J. Jefferson vs. Z. Flowers / T. Higgins / J. Cook

[kmbryant09]

Team 1 in sig.

Looking to do some consolidation to help turn some solid young depth into a stacked starting lineup, but how much is too much for Justin Jefferson?

Should I trade Zay Flowers / Tee Higgins / James Cook for Justin Jefferson? Not enough, too much? Could I ask for some depth RB in return in addition to Jefferson? Other owner has J. Mixon / T. Pollard / G. Edwards / J. Ford as his bench RBs.

Thanks!

[knotts4372]

i doubt you can get jefferson with mainly your bench guys. your gonna have to trade wilson or aiyuk in the deal

[TheTroll]

JJJJJJJJJJJJJJJ

[Black Adam]

double

[Black Adam]

JJ owner: Not even close to fair market value and I'd need an enormous overpay to move JJ. I'm definitely not sending anything back.

Not nearly enough / Auto-rejecting this.

[Anteaters]

i doubt you can get jefferson with mainly your bench guys. your gonna have to trade wilson or aiyuk in the deal

++

[kellysheroes]

if you could then yes, but not many JJ owners would even send a counter on that

[SoftwoodGrampian]

There aren’t fair offers for the elite players, only over pays.

Light by a major player.

[Anteaters]

Looking to do some consolidation to help turn some solid young depth into a stacked starting lineup, but how much is too much for Justin Jefferson?

Rule of thumb when trading for players who are T4 at their position: If you're asking "is this too much?" then you're not thinking of enough. The offer the other guy will accept will be one you already feel is too much.

You'll know when you're getting close to the right price because your "TOO MUCH!" alarm will be going off. Then add a little more.

[TheTroll]

Looking to do some consolidation to help turn some solid young depth into a stacked starting lineup, but how much is too much for Justin Jefferson?

Rule of thumb when trading for players who are T4 at their position: If you're asking "is this too much?" then you're not thinking of enough. The offer the other guy will accept will be one you already feel is too much.

You'll know when you're getting close to the right price because your "TOO MUCH!" alarm will be going off. Then add a little more.

Rule to live by

[SoftwoodGrampian]

Looking to do some consolidation to help turn some solid young depth into a stacked starting lineup, but how much is too much for Justin Jefferson?

Rule of thumb when trading for players who are T4 at their position: If you're asking "is this too much?" then you're not thinking of enough. The offer the other guy will accept will be one you already feel is too much.

You'll know when you're getting close to the right price because your "TOO MUCH!" alarm will be going off. Then add a little more.

What’s the takeaway here? Introductory offer being an overpay when there’s a chance you could have had better value? Enlighten please!

[Anteaters]

Looking to do some consolidation to help turn some solid young depth into a stacked starting lineup, but how much is too much for Justin Jefferson?

Rule of thumb when trading for players who are T4 at their position: If you're asking "is this too much?" then you're not thinking of enough. The offer the other guy will accept will be one you already feel is too much.

You'll know when you're getting close to the right price because your "TOO MUCH!" alarm will be going off. Then add a little more.

What’s the takeaway here? Introductory offer being an overpay when there’s a chance you could have had better value? Enlighten please!

Here's why I think it's a terrible offer.
JJ is either the WR1 or WR2 of dynasty and he's still very young.
Flowers averaged about half the ppg JJ has in his young career.
In 2023, Higgins averaged about half ppg of what JJ did.
James Cook is not an asset that matters in a trade for a T2WR for dynasty.

No insult intended for the OP. Sometimes we get an idea in our head, and when we start trying to think of why we think the other guy might accept it, we start believing our own fantasies. I've slipped into that too, though hopefully not lately.

This is the kind of offer where you have to provide a detailed breakdown of why you think it makes sense to the other guy, because deep down you know it's not enough. When that's the case, the offer is way too light to even offer.

OTOH, There is a sucker born every minute. So maybe just make the offer and maybe the other guy accepts.

[MacDaddy123]

JJ side easily in a small league such as 10 team start 9.
In a 14 team start 10 league, I would strongly consider the package.

[Anteaters]

JJ side easily in a small league such as 10 team start 9.
In a 14 team start 10 league, I would strongly consider the package.

I agree there's a little more reason from the JJ owner's side to consider the offer in a deeper league. Maybe the JJ owner is a contender whose roster needs a little help with a couple of weak starters. Without considering the actual numbers, a 1-for-3 trade might seem like a way of adding points to a starting lineup.

...but those pesky numbers

In 2023 here are the ppg averages for each of these players
Higgins 11.5ppg
Flowers 12.9ppg
Cook 13.7ppg

JJ 20.2ppg

On one hand, we can justify the trading away of JJ by saying we're importing 38.1ppg while trading away 20.2ppg.

