You Should Be Up on Josh Downs

[tstafford]

One down, two to go in avoiding possible regret. Smith was awful again on TNF. So it seems that was a smart call.

Low-key hoping Tillman becomes a thing. Drafted him as a rookie, cut him before the 2024 draft, picked him back up off the wire. Free is good!

I don't blame anyone for shying away from Downs with what's happening in Indy currently. But I still believe in him as a player.

That's funny. I did the same thing with Tillman. Drafted, cut, picked back up.

Bad math on my part too, since Downs will be establishing the baseline to judge our decision on. And the Tillman love comes from a place of me kicking myself, because the choice in the 3rd round was between him and Puka. I didn't put any stock in the positive news I was reading out of Rams Camp. My mistake...

I like Downs too. This week is just tough - A.Rich and the Jets. He's around WR36 for me. Not a bad start but a lot of teams probably have better options. He'll blow up on my bench for sure.

[tstafford]

WELP. I guess maybe Downs is simply a must start regardless of QB and match-up. Probably cost myself a win by benching him. Live and learn. (Glad he's on my roster!)

[Jigga94]

He's the new WR1 in IND

[murphysxm]

There is pretty much speculative consensus within the beat that the contradictions are Irsay, and that he ordered the Flacco starts.

I have, much to my surprise, not a heard a single peep locally that Irsay pulled this particular string. Just curious if you have sources I haven't seen or if this is an assumption?

It wasn't a local storyline, sorry. Was the pet theory of the terminally online football twitter crowd. I will try and source it now, but I'm inclined to believe it - I think it makes sense if you think it through with the timelines of what we know, and what the messaging was right from the start.

No apology needed, just making sure I hadn’t missed anything on my end.

[RheinlandChief]

I put Meyers in for him and this basically lost me my match-up... I hate consequences

Even with AR he looked good.

[CGW]

I too benched him, and it'll end up costing me a pivotal win. Oops. Now I've got to decide between Flowers and Downs every week and I am sure I'll pick wrong.

[Space Cowboy]

He's the new WR1 in IND

I could see Pittman getting traded in the offseason to NE, Denver, KC........

[kmbryant09]

Found this stat(s) interesting for Josh Downs, make of it what you want to considering the relatively small sample size and Downs not being an every down player.

Yards per route run against MAN coverage:
Josh Downs - 11th overall in the NFL at 2.54 yprr
(the other names are AJ Brown / Puka / JJ / Jameson / McConkey / Pickens / Nico / Lamb / Ridley / JSN)

Yards per route run against ZONE coverage:
Josh Downs - 12th overall in the NFL at 2.38 yprr
(the other names are Nico / Chase / AJ Brown / Reed / Puka / Jennings / Godwin / Shakir / McLaurin / JJ / Kupp / ARSB)

Only WRs who are top15 in both categories: AJ Brown, Nico Collins, Puka Nacua, Justin Jefferson, and........Josh Downs

I have always thought of yards per route run to be a fairly reliable & predictive stat in the past, here's hoping it's a sign of things to come for Downs!

How high should we be on him? Downs or JSN? Downs or J. Reed? Downs or DJ Moore? Downs or Aiyuk? Downs or Cooper?

[Dibbles]

How high should we be on him?
Downs or JSN? Coinflip but lean slightly to JSN
Downs or J. Reed? Lean Reed, but close for me
Downs or DJ Moore? Downs
Downs or Aiyuk? Downs easily
Downs or Cooper? Downs very easily

[Kurt G.O.A.T.]

Only jsn over downs.

Reed is too hot and cold. Downs looks to be more stable, which is the kind of wr i like.

The others, forget it. For me anyway.

[Jigga94]

JSN
Reed
Downs
DJM/Aiyuk
Cooper

[BigJoeWall72]

Kind of a dull end of the season for Josh Downs... If I recall correctly, he got hurt during his Week 12 game, didn't play the next week, then had a bye, then had exactly 3 catches in each of Weeks 15, 16, and 17... Even with missing the first two games of the year, he was WR12 overall in my PPR leagues and was WR17 in points per week over the span of Weeks 1-12.

Matt Harmon’s latest Reception Perception podcast featured an extensive discussion on Downs. Harmon was absolutely gushing on his route running, contested catch ability, and off script/second read catches. He put up 68/771 as a rookie and I would expect him to beat the those numbers this year.

Looks like he is going to actually end up right around this receiving line again (with 3 missed games), but I think he looked pretty dang good in his sophomore campaign. Is he another one of these guys that holds more value to the dynasty team he is on vs what they could get in return for trading him?

[Jigga94]

It's the Anthony Richardson effect. He's wildly inconsistent.

Downs had 3 great weeks starting in week 4, 5 and 6.
WR8, 18 and 14 each of those weeks. Surprise, AR was not the QB
AR went down week 4, came back week 7. Downs had 1 catch that week

Then week 8, AR is back and Downs posted 4/109/1 but there was a 69 yard TD on busted coverage and it was Houston so...

Weeks 9 and 10 AR is benched and Downs has another solid outing each week.
WR32 and 20

AR back for week 11 and Downs had a great game. Couple diving catches in there to save his day but it was against the lowly Jets


All that said, Downs is a solid WR3 for the future. Crowded WR room and uncertain QB situation probably means he's closer to a WR4 most weeks, but he has upside. The injuries are a little concerning, because he is smaller and does work over the middle a bit. I agree he's likely a hold given teams aren't going to spend much to get him.

[tstafford]

I agree he's likely a hold given teams aren't going to spend much to get him.

This. He's a hold because in most cases you aren't going to get solid value. I'm not taking a mid-2nd and I bet that's all I could get. It sucks he had a bad game last week in what looked like a prime situ. If he's gone off it might have opened a window to move him. No big deal, hold.

[blemly]

Kind of a dull end of the season for Josh Downs... If I recall correctly, he got hurt during his Week 12 game, didn't play the next week, then had a bye, then had exactly 3 catches in each of Weeks 15, 16, and 17... Even with missing the first two games of the year, he was WR12 overall in my PPR leagues and was WR17 in points per week over the span of Weeks 1-12.

Matt Harmon’s latest Reception Perception podcast featured an extensive discussion on Downs. Harmon was absolutely gushing on his route running, contested catch ability, and off script/second read catches. He put up 68/771 as a rookie and I would expect him to beat the those numbers this year.

Looks like he is going to actually end up right around this receiving line again (with 3 missed games), but I think he looked pretty dang good in his sophomore campaign. Is he another one of these guys that holds more value to the dynasty team he is on vs what they could get in return for trading him?

My projection for him was looking a lot better before he missed a few games and went quiet thereafter. I’m with you though - this was by all accounts a fine-good sophomore campaign for him. If you can buy for a 2nd I’d do so, but as the poster above mentioned that will be team dependent.