Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread

[wickerkat1212]

Great stuff here, especially Ant. It does seem ironic/funny that we have all of these analytics but at the end of the day, we should probably just look at how the NFL drafts players. Great details on the years where there a lot/few QBs taken early, or WRs—that does really tell us what the NFL thought. Now, obviously when you have two wrs going in the 2nd round, say 45 and 46 that's so close you'll need other information to separate them. JSN was the NCAA possession leader I think? I never saw him as elite WR1 but as a very good WR that in the right situation, especially in PPR, could excel. I still feel that way. As has been said, we all knew Lockett was going to block his entry, but yes, if he was truly elite (like a Harrison, Nabers, Odunze) he'd have found a way to get more love, most likely.

Great conversation here.

[MacDaddy123]

Sorry, wasn't able to figure out how to imbed Tweets. Thanks. I wasn't stating as FACT just saying that I heard he was emerging as the WR1. But like we said, Rice is just trying to stay out of jail right now, or at least stop sabotaging his career, and beyond him there really isn't much competition. I could have sworn I saw somebody on KC say he was "emerging as the WR1" but I can't find the tweet.

(Hint: it doesn't exist)

Here's an idea: Let's not declare a new WR1 in KC in May.

We haven't had camp yet.
They haven't had the WR they took in the 1st round out there yet.
Basically nothing of consequence has happened.
Anything people are saying now is simply a projection, and perhaps even an accurate one.

R-E-L-A-X

Fair enough, all I said was people/media/etc were saying that he was EMERGING at the WR1. But I hear you. Here's another take I like:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k-JY8ZMvGqw

That is a Redraft take, this is a Dynasty site.
Not sure what purpose a video like that serves.

[wickerkat1212]

I'm sure lots of us have shares, and are hopeful he'll be a wr we can start.

[FantasyFreak]

A lot of rookie love—Nabers always open, Nix looking good, Hollywood emerging as the WR1, seeing some Malik Washington love. Estime is the RB2 right now.

Source please. All I've seen is that Mahomes has been developing chemistry with him and giving him deep shots.

But also, his competition in camp right now is Crashee Rice, Toney, Skyy Moore, and the Justins. Worthy is out.

You'd hope he'd be beating out that mob.

Oh, I'm using this.

[mild]

Oh, I'm using this.

All yours bud

[Bronco Billy]

Maybe the learning here is that we should have ignored G.Wilson and paid attention to the NFL. It meant something that he went 1.20. Teams didn't treat him as "elite". The dynasty community was out of step with the NFL. If that's right, then my concerns about Odunze may not be justified - he got the hype and the matching draft capital. My interest in this topic is less about JSN and more about how FF is changing. Trying to get learnings from this to apply to future rookie picks, trades, etc.

Curious what makes you think Wilson isn’t elite.

He’s saying we shouldn’t assume JSN is elite because of what Wilson said.

Got it. Thanks for clarifying - I misread his intent.

I thought as soon as Wilson and Olave starting pimping JSN that it was a plan to get him drafted higher. His play didn’t support that position, despite the 1600+yds receiving including 300+yds in a bowl game!!! narrative that was continuously run at us.

[Jrblaha]

I thought JSN was gonna be a WR1 eventually. I don’t anymore, but think he’ll still be a serviceable WR2 by end of year/next year.

I was intrigued by the big bowl game, OSU WR U, and teammate quotes.

I don’t have any shares but wanted some. His price is still too high for me, so he’s a guy I’ll likely never own.

[killer_of_giants]

Caveat: I'm not sure if this is a change, but ...

A couple of people said JSN was the best on his college team, and suddenly it became an internet fact. But there was no actual fact to back up that opinion.

The problem with this, was the sources for this idea were from his teammates, Olave and Wilson, I believe. Both were currently in the NFL, and they were doing what they were doing, saying JSN was the best of the 3, to try and help get their college teammate drafter higher. Much like Waddle did when saying he preferred Mac to Tua, with Tua already being in the NFL. I'm sure Jaylen didn't even have to tell Tua what he was doing (but likely did, still).

wasn't aj brown bigging up elijah moore in a similar way?

I saw a depth chart on MFL that already has JSN as the WR2 so...

[Ice]

I thought JSN was gonna be a WR1 eventually. I don’t anymore, but think he’ll still be a serviceable WR2 by end of year/next year.

I was intrigued by the big bowl game, OSU WR U, and teammate quotes.

I don’t have any shares but wanted some. His price is still too high for me, so he’s a guy I’ll likely never own.

