Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread

[wickerkat1212]

AH found it. So, more OPINION than fact, but this is what I saw. https://twitter.com/YahooFantasy/status ... 3919985075 How do you imbed a Twitter video? This wasn't YouTube.

[mild]

Sorry, wasn't able to figure out how to imbed Tweets. Thanks. I wasn't stating as FACT just saying that I heard he was emerging as the WR1. But like we said, Rice is just trying to stay out of jail right now, or at least stop sabotaging his career, and beyond him there really isn't much competition. I could have sworn I saw somebody on KC say he was "emerging as the WR1" but I can't find the tweet.

(Hint: it doesn't exist)

Here's an idea: Let's not declare a new WR1 in KC in May.

We haven't had camp yet.
They haven't had the WR they took in the 1st round out there yet.
Basically nothing of consequence has happened.
Anything people are saying now is simply a projection, and perhaps even an accurate one.

R-E-L-A-X

[wickerkat1212]

Sorry, wasn't able to figure out how to imbed Tweets. Thanks. I wasn't stating as FACT just saying that I heard he was emerging as the WR1. But like we said, Rice is just trying to stay out of jail right now, or at least stop sabotaging his career, and beyond him there really isn't much competition. I could have sworn I saw somebody on KC say he was "emerging as the WR1" but I can't find the tweet.

(Hint: it doesn't exist)

Here's an idea: Let's not declare a new WR1 in KC in May.

We haven't had camp yet.
They haven't had the WR they took in the 1st round out there yet.
Basically nothing of consequence has happened.
Anything people are saying now is simply a projection, and perhaps even an accurate one.

R-E-L-A-X

Fair enough, all I said was people/media/etc were saying that he was EMERGING at the WR1. But I hear you. Here's another take I like:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k-JY8ZMvGqw

[tstafford]

I don't know if JSN's ADP dropping is a case of dynasty managers being impatient, or a case of the non-stop Internet hype raising expectations sky high. Or a combination of the two.

That's an interesting point. I've been chalking it up to impatience. It could definitely be, maybe in large part, an issue of people wanting to believe the hype. Case in point - so much was put on the quote from G.Willson that JSN was the best WR on the team when GW, Olave and JSN were all there. Seemed weird to me at the time that a large segment of the community wasn't taking that with a grain of salt.

Maybe the learning here is that we should have ignored G.Wilson and paid attention to the NFL. It meant something that he went 1.20. Teams didn't treat him as "elite". The dynasty community was out of step with the NFL. If that's right, then my concerns about Odunze may not be justified - he got the hype and the matching draft capital. My interest in this topic is less about JSN and more about how FF is changing. Trying to get learnings from this to apply to future rookie picks, trades, etc.

[TheTroll]

I don't know if JSN's ADP dropping is a case of dynasty managers being impatient, or a case of the non-stop Internet hype raising expectations sky high. Or a combination of the two.

That's an interesting point. I've been chalking it up to impatience. It could definitely be, maybe in large part, an issue of people wanting to believe the hype. Case in point - so much was put on the quote from G.Willson that JSN was the best WR on the team when GW, Olave and JSN were all there. Seemed weird to me at the time that a large segment of the community wasn't taking that with a grain of salt.

Maybe the learning here is that we should have ignored G.Wilson and paid attention to the NFL. It meant something that he went 1.20. Teams didn't treat him as "elite". The dynasty community was out of step with the NFL. If that's right, then my concerns about Odunze may not be justified - he got the hype and the matching draft capital. My interest in this topic is less about JSN and more about how FF is changing. Trying to get learnings from this to apply to future rookie picks, trades, etc.

Agreed. Impatience. We know DK is the king there but Lockett just keeps humming along too. With 2 good RBs, just not a lot of looks just yet for WR3. Now that Carroll is gone, it will be interesting to see how the offense scheme changes

[Anteaters]

I don't know if JSN's ADP dropping is a case of dynasty managers being impatient, or a case of the non-stop Internet hype raising expectations sky high. Or a combination of the two.

