Brian Thomas Jr Official Thread

[WOATjohn]

Serious question - what's actionable around BTJ? Are we tiering down from JJ or Chase to BTJ? Are we adding multiple firsts to guys like London or Wilson to tier up?

Has anyone actually moved him or acquired him?

Or is this thread mostly brag posts from folks who landed him last year - which is fine too.

Trades done yesterday and today-
Aiyu+Kincaid+25 1 for BTJ
Pitts+25 1+25 2+26 1 for BTJ
Bowers+Aiyuk for BTJ+Nix
Odunze+J Brooks+25 1st for BTJ
25 1+25 3 for BTJ+25 4th
Nabers+25 2nd for BTJ
Chase for BTJ+25 1+ 25 2
Rachaad+B Young+25 1+ 25 2 for BTJ
G Wilson+25 1 for BTJ
McBride+Flacco for BTJ+McMillan+J Warren
Bowers for BTJ+Kraft

I have a few shares of BTJ and most of these are extremely interesting and would have me really thinking. I don't think any of them are easy accepts (for me) but they're juicy

[wickerkat1212]

As a BTK owner, here is where I STAND on these:

Aiyu+Kincaid+25 1 for BTJ NOT UNLESS 1.01
Pitts+25 1+25 2+26 1 for BTJ WOULD HAVE TO BE VERY EARLY PICKS, NO
Bowers+Aiyuk for BTJ+Nix SF NO, 1 QB MAYBE, TEP YES
Odunze+J Brooks+25 1st for BTJ HAVE TO BE EARLY PICK
25 1+25 3 for BTJ+25 4th WOULD HAVE TO BE 1.01
Nabers+25 2nd for BTJ COIN FLIP, IDK
Chase for BTJ+25 1+ 25 2 NO
Rachaad+B Young+25 1+ 25 2 for BTJ NO
G Wilson+25 1 for BTJ ONLY IF IT'S VERY EARLY, LIKE 1.01
McBride+Flacco for BTJ+McMillan+J Warren LOL NO
Bowers for BTJ+Kraft NOT UNLESS TEP

Where do you all land on these?

[jenkins.math]

Of that list I’d move BTJ for Nabers + 2nd but that’s the only one that I feel like is easy. I’d rather have Nabers straight up to BTJ personally but I may be in the minority there.

[81-]

Of that list I’d move BTJ for Nabers + 2nd but that’s the only one that I feel like is easy. I’d rather have Nabers straight up to BTJ personally but I may be in the minority there.

I think you are in the majority on Nabers vs Thomas Jr

[tstafford]

As a BTK owner, here is where I STAND on these:

Aiyu+Kincaid+25 1 for BTJ NOT UNLESS 1.01
Pitts+25 1+25 2+26 1 for BTJ WOULD HAVE TO BE VERY EARLY PICKS, NO
Bowers+Aiyuk for BTJ+Nix SF NO, 1 QB MAYBE, TEP YES
Odunze+J Brooks+25 1st for BTJ HAVE TO BE EARLY PICK
25 1+25 3 for BTJ+25 4th WOULD HAVE TO BE 1.01
Nabers+25 2nd for BTJ COIN FLIP, IDK
Chase for BTJ+25 1+ 25 2 NO
Rachaad+B Young+25 1+ 25 2 for BTJ NO
G Wilson+25 1 for BTJ ONLY IF IT'S VERY EARLY, LIKE 1.01
McBride+Flacco for BTJ+McMillan+J Warren LOL NO
Bowers for BTJ+Kraft NOT UNLESS TEP

Where do you all land on these?

It's pretty hard to know since a lot of them involve '25 picks that are already slotted. Without knowing the exact pick, I don't know how to judge most of those.

[mikedigs]

Of that list, I'm taking the BTJ side everywhere, except the Nabers trade. I like Nabers a bit more as well. But BTJ is right behind him for me. The Bowers trade was intriguing, but based on process I'd rather go elite WR over elite TE (or RB).

[Pullo Vision]

As a BTK owner, here is where I STAND on these:

Aiyu+Kincaid+25 1 for BTJ NOT UNLESS 1.01
Pitts+25 1+25 2+26 1 for BTJ WOULD HAVE TO BE VERY EARLY PICKS, NO
Bowers+Aiyuk for BTJ+Nix SF NO, 1 QB MAYBE, TEP YES
Odunze+J Brooks+25 1st for BTJ HAVE TO BE EARLY PICK
25 1+25 3 for BTJ+25 4th WOULD HAVE TO BE 1.01
Nabers+25 2nd for BTJ COIN FLIP, IDK
Chase for BTJ+25 1+ 25 2 NO
Rachaad+B Young+25 1+ 25 2 for BTJ NO
G Wilson+25 1 for BTJ ONLY IF IT'S VERY EARLY, LIKE 1.01
McBride+Flacco for BTJ+McMillan+J Warren LOL NO
Bowers for BTJ+Kraft NOT UNLESS TEP

Where do you all land on these?

It's pretty hard to know since a lot of them involve '25 picks that are already slotted. Without knowing the exact pick, I don't know how to judge most of those.

I like this approach of trying to figure out where the picks would have to be to make this trade. The fact wicker thinks the 1st needs to be 1.1 to close the "players to BTJ" gap puts too much value on Thomas, imo. A couple look like not enough for Thomas, but league settings/size/dynamics could be a huge factor. I'm in some leagues where WR production is pretty easy to buy, so flipping BTJ for a bundle featuring 2 1sts certainly piques my interest.

