2025 Buy Lows

[81-]

Fun thought exercise though. I wonder where JJM would be valued today if we knew Darnold was gone in ‘25. I’ve heard folks argue that we’re currently buying him now close his ceiling price (RD5 startup and early/mid 1st rookie pick valuation). I don’t agree with that but I think it’s a reasonable take

I'm pricing him as that with the 1.04. That's what I'm expecting from the purchase.

This guy is right a lot, and I think it lines up in this case. Just my early lean / gut feel on this one.

https://x.com/CrakRok/status/1888040896207188001

I do have some more to say about two other *actual* buy lows in Kenneth Walker and Courtland Sutton, though...

Same guys said this... So...

[Jigga94]

I am all for buying JJM low, especially with picks given this QB class is much, much weaker. He would likely be the QB1 in this class, or least in the conversation. He also has a phenomenal situation which was one of the reasons I went back and watched him again. I wasn't overly impressed with him at first, but he seems like a smart QB who can make a living in the NFL. In comparison, I liked the physical tools and college production of Penix more, but he had more negatives to consider as well (age, injuries, etc).

Paying the 1.04 isn't a buy low in my opinion. Closer to 1.06-1.08 would be buying low. He's currently behind Trevor, Penix and Cam Ward on KTC. I can see swapping one of them for JJM, but I wouldn't imagine people are paying early 1sts for Trevor or Penix at this stage...

[BabyChark23]

I wouldn't imagine people are paying early 1sts for Trevor or Penix at this stage...

I would easily pay the 1.02 for Trevor if I needed a QB in SF/2QB. He may not be elite tier, but he’s a locked in starter for the next 10+ years. He finished QB8 and QB13 in 2022 and 2023. He has a good situation. There is no one in this class other than Jeanty that I would consider ranking over him.

[tstafford]

I wouldn't imagine people are paying early 1sts for Trevor or Penix at this stage...

I would easily pay the 1.02 for Trevor if I needed a QB in SF/2QB. He may not be elite tier, but he’s a locked in starter for the next 10+ years. He finished QB8 and QB13 in 2022 and 2023. He has a good situation. There is no one in this class other than Jeanty that I would consider ranking over him.

Same.

[murphysxm]

Yeah, Trevor is no longer sexy or possesses a huge upside, but is a locked in QB.

[mild]

I am all for buying JJM low, especially with picks given this QB class is much, much weaker. He would likely be the QB1 in this class, or least in the conversation. He also has a phenomenal situation which was one of the reasons I went back and watched him again. I wasn't overly impressed with him at first, but he seems like a smart QB who can make a living in the NFL. In comparison, I liked the physical tools and college production of Penix more, but he had more negatives to consider as well (age, injuries, etc).

Paying the 1.04 isn't a buy low in my opinion. Closer to 1.06-1.08 would be buying low. He's currently behind Trevor, Penix and Cam Ward on KTC. I can see swapping one of them for JJM, but I wouldn't imagine people are paying early 1sts for Trevor or Penix at this stage...

If we're only 2 picks apart in our valuation and that's the difference in our definition of a "buy low" then I think we're on the same page / splitting hairs. I did say I'd pay "up to" 1.04 as the highest, naturally you'd love to get the deal done cheaper if you could.

"What is a buy low?"

For me, it's buying a player at a price that is going to quickly eclipse it's value in the coming season.

You won't be able to buy JJ McCarthy for the 1.04 this time next year, is my very willing gamble. He is absolutely a buy low right now, for the value he represents going forward.

And if you don't think he's the future of the Vikings, and you actually think Darnold is coming back in 2025 despite their investment into JJM - then cool, you're welcome to keep believing that too.

We'll see whose right when FA starts.

[mild]

I do have some more to say about two other *actual* buy lows in Kenneth Walker and Courtland Sutton, though...

And?

Sure.

The Broncos took off rookie Bo Nix’s training wheels and opened up their offense following their Week 7 bye. From that point on, Sutton averaged 18.1 FPG and a 13.5% first downs per route run rate on 17.2 XFP/G. Over the full season, those marks would have ranked 8th-best, 8th-best, and 7th-best at the position. Those are the numbers of a bonafide fantasy WR1.

And this probably wasn’t just a random late-career blip. In hindsight, Sutton’s ACL + MCL tear in 2020 was career-altering, but he’s now finally gone two consecutive seasons without a lower-body injury. His newfound health showed in his play, as he surprisingly finished top-25 in Average Separation Score despite his previous reputation as a one-dimensional contested catch threat.

