dez?

I can see an argument being made for AJG, Dez, Julio, Demaryius, Harvin, and Marshall to be ranked in any order. I have them in that order, but they're so close the production could go either way and I'd be happy to have either one. When players are ranked that closely, it comes down to personal preference and how you weigh upside vs risks.

*my one and done :duel: post - I think it's funny how he is calling people out for ranking a player like Dez ahead of Marshall/Demaryius/Harvin saying its only because they own Dez, when in team 2 of his sig his WRs are Marshall/Demaryius/Harvin. Hmmmmmm........

[Cy23]

I told one person in the advice thread I'd rather keep Dez than trade him away for a handful of picks because Dez is already a "top 2-4 WR" and then he popped up saying I was "extremely stupid and foolish to have Dez ranked that high." So I think that's where it "started." I guess he just really dislikes Dez?

I can see an argument being made for AJG, Dez, Julio, Demaryius, Harvin, and Marshall to be ranked in any order. I have them in that order, but they're so close the production could go either way and I'd be happy to have either one. When players are ranked that closely, it comes down to personal preference and how you weigh upside vs risks.

*my one and done :duel: post - I think it's funny how he is calling people out for ranking a player like Dez ahead of Marshall/Demaryius/Harvin saying its only because they own Dez, when in team 2 of his sig his WRs are Marshall/Demaryius/Harvin. Hmmmmmm........

I tend to prefer certain guys, like I think AJ and Julio are preferable to Dez and Harvin because they seem to have better attitudes, but that doesn't mean any of them will score more or less than the others. People don't usually get that point, either-- if I say I consider a WR to be top 5, that doesn't guarantee that he will be in the top 5 at the end of the year. It means that I think he is the safest bet to produce near top 5 numbers-- a top 5 WR may end up #7 or #8 and I'll be thrilled with him. Likewise, a top 10 guy can score #14 and I'll be thrilled.

As the owner of Dez and Harvin in one of my dynasties, I am thrilled by your rankings. I am just sad that I traded Demaryius away to get Andre Johnson two years ago (he was still injured at the time).

[Seventy5]

I could go either way on them, if I was playing it safe for the long haul, I'd probably rank them AJG/Julio/Demaryius/Marshall/Dez/Percy. If I'm swinging for the fence playing to win and going off what I truly believe, I'd go AJG/Dez/Julio/Marshall/Demaryius/Percy. If I'm playing to win now, Marshall climbs up the list, if I'm looking to grab a player and eventually flip him for more than what I paid it would be Julio. Its pretty easy to come up with a reason to rank them in any order.

[lukeb]

In all honesty, I think I may be an out of touch Bryant owner in that I prefer him to Julio. I have no problem being on record saying that.

I said this a few pages ago. I prefer Dez to Julio. :cheers: Not many of us.

[CokeAndBacardi]

In all honesty, I think I may be an out of touch Bryant owner in that I prefer him to Julio. I have no problem being on record saying that.

I said this a few pages ago. I prefer Dez to Julio. :cheers: Not many of us.

The few. The proud. The Dez Duo.

[Seventy5]

In all honesty, I think I may be an out of touch Bryant owner in that I prefer him to Julio. I have no problem being on record saying that.

I said this a few pages ago. I prefer Dez to Julio. :cheers: Not many of us.

Add me to the club :grouphug:

Can't go wrong either way though. Both have massively high ceilings.

[Seventy5]

@beinginitself - all good man. I think your message just rubbed a few people the wrong way with the "asinine" comment. :cheers:

One things for sure,young flashy named WRs are definitely overvalued during the offseason.

[Chris_R]

While I enjoyed reading your rips of me all, I think my point is/was missed -- I was not seeking to compare Dez to Julio for sake of value, production, etc...my point is based on the "out of touch-ness" perception of owners. I have rarely, if even ever, come across an owner "out of touch" on Dez to where they would not take, say, Doug Martin for him straight up. I have, however, seen this with Julio owners....hence my "especially in the window as this thread is presented (i.e. owner's eyes)". That was my whole point and I said the arguemnt was unintelligible -- NOT a human being; to me it is unintelligible as it does not address this very point (the "out of touch[-ness]" as this thread was created for).

And I emphasized "STILL" not valued because of the very comparison in the stats above -- because of the very "out of touch" perception that belies what the stats say.

That was all. Boy, making a nuanced position here is just a wasted effort.

You made assumptions about my post that I never even made, which made me get a kick out of you calling my comment "unintelligible".

Dez was NEVER valued equally in the same fashion as Julio, especially in the window as the thread is presenting (i.e. owner's eyes)

Thing is, I never said this anywhere. So it didn't make much sense to me to go off on a tangent about something I never mentioned. I said "Dez was valued as a guy after his rookie and sophmore season as a player who could eventually be a top 5 WR". Where did you get any of what you said? It was all in response to someone mentioning Julio hasn't finished top 5 yet which I don't think is fair criticism, and most everyone would say he has potential to be that type of WR at some point.