I do gotta watch one of those "every catch/target/snap" videos on Thomas. Don't want to assess his value on my pre draft analysis.

[mild]

I do gotta watch one of those "every catch/target/snap" videos on Thomas. Don't want to assess his value on my pre draft analysis.

I gotcha fam.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aBXsPZnFIKE

[wickerkat1212]

When I say 1.01 I mean that IDK if there are ANY players in THIS draft that I'd take OVER BTJ right now. Maybe Jeanty and maybe Tet, but for me...it's probably only Jeanty, and I'd have to need RB and be deep on WR. For where we all took BTJ—probably in the 1.07-1.12 range—I feel like we got a steal. So to get him there (I traded up and in to get him at 1.11 after taking Harrison at 1.02 and Maye at 1.06 in a SF TEP league) it feels like a bargain. Didn't have to trade away the farm, most likely, to get him. I gave two early 2nds and am still thrilled with that.

[MacDaddy123]

When I say 1.01 I mean that IDK if there are ANY players in THIS draft that I'd take OVER BTJ right now. Maybe Jeanty and maybe Tet, but for me...it's probably only Jeanty, and I'd have to need RB and be deep on WR. For where we all took BTJ—probably in the 1.07-1.12 range—I feel like we got a steal. So to get him there (I traded up and in to get him at 1.11 after taking Harrison at 1.02 and Maye at 1.06 in a SF TEP league) it feels like a bargain. Didn't have to trade away the farm, most likely, to get him. I gave two early 2nds and am still thrilled with that.

That is a steal!
I gave up 1.12 and two 24 3rds to move up to 1.10 to grab BTJ, still thrilled with that trade.

I would not trade BTJ for ANY player in this 2025 draft class, including Jeanty, unless I got some + back on the Jeanty side.

[mild]

https://x.com/The33rdTeamFB/status/1884357351605518564

"I'm excited about you bro. It'll be fun."

Friendly reminder:

Brian Thomas Jr. ranked 16th in catches, 3rd in rec. yards, and 6th in rec. TDs last season on a team that was 20th in pass attempts, 24th in yards and 28th in TDs

Liam Coen’s Buccaneers ranked 10th in attempts, 3rd in pass yards and 2nd in pass TDs

[wickerkat1212]

Thanks, to be fair, this was during the draft, and I had been actively trying to trade up and all the way through the 2nd round, so this was way before we had an proof that he'd be elite, but I'm glad I was able to get one share across my four leagues.

[mikedigs]

I checked back to see how I got my BTJ shares, and got lucky in 3 drafts.
Got him at 1.08, 1.10, and 1.12. 1 QB

But then saw that I pulled a heist. I completely forgot about this trade.
The picks were unknown back then, so he def got unlucky with it being 1.12.

12 TM / 1 QB
Date: 8/8/2024
Sent: DJM + 1.12 + A Estime
Got: BTJ + Spears + R Davis + 2.06

[BHSU]

https://x.com/The33rdTeamFB/status/1884357351605518564

"I'm excited about you bro. It'll be fun."

Friendly reminder:

Brian Thomas Jr. ranked 16th in catches, 3rd in rec. yards, and 6th in rec. TDs last season on a team that was 20th in pass attempts, 24th in yards and 28th in TDs

Liam Coen’s Buccaneers ranked 10th in attempts, 3rd in pass yards and 2nd in pass TDs

Also just a friendly reminder, he did that all as a ROOKIE and he was out for a game with an injury and IMO hindered in a few others due to the injury.

[Pullo Vision]

I do gotta watch one of those "every catch/target/snap" videos on Thomas. Don't want to assess his value on my pre draft analysis.

I gotcha fam.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aBXsPZnFIKE

Good find, good watch. I like to watch the "every snap" videos because you sometimes catch great plays on blocking attempts. He was targeted more in screens, sweeps, end arounds and the like than I expected. Looked like there were different clusters when that happened. On Steve Smith's show, they said team coaches didn't realize he was as a good a ball carrier as he proved to be, so they started scheming him those touches. Also worth noting he played basketball in high school.

Drops, actual and near interceptions, flags (don't show up on stat sheet)
0:06- defensive flag, ball put at the 1 (first target as a rookie, matched up on Jalen Ramsey)
0:55- bad throw, nearly intercepted,didn't react quickly enough to near interception
1:18- drop even though two hands on the ball
1:24- one of 2 WRs right next to each other
1:31- drop on a short route heading to the sideline
1:37- incomplete, did he get his hands on the ball?
2:09- overthrow, intercepted
2:34- drop
5:18- double teamed, interception on target for Thomas
5:52- near TD but dropped
9:06- bobble on sideline catch
10:55- interception in one on one coverage
11:55- drop despite two hands and no defender
12:07- high point toe tap TD attempt but dropped
12:43- overthrown, intercepted
12:47- announcer says Thomas couldn't hold on, but it was so low it's not clear Thomas even got a hand on it
14:48- catch negated by oline holding
15:06- defensive interference
15:15- TD off the fingertips
16:16- curious what happened here, WR curls back, QB throws over
19:09- bobbled but secured, on the sideline
20:16- Thomas is streaking down the middle of the field, but the throw is short, interception
20:25- ball looks like it goes off his hands for an incompletion, near the sideline

On a completely unrelated note, that channel has several every target/catch/pass/run videos for week 18. Joe Milton's video has 14k views, and the next closest is 2.6k. Curious why there's such a disparity. There have been suggestions NE should consider trading him.