That's an interesting point. I've been chalking it up to impatience. It could definitely be, maybe in large part, an issue of people wanting to believe the hype. Case in point - so much was put on the quote from G.Willson that JSN was the best WR on the team when GW, Olave and JSN were all there. Seemed weird to me at the time that a large segment of the community wasn't taking that with a grain of salt.

Maybe the learning here is that we should have ignored G.Wilson and paid attention to the NFL. It meant something that he went 1.20. Teams didn't treat him as "elite". The dynasty community was out of step with the NFL. If that's right, then my concerns about Odunze may not be justified - he got the hype and the matching draft capital. My interest in this topic is less about JSN and more about how FF is changing. Trying to get learnings from this to apply to future rookie picks, trades, etc.

Caveat: I'm not sure if this is a change, but ...

I think the change (if there is one) is identifying when the hype is too much hype. If JSN turns out not to be a stud, his hype and trajectory could be a good case study.

Like you point out, there were tiny red flags. A couple of people said JSN was the best on his college team, and suddenly it became an internet fact. But there was no actual fact to back up that opinion. And the NFL did not draft JSN as an elite WR. He was chosen with the same draft capital as QJ/Flowers/Addison, none of whom we considered "elite" WR prospects. That should have told everyone something ... but the excuse making was already in pumping out at full steam ... and it hasn't stopped yet.

Regarding draft capital, I think, as a fantasy community at large, we have to lean harder into the same feeling we have when no QB is drafted early. When the first QB in 2020 was drafted at 1.20 (Pickett) the fantasy community agreed, "there are no elite QB prospects in this draft." We all knew there was a difference between the first rookie QB going in the first two or three picks, or going at 1.20. Yet, at least in the case of JSN, the consensus seems to miss that there is a big difference between Chase+Waddle going at 1.05+1.06 and Devonta+GW+Olave going at 1.09-1.11, and any WR going at 1.20-1.24. One range indicates the NFL considers the prospect an "elite" talent, while the other range is a Pickett-like what-the-heck swipe at the chance you strike something special.

If there is a change in the fantasy community coming that is long overdue, I think it is accepting that just because a rookie is the best guess at the WR position in any specific year, that doesn't not imply he is an elite prospect in the NFL. The dynasty community has to do a better job of realizing that. The NFL shows us they realize that by rotating certain positions up and down the first-round order year to year. One year, four QBs go in the first six picks, but another year, no QB goes till 1.20; one year, three WRs go in the top ten picks (2021), but another year the first WR does not go until 1.20.

Dynasty should pay more attention to what the NFL has already told us. Yes, maybe JSN should have still been the first dynasty WR drafted in rookie drafts. But his ADP in start-up drafts should have been much lower than it was in his rookie season, because the NFL had already signaled they did not consider him an elite prospect.

If anything, THAT was the cause of the biggest divide between the two dynasty camps when it came to JSN. One side believed the hype and (his one year of) impressive college stats more they believed what the NFL told us.

[tstafford]

Well said Ant.

[Kurt G.O.A.T.]

Anybody expecting jsn to have big numbers his rookie season had rocks in their heads. The biggest hit to his stock was the seagulls signing lockett again. So all of us that thought they would let lockett go after the season had rocks in our heads.

[TheTroll]

I don't know if JSN's ADP dropping is a case of dynasty managers being impatient, or a case of the non-stop Internet hype raising expectations sky high. Or a combination of the two.

That's an interesting point. I've been chalking it up to impatience. It could definitely be, maybe in large part, an issue of people wanting to believe the hype. Case in point - so much was put on the quote from G.Willson that JSN was the best WR on the team when GW, Olave and JSN were all there. Seemed weird to me at the time that a large segment of the community wasn't taking that with a grain of salt.

Maybe the learning here is that we should have ignored G.Wilson and paid attention to the NFL. It meant something that he went 1.20. Teams didn't treat him as "elite". The dynasty community was out of step with the NFL. If that's right, then my concerns about Odunze may not be justified - he got the hype and the matching draft capital. My interest in this topic is less about JSN and more about how FF is changing. Trying to get learnings from this to apply to future rookie picks, trades, etc.