And just for the record, I don't just have one fantasy football team I own Julio in 2 leagues, I shouldn't have to put 5 teams in my roster to make a point valid because I own or don't own a certain player.

[scott_peak]

I offered DWilson, Blackmon, Torrey, 2014 1st, 2014 2nd....... instantly rejected with owner saying I could add Shady to that list and he wouldn't do it.....

Wow. I'd give you Julio for that combo!

[lostcause]

While I enjoyed reading your rips of me all, I think my point is/was missed -- I was not seeking to compare Dez to Julio for sake of value, production, etc...my point is based on the "out of touch-ness" perception of owners. I have rarely, if even ever, come across an owner "out of touch" on Dez to where they would not take, say, Doug Martin for him straight up. I have, however, seen this with Julio owners....hence my "especially in the window as this thread is presented (i.e. owner's eyes)". That was my whole point and I said the arguemnt was unintelligible -- NOT a human being; to me it is unintelligible as it does not address this very point (the "out of touch[-ness]" as this thread was created for).

And I emphasized "STILL" not valued because of the very comparison in the stats above -- because of the very "out of touch" perception that belies what the stats say.

That was all. Boy, making a nuanced position here is just a wasted effort.

i would not trade Julio for Martin. Martin is not worth more to me than Julio.

[Chris_R]

To BELABOR the point, it is not that I said you said the above (refraining from quoting as to the length of response), its that I said your argurment, which was a comparative argument, was unitelligible because of the purpose behind the thread. People commented that Julio has not finished in the top 5 yet and that underscored just how out of touch Julio's owners are.

You presented Dez to show a comparable player not finishing in the top five in the same stretch of their careers -- this is not even responsive to the thread and the point made by those saying Julio didnt finish in the top 5 because what Dez lacks to make this an intelligible comparision is that his owners were never as out of touch as Julio's have demonstrated.

that is all. nuances.

sorry, edit: to add one other clarity, if its the case that Dez is brought into discussion to show how an underperformer for years can blossom later and thus why Julio owners are out of touch as they hope for the same, temporality restricts this -- people were way out of touch on Julio his 1st year, his 2nd year, etc -- all before Dez' blossoming. So, they were necessarily temporally restricted from making the same comparison that, I may be guessing here, may have been your point.

I still think the chain of post went by you and you completely missed what was said, because you twisted 1 line of what I said into a bunch of different arguments or comparisons that I never even tried to make but it's all good. Everytime you've explained you've made assumptions that I never made but for a quick summary:


Joeday: eventually if Julio doesn't post top 5 numbers the outrageous trade offers will start to dry up
Me: it's not really fair to hold it against a guy whose been in the league 2 years and hasn't finished top 5. It took Dez 3 years but even in his first 2 years you still had owners valueing him as a player very capable to reach that mark


None of that means Dez owners valued him more then Julio, or that they were valued the same, or that Dez owners were more out of touch, or anything you said I was referring to. It was speaking directly to a WR not being top 5 in his first 2 years but still having the abiility to do so one day. It also took away from whatever point you were trying to make when you made a pointless remark about me owning Dez when 1) I own both Julio & Dez so that wouldn't make much sense and 2) I was never rating or comparing Dez and his value to anything that would make it relative to point out how he's in my sig, the fact that you even pointed it out confirmed what I said went over your head.

[DYNOmite]

While I enjoyed reading your rips of me all, I think my point is/was missed -- I was not seeking to compare Dez to Julio for sake of value, production, etc...my point is based on the "out of touch-ness" perception of owners. I have rarely, if even ever, come across an owner "out of touch" on Dez to where they would not take, say, Doug Martin for him straight up. I have, however, seen this with Julio owners....hence my "especially in the window as this thread is presented (i.e. owner's eyes)". That was my whole point and I said the arguemnt was unintelligible -- NOT a human being; to me it is unintelligible as it does not address this very point (the "out of touch[-ness]" as this thread was created for).

And I emphasized "STILL" not valued because of the very comparison in the stats above -- because of the very "out of touch" perception that belies what the stats say.

That was all. Boy, making a nuanced position here is just a wasted effort.

i would not trade Julio for Martin. Martin is not worth more to me than Julio.

I know, at least w/ respect to you my man - we went through this before as I appluaded your candor, asking what it would take on your end. I think you are in the minority however, at least minority of non-Juio owners (i.e - a team w/o either, take your pick) - you even admitted your position underscoring the very point of this thread.

They are the same age and the career of WR's is much longer than RB's. Stud WR's hold their value until they are 30 while people start looking to move RB's when they turn 27 (three years from now for Martin).