He actually slightly outplayed Lockett the last 7 games so he does look like he will be their WR2 this year. Don't see him overtaking the beast DK anytime soon but he is a better player than some around here seem to think IMO.

[wickerkat1212]

I thought JSN was gonna be a WR1 eventually. I don’t anymore, but think he’ll still be a serviceable WR2 by end of year/next year.

I was intrigued by the big bowl game, OSU WR U, and teammate quotes.

I don’t have any shares but wanted some. His price is still too high for me, so he’s a guy I’ll likely never own.

He actually slightly outplayed Lockett the last 7 games so he does look like he will be their WR2 this year. Don't see him overtaking the beast DK anytime soon but he is a better player than some around here seem to think IMO.

Agree. And I know we like to eject WRs that don't have elite performances their rookie year, but I expect he'll have a long career as a very good WR. Let's give him a few years. I think we're going to be happy with him, long-term.

[remedy29]

Caveat: I'm not sure if this is a change, but ...

A couple of people said JSN was the best on his college team, and suddenly it became an internet fact. But there was no actual fact to back up that opinion.

The problem with this, was the sources for this idea were from his teammates, Olave and Wilson, I believe. Both were currently in the NFL, and they were doing what they were doing, saying JSN was the best of the 3, to try and help get their college teammate drafter higher. Much like Waddle did when saying he preferred Mac to Tua, with Tua already being in the NFL. I'm sure Jaylen didn't even have to tell Tua what he was doing (but likely did, still).

wasn't aj brown bigging up elijah moore in a similar way?

[/quote]

AJ Brown said Moore was better than him and that Moore can do things he's never seen anybody else do...

In all seriousness though, Moore kills it in preseason hype. Not just with one tram, but this piss poor, pun intended, WR got preseason hype with 2 teams. And people bought it.

[FantasyFreak]

The problem with this, was the sources for this idea were from his teammates, Olave and Wilson, I believe. Both were currently in the NFL, and they were doing what they were doing, saying JSN was the best of the 3, to try and help get their college teammate drafter higher. Much like Waddle did when saying he preferred Mac to Tua, with Tua already being in the NFL. I'm sure Jaylen didn't even have to tell Tua what he was doing (but likely did, still).

wasn't aj brown bigging up elijah moore in a similar way?

AJ Brown said Moore was better than him and that Moore can do things he's never seen anybody else do...

In all seriousness though, Moore kills it in preseason hype. Not just with one tram, but this piss poor, pun intended, WR got preseason hype with 2 teams. And people bought it.
[/quote]

With Chubb on the mend from an injury, is Elijah going to get EVEN more work out of the backfield this year?

[FantasyFreak]

The problem with this, was the sources for this idea were from his teammates, Olave and Wilson, I believe. Both were currently in the NFL, and they were doing what they were doing, saying JSN was the best of the 3, to try and help get their college teammate drafter higher. Much like Waddle did when saying he preferred Mac to Tua, with Tua already being in the NFL. I'm sure Jaylen didn't even have to tell Tua what he was doing (but likely did, still).

wasn't aj brown bigging up elijah moore in a similar way?

AJ Brown said Moore was better than him and that Moore can do things he's never seen anybody else do...

In all seriousness though, Moore kills it in preseason hype. Not just with one tram, but this piss poor, pun intended, WR got preseason hype with 2 teams. And people bought it.
[/quote]

With Chubb on the mend from an injury, is Elijah going to get EVEN more work out of the backfield this year?

[wickerkat1212]

Where are you all seeing Kimani Vidal go in your drafts? I have one more league, 1 QB coming up, and wondering if I need to take him at the 3.01/3.02 spot or if he'll be there at 3.07 (my last pick). I've seen him creeping up boards. I have Gus Edwards in this league.

RB Premium 1 QB—he went 2.07.
In my Superflex leagues he went 3.08 and 3.10.
His ADP on MFL is 30 (3.06).

Thoughts?

[lukkynumber13]

Where are you all seeing Kimani Vidal go in your drafts? I have one more league, 1 QB coming up, and wondering if I need to take him at the 3.01/3.02 spot or if he'll be there at 3.07 (my last pick). I've seen him creeping up boards. I have Gus Edwards in this league.

RB Premium 1 QB—he went 2.07.
In my Superflex leagues he went 3.08 and 3.10.
His ADP on MFL is 30 (3.06).

Thoughts?

Yeah if you really want to get him - probably should trade up to the 3.01.

I’m not saying you SHOULD do that, but you probably need to if you want to ensure you get him.