Agreed. Impatience. We know DK is the king there but Lockett just keeps humming along too. With 2 good RBs too, just not a lot of looks just yet for WR3. Now that Carroll is gone, it will be interesting to see how the offense scheme changes

[FantasyFreak]

I don't know if JSN's ADP dropping is a case of dynasty managers being impatient, or a case of the non-stop Internet hype raising expectations sky high. Or a combination of the two.

That's an interesting point. I've been chalking it up to impatience. It could definitely be, maybe in large part, an issue of people wanting to believe the hype. Case in point - so much was put on the quote from G.Willson that JSN was the best WR on the team when GW, Olave and JSN were all there. Seemed weird to me at the time that a large segment of the community wasn't taking that with a grain of salt.

Maybe the learning here is that we should have ignored G.Wilson and paid attention to the NFL. It meant something that he went 1.20. Teams didn't treat him as "elite". The dynasty community was out of step with the NFL. If that's right, then my concerns about Odunze may not be justified - he got the hype and the matching draft capital. My interest in this topic is less about JSN and more about how FF is changing. Trying to get learnings from this to apply to future rookie picks, trades, etc.

Caveat: I'm not sure if this is a change, but ...

A couple of people said JSN was the best on his college team, and suddenly it became an internet fact. But there was no actual fact to back up that opinion.

The problem with this, was the sources for this idea were from his teammates, Olave and Wilson, I believe. Both were currently in the NFL, and they were doing what they were doing, saying JSN was the best of the 3, to try and help get their college teammate drafter higher. Much like Waddle did when saying he preferred Mac to Tua, with Tua already being in the NFL. I'm sure Jaylen didn't even have to tell Tua what he was doing (but likely did, still).

[Jigga94]

Yeah I never bought into JSN being the best of that trio. Was just a fluff piece

[Cameron Giles]

I don't know if JSN's ADP dropping is a case of dynasty managers being impatient, or a case of the non-stop Internet hype raising expectations sky high. Or a combination of the two.

That's an interesting point. I've been chalking it up to impatience. It could definitely be, maybe in large part, an issue of people wanting to believe the hype. Case in point - so much was put on the quote from G.Willson that JSN was the best WR on the team when GW, Olave and JSN were all there. Seemed weird to me at the time that a large segment of the community wasn't taking that with a grain of salt.

Maybe the learning here is that we should have ignored G.Wilson and paid attention to the NFL. It meant something that he went 1.20. Teams didn't treat him as "elite". The dynasty community was out of step with the NFL. If that's right, then my concerns about Odunze may not be justified - he got the hype and the matching draft capital. My interest in this topic is less about JSN and more about how FF is changing. Trying to get learnings from this to apply to future rookie picks, trades, etc.

Agreed. Impatience. We know DK is the king there but Lockett just keeps humming along too. With 2 good RBs, just not a lot of looks just yet for WR3. Now that Carroll is gone, it will be interesting to see how the offense scheme changes

Someone said it in another thread, but this stock market approach to dynasty is really being felt. Yes, it's easier for WRs to produce immediately than it was many years ago, but I think it's a mistake to not allow players time after their rookie season to adapt and develop. Everything isn't always going to be instant.

To me, it really depends on the reasons why a player is not producing. And, the roadblocks to JSN producing as a rookie were apparent from Day 1 and that didn't change, yet he's still penalized for it like he's not good at football.

[blemly]

I don't know if JSN's ADP dropping is a case of dynasty managers being impatient, or a case of the non-stop Internet hype raising expectations sky high. Or a combination of the two.

That's an interesting point. I've been chalking it up to impatience. It could definitely be, maybe in large part, an issue of people wanting to believe the hype. Case in point - so much was put on the quote from G.Willson that JSN was the best WR on the team when GW, Olave and JSN were all there. Seemed weird to me at the time that a large segment of the community wasn't taking that with a grain of salt.