Best of all, the Broncos seem unlikely to spend significant capital on another traditional WR this offseason. Sutton was notably the only Broncos WR to run above a 75% route share in any game last year, but HC Sean Payton is more focused on adding an RB or TE to play his “Joker” role while de-emphasizing the need to add a wideout.

I'd buy Sutton for any 2nd on a Contender. Especially if you're pairing with Nix.

The firing of Ryan Grubb implies the Seahawks intend to be much more run-heavy on offense in 2025, in service of their frequently-cited goal of featuring Kenneth Walker. In two previous seasons as an OC, the newly-hired Klint Kubiak’s offenses have ranked 10th and 1st in total running back targets. And his outside zone scheme is a perfect fit for Walker in particular.

But you don’t have to believe me about any of this. Instead, you could just ask Klint Kubiak.

Walker is coming off career-highs in target share (12.7%, 5th-best) and XFP/G (16.8, 8th-best), getting featured exactly how HC Mike Macdonald told us he’d be last summer. The only reasons he didn’t post a difference-making fantasy season were injury luck and outlierishly poor run-blocking — both factors that are significantly less stable than volume metrics year-over-year (and therefore, could massively improve quickly).

Walker is only 24 years old, has resoundingly answered the most important question about his profile (whether he can command appropriate target volume), and just averaged the most FPG of his career (16.5). Yet he’s over half a round cheaper in startups than last offseason and can be had for a mid-to-late 1st in a rookie class that’s weak overall.

Buy for a mid-to-late 1st.

RB Leaders in Missed Tackles Forced
[Since 2022]

1. Derrick Henry - 215
2. Kenneth Walker - 203
3. Najee Harris - 198
4. James Conner - 190
5. Saquon Barkley - 188

MTF per Touch leaders
[Since 2022]

1. De'Von Achane - 33.1%
2. Bucky Irving - 29.1%
3. Kenneth Walker - 28.9%

He's good.

[BabyChark23]

I do have some more to say about two other *actual* buy lows in Kenneth Walker and Courtland Sutton, though...

And?

Sure.

The Broncos took off rookie Bo Nix’s training wheels and opened up their offense following their Week 7 bye. From that point on, Sutton averaged 18.1 FPG and a 13.5% first downs per route run rate on 17.2 XFP/G. Over the full season, those marks would have ranked 8th-best, 8th-best, and 7th-best at the position. Those are the numbers of a bonafide fantasy WR1.

And this probably wasn’t just a random late-career blip. In hindsight, Sutton’s ACL + MCL tear in 2020 was career-altering, but he’s now finally gone two consecutive seasons without a lower-body injury. His newfound health showed in his play, as he surprisingly finished top-25 in Average Separation Score despite his previous reputation as a one-dimensional contested catch threat.

Best of all, the Broncos seem unlikely to spend significant capital on another traditional WR this offseason. Sutton was notably the only Broncos WR to run above a 75% route share in any game last year, but HC Sean Payton is more focused on adding an RB or TE to play his “Joker” role while de-emphasizing the need to add a wideout.

I'd buy Sutton for any 2nd on a Contender. Especially if you're pairing with Nix.

The firing of Ryan Grubb implies the Seahawks intend to be much more run-heavy on offense in 2025, in service of their frequently-cited goal of featuring Kenneth Walker. In two previous seasons as an OC, the newly-hired Klint Kubiak’s offenses have ranked 10th and 1st in total running back targets. And his outside zone scheme is a perfect fit for Walker in particular.

But you don’t have to believe me about any of this. Instead, you could just ask Klint Kubiak.

Walker is coming off career-highs in target share (12.7%, 5th-best) and XFP/G (16.8, 8th-best), getting featured exactly how HC Mike Macdonald told us he’d be last summer. The only reasons he didn’t post a difference-making fantasy season were injury luck and outlierishly poor run-blocking — both factors that are significantly less stable than volume metrics year-over-year (and therefore, could massively improve quickly).

Walker is only 24 years old, has resoundingly answered the most important question about his profile (whether he can command appropriate target volume), and just averaged the most FPG of his career (16.5). Yet he’s over half a round cheaper in startups than last offseason and can be had for a mid-to-late 1st in a rookie class that’s weak overall.

Buy for a mid-to-late 1st.

RB Leaders in Missed Tackles Forced
[Since 2022]

1. Derrick Henry - 215
2. Kenneth Walker - 203
3. Najee Harris - 198
4. James Conner - 190
5. Saquon Barkley - 188

MTF per Touch leaders
[Since 2022]

1. De'Von Achane - 33.1%
2. Bucky Irving - 29.1%
3. Kenneth Walker - 28.9%

He's good.

