Not at all early 2025 Draft thread

[mild]

20 deep until they start running 4.7's at the combine, lol. But yeah, hopefully it's legit, because i punted RB on both startups i did last year.

For sure. But even if we assume 5-ish of them get whittled down... 15 is still quite insane.

I've already been scouting the later round guys, and there is a lot to like there... punting RB in a startup is always a great strategy whilst you get the rest of the "longer term" positions sorted - and then push for RB.

I've been harping on it - but if that 20 number is in any way realistic... then the RB market / valuations on all veterans is about to get nuked, outside of the top 3-5 guys...

[BabyChark23]

20 deep until they start running 4.7's at the combine, lol. But yeah, hopefully it's legit, because i punted RB on both startups i did last year.

For sure. But even if we assume 5-ish of them get whittled down... 15 is still quite insane.

I've already been scouting the later round guys, and there is a lot to like there... punting RB in a startup is always a great strategy whilst you get the rest of the "longer term" positions sorted - and then push for RB.

I've been harping on it - but if that 20 number is in any way realistic... then the RB market / valuations on all veterans is about to get nuked, outside of the top 3-5 guys...

Well, what are we assuming of this 15 deep 2025 RB class? That they all end up top 32 backs in the league? If so, then yeah, anyone with vet RBs is in trouble. That seems rather outlandish though.

[DJB]

Heh, yeah, we’re getting close to due on another great rookie rb class. I think the last ones were 2017 and then 2008 if I’m not mistaken.

By the numbers, this is probably our best shot yet at this.

via RayGQue:

I still don't think we are giving this 2025 RB class the proper credit it deserves. Looking legit 20 deep, you can make a case for any of them depending on their landing spot.

https://x.com/RayGQue/status/1891196508873126390

Yeah I take that guys word with a MASSIVE grain of salt . If you recall he was a HUGE Reagor and Rondale Moore guy and would crap on anyone that disagreed.

Personally not a fan of him at all

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Heh, yeah, we’re getting close to due on another great rookie rb class. I think the last ones were 2017 and then 2008 if I’m not mistaken.

By the numbers, this is probably our best shot yet at this.

via RayGQue:

I still don't think we are giving this 2025 RB class the proper credit it deserves. Looking legit 20 deep, you can make a case for any of them depending on their landing spot.

https://x.com/RayGQue/status/1891196508873126390

Yeah I take that guys word with a MASSIVE grain of salt . If you recall he was a HUGE Reagor and Rondale Moore guy and would crap on anyone that disagreed.

Personally not a fan of him at all

I mean, it doesn't matter, the best you can ask of any analyst it to simply be better than average. I have no idea if Ray is above average overall on his takes, but I'm just saying even the "best" are going to be wrong, a lot. But yeah, we can also frown on those that are obnoxious about a take that ends up being wrong.

And also, just because you're right on a take doesn't mean your process was good either. In an alternate universe, CEH is a better player than JT, but the process of valuing CEH over JT was always severely flawed.

[mild]

I mean, it doesn't matter, the best you can ask of any analyst it to simply be better than average. I have no idea if Ray is above average overall on his takes, but I'm just saying even the "best" are going to be wrong, a lot. But yeah, we can also frown on those that are obnoxious about a take that ends up being wrong.

And also, just because you're right on a take doesn't mean your process was good either. In an alternate universe, CEH is a better player than JT, but the process of valuing CEH over JT was always severely flawed.

Exactly what DD said, the messenger is irrelevant if the message itself is holding water.