Maybe the learning here is that we should have ignored G.Wilson and paid attention to the NFL. It meant something that he went 1.20. Teams didn't treat him as "elite". The dynasty community was out of step with the NFL. If that's right, then my concerns about Odunze may not be justified - he got the hype and the matching draft capital. My interest in this topic is less about JSN and more about how FF is changing. Trying to get learnings from this to apply to future rookie picks, trades, etc.

Caveat: I'm not sure if this is a change, but ...

I think the change (if there is one) is identifying when the hype is too much hype. If JSN turns out not to be a stud, his hype and trajectory could be a good case study.

Like you point out, there were tiny red flags. A couple of people said JSN was the best on his college team, and suddenly it became an internet fact. But there was no actual fact to back up that opinion. And the NFL did not draft JSN as an elite WR. He was chosen with the same draft capital as QJ/Flowers/Addison, none of whom we considered "elite" WR prospects. That should have told everyone something ... but the excuse making was already in pumping out at full steam ... and it hasn't stopped yet.

Regarding draft capital, I think, as a fantasy community at large, we have to lean harder into the same feeling we have when no QB is drafted early. When the first QB in 2020 was drafted at 1.20 (Pickett) the fantasy community agreed, "there are no elite QB prospects in this draft." We all knew there was a difference between the first rookie QB going in the first two or three picks, or going at 1.20. Yet, at least in the case of JSN, the consensus seems to miss that there is a big difference between Chase+Waddle going at 1.05+1.06 and Devonta+GW+Olave going at 1.09-1.11, and any WR going at 1.20-1.24. One range indicates the NFL considers the prospect an "elite" talent, while the other range is a Pickett-like what-the-heck swipe at the chance you strike something special.

If there is a change in the fantasy community coming that is long overdue, I think it is accepting that just because a rookie is the best guess at the WR position in any specific year, that doesn't not imply he is an elite prospect in the NFL. The dynasty community has to do a better job of realizing that. The NFL shows us they realize that by rotating certain positions up and down the first-round order year to year. One year, four QBs go in the first six picks, but another year, no QB goes till 1.20; one year, three WRs go in the top ten picks (2021), but another year the first WR does not go until 1.20.

Dynasty should pay more attention to what the NFL has already told us. Yes, maybe JSN should have still been the first dynasty WR drafted in rookie drafts. But his ADP in start-up drafts should have been much lower than it was in his rookie season, because the NFL had already signaled they did not consider him an elite prospect.

If anything, THAT was the cause of the biggest divide between the two dynasty camps when it came to JSN. One side believed the hype and (his one year of) impressive college stats more they believed what the NFL told us.

Really well said, especially the distinction between rookie and startup ADP. Looking back though, I don’t think his rookie draft position would have changed (his start up absolutely should have). He was almost always behind AR, Young, and Stroud (in SF), Bijan, and Gibbs. And he almost always went ahead of the other WRs, which I think was still fine process.

[Bronco Billy]

Maybe the learning here is that we should have ignored G.Wilson and paid attention to the NFL. It meant something that he went 1.20. Teams didn't treat him as "elite". The dynasty community was out of step with the NFL. If that's right, then my concerns about Odunze may not be justified - he got the hype and the matching draft capital. My interest in this topic is less about JSN and more about how FF is changing. Trying to get learnings from this to apply to future rookie picks, trades, etc.

Curious what makes you think Wilson isn’t elite.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Maybe the learning here is that we should have ignored G.Wilson and paid attention to the NFL. It meant something that he went 1.20. Teams didn't treat him as "elite". The dynasty community was out of step with the NFL. If that's right, then my concerns about Odunze may not be justified - he got the hype and the matching draft capital. My interest in this topic is less about JSN and more about how FF is changing. Trying to get learnings from this to apply to future rookie picks, trades, etc.

Curious what makes you think Wilson isn’t elite.

He’s saying we shouldn’t assume JSN is elite because of what Wilson said.