Cool. Thanks!

[81-]

Sutton is an interesting one. Last year of his deal. Outplayed it last year.

When you look at his ktc value of wr45, just behind an early 25 second.

Defiantly feels under valued.

As a Sutton drafter/owner, I'd want something in the egbuka draft range to move him.

[tstafford]

As a Sutton drafter/owner, I'd want something in the egbuka draft range to move him.

My guess is in most leagues that means you're hanging on to Sutton.

[81-]

As a Sutton drafter/owner, I'd want something in the egbuka draft range to move him.

My guess is in most leagues that means you're hanging on to Sutton.

Likely true at this point. Sutton is quickly becoming that player that is more valuable on your roster than on the trading block. Great mid season trade candidate if he stays in Denver and has a decent year

[mild]

That's the crux right there. Your elite alphas make it work no matter what. Nabers and BTJ got the job done with bums and castaways.

If your case is that "player X needs to have great QB play, a great system, and fed a bunch of targets" couldn't you make that argument just about every starter in the NFL being fantasy elite? So everything needs to go right for this guy to be a top 12 WR?

I don't see the high end outcome for him regardless of the amount of excuses you and others make for him. I won't be giving him away, but I will happily trade him if someone is still a big believer and wants to pay what seems to be his current market price.

Just to return to this for a hot minute. Sounds like to me Garrett Wilson is a buy low then, if you think he's not elite and should go for a "not elite" price.

Would you sell for... KTC says "1.06 and the 3.01" is a fair price in Superflex. Would you do that? So, a mid-1st and an early 3rd/late 2nd?

Because I'd still pull trigger all day at that price. I think he's better than any WR you're going to find at SF 1.06 this year.

He's started his career with 3 straight 1000 yard seasons despite two of those being Zach Wilson years, and then the latest one being Aaron Rodgers very best impression of a Zach Wilson year. To put ZW's efforts into perspective: he never threw for more than 2300 yards in a season as a Jet. To your point: Garrett Wilson HAS been getting the job done with bums and castaways. ZW, Rodgers, Mike White, Tyrod Taylor... that's exactly what they are.

He just hasn't gotten it done to the same level as BTJ and Nabers did, and as a result, they are priced FAR ABOVE that current valuation of Garrett's at a mid-1st + late 2nd. The market already reflects your point.

At the price? I still think buy low. He turns 25 in June. His athletic prime is still just beginning.

Unless you really think there's a WR that can do this or any of this hanging out in this draft.

He's a beast. When the right situation finds him, like many former Jets before him - I firmly believe he's going to be great.

[FantasyFreak]

@mild

Speaking on behalf of my son, I'd like to say, that the Hawks need to fix their OL and blocking issues. Walker is being wasted. If he was on Detroit, for instance, we'd be seeing insane stuff.

The one thing I liked from last year about Grubb (thought it may have been a McDonald thing), is that KP was out there on passing downs way more. He caught 4 passes a game, basically. Games where the run game wasn't working, or they got down big, he was out there catching swing passes.

I just hope after watching last year, they realize he's suited to be given the ball in space as a receiver, again.

We all know he's a fantastic talent, but without an OL, he's going to break tackles and throw guys off him just to get back to the LOS, or get a 2 yard gain that should have been a 4 yard loss. That's the worry. I hope he moves on after this year, unless that OL gets sorted. He's too talented to never see him run behind a decent OL in his prime.

[jenkins.math]

That's the crux right there. Your elite alphas make it work no matter what. Nabers and BTJ got the job done with bums and castaways.

If your case is that "player X needs to have great QB play, a great system, and fed a bunch of targets" couldn't you make that argument just about every starter in the NFL being fantasy elite? So everything needs to go right for this guy to be a top 12 WR?

I don't see the high end outcome for him regardless of the amount of excuses you and others make for him. I won't be giving him away, but I will happily trade him if someone is still a big believer and wants to pay what seems to be his current market price.

Just to return to this for a hot minute. Sounds like to me Garrett Wilson is a buy low then, if you think he's not elite and should go for a "not elite" price.

Would you sell for... KTC says "1.06 and the 3.01" is a fair price in Superflex. Would you do that? So, a mid-1st and an early 3rd/late 2nd?

Because I'd still pull trigger all day at that price. I think he's better than any WR you're going to find at SF 1.06 this year.