I have the exact case in point for you guys: the valuation shift has already started. KTC has added the individual rankings for the Rookie crop in the last few days. It will take a while for these to settle - but my point is being borne out, almost immediately, and very visibly. The great 2025 RB shakeup is already here.

https://keeptradecut.com/dynasty-rankin ... ers=RB|RDP

Immediate things standing out to me on first glance:

- the Big 5 have already bumped down a lot of names, positionally speaking (if not value wise as well)
- Jeanty debuts at RB3, bumping both Saquon and Achane down a spot each
- Omarion Hampton and Treyveon Henderson debut at RB11 and RB12, with the chance to displace James Cook and Kyren Williams (RB10 and RB9) if landing spot is favourable.
- Josh Jacobs and Kenneth Walker now fall outside the Top 12 as RB13 and RB14 respectively.
- Judkins (RB16) bumps CMC (RB17) and could prove a really interesting pivot point for the contender/rebuilder sides of the aisle.
- Likewise, Kaleb Johnson at RB19 clearly represents the obvious best value so far, and is currently behind Derrick Henry (RB18) and ahead of Chuba Hubbard and David Montgomery. He probably rises, as Henry is one of the most roster-specific RB's in dynasty right now.

And that's just starting with the big 5.

This class is already doing major things to the Dynasty landscape without having played a single professional down.

This is the kind of market landscape where championship rosters can be made - it's going to be absolute chaos out there. Good luck, gents.

[mild]

New messenger, same message.

I'm sure you guys will come around eventually.

90th Percentile RB Prospects by Draft Class
+ According to my Model*

2017: 7
2018: 4
2019: 2
2020: 6
2021: 3
2022: 5
2023: 6
2024: 4
2025: 12

*before manual adjustments, doesn't include projected draft capital / combine results

-----------------------------------------------------

Idk what’s going on in the dynasty streets but my advice would be to sell every RB on your roster and load up on rookie picks

Going to be a bloodbath. Tons of vet RBs (many you’d never expect) will see their value plummet post-Draft

https://x.com/ScottBarrettDFB/status/18 ... 5892977712

"The mild RB apocalypse posts will continue until morale improves"

[dynastyninja]

I haven’t even finished watching everyone yet and I’ve already seen a ton of NFL-quality backs this year. I think every single RB I’ve watched so far (Jeanty, Hampton, Johnson, Henderson, Sampson, Skattebo, Judkins, Gordon, James) has looked to me to be NFL-starter caliber or better.

I agree with mild here. It’s really deep.

This is the deepest RB class I think I’ve seen in my 15 years in dynasty. This class plus last years vet resurgence will mark a new era for the NFL where running backs are properly respected and paid again.

[Cherokee]

Heh, yeah, we’re getting close to due on another great rookie rb class. I think the last ones were 2017 and then 2008 if I’m not mistaken.

By the numbers, this is probably our best shot yet at this.

via RayGQue:

I still don't think we are giving this 2025 RB class the proper credit it deserves. Looking legit 20 deep, you can make a case for any of them depending on their landing spot.

https://x.com/RayGQue/status/1891196508873126390

Yeah I take that guys word with a MASSIVE grain of salt . If you recall he was a HUGE Reagor and Rondale Moore guy and would crap on anyone that disagreed.

Personally not a fan of him at all

The guy will do 100 rookie Mock drafts with each having a new player in the 1st round. (R.J. Harvey, Woody Marks, Cam Skattebo, Dylan Sampson ect. ect.) So when one of them hit, he can say, " Heard it here first. Always been a My Guy. Check the reciepts".
Also seems like the guy that played NAIA ball for semester so he KNOWS BALL
He's fine to listen to I guess but not sure anyone is learning anything.

[mild]

The guy will do 100 rookie Mock drafts with each having a new player in the 1st round. (R.J. Harvey, Woody Marks, Cam Skattebo, Dylan Sampson ect. ect.) So when one of them hit, he can say, " Heard it here first. Always been a My Guy. Check the reciepts".
Also seems like the guy that played NAIA ball for semester so he KNOWS BALL
He's fine to listen to I guess but not sure anyone is learning anything.

We get it. Ray sucks.

Now do Scott Barrett next. Why does he suck and not know what he's talking about?

And then check out the dynasty rankings adjusting in real time with the new RB's added.

Don't hear what I'm not saying. I don't care about Ray G Que's evaluations or "my guys".