If we imagine further, let's say the JJ owner wants to replace JAGs in his starting lineup like Demario Douglas and Devin Singletary. Well Douglas averaged 7.7ppg and Singletary averaged 9.8ppg. That makes the net change in the lineup go from 37.7 (with JJ+DD+DS) to 38.1 (with TH+ZF+JC). Hmmm, not that much of an improvement.

Maybe I just happened to pick JAGs that make this trade look bad. How about two other JAGs like Allgeier (8.1ppg) and Slayton (8.9ppg). That would be trading away 37.2ppg with the JJ package to receive 38.1ppg. Hmmmm, again.

The package guys have more fantasy name reputation than guys like Demario/Singletary/Allgeier/Slayton, but looking at the hard numbers, the package of ZF+TH+JC simply falls way short IMO of what i would take to make it worth it to trade away JJ. Unless the JJ manager has two absolute dogs in those starting roles, the Zay package isn't going to be much of an improvement for his starting lineup. To consider an offer for my JJ, I wold need the package side to be a lot more PPG improvement.

Basically, this trade looks bad all around for the JJ manager. The only reason it seems it might work at first glance is the name recognition of the package. All three of those guys have had some fantasy love showered on them. But of the four players in this trade, only one is even close to being an actual stud. The guys in the package are poseurs.

IMO, This is what makes trading for studs so difficult. An equitable offer has to include at least one asset that already is, or can reasonably be expected to, rise to a higher level. This offer could be enhanced with a 1st to give the JJ owner hope of drafting a rookie who takes off. Or it could include an actual mini-stud like Aiyuk/Olave. As is, the offer just feels very light to me.

But like I said. There's a sucker born every minute. Also, there are fantasy managers who don't think through trades to see if the name bling actually matches the stats goal. I'm sure there are JJ owners out there who would accept this offer. I'm just looking at it from the side of the JJ manager and what it would take to make a better owner consider the offer.

[kmbryant09]

I agree there's a little more reason from the JJ owner's side to consider the offer in a deeper league. Maybe the JJ owner is a contender whose roster needs a little help with a couple of weak starters. Without considering the actual numbers, a 1-for-3 trade might seem like a way of adding points to a starting lineup.

...but those pesky numbers

In 2023 here are the ppg averages for each of these players
Higgins 11.5ppg
Flowers 12.9ppg
Cook 13.7ppg

JJ 20.2ppg

On one hand, we can justify the trading away of JJ by saying we're importing 38.1ppg while trading away 20.2ppg.

If we imagine further, let's say the JJ owner wants to replace JAGs in his starting lineup like Demario Douglas and Devin Singletary. Well Douglas averaged 7.7ppg and Singletary averaged 9.8ppg. That makes the net change in the lineup go from 37.7 (with JJ+DD+DS) to 38.1 (with TH+ZF+JC). Hmmm, not that much of an improvement.

Maybe I just happened to pick JAGs that make this trade look bad. How about two other JAGs like Allgeier (8.1ppg) and Slayton (8.9ppg). That would be trading away 37.2ppg with the JJ package to receive 38.1ppg. Hmmmm, again.

The package guys have more fantasy name reputation than guys like Demario/Singletary/Allgeier/Slayton, but looking at the hard numbers, the package of ZF+TH+JC simply falls way short IMO of what i would take to make it worth it to trade away JJ. Unless the JJ manager has two absolute dogs in those starting roles, the Zay package isn't going to be much of an improvement for his starting lineup. To consider an offer for my JJ, I wold need the package side to be a lot more PPG improvement.

Basically, this trade looks bad all around for the JJ manager. The only reason it seems it might work at first glance is the name recognition of the package. All three of those guys have had some fantasy love showered on them. But of the four players in this trade, only one is even close to being an actual stud. The guys in the package are poseurs.

IMO, This is what makes trading for studs so difficult. An equitable offer has to include at least one asset that already is, or can reasonably be expected to, rise to a higher level. This offer could be enhanced with a 1st to give the JJ owner hope of drafting a rookie who takes off. Or it could include an actual mini-stud like Aiyuk/Olave. As is, the offer just feels very light to me.

But like I said. There's a sucker born every minute. Also, there are fantasy managers who don't think through trades to see if the name bling actually matches the stats goal. I'm sure there are JJ owners out there who would accept this offer. I'm just looking at it from the side of the JJ manager and what it would take to make a better owner consider the offer.

So you don't consider the fact that it was Higgins' worst season to-date (and his ppg numbers could be skewed because he suited up for a few games with practically zero snaps / usage), or that it was Flowers' rookie season and most promising, productive rookie WRs improve on their first-year numbers? Or that Jefferson just lost his starting QB (a fantasy gold-mine) for either Sam Darnold or a rookie?

Do you really just use prior year points per game to evaluate every decision you make in dynasty?