He's started his career with 3 straight 1000 yard seasons despite two of those being Zach Wilson years, and then the latest one being Aaron Rodgers very best impression of a Zach Wilson year. To put ZW's efforts into perspective: he never threw for more than 2300 yards in a season as a Jet. To your point: Garrett Wilson HAS been getting the job done with bums and castaways. ZW, Rodgers, Mike White, Tyrod Taylor... that's exactly what they are.

He just hasn't gotten it done to the same level as BTJ and Nabers did, and as a result, they are priced FAR ABOVE that current valuation of Garrett's at a mid-1st + late 2nd. The market already reflects your point.

At the price? I still think buy low. He turns 25 in June. His athletic prime is still just beginning.

Unless you really think there's a WR that can do this or any of this hanging out in this draft.

He's a beast. When the right situation finds him, like many former Jets before him - I firmly believe he's going to be great.

These kinds of questions don't really have a ton of relevance because it lacks any kind of context. Am I contending? Am I stuck in the middle? Am I in the midst of a full on rebuild? Depending on your team makeup and timeline changes the equation drastically. It's equivalent to asking "what is player X worth in picks" and I feel like the majority of the time the answer is "a late first" around here.

According to KTC (which is not something I ever reference but just to compare apples to apples here for you) GW by himself is valued right around the 1.03 in SF. So if Tet is there and he tests well and gets a great landing spot I could see someone wanting to take an upside swing and re-roll the dice if I am so far away from being a contender and you believe in Tet.

I think the better discussion is based around the guys around him. He is ranked right ahead of AJB. If I am a contender I would much rather have AJB than GW for the next 2-3 years. If I need a RB (and contending), both Achane and Bucky Irving are there as well as Breece Hall. I could see flipping him for one of those guys if you needed RB help.

Then you get to the QBs: Kyler, Purdy, Baker, TLaw are all guys I think I would take if I can't find another QB over GW.

2026 early first for GW? Yep give me the pick.

I'd much tier down with someone like Devonta Smith + something over GW. Give me Devonta Smith + 2nd (which fits your desire on KTC) and I'm moving GW. Those 2 were separated by 0.2 points per game last season.

A riskier tier down would be DJM + late first/early 2nd if you think Ben Johnson is going to use him as a big slot like he did ARSB.

Or if you know someone who is a believer then try and tier up. GW + a first is an enticing offer for a lot of folks and at least opens the door. As a Nabers owner I wouldn't do this, but back to your KTC it says that GW + 1.08 = Nabers. I'll gladly pay that price all day long for Nabers.

I have GW in one league and the best thing I can say about him is that he gives me steady production and doesn't miss games. That matters and has value. That team won the title this year so I am not necessarily looking to just rage trade him or dump him.

But I do feel like he is overvalued and I don't see his production getting much better barring a trade or the NYJ getting very lucky in the QB department. If he gives you the same WR2 output again next year his value is going to drop more. He was priced pretty darn high for a guy that had never gotten into the top 20 WR in actual fantasy production until this year.

I don't see the high end elite outcome for him. That isn't the same thing as me saying he sucks at football. He doesn't. He is a nice player to have as a WR2/3 on a contender since he never misses games and he has a nice PPR floor. But he isn't someone I think you can build your WR core around in fantasy and feel set.

[mild]

These kinds of questions don't really have a ton of relevance because it lacks any kind of context...
----

But I do feel like he is overvalued and I don't see his production getting much better barring a trade or the NYJ getting very lucky in the QB department. If he gives you the same WR2 output again next year his value is going to drop more. He was priced pretty darn high for a guy that had never gotten into the top 20 WR in actual fantasy production until this year.

I don't see the high end elite outcome for him. That isn't the same thing as me saying he sucks at football. He doesn't. He is a nice player to have as a WR2/3 on a contender since he never misses games and he has a nice PPR floor. But he isn't someone I think you can build your WR core around in fantasy and feel set.

Props for a really good post.

I think that's the core of our disagreement - I think there might still be juice to squeeze here, and I think he could still get there as a Top 10 WR. And I personally think we are on a countdown clock right now until his trade request comes out pre-2025 Free Agency. (And then I guess we'll see what happens, but I'm expecting it'll get ugly)

Arguably, once he makes the request, it could be argued that his value might fluctuate even further still - so perhaps the savvy might even wait further on that front.

The point being that I see him as a distressed asset with a potentially elite ceiling, and this is the Buy Low thread. I'm saying I think he's a good Buy Low at the current prices.