I'm saying if he's even close to right - if any of these analysts who are starting to post their early grades are right - then RB is about to get shaken like a snow globe and then smashed out of the park with a baseball bat.

Make sure you have plenty of top 30 picks in this draft.

[Cherokee]

The guy will do 100 rookie Mock drafts with each having a new player in the 1st round. (R.J. Harvey, Woody Marks, Cam Skattebo, Dylan Sampson ect. ect.) So when one of them hit, he can say, " Heard it here first. Always been a My Guy. Check the reciepts".
Also seems like the guy that played NAIA ball for semester so he KNOWS BALL
He's fine to listen to I guess but not sure anyone is learning anything.

We get it. Ray sucks.

Now do Scott Barrett next. Why does he suck and not know what he's talking about?

And then check out the dynasty rankings adjusting in real time with the new RB's added.

Don't hear what I'm not saying. I don't care about Ray G Que's evaluations or "my guys".

I'm saying if he's even close to right - if any of these analysts who are starting to post their early grades are right - then RB is about to get shaken like a snow globe and then smashed out of the park with a baseball bat.

Make sure you have plenty of top 30 picks in this draft.

Scott is great. Shane>

[Jigga94]

Heh, yeah, we’re getting close to due on another great rookie rb class. I think the last ones were 2017 and then 2008 if I’m not mistaken.

By the numbers, this is probably our best shot yet at this.

via RayGQue:

I still don't think we are giving this 2025 RB class the proper credit it deserves. Looking legit 20 deep, you can make a case for any of them depending on their landing spot.

https://x.com/RayGQue/status/1891196508873126390

Yeah I take that guys word with a MASSIVE grain of salt . If you recall he was a HUGE Reagor and Rondale Moore guy and would crap on anyone that disagreed.

Personally not a fan of him at all

Rays much better scouting RB than WR imo

[Pullo Vision]

On the QB front, Dane Brugler suggests more QBs will be drafted Day 2 than Day 1. Also says that Nix last year was anticipated to be drafted around 21-40 but went 12th overall, and Jaxson Dart could see a similar rise. (edited for clarity)

[mild]

On the QB front, Dane Brugler suggests more QBs will be drafted Day 2 than Day 1. Also says that Jaxson Dart could see a Nix like rise, after he was initially anticipated to be drafted between 21-40.

Good stuff here Pullo.

Speaking of Dart, here's him being an absolute menace playing rollerskate tag:
https://x.com/Ihartitz/status/1890496693268832727

[mild]

New messenger, same message...

"The mild RB apocalypse posts will continue until morale improves"

*JJ Zachariason has entered the chat*

"This class looks great on paper... my model loves a lot of the backs in this class. Right now? This looks like a top 3 class, since 2011 - depending on how you measure it."

https://music.youtube.com/watch?v=JPktepGEbaM

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Regarding Ray specifically, in the end he’s just a college football fan that decided to market himself a lot and give his opinions. He has said as much himself. If anyone is listening to him and thinking he’s a guru of some sort, well you may need to adjust your expectations. Others like Barrett are far more into analytics (which I love but it’s a double edge sword, it often leads them astray just as much as it does to the truth), and that’s fine too. As long as the listener understands the context of the information they’re getting.

The only analyst I’m interested in from Rays podcast network is Scott Conner, because he understands fantasy football is inherently random, so instead of tearing his hair out figuring out which player is better than the other, he plays the odds and leans heavily into roster construction and gaining value from trading. Ultimately that’s the best way to “win” at fantasy football, but it’s the least sexy because nobody wants to hear picking players is virtually all luck, they instead want to believe in Santa, that they’re the chosen one who KNOWS this player will be good and this player will be bad. Most fantasy sites cater to this mentality. Don’t get me wrong, I love to listen to dynasty content that aligns with this, but in the end we’re all just throwing sht at a wall and seeing what sticks, we just try to be 10% better than our competitors at it